Day: July 12, 2026
#Putin #UkraineWar #Russia
Putin’s War: Strategic Loss, Ongoing Conflict share.gemini.google/LLQH3wl3…
It certainly seems that way from a strategic perspective, and James Jay Carafano has been highly vocal about exactly this. In his recent analysis—including his July 2026 piece point-blank titled “The War in Ukraine Is Already Over — and Putin Lost”—Carafano argues that while the fighting is still grinding on, Russia has already lost the war in every way that truly matters.
Putin’s War: Strategic Loss, Ongoing Conflict share.gemini.google/LLQH3wl3…
It certainly seems that way from a strategic perspective, and James Jay Carafano has been highly vocal about exactly this. In his recent analysis—including his July 2026 piece point-blank titled “The War in Ukraine Is Already Over — and Putin Lost”—Carafano argues that while the fighting is still grinding on, Russia has already lost the war in every way that truly matters.
His assessment isn’t based on a neat, textbook ending where one side surrenders, but on a cold look at Putin’s original objectives versus the actual outcomes.
Here is a breakdown of why Carafano and other security experts assess that Putin has fundamentally lost:
Total Failure of Primary Objectives: Putin’s goals were to conquer and dissolve Ukraine as a sovereign state and to fracture NATO. He failed on both fronts. Ukraine will emerge from this as a free, independent nation with a growing defense industrial base, and NATO is larger, more unified, and more heavily armed than it has been in decades.
A Devastating Pyrrhic Victory: Russia has managed to hold onto some territory, but Carafano describes these as “marginal territorial gains” achieved at an apocalyptic cost. To get those gains, Putin essentially destroyed his professional army, forced a massive brain drain of fleeing citizens, and crippled the Russian economy.
Global Pariah Status: Rather than re-establishing the Russian Empire as a global superpower, Putin has isolated Moscow. Russia is now heavily sanctioned, internationally condemned, and increasingly forced into subservient partnerships with countries like Iran, North Korea, and China just to keep its war machine running.
The Reality on the Ground
Carafano is careful to note that “winning and losing” in real life isn’t like a baseball game where everyone goes home when the score is tallied. While Putin’s strategic defeat is cemented, the tactical reality is still a bloody, protracted mess.
Russia lacks the capacity to achieve its maximalist goals, but it still has the sheer mass to sustain a grinding war of attrition and hold onto occupied territory. Because of this, experts like Carafano emphasize that the focus now must shift toward securing a ceasefire that ends the humanitarian bleeding, forces realistic concessions, and ensures Ukraine is fortified enough to deter Russia permanently in the future.
–
Putin has lost his reckless war against Ukraine, or so it seems. See also: security expert James Jay Carafano
share.google/aimode/jnu5LU0m…
Security expert James Jay Carafano recently argued that the war in Ukraine is already strategically over, and Vladimir Putin has lost. Even though the active fighting on the ground grinds on, Carafano points out that Russia has passed its “culminating point” and cannot reverse several major geopolitical realities. [1]
According to Carafano’s assessment on 19FortyFive, the conflict has permanently reshaped security in a way that defeats Moscow’s original strategic goals: [1]
A Sovereign Ukraine: Ukraine remains an independent, highly mobilized, and exceptionally well-armed nation. [1, 2]
An Intact NATO: The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) remains fully intact and unified, directly defying Putin’s long-term goal to weaken the alliance. [1, 3]
A Vulnerable Russian Homeland: The conflict has evolved to leave Russia’s own territory permanently vulnerable to deep strategic strikes. [1]
While Carafano notes that the war may still drag on without a clean or immediate diplomatic resolution, the structural and economic toll on Russia is severe. The combination of massive manpower drains, international sanctions, domestic economic disruption, and political isolation means that Putin’s regime is operating from a permanently weakened global position. [4, 5]
[1] 19fortyfive.com
[2] gisreportsonline.com
[3] heritage.org
[4] heritage.org
[5] audacy.com
–
Pic.: Trump ‘Holds All The Cards’ In Dealing With Iran, Says Heritage Foundation’s James Jay Carafano
And the same with Ukraine, I would add.
rferl.org/a/trump-iran-negot…
#Putin #UkraineWar #Russia
Putin’s War: Strategic Loss, Ongoing Conflict share.gemini.google/LLQH3wl3…
It certainly seems that way from a strategic perspective, and James Jay Carafano has been highly vocal about exactly this. In his recent analysis—including his July 2026 piece point-blank titled “The War in Ukraine Is Already Over — and Putin Lost”—Carafano argues that while the fighting is still grinding on, Russia has already lost the war in every way that truly matters.
Putin’s War: Strategic Loss, Ongoing Conflict share.gemini.google/LLQH3wl3…
It certainly seems that way from a strategic perspective, and James Jay Carafano has been highly vocal about exactly this. In his recent analysis—including his July 2026 piece point-blank titled “The War in Ukraine Is Already Over — and Putin Lost”—Carafano argues that while the fighting is still grinding on, Russia has already lost the war in every way that truly matters.
His assessment isn’t based on a neat, textbook ending where one side surrenders, but on a cold look at Putin’s original objectives versus the actual outcomes.
Here is a breakdown of why Carafano and other security experts assess that Putin has fundamentally lost:
Total Failure of Primary Objectives: Putin’s goals were to conquer and dissolve Ukraine as a sovereign state and to fracture NATO. He failed on both fronts. Ukraine will emerge from this as a free, independent nation with a growing defense industrial base, and NATO is larger, more unified, and more heavily armed than it has been in decades.
A Devastating Pyrrhic Victory: Russia has managed to hold onto some territory, but Carafano describes these as “marginal territorial gains” achieved at an apocalyptic cost. To get those gains, Putin essentially destroyed his professional army, forced a massive brain drain of fleeing citizens, and crippled the Russian economy.
Global Pariah Status: Rather than re-establishing the Russian Empire as a global superpower, Putin has isolated Moscow. Russia is now heavily sanctioned, internationally condemned, and increasingly forced into subservient partnerships with countries like Iran, North Korea, and China just to keep its war machine running.
The Reality on the Ground
Carafano is careful to note that “winning and losing” in real life isn’t like a baseball game where everyone goes home when the score is tallied. While Putin’s strategic defeat is cemented, the tactical reality is still a bloody, protracted mess.
Russia lacks the capacity to achieve its maximalist goals, but it still has the sheer mass to sustain a grinding war of attrition and hold onto occupied territory. Because of this, experts like Carafano emphasize that the focus now must shift toward securing a ceasefire that ends the humanitarian bleeding, forces realistic concessions, and ensures Ukraine is fortified enough to deter Russia permanently in the future.
–
Putin has lost his reckless war against Ukraine, or so it seems. See also: security expert James Jay Carafano
share.google/aimode/jnu5LU0m…
Security expert James Jay Carafano recently argued that the war in Ukraine is already strategically over, and Vladimir Putin has lost. Even though the active fighting on the ground grinds on, Carafano points out that Russia has passed its “culminating point” and cannot reverse several major geopolitical realities. [1]
According to Carafano’s assessment on 19FortyFive, the conflict has permanently reshaped security in a way that defeats Moscow’s original strategic goals: [1]
A Sovereign Ukraine: Ukraine remains an independent, highly mobilized, and exceptionally well-armed nation. [1, 2]
An Intact NATO: The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) remains fully intact and unified, directly defying Putin’s long-term goal to weaken the alliance. [1, 3]
A Vulnerable Russian Homeland: The conflict has evolved to leave Russia’s own territory permanently vulnerable to deep strategic strikes. [1]
While Carafano notes that the war may still drag on without a clean or immediate diplomatic resolution, the structural and economic toll on Russia is severe. The combination of massive manpower drains, international sanctions, domestic economic disruption, and political isolation means that Putin’s regime is operating from a permanently weakened global position. [4, 5]
[1] 19fortyfive.com
[2] gisreportsonline.com
[3] heritage.org
[4] heritage.org
[5] audacy.com
–
Pic.: Trump ‘Holds All The Cards’ In Dealing With Iran, Says Heritage Foundation’s James Jay Carafano
And the same with Ukraine, I would add.
rferl.org/a/trump-iran-negot…
#CIA #DIA #Mossad
Carafano: Putin lost. Now.
x.com/mikenov/status/2076345…Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) #Putin #UkraineWar #Russia
Putin’s War: Strategic Loss, Ongoing Conflict share.gemini.google/LLQH3wl3…
Putin has lost his reckless war against Ukraine, or so it seems. See also: security expert James Jay Carafano
share.google/aimode/jnu5LU0m…
Pic.: Trump ‘Holds All The Cards’ In Dealing With Iran, Says Heritage Foundation’s James Jay Carafano
And the same with Ukraine, I would add.
rferl.org/a/trump-iran-negot…— https://x.com/mikenov/status/2076345227934073205
Carafano: Putin lost. Now.
x.com/mikenov/status/2076345…Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) #Putin #UkraineWar #Russia
Putin’s War: Strategic Loss, Ongoing Conflict share.gemini.google/LLQH3wl3…
Putin has lost his reckless war against Ukraine, or so it seems. See also: security expert James Jay Carafano
share.google/aimode/jnu5LU0m…
Pic.: Trump ‘Holds All The Cards’ In Dealing With Iran, Says Heritage Foundation’s James Jay Carafano
And the same with Ukraine, I would add.
rferl.org/a/trump-iran-negot…— https://x.com/mikenov/status/2076345227934073205
#CIA #DIA #Mossad
Carafano: Putin lost. Now.
x.com/mikenov/status/2076345…Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) #Putin #UkraineWar #Russia
Putin’s War: Strategic Loss, Ongoing Conflict share.gemini.google/LLQH3wl3…
Putin has lost his reckless war against Ukraine, or so it seems. See also: security expert James Jay Carafano
share.google/aimode/jnu5LU0m…
Pic.: Trump ‘Holds All The Cards’ In Dealing With Iran, Says Heritage Foundation’s James Jay Carafano
And the same with Ukraine, I would add.
rferl.org/a/trump-iran-negot…— https://x.com/mikenov/status/2076345227934073205
Carafano: Putin lost. Now.
x.com/mikenov/status/2076345…Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) #Putin #UkraineWar #Russia
Putin’s War: Strategic Loss, Ongoing Conflict share.gemini.google/LLQH3wl3…
Putin has lost his reckless war against Ukraine, or so it seems. See also: security expert James Jay Carafano
share.google/aimode/jnu5LU0m…
Pic.: Trump ‘Holds All The Cards’ In Dealing With Iran, Says Heritage Foundation’s James Jay Carafano
And the same with Ukraine, I would add.
rferl.org/a/trump-iran-negot…— https://x.com/mikenov/status/2076345227934073205
#Putin #UkraineWar #Russia
Putin’s War: Strategic Loss, Ongoing Conflict share.gemini.google/LLQH3wl3…
Putin has lost his reckless war against Ukraine, or so it seems. See also: security expert James Jay Carafano
share.google/aimode/jnu5LU0m…
Pic.: Trump ‘Holds All The Cards’ In Dealing With Iran, Says Heritage Foundation’s James Jay Carafano
And the same with Ukraine, I would add.
rferl.org/a/trump-iran-negot…
Putin’s War: Strategic Loss, Ongoing Conflict share.gemini.google/LLQH3wl3…
Putin has lost his reckless war against Ukraine, or so it seems. See also: security expert James Jay Carafano
share.google/aimode/jnu5LU0m…
Pic.: Trump ‘Holds All The Cards’ In Dealing With Iran, Says Heritage Foundation’s James Jay Carafano
And the same with Ukraine, I would add.
rferl.org/a/trump-iran-negot…
Authorities have been assessing the damage and working to mitigate the “serious” impact in Telavi, the central city in Georgia’s eastern Kakheti region, after the local Telaviskhevi river overflowed following heavy rain during the early hours of July 12, flooding streets and residential areas. No casualties or injuries have been reported.
Videos shared by locals show the swollen and muddy river flowing through streets beyond its banks, flooding nearby streets and neighborhoods. The images and footage from the area also show flooded businesses and the basements and ground floors of apartment buildings.
“The disaster is indeed of an unprecedented scale,” Irakli Kadagishvili, a ruling Georgian Dream lawmaker who arrived at the scene, told TV Pirveli. “The city infrastructure has been very seriously damaged.”
Authorities have convened a disaster response group to assess the damage and coordinate the response, while pledging to carry out flood prevention works to reduce the risk of similar disasters in the future. Local officials have also reported electricity and natural gas outages. Authorities said around a hundred pieces of equipment have been deployed to handle the effects.
Revaz Sokhadze, Georgian Dream infrastructure minister, pledged that authorities “will do everything to eliminate the effects of the disaster as quickly as possible, while simultaneously planning preventive measures to help reduce similar risks in the future.”
Locals have reported horrifying roars and sights during the flood.
“I have lived here for so many years and never seen anything like this,” a local woman told TV Pirveli. The river “carried torn trees, soil, stones, it was terrible.”
The disaster has sparked questions and criticism over whether it could have been prevented, with critics circulating a 2020 report by Formula TV in which hydrologists from the Caucasus Environmental NGO Network (CENN) warned that Telavi residents were “living on a mine” unless issues with special debris-control dams, built after a similar disaster in 1977 and intended to protect the city from flooding, were addressed.
They also pointed to risks associated with the narrowing of the riverbed closer to the city and the construction of businesses along the riverbed in Telavi.
Officials, however, dismissed the criticism, with Infrastructure Minister Revaz Sokhadze arguing that “natural disasters happen in every country” and accusing critics of “taking advantage” of the disaster. Sokhadze said the dams were last renovated in 2022 and “fulfilled their function” during the disaster, but promised to have “an adequate” response if there are any illegal or risky constructions near the river.
Commenting on the matter, GD MP Irakli Kadagishvili suggested that a small bridge over the Telaviskhevi River had obstructed the flow and caused the flooding, adding that the riverbed needed to be “completely redesigned.”
Also Read:
- 16/03/2026 – Over 40 Families Evacuated as Ongoing Landslide Shakes Western Georgian Village
- 25/02/2025 – Snowstorm Hits Western Georgia, Authorities Blamed for Botched Emergency Response
- 05/08/2024 – Institute of Earth Sciences: Early Warning System Could Have Averted Shovi Landslide Disaster
- 16/06/2015 – Tbilisi Flood Death Toll Rises to 19