Opinion on Armenia’s domestic political situation
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan periodically publishes video messages on social media addressing Samvel Karapetyan, the leader of the “Strong Armenia” party.
In these indirect exchanges with the Russian businessman and dollar billionaire, who seeks the post of Armenia’s prime minister, Pashinyan calls him a “strong guy” — echoing the party’s name. He mostly uses ironic jabs aimed at Karapetyan.
The incumbent prime minister also urges his opponent to respond on social media in a live broadcast. He even stresses that Karapetyan can address the public despite being under house arrest. Authorities arrested him in June 2025 on charges of calling for a seizure of power. Since the beginning of this year, he has stayed at home, and officials have lifted restrictions on his public appearances.
“Strong guy, you have both the internet and a phone. Say a few words to the people live. Or fine, if you cannot say two words on your own, read from start to finish the text you published. If you manage to read it, I will acknowledge that you are a strong guy,” Pashinyan said in a recent video message.
Karapetyan himself did not respond. Instead, his nephew and member of the “Strong Armenia” political council, Narek Karapetyan, replied:
“Man in a top hat, do not be afraid of Karapetyan. He will not harm you. He will come out, and he will have something to say to you.”
Pashinyan responded to the nephew’s remarks in another video. The prime minister said he fears that by the end of the year Karapetyan could turn “from a billionaire into a homeless man”.
Political analyst Robert Gevondyan described Pashinyan’s statement as a “transparent hint” in an interview with JAMnews.
“Samvel Karapetyan has to act on Russia’s instructions. Otherwise, they will take away his assets in Russia. This has happened many times to businessmen who went against the Kremlin’s will and refused to follow Moscow’s orders,” he said.
The party also nominated him for the post of prime minister. However, Armenia’s constitution does not allow him to hold the position. He holds citizenship not only of Armenia, but also of two other countries — Russia and Cyprus.
Pashinyan’s position and political analyst Robert Ghevondyan’s comment on Armenia’s pre-election situation.
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“They have billions in assets in Russia and Belarus”: the context behind Pashinyan’s remarks
On 19 March, during his weekly briefing, Armenia’s prime minister said opposition forces planning to take part in the 7 June parliamentary elections promote a “revision of the peace” established with Azerbaijan. He argued that these forces are pushing society towards war. He also explained why he believes they are doing so:
“War will bring them the following: they will run a forward post, not a state. Time has shown that this benefits them financially.”
According to Pashinyan, three political forces are advancing this “revision of peace” line. He said they hold “billions of dollars in assets in Russia and Belarus”.
He appeared to be referring to:
- the leader of the “Strong Armenia” party, Samvel Karapetyan,
- former Armenian president and leader of the “Armenia” bloc, Robert Kocharyan,
- and the leader of the “Prosperous Armenia” party, Gagik Tsarukyan, a major Armenian businessman who also operates actively in Belarus.
“They were told: if you want to keep these assets, work, sweat, run, do 30 push-ups. They will not manage it,” the prime minister said.
Comment
Political analyst Robert Ghevondyan believes Armenia’s political actors can run a higher-quality election campaign.
“However, the segment of the electorate that wants to see a higher level of political culture and aspires to it has largely already made its choice. Undecided voters are more likely to belong to the segment that is interested in such scandal-driven, low-grade displays,” he told JAMnews.
He believes the current contest targets voters who are drawn to “scandals and this level of political culture”.
Asked whether Samvel Karapetyan’s silence can be explained by a lack of Armenian language skills — something Prime Minister Pashinyan often hints at — Ghevondyan said:
“I have never heard Karapetyan speak publicly, including in Russian. I have seen separate clips where he spoke both Armenian and Russian. But that was clearly at the level of informal speech. It was everyday communication. Speaking like that in public would damage his reputation. I assume that is why he does not appear publicly. But this is only my assumption.”
Commenting on Pashinyan’s claim that Karapetyan could become “a homeless man” by the end of the year, he said Karapetyan would already have gone bankrupt if he had refused to follow the Kremlin’s will.
Robert Ghevondyan believes that even if the businessman did not receive a direct order from Russia to start political activity in Armenia, his actions have at least received encouragement:
“Samvel Karapetyan spends in Armenia money he earned in Russia. If his actions did not match the Kremlin’s preferences, he would not be able to do anything. Karapetyan spends huge sums of money, from renting campaign buses that drive around the city with his photo to certain activities in the media sphere. If officials in Russia did not agree with this, he would not be able to spend this money. They would not allow him to take it out of Russia.”
The analyst says there are many known cases where wealthy individuals from Georgia, Moldova and other post-Soviet countries went bankrupt “with a light touch” from Moscow.
He believes Samvel Karapetyan’s “Strong Armenia” party has chosen to form alliances even with little-known political groups in order to present itself as a bloc rather than a single party:
“In this way, they aim to position themselves in the political field as a pro-Russian force and attract all actors who can play any role in Armenia’s political life. If this were possible, and if these forces applied, they would agree and unite with them. First of all, this concerns the political forces of Robert Kocharyan and Gagik Tsarukyan, who have a chance of entering parliament after the upcoming elections.”
In this context, the political analyst does not rule out that Karapetyan may also agree to form an alliance with political groups led by former ombudsman Arman Tatoyan and former ambassador-at-large Edmon Marukyan. However, so far none of these groups has shown “such interest”.
Opinion on Armenia’s domestic political situation