“Holding the [European Political Community] summit in Yerevan shows that European leaders have confidence in Nikol Pashinyan,” said Valeri Chechelashvili, head of geopolitical studies at the Centre for Strategic Analysis and a former Georgian ambassador to Ukraine.
However, Chechelashvili said he did not believe Armenia could fully replace Georgia in the region. He added that Armenia understood its path towards Europe would be faster alongside Georgia.
The analyst also commented on the meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze during the summit. He said the talks could not have taken place without the approval of Bidzina Ivanishvili, honorary chairman of the ruling Georgian Dream party.
According to Valeri Chechelashvili, Ivanishvili understands that Russia is weakening and losing influence, and that Georgia’s leadership is preparing to adjust its political course.
Valeri Chechelashvili:
“Armenia cannot fully replace Georgia in the region, because geography and geopolitics cannot be ignored — and the Armenians themselves understand this better than anyone. Just remember Nikol Pashinyan’s speech at the European Parliament, where he effectively acted as an advocate for Georgia in its relations with the European Union.
“Armenia clearly understands that it will move towards Europe much faster together with Georgia than without it.
“And Georgia understands this too. We will be far more successful in the process of European integration if we move forward hand in hand. The difference is that Armenia is currently showing courage, political vision and determination, while our government — and especially the speaker of parliament — is unfortunately intensifying anti-European rhetoric. Naturally, Europe is watching this very closely.”
“I have to admit, I did not expect the meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Irakli Kobakhidze to take place. It came as a very pleasant surprise to me. But when I think about it, I come to several conclusions.
“It is clear why Zelensky wanted the meeting. He is the president of a country at war, and he is interested in maintaining relations with all potential partners. Ukraine and Georgia also share centuries-old ties and a special kind of connection.
“What is far more interesting is why the Georgian side agreed to the meeting and, as Mr Kobakhidze himself admitted, agreed immediately.
“First of all, I do not think Kobakhidze would have made such a decision on his own. Most likely, the decision was made in Tbilisi. And who would he have called from Yerevan? Formally, Georgia’s top official is the prime minister — meaning Kobakhidze himself. But he would not have been able to make a strategic decision of this scale independently. Of course, he called Bidzina Ivanishvili, and Ivanishvili gave his approval.”
“This leads me to another conclusion: within Georgian Dream there has been a reassessment of Russia’s role and the extent of its potential influence over Georgia and the South Caucasus.
“I think people within Georgian Dream already understand this very well — and probably Mr Bidzina Ivanishvili more than anyone else. If anyone has access to first-hand information, including from oligarchic circles, it is him. They understand that Russia is weakening, its influence is declining and the time has come to restructure foreign policy and make certain political adjustments.
“If this is indeed the case, then I believe we will soon see a Ukrainian ambassador returning to Tbilisi and a Georgian ambassador returning to Kyiv. Other steps could follow after that.”
Tbilisi view on Yerevan summit