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With a number of credible reports of foreign fighters engaged in the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh on behalf of Azerbaijan, a number of journalists and analysts have looked to one of the world’s most infamous private mercenary companies (PMC), Russia’s Wagner PMC, as a potential actor in the conflict. However, there has not been any firm evidence showing their arrival or involvement in the war which has rocked the South Caucasus since late September. In the search for potential evidence of Wagner’s involvement into the conflict, many have looked to Reverse Side of the Medal (RSOTM), one of the most public channels of communication used by fighters from Russia’s private military companies fighters, especially Wagner and those close to them.

This group operates a Telegram channel, along with pages on Instagram, YouTube, and VKontakte (VK). The group’s most prominent administrator is Maksim Fomin, writing under the pseudonym “Vladlen Tatarsky” (taken from a novel by popular Russian writer Viktor Pelevin). Fomin previously fought in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine for the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR). Over the past week, this channel has shared a number of photographs alluding to the arrival of Russian mercenaries — with the Wagner group being the obvious candidate — to Nagorno-Karabakh to assist Armenian forces in their ongoing conflict with Azerbaijan.

Since clashes broke out in Nagorno-Karabakh on September 27, they have escalated into a fully-fledged war. Azerbaijani forces have attempted to advance into the region, which is governed by Karabakh Armenians as an unrecognised state with the support of neighbouring Armenia. Turkey has staunchly sided with Azerbaijan. Although Armenia is a member of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), Moscow is widely understood to have kept some distance from its ally.

In that context, it is understandable that some might have suspicions of Russian boots on the ground. RSOTM has kept them guessing: the channel published a song featuring the name of Nagorno-Karabakh’s capital city Stepanakert and two images: one with a plane, another with a mountainous landscape. The obvious implication was that Wagner fighters (or another Russian private military company) were arriving in Armenia in order to travel to the front lines in Nagorno-Karabakh.

However, further analysis of the images reveal that these posts are nothing but an elaborate troll by the RSOTM admins.

The Jet

On October 6, RSOTM published a photo of men in camouflage and a plane, captioned “Boarding continues once more”.

The channel also published an old song about the first Nagorno-Karabakh War (1988-1994) by Alexander Korenyugin, a Russian military singer:

“Boarding continues once more,

We know no rest at work.

Stepanakert is burning in the fire of war again,

And once more we fly on a plane”.

With an explicit hint provided, Twitter users assumed that the photo may actually show Russian government-owned IL-96-300 which landed in the Armenian capital of Yerevan on October 5, the day before these posts were made. It was unclear who was on board, and the Armenian Prime Minister’s Spokesperson Mane Gevorgyan told Hetq, an independent investigative publication, that she didn’t know anything about the plane. 

The photo published by RSOTM did not, however, show the IL-96-300 that had arrived in Armenia. A glance at the post actually reveals that this was an old photo forwarded from the same channel on January 14, 2020.  

Russian media soon reported that officials of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) had been on board the IL-96-300. A summit of this economic union, which includes Armenia and several other post-Soviet states, is scheduled in Yerevan on October 9.  On October 6, the RSOTM admins revelled in the fact that a number of analysts, including “the Turkish Ministry of Defence and California University,  wrote about how this recycled photograph of a plane signaled the arrival of Wagner in Armenia.”

The Mountain Landscape

Another image published by RSOTM shortly after that of the plane showed a mountainous terrain and was captioned “Good morning, freelancers”.

These RSOTM posts came on the same day that the Director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service Sergey Naryshkin expressed his concerns over alleged mercenaries in Nagorno-Karabakh.

An initial attempt at geolocation using military outposts near Stepanakert as vantage points revealed a mountainous terrain that actually looked quite similar to the RSOTM photograph. As seen in a Google Earth comparison of a view of a mountain from a missile base near the village of Shosh (coordinates: 39.754396, 46.793617), the general terrain and some features of the vegetation almost match up — if you squint a little.

Further investigation by open-source analyst, @obretix, however, led to a hill in the West of Syria (coordinates: 35.690092, 36.204369), where Wagner mercenaries have previously operated. While the mountain east of Stepanakert did vaguely resemble the RSOTM photograph, this landscape in Syria actually matched with more numerous details, such as the amount of visible vegetation.

Therefore, it can safely be said that neither of the two photos posted by RSOTM on October 6 were taken in Nagorno-Karabakh, or even the South Caucasus. 

Don’t Get Fooled Again

As mentioned earlier, it is important to bear in mind that Russia has remained somewhat detached from the ongoing war in Karabakh — at least for the time being. Moscow has traditionally been the main mediator between the two countries, as it also maintains friendly relations with Azerbaijan.

While there could well be military assistance on its way from Russia to Armenia, either in an explicit or covert (via Wagner) form, the Reverse Side of the Medal Telegram channel is not the breaking news source that has revealed it.

Update: The identity of “Vladlen Tatarsky” was mistakenly typed as Mikhail, instead of Maksim, Fomin. We have corrected this.

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at political infighting following the Wagner Group revolt, a deadly missile strike in Ukraine, and the French president’s rare rebuke of racist policing.

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at political infighting following the Wagner Group revolt, a deadly missile strike in Ukraine, and the French president’s rare rebuke of racist policing.

Russia’s paramilitary Wagner Group faces an uncertain future after Saturday’s failed insurrection and the expulsion of the mercenary organization’s top leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, to Belarus on Tuesday. But one thing is clear: To the outside world, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power has started to look unsteady.

According to U.S. officials, a senior Russian military leader had advance knowledge of Prigozhin’s rebellion against Putin. Gen. Sergey Surovikin, a former top Russian commander in Ukraine, helped Prigozhin plan last weekend’s siege of Rostov-on-Don and march toward Moscow. Surovikin was replaced in January but maintained influence over Russia’s war operations. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied the allegations on Wednesday, saying unity remains strong within Russia’s military.

If Surovikin or any other Russian commanders assisted Prigozhin, then Putin could face a bigger split within his ranks than previously thought—especially after Prigozhin called for the resignations of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov. In this way, Putin’s very authority and grip on power could be threatened.

Despite increasing concerns over political infighting, the Kremlin dropped criminal charges against Prigozhin for “armed mutiny” on Tuesday, just as the Wagner leader arrived in Belarus, where he will remain in exile. According to Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko, Putin suggested executing Prigozhin but was convinced not to during negotiations in which Lukashenko told the Russian leader that “a bad peace is better than any war.”

Meanwhile, Wagner may face consequences beyond Russia. On Tuesday, the U.S. Treasury sanctioned four companies and one individual connected to the organization’s work in Africa. The four corporations—Midas Ressources, Diamville, Industrial Resources General Trading, and Limited Liability Company—all assist in funding the Wagner Group through Africa’s illegal gold and diamond mining trades. Andrey Nikolayevich Ivanov, Wagner’s facilitator in Mali, was also sanctioned.

“The sanctions showcase how Washington is aiming to cripple the Wagner Group’s international operations beyond the war in Ukraine, even as Moscow may cripple Wagner’s operations closer to home,” FP’s Robbie Gramer reported.

This ruling came the same day that numerous U.S. federal agencies issued warnings of terrorism, money laundering, human rights abuses, and environmental degradation related to sub-Saharan Africa’s illegal gold trade. As of February, Wagner had generated more than $250 million from natural resources in Africa and the Middle East in exchange for security services.

Deadly missile strike in Ukraine. On Wednesday, Ukrainian authorities arrested an individual suspected of assisting Russia in directing a missile strike at a pizza restaurant in Kramatorsk, Ukraine. The Tuesday attack killed at least 11 people, including three minors, and wounded 61 others. Multistory buildings, homes, schools, and various other structures were also damaged in the assault.

Initial reports said the attack was conducted with S-300 missiles, a long-range surface-to-air missile system that has a poor track record of target accuracy. However, Ukrainian officials said Russian troops used Iskander ballistic missiles, which have high accuracy and are primarily used against military targets such as command centers. Kramatorsk is a front-line city that houses the Ukrainian army’s regional headquarters, suggesting it may have been deliberately targeted.

France protests racism in policing. On Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron condemned the killing of a 17-year-old by police—a rare rebuke of law enforcement in a country with a history of discriminatory policies. The teenager, who was of North African descent, was shot and killed on Monday while stopped at a traffic light near Paris. One of the police officers accused of shooting the boy is now under investigation for voluntary homicide. “It is unexplainable and inexcusable,” Macron said. “Nothing justifies the death of a young man.”

Protests erupted across France on Tuesday night following the teenager’s killing, where individuals launched fireworks and set cars on fire. Around 1,200 police officers were deployed during the demonstrations, resulting in 31 arrests. According to French Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin, 2,000 more police officers will be deployed Wednesday night after 24 officers were injured during the protests.

Flare-up over Nagorno-Karabakh. Violence escalated this week over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region: Four Armenian soldiers were killed on Wednesday by an Azerbaijani artillery and drone attack. The deaths came 24 hours after Azerbaijan’s defense ministry alleged one of its soldiers was shot by Armenian troops.

Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan met with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday in Washington to discuss mediating the yearslong conflict; both Armenia and Azerbaijan claim Nagorno-Karabakh as their own territory. However, regional security and stability remain out of reach.

Next time someone tells you they’re not getting any younger, remember that in some parts of the world, it’s possible. South Koreans wound back their age clocks by one or two years on Wednesday after a new law went into effect that requires citizens to follow the international method of counting age. Until Wednesday, South Koreans were born 1 year old, and every Jan. 1, they added a year. Talk about turning back time.

Why did the second plane of Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin head for Azerbaijani capital Baku, ask Azerbaijani media.

One of Prigozhin’s Embraer ERJ-135bj Legacy 650 planes went to Baku on Thursday. This is evidenced by flight tracking service Flightradar, according to which, this plane left Moscow at 3:30pm and landed in Baku at 7:04pm.

Russian sources claim that this is one of the two planes that belonged to Yevgeny Prigozhin, who died in a plane crash on Wednesday.

After Prigozhin’s plane crashed, the second plane returned to Moscow, but then left for Baku the next day.

There is no information about the passengers of this plane that went to the Azerbaijani capital, the media report.

Print

The Armenian telegram channel Bagramyan 26, considered close to Pashinyan, reported on September 8 that Russia was preparing a coup in Armenia with the help of members of the mercenaries from the private military company Wagner.

We publish this material with some abbreviations:

At the time of Prigozhin’s death, there were about 3,000 fighters of the Wagner PPK in Armenia. Recently (mostly from Rostov) they have been joined by about 2,000 contract soldiers (mostly ethnic Armenians). Considering Pashinyan’s recent statements about the mistake of choosing Russia as a strategic partner and accusing the Russian leadership of non-compliance with agreements on the Karabakh issue, the Kremlin has authorized the scenario of a coup d’etat in Armenia.

The goal of this plan is to remove Pashinyan and his team from power using the Wagner militants present in the country. The “last straw” for Putin was the joint Armenian-American military exercises. Currently, the number of Wagnerians in Armenia has increased to 12 thousand. The command to act was “for the day before yesterday.” The Russians’ main bet is on the top management of the military, intelligence services, and police, where there are plenty of Russian agents. In the middle and lower levels, support from Russians is much less. Russia does not have worthy candidates to replace Pashinyan (both Kocharyan and Sargsyan are popping up there…) and is going all-in.

The likelihood of success is extremely low, given the presence of numerous military formations in and around Yerevan. However, the emphasis is on destabilization on the contact line of Nagorno-Karabakh and on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border.

In continuation of the process, the cards of pro-Russian candidates for the mayor of Yerevan will be played (Tandilyan – Ruben Vardanyan’s candidate, Marutyan – Patrushev’s candidate, Tevanyan – Kocharyan’s candidate). -0-

A shift in leadership dynamics: Samvel Shahramanyan becomes a key figure of Armenians in Karabakh

Baku/01.09.23/Turan: September 1 marked a significant turning point for the Armenians residing in the populated areas of the Karabakh Economic Region of Azerbaijan. Samvel Shahramanyan assumed the d ……

Turan News Agency

Baku/01.09.23/Turan: September 1 marked a significant turning point for the Armenians residing in the populated areas of the Karabakh Economic Region of Azerbaijan. Samvel Shahramanyan assumed the de facto civilian leadership position, being appointed “state minister” with considerable authority by the now-resigned and illegitimate president, Araik Harutyunyan. The post of “president” is awaiting a successor, with the region’s illegal “parliament” set to make an appointment within a week.

This recent shift in power can be traced back to a series of events that began on July 29, 2023. On that day, “parliament” speaker Artur Tovmasyan voluntarily stepped down from his position, acknowledging his inability to influence unfolding events. Subsequently, on August 9, David Ishkhanyan, a representative of the radical nationalist Dashnaktsutyun party, was elected as the new “speaker,” signaling a transfer of elected power into the hands of staunch adversaries of Azerbaijan.

With Harutyunyan’s departure, his ally “state Minister” Gurgen Nersisyan, known for impassioned anti-Azerbaijan rhetoric, also resigned. Another notable departure was Artak Beglaryan, known for his fervent animosity towards Turks. Ruben Vardanyan, once a “state minister,” then an “adviser to the state minister,” also exited the political stage.

Stepping into this shifting landscape is Samvel Shahramanyan, who formerly held the post of “secretary of the Security Council.” Shahramanyan’s career trajectory is marked by his roles in various governmental departments since 1999. Notably, he served in the local “National Security Service” from 1999 to 2008, followed by positions such as “head of the operational investigation Department of the tax Service” (2008-2010), “chief enforcement officer of the Ministry of Justice” (2010-2013), “head of the Criminal Investigation Board of Khankendi,” (2013-2018), “Director of the Service National Security” (2018), “Minister of Youth, Sports and Tourism” (2020), and “Secretary of the Security Council” (2023).

Shahramanyan has faced personal tragedy as well; his son lost his life in the 44-day war. Yet, his career progression has been attributed to his apparent avoidance of major confrontations with corrupt officials, as noted by blogger David Stepanyan. Stepanyan asserts that Shahramanyan’s rise through the ranks was facilitated by his tendency to turn a blind eye to certain practices, particularly high-ranking officials’ evasion of taxes. This has allowed him to consistently climb the ladder of success.

In contrast to his predecessor, Shahramanyan has not faced a criminal case initiated by the Prosecutor General’s Office of Azerbaijan, positioning him potentially more favorably for negotiations with Baku. However, his stance on the demands made by Azerbaijan remains unknown as of now.

As the leadership dynamics continue to evolve in the region, Shahramanyan’s ascendancy and his potential role in shaping the region’s relationship with Azerbaijan will undoubtedly be closely watched by both local and international observers.-0–

Sept 8 (Reuters) – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Friday that his country’s allies had eased sanctions on Russia and called for a renewed drive to impose further punitive measures on Moscow.

“At this time, we see too long a pause by our partners in terms of sanctions,” he said in his nightly video address. “And very active Russian attempts to evade sanctions.”

Zelenskiy said keeping the pressure on Moscow should focus on Russia’s energy sector, its access to microelectronics and its financial sector.

“There are three priorities: further sanctions against Russia’s energy sector, real restrictions on the supplies going to the terrorists of chips and microelectronics in general and continued blocking of Russia’s financial sector,” he said.

“The world’s sanctions offensive must resume.”

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Oleg Nikolenko had earlier said Ukraine rejected any suggestion of easing sanctions against Russia as part of efforts to restore the U.N.-backed agreement to ship grain through the Black Sea.

“Easing part of the sanctions regime against Russia in exchange for the resumption of the grain agreement would be a victory for Russian food blackmail and an invitation to Moscow for new waves of blackmail,” Nikolenko wrote on Facebook.

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