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- Risk Factors and Mass Killings: Research identifies specific factors that can heighten the risk of mass killings. These include, but are not limited to, geopolitical instability, a decline in democratic freedom, the presence of ongoing conflicts, and discrimination against certain groups. The Early Warning Project utilizes statistical models to assess the risk of new mass killings based on these factors.
- Mass Killings are Rare, but the Risk Factors Persist: While mass killings are statistically rare, occurring in only a small percentage of countries annually, the Early Warning Project notes that a few countries consistently face high risk due to these factors. This suggests that the underlying conditions can be persistent.
- Geopolitical Dynamics and Mass Atrocities: Research highlights that geopolitical dynamics, alongside factors like radicalization and nationalism, can exacerbate the risk of mass atrocities. Geopolitical events and tensions can fuel terrorist narratives and recruitment efforts, further potentially contributing to violence and extremism.
- Limitations of Current Models: It’s important to note that predictive models like the Early Warning Project’s focus on intrastate mass killings and may not encompass all forms of mass violence, such as civilian fatalities in interstate conflicts. These models are also correlational, meaning they identify associations but don’t establish causality.
- Ongoing Research and the Need for Better Data: Continued research is crucial to fully understand the relationship between mass killings and geopolitical events. There’s a particular need for more in-depth analysis of the proximate drivers and triggers of mass violence.
Full article: The Relationship between Violent Political Rhetoric and Mass Shootings
- Differing Agendas: There is no evidence of a “three-way bargain” involving the annexation of Gaza in exchange for a pro-Russian realignment of Ukraine.
- Gaza and Ukraine Treated Separately: Recent discussions indicate that Gaza and Ukraine are being addressed as distinct issues in the context of international diplomacy.
- Trump and Putin’s Relationship: While a meeting between Trump and Putin has been suggested to discuss Ukraine, there is no evidence to suggest it involves a deal for Gaza annexation.
- Netanyahu and Gaza: Netanyahu faces internal and external pressure regarding Israel’s actions in Gaza, and annexation remains a possibility. However, there is no indication it is linked to a deal on Ukraine’s alignment with Russia.
- Trump’s Focus on Ukraine: Reports highlight Trump’s desire for a quick resolution to the war in Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions on Russia if progress isn’t made.
- For Putin, Trump Summit Is Key to Securing Ukraine Goals – The New York Times
- Trump Tells European Leaders He Intends to Meet With Putin and Zelensky – The New York Times
- Fort Stewart shooting: Shooter in custody after 5 soldiers shot at Georgia army base
- U.S. Army sergeant suspected of shooting, wounding five soldiers at Fort Stewart in Georgia | Reuters
- Samentrio – Google Search
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- Redford : Meaning and Origin of First Name | Search Family History on Ancestry®.
- Fort Stewart shooting – Google Search
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- Trump, Putin, Netanyahu three way bargain: annexation of Gaza in exchange of the more pro-Russian strategic realignment of Ukraine – Google Search
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- Mass Shootings as the “Message Delivery System”: My interpretations of the 7.28.25 mass shootings in the US: these are the messages from Putin and the GRU.
- Mass Shootings as the Message Delivery System: Fort Stewart shooting (Ford Steward, the lead in the crossing point)
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- Michael Novakhov on X: “https://t.co/hwk5zKgGpx – #NewsAndTimes #NT #TNT #News #Times #World #USA #POTUS #DOJ #FBI #CIA #DIA #DOD #ODNI #Trump #TrumpNews #TRUMPISTAN #Israel #Mossad #Netanyahu #Ukraine #NewAbwehr #OSINT #Putin #Russia #GRU #Путин #Россия #Bloggers #Opinions #SouthCaucasus – https://t.co/84MYzpzily” / X
- Michael Novakhov on X: “#FBI FBI #CIA CIA #Mossad Mossad #ODNI ODNI #Trump Trump Mass Shootings as the Message Delivery System: Fort Stewart shooting (Ford Steward, the lead in the crossing point) https://t.co/xj5ZUAigE8 Samuel – W Post Link https://t.co/xj5ZUAigE8 Mass Shootings as the Message https://t.co/jQ3YDdPPwI” / X
To FBI – #FBI, Kash Patel – #KashPatel #MassShootings:
There is a pressing need to look into this issue:
“Mass shootings as the Message Delivery System orchestrated by the Intelligence Services”.
In my opinion, the GRU and the Mossad are in the front row of suspects.
See… pic.twitter.com/38pLk0hmgB— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) July 30, 2025
Updates
Fort Stewart shooting suspect was relentlessly mocked for stutter, soldiers say | Georgia | The Guardian https://t.co/jcpE9Es16j
M.N.: It is more complex than the simple teasing.
“The battalion’s commander, Lt Col Mike Sanford, said on Thursday that he’s unaware of any problems…— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) August 8, 2025
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“Agent Melania”https://t.co/eUFuK11Bu4
–#NewsAndTimes #NT #TNT #News #Times #World #USA #POTUS #DOJ #FBI #CIA #DIA #DOD #ODNI #Trump #TrumpNews #TRUMPISTAN #Israel #Mossad #Netanyahu #Ukraine #NewAbwehr #OSINT #Putin #Russia #GRU #Путин #Россия #Bloggers #Opinions… pic.twitter.com/PibMH87jMo— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) August 10, 2025
Foreign Support and Leader Legitimacy
Foreign Support: A Double-Edged Sword for Leader Legitimacy
Foreign support can be a critical lifeline for a nation’s leader, offering the resources to stabilize a country, stimulate economic growth, and enhance international standing. However, this external backing is a double-edged sword that can just as easily undermine a leader’s legitimacy, fostering perceptions of puppetry and eroding public trust.
Bolstering Legitimacy: The Upside of External Backing
Foreign support can significantly enhance a leader’s legitimacy in several key ways. Economic aid, for instance, can provide the capital for crucial infrastructure projects, improve public services, and create jobs, leading to tangible improvements in citizens’ quality of life. This can translate into increased approval for the incumbent leader, who is credited with delivering prosperity.
Military assistance can be vital for leaders facing internal insurgencies or external threats.
Diplomatic recognition from influential global powers and international organizations is a powerful tool for legitimization.
A prime example of foreign support initially bolstering a leader’s legitimacy is the case of Hamid Karzai in Afghanistan. Following the U.S.-led intervention that ousted the Taliban in 2001, Karzai, with significant international backing, was seen by many as a unifying figure who could lead the country toward a more stable and democratic future. The influx of foreign aid and military support was crucial in establishing his government and initiating reconstruction efforts.
Undermining Legitimacy: The Perils of Foreign Dependence
Conversely, the very same mechanisms of support can severely damage a leader’s standing. The most significant risk is the perception of being a “puppet” of foreign powers. When a leader is seen as overly beholden to external benefactors, their decisions can be viewed as serving foreign interests rather than those of their own people. This narrative can be a potent weapon for political opponents and can lead to widespread public resentment.
The case of the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, serves as a stark warning. His close ties to the United States and other Western powers, particularly after the 1953 coup that restored him to power, were a central grievance for the opposition. Critics portrayed him as a Western puppet, and this perception, coupled with his authoritarian rule, ultimately contributed to his overthrow in the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Foreign aid often comes with conditions, such as economic austerity measures or political reforms, that can be deeply unpopular with the domestic population. When a leader implements these policies at the behest of foreign donors, it can fuel accusations of sacrificing national sovereignty and erode their popular support.
Military intervention, even when invited, can be a particularly fraught form of support. The presence of foreign troops on a country’s soil can be a powerful symbol of diminished sovereignty and can incite nationalist sentiment against the leader who permitted it. Over time, the association with a foreign military presence can tarnish a leader’s legitimacy, as was increasingly the case with Hamid Karzai, who in the later years of his presidency grew publicly critical of the international military presence in Afghanistan, in part to distance himself from his foreign backers and shore up his nationalist credentials.
The Decisive Role of Public Perception
Ultimately, the impact of foreign support on a leader’s legitimacy is filtered through the lens of public perception. If the population views foreign assistance as a genuine effort to help their country and trusts their leader to manage it effectively and in the national interest, it can be a significant political asset. However, if it is perceived as a tool of foreign domination or a source of corruption that benefits only the elite, it can become a powerful catalyst for dissent and a lasting stain on a leader’s claim to legitimate rule. The successful leader is one who can navigate this fine line, leveraging foreign support to deliver tangible benefits to their people while fiercely guarding their autonomy and the sovereignty of their nation.
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- International Recognition: When a leader or their government receives formal recognition from other states and international organizations, it enhances their standing and perceived legitimacy on the global stage. This can open doors to diplomatic relations, treaties, and participation in international forums, further solidifying their position.
- Foreign Aid and Development: Foreign assistance, whether for economic development or humanitarian relief, can be strategically leveraged by leaders to demonstrate their ability to provide for their population, thereby potentially bolstering their domestic legitimacy.
- Attribution Dilemma: If citizens perceive that crucial services are being primarily provided by foreign donors rather than their own government, it can undermine the perceived competence and relevance of the domestic government, potentially eroding legitimacy.
- Risk of Undermining Democratic Processes: Some argue that foreign intervention or support can interfere with or distort democratic processes by favoring certain leaders or factions, potentially hindering the development of genuine, internally-derived legitimacy.
- Dependence and Erosion of Sovereignty: Over-reliance on foreign support can raise concerns about a leader’s independence and autonomy in decision-making, potentially leading to a perception of external influence that might diminish their legitimacy in the eyes of their people.
- Potential for Undeserved Blame: While leaders may claim credit for donor-provided services, they can also face blame for negative consequences or failures in aid delivery, even if they aren’t directly responsible.
5 hours ago
legitimizing a leader’s authority, both internationally and domestically.
- External Recognition: International recognition from other states or international organizations can confer legitimacy on a leader or government, according to law.unimelb.edu.au. This is particularly important for leaders seeking to participate in international affairs or secure their position on the global stage.
- Foreign Aid and Assistance: Foreign aid can contribute to a leader’s legitimacy by supporting the provision of public services and infrastructure projects. When citizens attribute these improvements to their government, it can enhance their perception of the government’s competence and effectiveness. Some studies suggest this can happen even if the aid is channelled through non-governmental organizations, with citizens still attributing some credit to the government for attracting the aid.
- Intervention and Support for Stability: In some cases, foreign intervention and assistance may be intended to establish or re-establish legitimate political authority in a country. Examples include the US’s emphasis on democracy-building in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the support for the French intervention in Mali to affirm democracy and effective government.
- Risk of Undermining Legitimacy: If citizens perceive their government as overly reliant on foreign aid or if foreign aid projects are poorly managed, it can undermine the government’s legitimacy and be seen as a sign of weakness or incompetence.
- Attribution and Expectations: The impact of foreign support on a leader’s legitimacy can depend on whether citizens accurately attribute credit for aid projects to the government and on their expectations regarding the government’s role in service provision.
- Varying Effects Across Contexts: The effects of foreign support can vary depending on the specific circumstances of the recipient country, the type of foreign support, and the existing level of government legitimacy.
Netanyahu and October 7
Netanyahu and October 7https://t.co/VVjn0rEmAP
=#NewsAndTimes #NT #TNT #News #Times #World #USA #POTUS #DOJ #FBI #CIA #DIA #DOD #ODNI #Trump #TrumpNews #TRUMPISTAN #Israel #Mossad #Netanyahu #Ukraine #NewAbwehr #OSINT #Putin #Russia #GRU #Путин #Россия #Bloggers #Opinions… pic.twitter.com/x4JpS82pRk— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) August 5, 2025
Gemini
Netanyahu and October 7 Fallout
Netanyahu’s Leadership Under Scrutiny Following Catastrophic October 7 Attacks
Jerusalem, Israel – The surprise and devastating attack by Hamas on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, has cast a long and critical shadow over the leadership of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
In the immediate aftermath of the assault, a visibly shaken Netanyahu declared that Israel was “at war” and vowed to exact an “unprecedented price” from Hamas. He announced two primary objectives: the complete elimination of Hamas’s military and governmental capabilities and the return of all hostages.
However, as the initial shock has given way to a prolonged and grueling war in Gaza, questions surrounding the intelligence and operational failures that allowed the October 7 attack to occur have intensified. A civilian commission of inquiry, established to investigate the catastrophic events, has placed direct responsibility on Prime Minister Netanyahu for the failures leading up to the attack.
Parallel to the civilian probe, the Israeli military has conducted its own investigation, acknowledging a “complete failure” to anticipate and thwart the Hamas assault.
The political and public fallout for Netanyahu has been substantial. His approval ratings have plummeted, and he has faced widespread protests demanding his resignation and calling for new elections. The families of the hostages have been a particularly vocal and potent force, holding regular demonstrations to pressure the government to secure the release of their loved ones. Recent images of emaciated hostages have further fueled public anger and increased the urgency for a resolution.
Internationally, Netanyahu’s government has faced mounting criticism for the scale of the military response in Gaza and the ensuing humanitarian crisis.
Despite the immense pressure, Netanyahu has remained defiant, insisting that he will continue to lead the country until “total victory” is achieved.
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x.com/haaretzcom/sta
Netanyahu tries to turn the October 7 Defeat and historical lapse of security, which is ultimately his responsibility, into the “Gaza victory”. He does not want the proper State Committee investigation of October 7, because it will reveal Putin’s hand in it. He wants cover-ups and whitewash. Remove Netanyahu from power in the next election!
Netanyahu and the October 7 – GS
AI Overview
The October 7th attacks and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s role, and the aftermath: Intelligence Failures and Warnings: There were significant intelligence failures leading up to the October 7th attacks by Hamas. Warnings about a potential attack were reportedly delivered to Netanyahu and other officials, but were not acted upon effectively. Netanyahu’s office acknowledged that his intelligence officer received a memo detailing suspicious Hamas activity hours before the attacks, but did not pass it on, according to The Times of Israel.
Netanyahu’s Response and Responsibility: Netanyahu has faced criticism for deflecting responsibility for the security failures, blaming intelligence and security chiefs. Public opinion polls indicate a majority of Israelis believe Netanyahu should take responsibility. There have been calls for an independent investigation into the events surrounding October 7th, but Netanyahu has resisted establishing a state commission of inquiry, claiming it would be biased.
Controversies and Allegations: A civilian commission of inquiry concluded that Netanyahu’s “quiet for cash” policy, which involved allowing Qatari money into Gaza, played a role in strengthening Hamas. The New York Times reports that Netanyahu ignored repeated warnings about a potential attack and deflected blame in the immediate aftermath of October 7th. His team reportedly moved to prevent the leak of potentially problematic conversations and altered official records of his earliest calls on that day. An aide to Netanyahu is reportedly being investigated by police over the timing of phone calls Netanyahu received as the attack was unfolding.
Political Implications: The October 7th attacks and their aftermath have significantly impacted Israeli politics, with public dissatisfaction and calls for accountability. Netanyahu’s government is perceived as having failed to protect the populace, shaking the confidence in the state’s ability to safeguard its citizens. The ongoing conflict and Netanyahu’s handling of the situation have led to increased scrutiny of his leadership.
International Response: Many countries condemned the Hamas attacks and supported Israel’s right to self-defense. However, there has been growing international alarm and condemnation of Israel’s military actions in Gaza, particularly concerning civilian casualties and the humanitarian crisis. Amnesty International, for example, concluded that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.
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AI Mode
Netanyahu and the October 7
Netanyahu and the October 7 attack: Fallout and responsibility
Following the devastating Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has faced intense scrutiny and blame regarding Israel’s preparedness and response.
Key points of contention regarding Netanyahu’s role include:
Policy towards Hamas: Critics point to Netanyahu’s long-standing policy of containing and allowing Qatari funds into Gaza, which some argue enabled Hamas to strengthen and prepare for the attacks.
Ignoring warnings: Reports suggest Netanyahu ignored repeated intelligence warnings about a potential attack, particularly in the months leading up to October 7, according to a New York Times investigation.
Deflection of responsibility: Netanyahu has publicly deflected blame onto military and intelligence officials, claiming he wasn’t sufficiently informed or that security chiefs underestimated Hamas.
Delaying an official inquiry: Netanyahu has resisted establishing a state commission of inquiry into the failures surrounding the attacks, despite public pressure and the creation of an unofficial civilian inquiry.
Impact of judicial overhaul: Some argue that Netanyahu’s controversial judicial overhaul plan exacerbated divisions within Israeli society and weakened the military, potentially contributing to the perceived vulnerability that emboldened Hamas.
Responses and counterpoints:
Netanyahu acknowledges some responsibility: While initially deflecting blame, Netanyahu has acknowledged bearing some responsibility for the intelligence failures, according to ABC News.
Blaming security chiefs: Netanyahu’s office has stated that his intelligence officer received an alert hours before the attack but didn’t pass it on, implying a failure within the security establishment.
Shin Bet and military investigations: Investigations by Israel’s internal security agency (Shin Bet) and the military have acknowledged their own failures in anticipating the attack but also pointed to government policies as contributing factors.
Supporting an “objective” inquiry: Netanyahu has expressed support for an “objective” commission of inquiry while opposing what he terms a “biased” or “political” investigation.
Overall:
The October 7 attack remains a deeply sensitive and impactful event in Israel, with ongoing debates about accountability and the roles of various actors, including Prime Minister Netanyahu. Public opinion polls indicate that a significant majority of Israelis believe Netanyahu should take responsibility for the failures surrounding the attack. The long-term political ramifications for Netanyahu and Israel are still unfolding.
AI responses may include mistakes. Learn more
What were the main findings of the Shin Bet investigation regarding Netanyahu’s policies and actions before Oct 7?
What warnings did Netanyahu ignore before October 7th?
What are the main criticisms against a state commission of inquiry into the October 7 attacks?








