Category: Selected Articles

Opinion by Lara Setrakian

(CNN) — Nothing about Luis Moreno Ocampo’s testimony to the US Congress last week was subtle. The legendary former prosecutor of the International Criminal Court told the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission that there is reasonable basis to believe that a genocide is underway in Nagorno-Karabakh, where an estimated 120,000 Armenians have been deprived of food, fuel and medical supplies for more than eight months.

Nagorno-Karabakh — known as the Republic of Artsakh by local Armenians — a mountaintop region populated by ethnic Armenians, has been officially within the borders of Azerbaijan since the days of the Soviet Union. Local Armenian authorities have vied for independence from Azerbaijan for decades, leading to an ongoing political and military conflict.

Since December, the Lachin Corridor, the main road into the mountaintop enclave, has been blocked by Azeri protesters and government forces, who stopped the normal flow of goods. Since June, the International Committee of the Red Cross has been barred from using the road to bring food to the Armenian population, in what local residents see as a way of forcing them to capitulate to a series of political demands, including a complete surrender of their local autonomy.

This weekend, the two sides had appeared to reach a deal on aid deliveries, but by Monday the agreement had either stalled or broken down. As the political dispute drags on, residents are running out of time. Multiple monitoring groups say there is widespread food scarcity on the ground, with child and adult malnutrition setting in. (On Tuesday, a single Russian Red Cross truck with supplies arrived in Nagorno-Karabakh carrying food, blankets and hygiene supplies, according to the local authority, as reported by Reuters.)

Its precious cargo is sorely needed. In strangling the supply of food, Ocampo said, Azerbaijan’s government has crossed a critical line.

“This is an ongoing genocide. This is happening now,” he told the hearing. “Genocide under Article IIC requires just creating the conditions to destroy a people … blocking the Lachin Corridor with its life systems for the Nagorno-Karabakh people is exactly creating those conditions.” Moreover, he said the US risked being complicit in genocide, should it fail to call out what is happening on the ground and prevent further loss of life.

The US appears to be trying to lift the blockade, though its efforts to date have been limited. Last Sunday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, voicing US concern over what he called “the deteriorating humanitarian situation” facing Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians. Since December, Blinken has repeatedly called on Aliyev to open the Lachin Corridor to humanitarian, commercial and passenger traffic.

The International Court of Justice said the same in February, ruling that Azerbaijan “shall ensure uninterrupted free movement of all persons, vehicles, and cargo.”

Azerbaijan insists it is not doing anything wrong. As an exercise of sovereign control over its territory, Azeri officials say that the checkpoints and restrictions it has put in place are an element of national security. It accused the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) of smuggling contraband goods through their aid deliveries and others of bringing in weapons to Nagorno-Karabakh. The ICRC said no unauthorized material had moved through any of its vehicles to Nagorno-Karabakh.

Azerbaijan also claims that Armenia continues to have a military presence in the Nagorno-Karabakh. In a statement to CNN, a spokesman of Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that his government “rejects in the strongest terms any contention that it is committing or intends to commit ‘genocide.’”

In June — six months after the blockade began — Baku offered to bring in supplies through another road from the city of Aghdam, under the control of the Azeri government. But the US and EU have said it is no substitute for reopening the Lachin Corridor, which was meant to remain open as part of a ceasefire deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan in November 2020.

Armenians are also wary of becoming reliant on aid from Azeri authorities who have reportedly cut food, electricity, gas and internet to the population at various points since the start of the blockade. (Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the source of the power and internet cuts.)

A multi-decade cycle of painful loss

Perhaps surprisingly, Armenia and Azerbaijan were well into a round of peace talks when the blockade began. As it has dragged on, the deprivation and now starvation of Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh have left an overtone of bitterness and distrust that is dampening the peace process. Armenians say Azerbaijan is strangling the population into submitting to oppressive demands. Azerbaijan says Armenians have been supporting criminal separatists trying to break away from the central state.

Nagorno-Karabakh, which had been an autonomous region run by Armenian authorities during the Soviet Union, has pursued its independence for decades. It falls officially within the borders of Azerbaijan, but has fought multiple wars to avoid integration with the country, fearful of its history of bloody massacres and cultural extinction of Armenians from different parts of its territory.

In one example captured in satellite photos from the region of Nakhichevan, Azeri authorities apparently demolished thousands of Armenian Christian monuments, known as khachkars, with an assessment showing the use of heavy machinery to raze the ground. (Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev denied having destroyed the site, saying the claims were “a lie and a provocation,” according to the Institute for War and Peace Reporting.)

Azerbaijanis themselves suffered mass displacement when Armenians won the First Karabakh War in 1994, claiming that scores of homes and mosques were ruined in the process.

Those episodes have left scars on all sides. Now Azerbaijan has the upper hand and conditions on the ground are deteriorating, with 30,000 children there potentially facing malnutrition and many more potentially dying of basic illness.

What comes next: 3 ways to turn around disaster

There is still time for a turnaround. There are at least three things that can be done to save lives and end a multi-decade cycle of painful loss. They would also renew the chance for an effective peace process.

First, food and medicine urgently need to reach the population in Nagorno-Karabakh. Civilians shouldn’t be held hostage to political and geopolitical contests for power. That is a basic principle of international humanitarian law. There needs to be humanitarian airlift, by plane or cargo drone, potentially with UN authorization of cross-border aid deliveries, as we have seen in Syria, Sarajevo and Darfur.

The fastest path would be for Azerbaijan to restore movement along the Lachin Corridor, letting in aid from the ICRC. If they are concerned about arms or other material seeping in, those concerns can be easily addressed. In addition to the ICRC already saying it undergoes customs clearance, international partners have offered to put incoming cargo through scanners to prevent weapons smuggling.

If the blockade isn’t lifted it will be time for a humanitarian intervention. Already, aid groups say fresh food is nearly impossible to find and bread lines last for hours, with food often running out. If the situation continues to devolve it will soon be too late to act, as people begin dying in large numbers because of a bitter political impasse.

If instead of feeding the ethnic Armenian population, they are offered an evacuation from Nagorno-Karabakh — Azerbaijan has already offered them a one-way ticket out — then it will constitute ethnic cleansing of the region. Like genocide, ethnic cleansing comes in more than one form; It can happen by removing people from their homes by making life practically unlivable. Thousands of people who otherwise had no intention of leaving their homes in Nagorno-Karabakh will flee out of desperation for food and sustenance.

Second, if President Aliyev is true to his word as a leader who champions tolerance and ethnic-religious harmony, he should treat the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh with dignity and a spirit of reconciliation. Rather than threaten Armenians with starvation, which poisons the well of co-existence, he should let aid move unimpeded into Nagorno-Karabakh.

He should also drop all state-sponsored hate speech and inflammatory rhetoric, which has included grotesque caricatures of Armenians in a controversial government-backed museum celebrating Azerbaijan’s victory in 2020. With leadership from the top, Aliyev and his government can create true space for interfaith and interethnic dialogue, including a pledge to maintain ancient Armenian churches and monasteries in Nagorno-Karabakh without the risk of desecration or destruction, which they have faced in the past.

Third, on the understanding that no one wants to see a new interstate war, the US, EU and Russia should put pressure on Azerbaijan’s main allies, Turkey and Israel, to discourage a military escalation in the region. Turkish and Israeli weapon supplies, as well as direct training, are vital to Azerbaijan’s military capacity. Those countries should be asked to help stabilize the situation, avoiding the threat of force or its actual use, particularly on a civilian population weakened by hunger.

There are many things that both Armenia and Azerbaijan can do to smooth the path toward peace. But in this crisis it must start with these urgent steps. What the final political outcome should be is not yet clear, but an imposed blockade and the starvation of civilians is no way to get to a good one.

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The 5th Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State of Central
Asia has kicked off in Dushanbe.

President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev is
attending the meeting as the guest of honor.

President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon welcomed President of
Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and other heads of state.

Then, a family photo was taken.

X X X

The initiative of holding consultative meetings of the Heads of
State of Central Asia was put forward by President of Uzbekistan
Shavkat Mirziyoyev in 2017. The first meeting was held in
Kazakhstan, the second in Uzbekistan, the third in Turkmenistan,
and the fourth in Kyrgyzstan.

—

Follow us on Twitter @AzerNewsAz

President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev has
congratulated the Jewish community of Azerbaijan on the New Year –
Rosh Hashanah.

The letter reads:

Esteemed Mr. President,

On my own behalf and on behalf of the people of Azerbaijan, I am
happy to extend my cordial congratulations and sincerest wishes to
you and through you to the friendly people of Israel on the
occasion of the upcoming Jewish New Year – Rosh Hashana.

I wish that this bright holiday, which brings a new spirit to
people and gives new hopes for the future, brings you and your
family, your friendly people and your country good days, peace,
prosperity, abundance and blessings.

I am sure that we will continue to make joint efforts to further
strengthen and expand Azerbaijan-Israel friendship and cooperation
in line with the will of our peoples, who always cherish their
national and moral values.

Sincerely,

Ilham Aliyev

President of the Republic of Azerbaijan

Baku, 12 September 2023

—

Follow us on Twitter @AzerNewsAz

The Assistant to the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan
Hikmat Hajiyev, shared a post on his X (former twitter) page in response to the
pro-Armenian senator of the US Congress Bob Menendez’s biased
speech against Azerbaijan in the senate. The Azerbaijani official
said that the senator, who unilaterally serves the Armenians, lied
before the Foreign Relations Committee about the Armenian minority
in Garabagh and shared fake photos, Azernews reports.

“Instead of answering serious corruption allegations,
congressman Menendez lies to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee
with false information and fake pictures. The person presented in
the picture died of cancer. Armenians themselves are ashamed to use
this naked lie any longer after provided substantial
criminal-medical evidence. This kind of lobbyism, ‘moneytalkism,’
sheer lie and racist hate against Azerbaijanis and others undermine
the image and global reputation of the United States Congress.
Shameful!”

Instead of answering serious corruption
allegations, congressman Menendez lies to the Senate Foreign
Relations Committee @SFRCdems
with false information and fake pictures. The person presented in
the picture died of cancer. Armenians themselves are ashamed to use
this naked lie… https://t.co/c2R18szRJr

— Hikmet Hajiyev (@HikmetHajiyev)
September 13, 2023

Pro-Armenian Bob Menendez, who was accused of corruption in
2015, tried to present a picture of an Armenian resident of
Garabagh, who died of cancer, as if he died of hunger.

Bob Menendez repeatedly made biased statements against
Azerbaijan in the US Congress. Menendez’s aggressive speech in the
senate stems from his extreme hatred for Azerbaijan and his
Turkophobic sentiment. It seems that Bob Menendez could not digest
the recent successful political steps taken by the Azerbaijani
leadership in exposing the Armenian provocations, and for this
reason, he vomited his hatred in front of the congress tribune with
all his might.

—

Follow us on Twitter @AzerNewsAz

Until June 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin was apparently quite confident in his power and the lack of any true challenge to it. Anti-Putin activists were successfully squeezed out of the country, the most vociferous were imprisoned or killed. The more measured dissatisfied voices largely stayed silent. The Russian elites were seemingly willing to endure the president’s exhaustive foreign policy agenda, consistently supporting him in the public sphere (The Moscow Times, June 8).

However, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s “march for justice” broke that coerced calm. It turned out that several thousand armed men could move freely throughout Russia, take control of critical military facilities and major cities, as well as fire on the military aircraft that tried to stop them. Most importantly, none of Putin’s most ardent supporters came out to meet Prigozhin and defend Moscow with their forces. Some supporters allegedly even tried to flee from danger (Current Time TV, June 24; Vesma, June 27).

The Wagner Group’s mutiny shone a light on Putin’s weak side, demonstrating that it is possible to pressure the Russian president when possessing adequate resources. Thus, his image as a “strong leader” was irreparably damaged. At first, he characterized the march on Moscow as “treasonous” and a “betrayal,” promising to crush the “mutineers”; by the end of the day, his aggressive stance had all but evaporated. In this, the lasting damage to Putin’s image should be emphasized, as even the destruction of Prigozhin’s private jet cannot erase from memory how weakly and inadequately the Kremlin leader behaved on June 24 (Vazhnie Istorii; Meduza, June 24). It is unlikely that the Russian elites have forgotten that, in stopping the Wagnerites, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka had to be involved.

As a result, Putin is now undoubtedly more suspicious of his entourage than he was when seeking to tighten his inner circle earlier this year, which has affected his approach to foreign policy (see EDM, April 10). The Russian president did not attend the BRICS summit in South Africa in person due to security concerns. He also abandoned the idea of attending the G20 summit in India in person. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was designated to replace Putin as Russia’s head of state at both events (Lenta.ru, July 19, TASS, August 25)

Summits often involve face-to-face communication between heads of state who determine the main areas of their interaction. If the head of state is unable to participate, it is logical to replace them with the next most senior person. However, in the Russian sense, the next most senior official is not Lavrov, but rather Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.

Mishustin is often considered a possible compromise figure for a post-Putin Russia (24TV, October 20, 2022). He is an experienced administrator who has dealt primarily with economic issues. As such, Mishustin is one of the most informed Russian officials in regard to the true state of the domestic economy. At the same time, he is not a member of the siloviki clans, and he does not seem to share the extreme anti-Western views widely shared within Russia’s security services (Current Time TV, November 11, 2022). Thus, it is logical to assume that, once in power, Mishustin would be more likely to offer Ukraine and the West negotiations for a peaceful settlement of the war than other potential successors.

According to the Russian Constitution, it is the head of government who assumes the duties of the president in the case of the latter’s incapacity (Constitution.ru, accessed September 5). This was the case, for example, after the resignation of President Boris Yeltsin, when then–Prime Minister Putin acted as head of state until the presidential elections in the spring of 2000.

Prior to Prigozhin’s rebellion, Mishustin regularly traveled abroad. For example, in May 2023, he visited Beijing where he was received by Chinese President Xi Jinping (Government.ru, May 24). However, after the events of June 24, the prime minister’s foreign activities sharply decreased. He did not attend the BRICS summit, though, as the individual in charge of the economy, he would have been most effective in discussing all the issues on the agenda, including various economic integration projects. He will also not replace Putin at the G20 summit, where the state of the global economy is set to be the primary subject of discussion.

This suggests that, following the attempted coup, Putin has become wary of any contact between Mishustin and the leaders of other states, especially China and India. Both Beijing and New Delhi are important partners for Moscow, but they are increasingly concerned about Putin’s adventurous and unpredictable foreign policy. Within these circumstances, it is natural for a suspicious, aging dictator to fear that a younger, far less odious leader could negotiate more effectively in exchange for “some adjustment” in the Kremlin’s policies.

These considerations can be applied to the same extent to another potential “successor”—namely, Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin. Overall, Sobyanin might carry even more weight within the Kremlin “power vertical” than Mishustin, having formerly served as the governor of Tyumen region, head of the Presidential Administration and head of the Government Staff (Mos.ru, accessed September 5). Nevertheless, as mayor, his foreign contacts are more effectively and legally restricted.

Lavrov, unlike Mishustin and Sobyanin, does not possess such administrative and political weight. Nor is he an independent player. For two decades in office, he has proven himself to be Putin’s faithful weathercock, incapable of defending his own opinions, much less pursuing his own ambitions. Therefore, it is safe to say that Putin does not feel especially threatened by Lavrov.

Overall, it seems that Mishustin may represent the greatest direct threat to Putin. If this is indeed true, that likely means the Russian premier will no longer serve as the head of the Russian delegation at major international events, though he will likely be able to maintain his contacts in the Commonwealth of Independent States and Collective Security Treaty Organization. It will also give credence to speculation that tensions are growing within the Russian elites due to the failing war and have been further aggravated by Prigozhin’s mutiny and subsequent demise. And Putin’s increasing suspicions may lead him to commit more mistakes that could further exacerbate this tenuous situation.

On September 1, the ruling Georgian Dream party announced the initiation of impeachment procedures against President Salome Zourabichvili (Facebook.com/KobakhidzeOfficial, September 1). The ruling party’s discontent stems from Zourabichvili’s recent visits to Berlin, Brussels and Paris. Georgia is a parliamentary republic. In Georgia’s constitution, the president has weak powers and is merely the formal leader of the country. The president does possess representative functions, giving the position the right to represent Georgia in the international arena, though that requires government approval.

In the most recent cases, the Georgian Dream government did not grant Zourabichvili the necessary permissions. She, nevertheless, proceeded to visit each European capital. The Georgian president used personal funds, public transport or personal contacts in traveling to meet with German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier (Facebook.com/SalomeZourabichvili, August 31), European Council President Charles Michel (Facebook.com/CharlesMichel, September 1) and French President Emmanuel Macron (Facebook.com/FormulaGE, September 6). Official Georgian diplomatic missions did not take any part in organizing the visits.

The ruling party accuses Zourabichvili of a “gross violation” of the constitution. Party officials point out that, according to the country’s constitution, Georgia’s domestic and foreign policy is carried out by the government. Thus, the president does not have the right to make visits without the government’s consent.

Zourabichvili was still in the European Council meeting with Michel when she learned of the impending impeachment. The possible impeachment shocked officials in Brussels, as the Georgian president’s European tour was predicated on one goal: to convince her European colleagues to award Georgia official European Union candidate status.

Many European politicians have expressed solidarity with Zourabichvili in this. The chairman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the German Bundestag, Michael Roth, on his X (formerly known as Twitter) page recently expressed such sentiments: “President Zourabichvili is a true European leader.” He went on to describe that it is not Zourabichvili who is threatening Georgia’s EU candidate status, but the Georgian Dream party with its poor governance and this impeachment attempt (Twitter.com/MiRo_SPD, September 1). On September 8, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, during a visit to Georgia, mentioned that the possible impeachment “risks to further increase the counterproductive polarization” within the country (Eeas.europa.eu, September 8).

The Georgian Dream government has given no sign that it will reverse its decision. Even so, it has little chance of successfully implementing the impeachment procedure. If the Georgian Constitutional Court confirms the violation of constitutional norms by Zourabichvili, the final decision on impeachment must be made by Georgia’s parliament. And Georgian Dream does not have the necessary votes in the legislative body to independently implement the impeachment procedure without the opposition’s support.

Considering Georgian Dream’s recent pro-Russian and pro-Chinese tilt, the opposition will almost certainly not support the authorities (see EDM, May 25, August 10). Moreover, Zourabichvili is a rather controversial figure. She has no party affiliation but was elected to the presidency with active support from the ruling party. She initially had low popularity ratings among the population, and Georgian Dream had to use enormous resources to promote her election. Zourabichvili has gradually begun to distance herself from the ruling party since becoming president.

Notably, the Georgian president can still wield her weak powers in effective ways. The right to pardon prisoners is one tool Zourabichvili has already used to put pressure on the ruling party. She recently pardoned an opposition media manager arrested on dubious claims, greatly angering the government. Now, a possible pardon for former President Mikheil Saakashvili is on the agenda. While Zourabichvili has repeatedly stated that she will never do this, her progressive falling out with Georgian Dream may cause her to reconsider her position. Some in the opposition refuse to believe in the sincerity of the president’s pro-Western direction until she pardons Saakashvili. In fact, it has been reported that “the opposition presented conditions to the president: if she pardons former President Saakashvili, then they will not join the impeachment” (Tagesschau.de, September 1). Yet all parties deny that this ever happened.

The government further accuses Zourabichvili of deliberately preventing Georgia from obtaining the long-awaited EU candidate status with her visits to Europe. Paradoxically, Georgian Dream party leader Irakli Kobakhidze also claims that the president is trying to take credit for recent successes in the EU integration process (Facebook.com/KobakhidzeOfficial, September 1). Zourabichvili is generally greeted more kindly than the Georgian Dream leaders in Europe. Her attention to the Georgian population’s pro-European sentiments has made her into the standard-bearer for pro-EU Georgians (Eurasianet, June 2).

Russian politicians and officials have increasingly criticized Zourabichvili and praised the Georgian Dream government. Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council and former president, characterizes the current Georgian government as “pragmatic.” He also notes that “in Georgia, there are still ‘rabid, crazy, strange people.’ … Here is the current president of Georgia—she is a Frenchwoman who categorically opposes the development of her country’s economy” (RT, August 26). Zourabichvili was indeed born and raised in France, possesses dual Georgian-French citizenship and was once the French ambassador to Georgia.

Nevertheless, the Georgian public’s solidarity with its president is growing. Zourabichvili, upon her return from Europe, made a special address to the nation. In her remarks, she seemed full of hope and practically threatened the government herself: “You [the Georgian people] elected me as a supporter of Europe. … Let them not dream of my resignation. Moreover, I will travel everywhere, I will go to all the capitals of Europe. Georgia will never return to the Russian yoke. We will stand together for our rightful place in Europe. If the authorities understand this—it will be good. Otherwise, their future depends on it” (Facebook.com/SalomeZourabichvili, September 7).

It remains unclear how the current conflict will end. Previously, the ruling party repeatedly threatened Zourabichvili with impeachment or a lawsuit in the Constitutional Court. The previous conflict between the president and the government arose when she refused to appoint some Georgian Dream ambassadorial candidates (Agenda.ge, March 30, 2022).

The picture seems to be more or less the same for both Brussels and Moscow: the pro-Russian government is threatening to impeach the pro-European president. The Kremlin is certainly pleased with these developments, while the EU and Georgian society are alarmed as to what this portends for the country’s future.