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The appointment of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State under
President Trump has sparked discussions on the future direction of
U.S. foreign policy, particularly in relation to the South Caucasus
region. Rubio, known for his hawkish stance and internationalist
views, will play a significant role in shaping the administration’s
approach to global affairs. His comments on Iran, AUKUS, and other
key issues suggest that the U.S. may adopt a more assertive foreign
policy, though uncertainties remain regarding how these changes
will manifest in the South Caucasus.

Rubio’s approach to foreign policy, which prioritizes American
strength on the global stage, contrasts with the isolationist
tendencies of former President Trump. However, Rubio’s expertise,
honed through years of work on the Senate Foreign Relations
Committee and Senate Intelligence Committee, positions him as a
potential leader in shaping U.S. foreign relations. Despite his
background and experience, Rubio will face challenges, particularly
given his previous conflicts with President Trump and the
unpredictability of the administration.

How about the possible implications for the South
Caucasus region? The future of the South Caucasus in the context of
Rubio’s role and the broader Trump administration remains
uncertain, at least for now…

Policy Shifts Toward Iran: Rubio’s tough stance
on Iran, especially his commitment to preventing its nuclear
capabilities, could significantly affect the South Caucasus.
Azerbaijan, wary of Iran, may gain strategic importance as U.S.
pressure on Tehran escalates. However, a more aggressive approach
could also heighten regional tensions and destabilize neighbouring
areas.

U.S. Relations with Georgia: Georgia’s
alignment with the U.S. is vital for regional stability and will be
closely scrutinized under the new administration. Rubio’s policy
decisions could influence Tbilisi’s future, particularly in terms
of closer U.S. ties or opposition to the current government.

Russia’s Role: The region’s reliance on Russia
for security may increase amidst an unpredictable U.S. foreign
policy. The South Caucasus remains a strategic area of competition,
and changes in U.S. policy could either strengthen or weaken
Russia’s influence, potentially forcing regional states to choose
sides.

Azerbaijan, which has long prioritized strengthening ties with
the United States, finds itself at a crossroads as it moves into a
new era of diplomacy with Rubio at the helm. Throughout its history
of statehood, Azerbaijan has made concerted efforts to establish
solid political and economic relations with the U.S. Yet, during
the Biden administration, relations faced challenges, particularly
due to a perceived bias toward Armenia, fueled by the influence of
the Armenian lobby. In Azerbaijan, Biden will be remembered as a
president who, according to many, allowed the Armenian narrative to
dominate American foreign policy toward the region. His decision to
pardon his son and Antony Blinken’s tenure, marred by dishonesty,
further eroded trust in the administration.

With Rubio now in power, Azerbaijan may have a more balanced
diplomatic partner. Rubio’s foreign policy stance, rooted in
strength and security, aligns closely with Azerbaijan’s national
interests. However, Rubio’s appointment also comes at a time when
U.S. policy toward the South Caucasus is still unclear. Initial
indications reportedly suggest that there are pro-Armenian voices
within the new administration. For example, Marco Rubio himself,
and Tulsi Gabbard, nominated for the position of Director of
National Intelligence, have expressed pro-Armenian positions. Their
views will likely influence the White House’s policy, however,
these figures could wield considerable influence in shaping U.S.
policy toward Armenia and Azerbaijan, potentially complicating the
dynamics of the U.S.-Azerbaijan relationship.

We should of course note that, the Armenian National Committee
of America (ANCA) continues to work relentlessly to undermine
relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The ANCA, despite the
potential consequences, has long tried to sow discord in
U.S.-Azerbaijan relations. Which has been noticeable during the
Biden administration. Their (ANCA) actions, including submitting
testimony in support of Rubio’s confirmation as Secretary of State,
are part of a broader strategy to keep the U.S. aligned with
Armenian interests, regardless of the geopolitical realities at
play. It’s unfortunate to observe how one lobby’s policies diverge
from those of the country it represents, often enjoying greater
representation than the country itself. Despite the Armenian
authorities’ evolving and hopeful approach to relations with
Azerbaijan, the lobby continues to adopt a provocative stance. This
ongoing influence from Armenian lobby groups highlights the
challenges the U.S. government faces as it seeks to balance
competing interests in the region.

On the other hand, Rubio’s hawkish policies may also be met with
resistance from those in the U.S. who view a more isolationist
stance as preferable. President Trump’s unpredictable approach to
foreign relations, which included clashes with NATO allies and a
strained relationship with his own Cabinet members, left a legacy
of instability in U.S. foreign policy. Rubio’s ability to lead will
depend on his ability to navigate the internal contradictions
within the administration and stay true to the strategic goals he
has outlined.

Despite these challenges, Rubio’s early statements have already
given Azerbaijan hope for a renewed, more balanced relationship
with the U.S. His approach to foreign policy, characterized by
strength and pragmatism, could lead to closer economic and military
ties between the two countries. However, the actions of lobbying
groups like the ANCA, which continue to push for policies that
favour Armenia, could complicate these efforts. Rubio will need to
carefully navigate the political landscape to ensure that U.S.
policy reflects the evolving realities of the South Caucasus,
rather than being swayed by outdated alliances or political
pressures.

In any case, Rubio’s appointment signals a potentially
transformative period for U.S.-Azerbaijan relations. With a firm
belief in America’s role as a global leader, Rubio’s policies could
foster a stronger relationship with Baku. Yet, Azerbaijan must also
contend with the continued influence of Armenian lobby groups,
which remain intent on shaping U.S. policy to the detriment of
Azerbaijan’s interests. The coming months will determine whether
Rubio can overcome these challenges and chart a course for
U.S.-Azerbaijan relations that benefits both countries.