Opinion: Can Georgian Dream replicate Viktor Orbán’s success? Likely no.

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Georgian Dream and Viktor Orbán

Georgian philosopher Giga Zedania draws parallels between the upcoming parliamentary elections in Georgia, scheduled for October 26, and those held in Hungary. According to Zedania, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s electoral tactics are detrimental to democracy, but they do not foster a sense of extreme alienation from the West or an existential threat for Hungarian voters. This is because Hungary is already a member of the EU and NATO—unlike Georgia.

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Giga Zedania notes that in April 2022, Viktor Orbán’s far-right party, Fidesz, won Hungary’s parliamentary elections for the fourth consecutive time. According to Zedania, Georgia’s ruling party has adopted Fidesz’s strategy as a guiding model, but it lacks the necessary tools or the ability to effectively implement them.

By “tools,” Zedania refers to Hungary’s mixed electoral system, which combines proportional and majoritarian elements. In contrast, Georgia employs only a proportional system, a significant disadvantage for the ruling party, Georgian Dream.

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Zedania further explains that in Hungary, Orbán’s party controlled all major television channels, hindering the opposition’s ability to convey its message to voters. However, there are three opposition channels in Georgia.

Additionally, Orbán successfully capitalized on Russia’s war against Ukraine: the elections in Hungary took place just a month after the Russian invasion, when widespread shock still lingered. In this context, Orbán positioned himself as the West’s sole ally of the aggressor, likely instilling a pragmatic hope among voters.

Now, two and a half years later, the fear of Russia has not completely dissipated, but it has significantly weakened.

Finally, Zedania asserts that while Orbán’s electoral tactics are damaging to democracy, they do not create a sense of complete alienation from the West or an existential threat for Hungarian voters, as Hungary is already a member of the EU and NATO.

Given all this, Zedania concludes that Georgian Dream is unlikely to replicate the success of Fidesz and Orbán.