As the United States and Israel reportedly gear up to bomb Iran, the European Union prepares for a potential direct war with Russia. Although a large-scale conflict in Europe is not expected to occur this year, the ongoing transformation of the existing world order is unlikely to proceed without severe turbulence that could eventually lead to a significant confrontation between several European countries and the Russian Federation.
By Nikola Mikovic
“If you want peace, prepare for war” is a strategy many nations have used for centuries. However, it is somewhat questionable if the EU wants peace. Unlike the United States, which is allegedly forcing Ukraine to reach a ceasefire agreement with Russia at any cost, the vast majority of the 27-nation bloc’s leaders encourage Kyiv to continue fighting.
More importantly, several EU and NATO members have openly announced their plans to send troops to Ukraine. Such a move would put the Kremlin in a rather tricky position. Given that, more than three years after launching its full-scale invasion of the neighboring country, Russia still hesitates to strike bridges over the Dnieper River or the so-called decision-making centers in Kyiv, it is far from certain that its military would dare to attack European forces in Ukraine.
However, that does not mean European troops would be deployed along the current front line. Instead, they would most likely be stationed in western, central, and possibly southern Ukraine, allowing the war-torn nation to send many soldiers from those regions to the Donbas and the East. However, not all EU members will participate in such an operation.
“Ukraine’s allies from across Europe did not all agree on the proposed deployment of troops in the country to back up an eventual peace deal with Russia, and only some want to take part,” French President Emmanuel Macron said on March 27 in Paris.
That is when the summit of the so-called “coalition of the willing” occurred. Representatives from around 30 countries discussed possible “security guarantees” for Kyiv after the Ukraine war ends. One of the main topics was the potential deployment of a military contingent on Ukrainian territory.
Although the war continues, some European countries reportedly plan to send a military team to Ukraine “in the coming weeks” to determine how many troops will be needed and where they should be deployed. They are also considering the possibility of sending air and naval forces to the Eastern European country after the war is over.
In the meantime, most, if not all, EU and NATO members will continue increasing defense spending and preparing for a potential large-scale war in Europe. Denmark has, for instance, recently announced that it is speeding up its plans to draft women into the military, while Sweden is eyeing a rise in defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2030.
Over the years, Croatia has also been increasing its defence budget and aims to continue implementing such a policy. Germany seems to have the same plans. Its military, the Bundeswehr, recently got the all-clear for a massive increase in investment after parliament voted to exempt defence spending from strict debt rules.
Therefore, it is no surprise that German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock insists that forming a European defence union is “no longer a matter of if, but how fast.” Polish General Maciej Klisz, on the other hand, claims that his country will have to reintroduce compulsory military service, describing such a move as “inevitable.” Poland is also heavily investing in its military. According to reports, the nation’s Armaments Agency has ordered the first batch of 111 Borsuk infantry fighting vehicles for the Polish army.
Even in Moldova, the authorities plan to create a “larger, modernised army” that should be “better integrated into the national security system.” The giant car manufacturer Porsche is preparing to start making tanks and weapons in Germany. At the same time, Berlin has officially launched its first permanent foreign troop deployment since World War II—a 5,000-strong armored brigade in Lithuania.
“We have a clear mission: to ensure the protection, freedom and security of our Lithuanian allies on NATO’s eastern flank,” Brigadier General Christoph Huber stressed, claiming that in doing so Germany is also “protecting NATO territory and Germany itself.”
According to the dominant narrative, Russia – although unable to seize the mid-sized city of Pokrovsk in the Donbas, let alone achieve any of its strategic goals in Ukraine – is allegedly preparing to invade NATO member Lithuania, and potentially even Poland. The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, insists that “Europe must be ready for any threat, at every level of society.”
Over the years, the EU has been portraying Russia as the biggest threat to its security. As a result, there are fears in Europe that Russia’s attack on NATO’s eastern flank is a matter of time. In reality, it is far more probable that Germany, Poland, Lithuania, and other NATO members will eventually invade Russia’s exclave of Kaliningrad, which borders Lithuania and Poland.
Fully aware that Russian President Vladimir Putin is fighting the war of attrition in such a way to attrit Russian, rather than Ukrainian military – particularly by suffering severe losses in both manpower and equipment storming Ukraine’s well-fortified positions in the Donbas – it is no surprise that policy makers in the West do not want Moscow to end its adventure in Ukraine yet. From their perspective, the longer the war lasts, the weaker the Russian army will become.
Thus, once Russia’s military, as a result of Putin’s policy, finds itself on the brink of collapse, the EU may seize the opportunity to resolve its economic and social problems at Russia’s expense. Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban argues that “they” (he did not specify precisely who) want to change the EU “from a peace-project to a war-project.”
Indeed, following the Second World War, the European Union was created as a “peace project,” aiming to prevent another war in Europe. There were, however, wars on the European continent in the meantime, but not among EU members.
A potential war with Russia would undoubtedly lead to a radical transformation of the European Union. But what might deter the West from launching a direct war against Russia is the Kremlin’s nuclear doctrine. However, if Russia, following Ukrainian occupation of parts of Russia’s Kursk region, did not dare to bomb empty administrative buildings in Kyiv, it is unlikely that it would use nuclear weapons against European countries where the children and grandchildren of Russian oligarchs and officials live and study.
<p>The post Will some NATO members invade Russia? first appeared on The Liberum.</p>
