Albania’s newly appointed Ambassador to Azerbaijan, Besart Kadia, presented copies of his credentials to Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov.
Day: October 29, 2024
The authoritative democracy watchdog Europe Elects, which ensures a centralized resource for electoral insights, published its findings regarding the alleged rigging of the October 26 elections in Georgia, which show that “on top of the electoral integrity violations reported by observers, the widespread tampering in favor of the government is visible also in the detailed official results counts.”
The election results were denounced by local election observers and the opposition as widely rigged. President also rejected the results of the elections, saying the elections were “a total falsification” with the use of modern technologies “to whitewash” them, a “Russian special operation” and a” new type of hybrid warfare waged against our people”
Europe Elects says that using publicly available data from the Central Election Commission of Georgia, its analysis was able to independently reproduce the signs of fraud.
The organization says that “the analysis of the election data shows that the biggest telltale sign of tampering with the results is implausible deviations from normal distribution when it comes to voting shares of a relevant party.” It further notes that “In more rural municipalities, the governing GD raked up disturbingly high vote shares much in excess of the expected.”
Europe Elects notes that “in the 2020 Georgian parliamentary election, deviations from a normal distribution were observed somewhat less when it comes to GD, indicating increased tampering with the results in a closely contested election in 2024.”
Yet, the distribution of vote shares is not the only variable that can be employed to uncover indications of fraud. Another important sign, also with Georgia’s case, is the so-called comet tail of increasingly higher vote shares, leading to a higher vote count peak than expected.
The name of such a phenomenon “Russian tail” comes from Russian vote distributions where the custom is blatant and well observed, whereby increasing turnout leads to increasing vote share.
In the case of Georgian Dream results the watchdog notices a “similar drift of progressively higher vote shares in election stations outside the ‘honest cloud’ of more legitimate and plausible clustering. Which likewise leads to unconvincingly high peak, much in excess that are observed elsewhere.”
The watchdog says that the final indication in their analysis is “the so-called Sobyanin-Sukhovolski method”, which is used in analyzing electoral results for anomalies. It notes that in several polling stations GD got nearly all of the registered votes, “much higher than the supporting share of population would indicate.”
The analysis further illustrates that: “If in normal legitimate voting a party has 40% support within the electorate, it receives ~400 votes from 1000 voters on, leading to stations track the trend line without too much divergence. This takes place in the capital Tbilisi and other urban municipalities.”
The picture however changes “when moving onto the more rural and traditionally government-voting municipalities: GD receives nearly 100% of the amount that is registered for the station in several dozens of instances, the data points close to the black line of 100% of registered voters.”
Noting that the organization has followed and analyzed hundreds of elections during the past decade, Europe Elects concludes “it is safe to conclude that the 2024 Georgian parliamentary election exhibits clear fudging with the results, on top of the electoral violations reported elsewhere by observers.”
The crucial Parliamentary elections took place on October 26 and were largely seen as geopolitical elections by the opposition, with Georgia either choosing its future with the EU of falling into the Russian sphere of influence. The ruling Georgian Dream framed it largely as peace vs war elections. According to the official results by the Central Election Commission, as a result of the elections the Georgian Dream party won with 53.9% of the vote. The Coalition for Change received 11.03 percent, the United National Movement 10.16 percent, Strong Georgia 8.81 percent and For Georgia 7.77 percent. The Georgian Dream thus won 89 out of 150 Parliament seats. Voter turnout was 58.94 percent.
Also Read:
https://t.co/QlU1j6WnDA
The News And Times Review #NewsAndTimes #NT #TNT #News #Times #World #USA #POTUS #DOJ #FBI #CIA #DIA #ODNI #Trump #TrumpNews #Israel #Mossad #Netanyahu #Ukraine #NewAbwehr #OSINT #Putin #Russia #GRU #Путин, #Россия #SouthCaucasus #Bloggers…— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) October 29, 2024
All four of Georgia’s main opposition forces – Unity/UNM, Coalition for Change, Strong Georgia, and For Georgia- say they reject the official results of the disputed October 26 parliamentary vote, alleging a complex voting fraud scheme and vowing to deny legitimacy to the new parliament.
Some political forces who passed the threshold directly promised not to take seats in Parliament and to withdraw their party lists, while others indirectly indicated the same. The parties also pledged to continue their struggle to prove the fraud and demand new elections conducted by an “international electoral administration.”
According to official results released by the Central Election Commission, the ruling Georgian Dream party won with nearly 54 percent of the vote, while the combined share of four opposition parties that passed the 5 percent threshold was 37.8 percent. The results, which show significant gains for the ruling party after the 2020 elections, came as a shock to the opposition and pundits.
“We refuse parliamentary mandates, privileges, and funding. We completely withdraw our party list,” said the Coalition for Change, the alliance that won the most votes among opposition forces, according to official results. Leaders of the Unity to Save Georgia coalition, led by the United National Movement, made a similar pledge. The Strong Georgia coalition, led by Lelo for Georgia, said it wouldn’t enter parliament, while Giorgi Gakharia, the ex-prime minister who heads the For Georgia party, assured that his party “won’t give legitimacy to the [Georgian] Dream’s illegitimate parliament.”
Unlike other opposition figures, Gakharia’s party leaders didn’t take the stage during the massive October 28 rally in front of the parliament building called by President Salome Zurabishvili to protect opposition votes, but the former prime minister and his party colleagues were present at the rally. In his media remarks, Gakharia hinted that his decision not to join the other three opposition forces was due to his unwillingness to share the stage with the United Nations Movement.
President’s Role
A key figure in leading the opposition effort against recognition of the 2024 elections is President Salome Zurabishvili, who has called the vote a “Russian special operation.” After the official results were released, Zurabishvili united the main opposition parties and spent hours giving interviews to international media or on the phone with Western leaders in an apparent effort to convince the West that the elections were rigged.
The Western response has ranged from cautious to harsh and critical, but mostly short of legitimizing or delegitimizing the elections. International observer missions speak of violations and have yet to assess the overall fairness of the vote. And opposition parties and local observer missions say they are working to gather evidence to prove elections were stolen.
In addition to general reports of vote-buying and voter intimidation before and on election day, there are mounting allegations that the ruling party may have resorted to a complex rigging scheme, including through the collection of voters’ personal information and the misuse of the verification machines used in the largely electronic vote.
- Georgian Opposition, Observers Collect Evidence to Reveal Alleged Vote Fraud Scheme
- Observer Mission Talks of Main Scheme of Large-Scale Election Fraud, Seeks Annulment of Results from 189 Polling Stations
The Strong Georgia coalition has called on authorities to make public the list of those who are registered as having voted in certain precincts, while other opposition forces say the opposition wasn’t given enough access to audit the machines for electronic voting and are demanding an impartial investigation. (The Central Election Commission responded to Strong Georgia’s request by saying that the creation of such a database of voters who were at the polls would violate the rules on the protection of personal data.)
The official results give Georgian Dream 89 parliamentary seats, more than enough for a simple ruling majority but far short of the 113 seats needed for a constitutional majority.
According to the Georgian Constitution, the first session of the new Parliament is to be convened “not later than the 10th day after the official announcement of the results of the parliamentary elections.” Only after the new Parliament assumes full power can parties officially refuse their mandates and withdraw the rest of the party lists.
Georgian Dream leaders have dismissed the allegations of fraud as “disinformation”, arguing that the opposition and civil society don’t want to “accept the will of the people.”
“None of the [opposition] parties has any value for the Georgian parliament,” Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said on October 27. “If they want, they can enter [the parliament], if they don’t, they may not.”
Follow our Election Live Blog for more updates.
Also Read
With more than 99% of precincts counted, official results from the Central Election Commission give the ruling Georgian Dream party a 54.23% lead. The combined total of opposition parties that passed the 5% threshold is 37.44%. While the Georgian Dream celebrates the victory, the opposition denies the legitimacy of the elections and observer organizations speak of “large-scale” rigging and demand the annulment of the official results. The OSCE/ODIHR shared its first preliminary assessment, saying the elections “unfolded amid entrenched polarization in an environment marred by concerns over recently adopted legislation, its impact on fundamental freedoms and civil society.”
We have collected the international reactions to the election results:
Lin Jian, China’s Foreign Spokesperson: “Georgia has held a smooth parliamentary election. We respect the choice of the Georgian people and sincerely wish the country stability and prosperity. China stands ready to work with Georgia to further advance bilateral relations.”
Andrzej Duda, President of Poland: “Just had a phone call with President Zurabishvili. We discussed the deeply concerning situation in Georgia following recent parliamentary elections. I reiterated Poland’s unwavering support for the Euro-Atlantic aspirations of the Georgian nation.”
Joe Wilson, Chair of the U.S. Helsinki Commission: “Yesterday, President Zurabishvili was joined by members of the Georgian opposition to announce to the world that Georgian parliamentary election results were illegitimate, call on the Georgian people to take to the streets and protest, and ask for the international community’s support as they fight to save their democracy and chosen path to Euro-Atlantic integration. I stand with President Zurabishvili and the Georgian people in this fight and warn the Georgian Dream government against using violence to silence protesters. The world is watching.”
Ursula von Der Leyen, President of the EU Commission: “The people of Georgia have been fighting for democracy. They have a right to know what happened this weekend. A right to see that irregularities are investigated swiftly, transparently, independently. As free and fair elections are at the core of European values.”
Gitanas Nausėda, President of Lithuania: “Concerns about parliamentary election fraud must be addressed. Georgians have the right to democratic elections. Lithuania will continue supporting the European dream of the Georgian people. [He wrote this in a social media after a phone conversation with President Salome Zurabishvili].
Maia Sandu, President of Moldova: “Moldova stands with all Georgians fighting for freedom, democracy and a European future.”
Farah Dakhlallah, NATO Spokesperson: “The International Election Observation Mission has noted the uneven playing field in which Georgia’s elections were held, which undermines public trust in the outcome. Reports of election-related violations should be fully investigated.”
Lars Løkke Rasmussen, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Denmark: “Denmark supports the democratic right of the Georgian people to have free and fair elections. Concerned by OSCE/ODIHR’s observations indicating that elections were marred by an unlevel playing field, pressure and tension. We take these findings very seriously.”
Foreign Ministry of Czech Republic: “Czechia is concerned about reported irregularities during the parliamentary elections in Georgia. We are closely following the situation in the country. We call on all sides to refrain from violence. The Georgian authorities should honour democratic values and reverse the actions that threaten Georgia’s European direction.”
Radek Sikorski, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland: “The President of Georgia has announced that the parliamentary elections were falsified. Europe must now stand with the Georgian people.”
HR/VP Josep Borrell: “We call on the Central Election Commission of Georgia and other relevant authorities to fulfil their duty to swiftly, transparently and independently investigate and adjudicate electoral irregularities and allegations thereof. Those irregularities must be clarified and addressed. That is a necessary step to re-building trust in the electoral process… In line with the European Council Conclusions of 17 October, the EU calls on Georgia to adopt democratic, comprehensive and sustainable reforms, in line with the core principles of European integration…In this context, the EU recalls that any legislation that undermines the fundamental rights and freedoms of Georgian citizens and runs counter to the values and principles upon which the EU is founded, must be repealed.” [Read the full statement here]
Espen Barth Eide, Foreign Minister of Norwey: “I am concerned by the OSCE/ODIHR report on the elections in Georgia that documents numerous irregularities, pressure on voters, intimidation and an unlevel playing field. Uncertainties relating to the integrity of electoral process undermine confidence and must be addressed.”
Edgars Rinkēvičs, President of Latvia: “Georgian people have European dream, no one has the right to steal this dream through intimidation and manipulation. Full solidarity with the people of Georgia and President Salome Zurabishvili.”
Jean-Noël Barrot, Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs of France: “The preliminary findings of OSCE/ODIHR confirm our concerns about recent developments in Georgia, where parliamentary elections have just been held. We expect the authorities to investigate allegations of irregularities. Fundamental freedoms and politican pluralism must be respected so that Georgia can return to the path of the European Union.”
Maria M. Stenergard, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Sweden: “Seriously concerned by the irregularities in Georgia’s elections reported by OSCE/ODIHR and other observers. To restore trust I urge Georgian authorities to credibly address these concerns in an inclusive political process. We are ready to work on Georgia’s European Integration with all forces in parliament truly committed to European values and principles. Laws restricting civil society and fundamental rights undermine Georgia’s EU aspiration and increase polarisation. They need to be repealed.”
Charles Michel, President of European Council: “Following the parliamentary elections in Georgia, I intend to put Georgia on the agenda of the informal EUCO in Budapest. We note the OSCE/ODIHR preliminary assessment and call on the Central Election Commission and other relevant authorities to fulfil their duty to swiftly, transparently and independently investigate and adjudicate electoral irregularities and allegations thereof. These alleged irregularities must be seriously clarified and addressed. We reiterate the EU’s call to the Georgian leadership to demonstrate its firm commitment to the country’s EU path, also in line with EUCO June and October conclusions. Constructive and inclusive dialogue across the political spectrum is now paramount. The November EUCO will assess the situation and set the next steps in our relations with Georgia,”
Caspar Veldkamp, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Netherlands: “Parliamentary elections in Georgia resulted in a lead for the ruling party, but were marred by an uneven playing field and substantial irregularities on election day. I call on the Georgian authorities to address the concerns expressed by OSCE/ODIHR internatioanal election observers. Georgia’s next government should recommit to democratic principles if it wants to fulfil its promise to the Georgian people to bring the country closer to the EU. I commend the work done by OSCE/ODIHR during its important Election Observation Mission in Georgia.”
German Federal Foreign Office: “Germany fully supports preliminary findings and conclusions of the OSCE/ODIHR international election observation mission on yesterday’s parliamentary election in Georgia. We are concerned about the reported tense environment and irregularities which must be addressed and remedied. Germany is closely following further events in Georgia and calls on all parties to exercise restraint and avoid violence and further polarisation. The handling of the election outcome and government formation will also affect the future progress of Georgia and its European path.”
Rasa Juknevičienė, MEP: “Desperate to cling to power, Georgian Dream has created a toxic electoral atmosphere far from democracy. The government is blatantly using the Kremlin’s playbook to conduct these elections. We are closely monitoring election observers’ evaluations.”
Sergey Lagodinsky, MEP: “No observers will be able to certify fraud. But: Article 78 of Georgia’s Constitution obliges the state to advance integration into EU. The “winner” of the elections ran clearly against this obligation. Election that produces anticonstitutional result needs a rerun!”
Baiba Braže, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Latvia: “All of Latvia carefully follows parliamentary elections in Georgia and is waiting for the OSCE/ODIHR assessment from international observers. We note with concern reports on various irregularities during the elections.”
Alicia Kearns, Member of Parliament of the United Kingdom: “The multiple reports from Georgia which suggest election rigging and breaches of Georgian electoral law confirm the fears many have expressed over the last few months. The people of Georgia deserve free and fair elections.”
Rihards Kols, MEP: “The people of Georgia deserve free and fair elections, yet reports of violence, vote-buying, and intimidation indicate that the recent elections fall far short of these standards. Without genuine democratic processes, Georgia risks drifting away from its European path. The EU must take these developments seriously, standing firm on the principles of democracy and the rule of law.”
Gabrielius Landsbergis, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania: “Elections must be based on freedom and fairness. I take allegations of irregularities in any election very seriously and will be paying close attention to the developing situation in Georgia.”
Žygimantas Pavilionis, Member of the Lithuanian Parliament: “Georgian Nightmare is stealing the European future of Geogian nation, trying to consolidate the Russian or Belarussian way back to the Russian past instead of consolidating its future, freedom, democracy, souvereignity and territorial integrity inside the EU and NATO.”
Margus Tsahkna, Estonian Minister of Foreign Affairs: “Reports of irregularities in Georgian elections give rise to grave concern. Closely following the evaluations of international and local observers.”
Viktor Orban, Hungary’s Prime Minister sent his congratulations before the official preliminary results: “Congratulations to Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze and the Georgian Dream party on their overwhelming victory at the parliamentary elections today. The people of Georgia know what is best for their country, and made their voice heard today!”
Ilham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan: “I warmly congratulate you on the results of the parliamentary elections held in Georgia and the victory of the Georgian Dream – Democratic Georgia party, which is the leading political force in your country. By voting, the citizens of Georgia expressed their support for development, stability, and traditional values. I believe that the results of the elections will serve the all-round development and prosperity of Georgia.”
Aleksey Pushkov, Senator of the Russian Federation: “There may still be unrest in Georgia, but it appears that the West’s “regime change” in Georgia by supporting the opposition has, simply put, failed. Georgian Dream won with more than 54% of the vote, an absolute majority. The West’s plan was to turn Georgia into its semi-colony, promising it a happy integration into the multi-gender and “non-binary” family of European nations. For some reason, however, this did not appeal to the majority of Georgian voters. Nor did the demagoguery of President Zurabishvili, who looks more and more like a relic of the bygone Saakashvili era. Saakashvili, by the way, also dreamed of a new pro-Western revolution in Georgia – and where is it now?”
Grigory Karasin, Head of the Russia’s Federation Council’s Committee on International Affairs: “According to reports from Tbilisi, the parliamentary elections in Georgia took place in a calm atmosphere. The high voter turnout of about 58% is another indicator of civic activity. The nearly 53% of the vote received by the ruling Georgian Dream, as well as the entry of four opposition parties into Parliament, promises an active period in the country’s domestic politics. We trust that it will be conducted in a predictable and civilized manner. This is in the interest not only of Georgia, but of the entire Caucasus region.”
Marko Mihkelson, Member of the Estonian Parliament: “Georgia’s apparent election result falsification makes it impossible to recognize their legitimacy. By rigging elections, one cannot join the European Union, but can end up back in Russia’s embrace.”
Nikol Pashinyan, Prime Minister of Armenia: “I congratulate the Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Kobakhidze and the party “Georgian Dream” on the victory in the parliamentary elections. I believe that the strategic relations between Armenia and Georgia will continue to develop sustainably for the benefit of the brotherly Armenian and Georgian peoples.”
More to follow…
Also Read: