Day: January 28, 2024

The news that Ansar Allah (Houthi) fighters have fired on the USS Carney in the Red Sea (Friday, 26 Jan.) underscores the shocking failure of the Biden Administration, which initiated airstrikes on the Houthis this month with no plan for “victory” beyond hoping that the mere presence of US warships would intimidate them into surrendering.

Even a junior Pentagon or State Department analyst could have advised the Administration that, based on everything we understand about the Houthis and their successful defeat of Saudi Arabia (and, by proxy, DC), lobbing a few missiles in their general direction was not going to result in an ocean of white flags raising over Aden.

In other words, it was the kind of doomed operation that, had cooler (i.e. non-political) Pentagon heads prevailed, would never in a million years have been launched. There was simply no possibility of success and 100 percent probability of failure.

How did it all start? In response to the ongoing Israeli attack on Gaza (codified as “potential genocide” in Friday’s International Court for Justice ruling), Ansar Allah announced last month that they would not allow international shipping to service any commerce to or from Israeli ports. They judged the killing of more than 25,000 Palestinian civilians to be a “genocide” and cited obligations under international law to take steps to end the killing.

Whatever one’s view on the legality of the Houthi decision to interdict Israeli shipping in the Red Sea, the fact is by virtue of their unique geography they have the ability to do so. It is also a fact that the Houthis did NOT explicitly target US or US-flagged shipping unless it was headed to or from Israeli ports.

In short, it was not our fight. Until Biden made it our fight.

On January 11^th, Biden announced that he was ordering the US military to launch airstrikes against Yemen, but very soon it became clear that far from being intimidated into surrender, Biden’s move was just what the Houthis wanted: a David’s slingshot chance at Goliath.

As it turns out, the Bidens were a Goliath intent on sacrificing the US standing in the world, military deterrence, US economy, and even US servicemembers in its blind support of Israel.

And, as any of these junior analysts (or seasoned analysts) could have predicted, the hits just keep coming for Biden.

Thursday, the US Navy attempted to escort two Maersk tankers – the Maersk Detroit and the Maersk Chesapeake – through the Red Sea loaded with weapons for Israel. This after nine rounds of US airstrikes on the Houthis. The US show of force backfired into an unprecedented and “Black Hawk Down” kind of moment where after several missiles were launched the Maersk lines reversed course followed by the US Naval warships. It was a massive defeat for the notion of US military superiority – but don’t hold your breath for it to be reported in the mainstream media.

So Friday the Houthis again fired on US military ships in the Red Sea and have again scored a massive success for “the resistance,” which is a truly global movement against the albatross that the Biden Administration has taken on its shoulder.

Here is the main point: an ill-advised US policy of airstrikes against the Houthis has been an enormous gift to them while in no way diminishing their ability to fulfil their mission. What will you do next, Joe Biden? They are immune to your bombs. They have no military-industrial-complex. They just shoot your ships. Are you going to launch a ground invasion? In an election year? Dead Americans in Yemen for Israel? Really?

Even the most comatose US Members and Senators are starting to wake up to the fact that Joe Biden – who seems unable to even speak English – is taking the country to war without any authorization.

Attacks against Biden’s forces in Iraq, Syria, the Red Sea, the Mediterranean will escalate. And he is backed into a corner. What’s next?

This article was published at RonPaul Institute

On 15 January 2024, the Indian army chief said that militancy in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) was under control. Before that, the home minister indicated that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government at the Centre had been successful in controlling terror in J&K. Both these statements are at best directed at boosting the morale of security force personnel and script a narrative that appeals to the partially informed. The on-ground situation depicts a different story. 

In 2023, according to the J&K Police, 14 targeted attacks on civilians, as compared to 31 in 2022, took place. A total of 12 civilians and 76 militants were killed. The figures in both these categories were significantly less than the 2022 ones, buttressing official claims of success. The police claim that only 20 local youths joined militancy in 2023, as compared to 130 in 2022. While this can be interpreted as a breakdown in the militants’ recruitment abilities, it also indicates a continuation of more foreigners among active militants, in the foreign-local recruitment ratio. Of the 76 militants killed in 2023, 55 were foreigners (Pakistanis).

Whether this reduction in numbers can be interpreted as a loss of local support for militancy, however, is debatable. Government claims of the absence of public protest and stone-throwing incidents by youths as indicators of peace coexist with claims of the existence of widespread public despair in the region. While the state administration has certainly succeeded in preempting any incident of dissent and public outcry, these have been achieved through instruments such as the repeated shutdown of internet and mobile phone services “in the interest of sovereignty and integrity of India, the security of the State and for maintaining public order.” While there has been a decline in such incidents as compared to previous years, accompanying shutdowns have also been imposed in Jammu’s Rajouri, Poonch, and Kishtwar districts. Moreover, the lack of forward movement in restoring the political process continues to be contentious between the ruling BJP and the Opposition parties.        

The dominance of Pakistani militants certainly makes militancy in this erstwhile state a wee bit deadly. Experience shows that while most of the local recruits have a short life span and are mostly neutralised within a month of their recruitment, the better-trained and experienced foreign militants survive longer and add potency to the fledgling violent campaign. At the end of 2023, the security establishment took credit for the total number of active militants going down to only 31. Similar claims—of reducing the number of active militants to “double digits”—had been made in 2022 as well. Local recruitment as well as consistent cross-border infiltration has prevented the security forces from bringing the numbers down further. Further, these numbers don’t  consider the many faceless and part-time terrorists about whom the security forces have limited knowledge.  

The real and immediate challenge to peace in J&K in 2023 is repeated terror attacks in the Pir Panjal valley. This region has seen militancy once again over the past two years, after relative calm for a decade and a half. Linked to the phenomenon of the dominance of foreign militants and unabated infiltration bids from across the border, significant instances of terror in 2023 were concentrated in the twin districts of Rajouri and Poonch, proximate to the LoC. 28 of the 33 security force personnel who lost their lives in J&K in 2023 were killed in these two districts. Several attacks involved terrorists who took advantage of the mountainous terrain by hiding in caves and ambushing approaching forces. Until the end of the year, no firm plan to tackle this new phenomenon had been put in place.

Such terror attacks gravely militate against the official narrative of tranquility and may have thus led New Delhi to mount pressure on the J&K security establishment to deal with it firmly. Desperate measures, however, can be counter-productive. Three civilians, who were detained by the army in the Poonch-Rajouri area following a deadly ambush on an army convoy on 21 December, were found dead. Another five civilians were badly injured due to alleged torture by the security forces. A 29-second video that went viral on social media showed suspected army personnel stripping three men and putting chilli powder on them. Although the government announced compensation and army authorities acted swiftly in removing three senior officers from their posts, such incidents have revived the rather dormant narrative of rampant human rights violations by security forces.

New Delhi is nevertheless determined to ensure zero terrorism in J&K and solve the militancy problem by 2026. Following a high-level meeting on 2 January 2024, the army unveiled its plan to launch Operation Sarvashakti, a large-scale initiative on the lines of Operation Sarpvinash of 2003, which was launched against terrorists south of the Pir Panjal range. This operation will focus on pursuing militants suspected to be hiding in the dense jungles, mountains, and caves dotting the area. These coming weeks will test the effectiveness of this no-holds-barred approach.

• About the author: Dr Bibhu Prasad Routray is Director, Mantraya, and Visiting Fellow, IPCS.
• Source: This article was published at IPCS

By Dr. Sandip Kumar Mishra 

Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Ching-te’s win in the recently held presidential elections in Taiwan is indeed historic. This is the third consecutive victory of a DPP candidate in a presidential election.

The DPP was formed in 1986, and the first party candidate to be elected as president of Taiwan was Chen Shui-bian in 2000. Barring the eight years (2008-2016) of former President Ma Ying-jeou of the Kuomintang (KMT), the DPP has held the presidential position for 23 years. In fact, it appears set to do so not only for the coming four years but even beyond.  

The DPP has become an important force in Taiwan’s political landscape and decisively broken KMT’s dominance in Taiwanese politics. The KMT has a history of more than a hundred years; it was the most prominent actor in Taiwanese politics since the Republic of China was founded, and until 2000. The DPP was born through the Tangwai movement, which opposed the KMT’s authoritarian, one-party rule, and sought more democracy and freedom in the country. Many DPP leaders have been educated in western countries and aspire to make Taiwan a truly liberal, democratic country. At the beginning, DPP was more overt in its support for Taiwanese independence and thus had a contrasting position to the KMT. Gradually, however, the party has become more pragmatic. Rather than talking about independence, it focuses on maintaining the status quo, which is as good as independence in all practical terms.

The DPP’s growing strength is basically indicative of greater awareness of the looming China threat among the Taiwanese public. They believe that it is better to contest Chinese pressure than succumb to it. The KMT, on the other hand, emphasises that a ‘well-behaved’ Taiwan wouldn’t face Chinese threats of forceful unification. The Taiwanese people, however, are more convinced that China believes in the “historical inevitability” of unification—and no ‘good behaviour’ is going to change China’s perspective. Prevailing public opinion thus is that irrespective of behaviour, China will try to unify Taiwan at the earliest opportune time. They view the way forward as a Taiwanese approach that relies on strengthening military capabilities, broadening diplomatic outreach, and creating more substance in alliances and friendships with the US, Japan, India, and others, rather than being circumspect in its struggle against Chinese adventurism. The Taiwanese see the DPP as more aligned with this approach.

China’s growing assertiveness under President Xi Jinping is obvious to Taiwanese people. They took note of the 2020 National Security Law for Hong Kong, which made clear that China has little respect for the principle of ‘one country, two systems’. More recently, China’s negative reaction to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei in August 2022 was also evident of Beijing’s thinking on Taiwan. In the past year and a half, China has held two rounds of extensive war games near Taiwan, and Chinese jets have crossed the median line between China and Taiwan more frequently. Several Chinese balloons and drones have also moved into Taiwanese air space. All of these developments have made the DPP position’s stronger.

The economic repercussions of the contestation with China are also apparent to Taiwanese public and the DPP. In 2023, Taiwan’s economic growth rate was just 1.4 per cent. Disruptions to economic exchanges with China would create further challenges. Taiwan’s trade with China was around US$ 224 billion in 2023; overall, it accounts for one-fourth of all external trade. Taiwan, however, appears to be optimistic about separating this economic relationship from their political contestation. It is also hopeful that the strategy of diversifying economic relations would enable it to overcome difficulties. Taipei has sought to diversify through various efforts, such as the New Southbound Policy (NSP) that was articulated in 2016. In 2022, due to these efforts, Taiwan’s total investments in the countries covered by the NSP surpassed investments in China for the first time. Reports also suggest that the number of Taiwanese working in China has been steadily declining since 2014.

While the DPP victory is historic, it clearly also faces challenges. It seems, however, that the Taiwanese people—and not just the party and its leadership—have decided to take these challenges head on. 

• About the author: Dr. Sandip Kumar Mishra is Associate Professor, Centre for East Asian Studies, SIS, JNU, & Distinguished Fellow, IPCS.
• Source: This article was published by IPCS

NPR News: 01-28-2024 7AM EST

The Association of Azerbaijani Women of Europe “Ana Vatan”, which unites activists from several European countries, including the Netherlands, held a protest today in front of the Armenian Embassy in The Hague, Report informs.

At the initiative of the House of Azerbaijan, a protest rally was held in front of the European Union Tbilisi office demanding an end to discrimination and double standards, Report informs.