About the peace treaty
The Russian model of the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process assumes a “corridor”, i.e. unblocking of roads without Armenian control, endless delimitation of the border, and strengthening of Moscow’s position in the South Caucasus, according to political scientist Areg Kochinyan.
None of these points, in his opinion, will lead to lasting peace with Azerbaijan. He says “it is a constant that Russia does not want a peace treaty, but just a process”, i.e. discussions with its mediation, not conflict resolution.
“Moscow doesn’t need a final settlement”
Kochinyan emphasized that the final settlement of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan is not part of Moscow’s plans. It needs the continuation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict “albeit without Karabakh”:
“If it succeeds in settling relations, the sides will be freed of Russian influence and bludgeoning.”
According to the political scientist, the West also does not want to remain aloof from regional processes, but it is not clear to what extent. He believes that Turkey and Russia are ready to invest enough energy, resources and political will to preserve their role in the region. And what the West is ready to do for this is unclear.
Armenia needs to take into account the changing situation
The political analyst believes that it is not worth signing any document with Baku without specifying the principles of border delimitation, the logic of unblocking transport and political guarantees for its implementation. Otherwise, it will mean only a documentary confirmation by Armenia that “Artsakh is part of Azerbaijan, and Baku will put a stamp and close the issue”.
According to Kochinyan, this is what Azerbaijan wants and this is what Russia means when it speaks of the peace treaty.
He believes that if before the exodus of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh it was possible to separate these issues because one of them – the Karabakh issue – had no solution, the situation is different now:
“There are no Armenians in Artsakh, ethnic cleansing has taken place. It is not in Armenia’s interest to sign a treaty without resolving its own issues.”
“Three scenarios are possible”
Kochinyan presented three scenarios of how events may develop:
- “Azerbaijan agrees to a settlement, the establishment of relations, does not make any territorial claims to Armenia, and there are political guarantees [of the West] for all this.”
- “the West fails to bring Azerbaijan to the negotiating table, but not wanting to finally fall out of the region, it creates such a format: Azerbaijan is supported by Turkey and Russia, Armenia by Western countries”,
- “peace cannot be achieved, the West does not assume sufficient responsibility, Armenia remains [alone in the struggle] with the Russian-Turkish agreements.”
According to the political analyst, the first and second scenarios are dependent on the interests of the West, and if they are not realized, Armenia will need to find a “formula for peaceful coexistence” with Turkey and Azerbaijan.
“The worst case scenario is not that it will be necessary to reach an agreement with Azerbaijan and Turkey, even at the cost of concessions. The worst is when these concessions will be made for you and someone will negotiate instead of you. And then you will be forced to accept it all and you will get nothing in return,” Kochinyan said.
“Armenia should offer economic partnership to Turkey and Azerbaijan”
The analyst believes that in order to establish long-term peace in the region, Yerevan should try to act as an economic partner for Ankara and Baku:
“We need to develop as many infrastructure and energy projects as possible and announce them periodically.”
According to Kochinyan, Armenia should strengthen its defense capabilities. This is not only about reforming the Armed Forces, but also about establishing military-political ties, and cooperation with those states that are not ready “to see Armenia’s elimination or its further weakening in this geopolitical struggle.”
He emphasized that peace is established in case of balance of power, so Armenia should solve the problems it faces to protect its territorial integrity and sovereignty.
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About the peace treaty
