By Shairee Malhotra
Just as one high-stakes election concluded in Europe, campaigning is in full swing in France.
On 9 June, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the country’s National Assembly, in line withArticle 12of the French Constitution which can be evoked in times of political crises or deadlock, and called a snap election. The shock move was inspired by Macron’s crushing defeat to the French far-right in the European Parliament (EP) elections that took place from 6-9 June. The far-right Rassemblement National or National Rally (RN)garnered31.4 percent of the vote share (30 seats), while Macron’s coalition and his Renaissance party, part of the liberal Renew Europe group that is still the third largest in the EP,gainedonly 14.6 percent of the French vote (13 seats). The French snap election, taking place three years before the next presidential election in 2027 when Macron cannot seek a third term according to the French Constitution, is scheduled for 30 June, with a second round on 7 July.
The European Parliament elections are often viewed as a wider referendum on national politics and voter sentiment in member states. According to projections and opinion polls, the RN, led by Marine Le Pen and her prime ministerial candidate Jordan Bardella, are currently in the lead with 37 percent support. The President of the centre-right Les Républicains party, Eric Ciotti, has already agreed to ally with National Rally.
On the other hand, Macron’s co-opting of the far-right’s talking points on contentious issues such as immigration rendered him deeply unpopular with France’s political left. Accompanied by fears of the right’s ascendance, this has enabled the formation of the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP), comprising Green, Socialist and Communist parties and the far-left La France Insoumise (LFI). With their goal “to construct an alternative to Emmanuel Macron and combat the racist project of the extreme right”, the now-united left fares second in the polls with 28 percent support. Trailing behind in third place is Macron’s centrist Ensemble coalition, which includes his Renaissance Party, and the Modem and Horizons parties, with 18 percent support, despite Macron’s warnings that a far-right or far-left victory, with their divisive policies, could speak a civil war.
What was Macron thinking?
Ample speculation has transpired with regards to the calculations behind Macron’s decision to call a snap election, which he has a high chance of losing. Some analystspostulatethat his goal is to prohibit the far-right from further advancement, while othersrationalisethe European elections as more of a “protest vote” to express “wider discontent rather than actual electoral intent”. An article in Le Monderefersto Macron’s decision as “a choice to play France at poker”.
The President himself has described his decision as a “serious and heavy” one, but an “act of trust” in the French voter “to make the best choice for themselves and future generations”. The snap election is a way for Macron to demonstrate that he cares about popular sentiment and voter concerns while forcing citizens to think carefully about how they want their country governed. If the National Rally does win, Macron likely hopes that its ineptness in governance will be exposed in advance of the 2027 presidential election.
Moreover, the loss of the parliamentary majority in the 2022 election that had Macron return to power with his Ensemble coalition winning 250 seats but short of the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority forced the President to controversially override the Parliament to pass reforms and laws on contentious issues like immigration and pension reform. Foreseeing increasing governing troubles and more no-confidence votes (Macron has already survived 28 such motions since re-assuming power in 2022), Macron’s snap election puts the decision and its timing back into his own hands.
Crucially, in line with an overall low turnout for European elections,French voter turnoutin the 2024 European election was barely 52 percent, revealing that the outcome may not serve as an accurate predictor for national parliamentary elections. An Ipsos surveypredictsa turnout rate of 60-64 percent for the snap election.
France at a crossroads
A potentially far-right French government is likely to have implications for France’s relationship with the EU as well as the functioning of the EU itself and deeper EU integration. Both Le Pen and Bardella have had close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and unlike Macron and his transatlantic posture, the fact that neither of the two particularly supports NATO poses consequences for the future of global security given France’s key role. The far-right at the French helm would also raise questions about the ongoing support for Ukraine and dampen its prospects of joining the EU or NATO. Even while generatingcontroversy, events such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the uncertainties of American politics vindicated Macron’s ideas of European strategic autonomy that have provided a vision for the EU in dark times. Yet losses in the upcoming election may dent Macron’s credibility and legacy.
In the current French lower house of Parliament which has a total of 577 seats, Macron’s Renaissance party has 169 seats, while National Rally has 88. For French voters, immigration, inflation, social security, and public services are some key issues, many of which have been politically exploited by the far-right.
Whether Le Pen can seize the momentum from the European elections and gain a far-right majority remains to be seen. While Macron would continue to remain president until 2027 since these are parliamentary, not presidential elections, a far-right victory would create a“cohabitation” situationand force Macron to govern with a politician of a different political camp in the form of a far-right prime minister, presumably the 28-year-old Bardella. In this power-sharing arrangement, the president would remain in charge of the nation’s foreign policy and defence, while the prime minister would take control of domestic and economic matters. One way or another, the outcome of the elections is likely to result in a seismic shift in the French government and make way for unstable politics and decision-making.
There have beenfive instancesof presidents dissolving the National Assembly in the Fifth Republic’s political history. The last such case was in 1997 when centre-right former president Jacques Chirac called for snap elections, which paved the way for an unexpected Socialist majority and resulted in a ‘cohabitation’ situation, during which France’s famous 35-hour working week reform was passed. On the other hand, France has hadthree “cohabitation” periodssince the founding of the Fifth Republic in 1958.
As French voters head to the polls to choose between the far-right’s Eurosceptic nationalist agenda or the president’s staunchly pro-European ambitions, the globe’s seventh-largest economy stands at an existential crossroads.
A majority for the National Rally wouldresultin France’s first far-right prime minister since the Second World War and a step closer to winning the bigger prize of the 2027 presidential election. As progressive and centrist politicians across Europe grimace at the prospect, one leader that’s sure to grin away is Putin.
- About the author: Shairee Malhotra is an Associate Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
- Source: This article was published by the Observer Research Foundation.