By Théo Bourgery-Gonse
(EurActiv) — French voters go to the polls this Sunday (30 June) for the first round of snap legislative elections – but the country’s two-round first-past-the-post system makes projections complex and political tactics numerous, ultimately benefiting the surging far-right.
On 9 June, President Emmanuel Macron announced he would;dissolve the National Assembly;by calling snap legislative elections – a constitutional prerogative only he can use – after his Ensemble centrist coalition received a trouncing from the far-right Rassemblement national (RN), following the European Elections.
France has a semi-presidential system. The president has been elected by direct universal suffrage since 1965. Legislative elections are also held by direct universal suffrage.
The prime minister is appointed by the president, but usually comes from a political party belonging to the majority in the National Assembly. The president and prime minister can therefore belong to two different parties.
A fractured political scene
The dissolution of the National Assembly announced by Macron sent shockwaves across the country, with the political landscape experiencing a dramatic reshaping within days.
The conservative Les Républicains;split in two, with party chief Eric Ciotti opting for a coalition with the RN, in a unilateral move that most party officials condemned. A wide ‘far-right union’ with fringe party Reconquête!;failed at the last minute, seeing most of Eric Zemmour’s allies expelled.
Meanwhile, left-wing movements, severely divided during the EU campaign, managed within hours of the Assembly’s dissolution to;rally together;as a new ‘Front populaire’ coalition – a move Macron’s advisors and political strategists;failed to see coming.
As for the centre, it is all but certain Macron’s coalition will crumble, with over half of the seats expected to be lost. Macron is so unpopular that candidates have taken him off their campaign posters and pamphlets.
This new tripartite split significantly blurs voting strategies in light of the election’s two-round system. This makes accurate polling close to impossible and begs the question of how much the cordon sanitaire, a traditional agreement to keep the far right at bay, will hold.
How it all works
Unlike European elections, which follow a proportional voting system, French presidential and legislative elections are based on a two-round first-past-the-post system.
In essence, the first two candidates that come on top in the first round on Sunday (30 June) automatically make it to the second round. Moreover, candidates who secure at least 12.5% of the vote share of those;registered;– and not, as is often the case, of those;who actually cast a vote;– also make it through.
Voters then must decide which of the two top candidates wins in the second round on Sunday (7 July).
This system has significant repercussions on political outcomes and voting behaviours.
Political analysts will keep a close eye on participation rates: The higher the voter turnout, the more likely that more than two candidates meet the 12.5% threshold – a situation known in French as ‘triangulaires’.
Pollsters estimate participation rates this time around could soar to 65%, way above 2022’s 47.5% turnout – creating more;triangulaires;than ever.
This makes it all the harder to stop the far-right from winning in the second round – as votes of those who do not support RN might be split between two candidates (Macron and the left), thus making the RN candidate more likely to win – and raises doubts if the;cordon sanitaire;will survive.
What to expect next week
Political strategies will play a crucial role since a number of issues will come into play.
Should there be a three-candidate face-off – a distinct possibility in dozens, if not hundreds, of constituencies, the question arises of whether one of the anti-RN candidates should drop out of the race, so the anti-RN vote can rally behind a single candidate at the cost of some voters’ preferences?
Such tactical voting has been used in the UK, between Liberal Democrats and Labour, to hold off the Conservatives.
Another issue for voters of the left and Macron’s camp is: If their candidate does not make it to the second round, should they redirect their vote to the other anti-RN candidate to block the far right?
And most importantly: Will leading politicians give clear indications on who to vote for in the second round?
Legislative elections amount to a series of 577 local elections, which follow their own electoral logic rather than party lines.
Recent polls show a confusing picture of what the National Assembly could look like because voting behaviour ahead of the second round is hard to anticipate.
However, some possibilities are being floated already.
Up to 220 leading left-leaning political and civil society figures – including former Macron ministers – signed a letter published in;Le Monde;on Tuesday (25 June) for “democratic forces” to “agree to prevent the RN from getting an absolute majority at the National Assembly”.
This could mean that, in triangulaires where the left coalition came third after the centre and the far right, the left-wing candidates could be asked to stand down and redistribute their votes to Macron’s camp in the name of the ‘Republican front’.
But this does not appear to be the obvious choice for all:
In instances where there will be a left vs far-right face-off, media reports suggest Macron may call on his voters to block both, as candidates from the far-left La France insoumise, part of the ‘Front populaire’, are judged by some to be against the French state and too lax in combating antisemitism within its own ranks following the Hamas terrorist attacks in Israel.
In the name of fighting against “extremes” and equating the RN with the left coalition, this would weaken the;cordon sanitaire;altogether and encourage voters to sit out the second round, warned some political analysts.
On the sidelines of the European summit in Brussels, Macron promised “great clarity” in his voting instructions for the second round in the event of a duel between the RN and the left.