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Writing in Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Welcome to Wider Europe newsletter, Europe editor Rikard Jozwiak discusses possible developments ahead of the European Union summit on December 14-15 against of the backdrop of Hungary’s looming veto on the opening of accession talks with Ukraine. Although he notes that in his understanding, from talking to EU officials and EU member states diplomats, “everyone is generally in favor of Tbilisi getting candidate status”, those countries’ EU statuses could be at risk if they become “collateral damage” in the debate over Ukraine.

“Most EU countries — at least publicly — want Ukraine to start accession talks as well. Hungary is the key exception,” Jozwiak explains, adding in this scenario, the Baltic countries, comprising Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, share the perspective that ‘if Ukraine fails, then everyone fails,’ adding a layer of complexity to the ongoing debate.

The author of the newsletter recalls that on December 4 letter Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban sent letter to the European Council President Charles Michel, in which the Hungarian Prime Minister argued that “the commission’s recent proposal related to the accession process of Ukraine marks the end of the European Union’s enlargement policy as an objective and merit-based instrument. The European Council is now called upon to endorse this proposal, without previously having the opportunity to discuss it.” The letter urged the European Council President not to invite the European Council to decide on these matters in December “as the obvious lack of consensus would inevitably lead to failure.” and stressed this should be avoided as a “counterproductive scenario “for the sake of unity, our most important asset.”

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On November 8, the European Commission recommended that Georgia be granted the status of an EU candidate country and that accession negotiations be opened with Moldova and Ukraine. The EU Commission also recommended accession negotiations with Moldova as soon as the necessary degree of compliance with the membership criteria is achieved.

Hungary, an EU member state, has been vocally opposed to opening accession talks with Ukraine. The European Council, made up of the heads of state and government of the member states, will take final decisions on the commission’s recommendations at the December 14-15 summit, which is expected to continue over the next few days due to the large number of issues on the agenda.

Also Read:

• 13/11/2023 – Jozwiak: Tbilisi Likely to Get Candidate Status; Conditions Must Be Met for Accession Talks
• 06/11/2023 – Jozwiak: Georgia’s Candidate Status Likely to be Conditional
• 06/09/2023 – Jozwiak: EUHR Borrell’s Visit “the Last Attempt”
• 26/06/2023 – Expert: Budapest May Block Ukraine EU Negotiations, Unless Georgia Given Candidacy

“Present trends are racing our planet down a dead-end three-degree temperature rise,” United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres recently warned. He is right. Unless we act decisively – beginning at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) underway in Dubai – the threat that climate change poses to humanity will become nothing short of existential.

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Op-ed by Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Vice President of the European Commission and Wopke Hoekstra, European Commissioner for Climate Action

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Already, climate change is a major risk multiplier for conflict and instability. Extreme weather events like floods and heatwaves have led to the forcible displacement of more than 20 million people each year since 2008. By 2050, more than one billion people may have insufficient access to water, and more than 200 million may be forced to migrate.

Water scarcity and food shortages are fueling violent conflicts in the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, and other parts of the world. Of the 20 countries that are most vulnerable to climate change, 12 are mired in conflicts. Authoritarian countries are taking advantage of the turmoil, attempting to gain influence over fragile governments and secure access to raw materials. Unless our mitigation and adaptation efforts are equal to the climate crisis, these trends will accelerate and spread, with truly catastrophic results.

The European Union is doing its part to avoid such an outcome. With the European Green Deal, we are aiming, by 2030, to reduce our greenhouse-gas emissions by at least 55%, ensure that more than 42.5% of our energy comes from renewable sources, and increase energy efficiency by at least 11.7%. We strive to become climate-neutral by 2050.

Central to our strategy for achieving these goals is putting a price on carbon dioxide emissions. But imposing a carbon price only on EU production risks simply pushing carbon-intensive activities beyond our borders. Such “carbon leakage” would mean losing jobs in the EU without achieving any reduction in global emissions.

That is why we implemented the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which ensures that the most carbon-intensive imports are subject to a carbon price in line with that put on European goods. This is not protectionism. Rather, it is a necessary step to ensure that our ambitious decarbonization measures are helpful for the global climate.

We also want to take responsibility for the greenhouse-gas emissions caused outside the EU by our consumption of imported goods, which why we are “greening” our trade policy. In particular, we want to ensure that the products we import no longer contribute to deforestation – one of the greatest threats to the climate and biodiversity. We know that the requirements stemming from this EU law are causing tensions with some of our partners. We are ready to support them in implementing these measures and to address together the challenge of deforestation.

The green transition will shake up the global balance of power. For the EU, this process implies both benefits and risks. On one hand, it will reduce our dependence on fossil fuels – a dependence that, as Russia’s war against Ukraine has demonstrated, carries high political and economic costs. On the other hand, it could create new dependencies, such as on producers of critical raw materials. Avoiding that outcome – and bolstering our security – requires us to ensure diversity of supply. To that end, we must strengthen our ties with Africa, Latin America, and South Asia, developing tailor-made partnerships that allow for value-addition and job creation in our partner countries.

While Europe bears an important historical responsibility for climate change, we account for just 7.5% of global emissions today, meaning that the actions we take at home can have only a limited impact on the world’s climate. The only solution to climate change is a global one. At a time when multilateralism is under growing pressure, agreement on how to meet the targets set at COP21 in Paris would not only ensure a safe future for our children, but also would show that multilateral institutions can still deliver.

COP28 must shift the world into higher gear. The EU is committed to pushing for the phase-out of unabated fossil fuels and all fossil-fuel subsidies, the doubling of energy-efficiency measures, and the tripling of renewable-energy capacity worldwide. But to make this happen, we need the buy-in of the other industrialized economies, as well as China, which, despite its tremendous progress in renewables, still burns more coal than the rest of the world combined.

The green transition will succeed only if it is just and benefits all. The most climate-vulnerable countries have contributed little to climate change but risk bearing the brunt of it. While they must be part of the global race to net-zero emissions, they need and deserve greater support when it comes to climate adaptation and the green-energy transition. The EU is prepared to deliver such support – and help our partners avoid repeating our past mistakes.

The EU, its member states, and the European financial institutions are already the largest contributors of public climate finance to developing economies, having delivered €28,5 billion ($30 billion) in 2022. Moreover, the developed economies are finally on track to meet the goal of mobilizing $100 billion annually for climate adaptation and mitigation in the developing world. But we must think beyond this pledge, which ends in 2025.

It is time to align both public and private financial flows with the goals laid out in the Paris climate agreement, and take climate finance from billions to trillions. At the same time, the international financial institutions and multilateral development banks need to be reformed, so that they can do more to support the delivery of global public goods. And the new Loss and Damage Fund needs the appropriate financial firepower. The first substantial pledges are encouraging. Here, too, China will be an indispensable partner.

In an increasingly multipolar world, shaped by the return of great-power politics, concerted international cooperation might seem far-fetched. But in the face of such a global existential challenge, we must succeed.

The op-ed was first published on Dec 1, 2023 by Project Syndicate

The new public opinion poll commissioned by the National Democratic Institute (NDI), a U.S. nonprofit organization, finds that the overwhelming majority of Georgians support EU integration, poverty and economic problems are the main causes of insecurity in Georgia, and emigration trends are seen as worrisome, among other findings.

The survey, published on December 11, was fielded by the Caucasus Resource Research Centers (CRRC) for NDI between October 12-November 4, 2023 with the financial assistance of the UK’s good governance fund, and was carried out through nationwide face-to-face survey (excluding occupied territories) with 2,068 respondents and has an average margin of error plus, minus 2,2%.

Lacking Confidence in Political Parties, Institutions

The poll finds that 54% of the respondents believe that the government of Georgia is “doing a good job”, which is a 10% increase from the previous poll.

The Prime Minister’s work is evaluated as being “average” by 37% and “good” by 29% of responders. Meanwhile, the President’s performance is seen as “average” by 41% and “good” by only 16%. In addition, the Parliament’s work is evaluated as “average” by 44% and “good” by 13% of respondents.

62% of respondents believe that none of the political parties present in Georgia represent their interests and 53%, think that the MPs do not take the opinions of the people like them into account.

NDI reports that 42% of Georgia’s citizens remain “politically undecided”. NDI notes that the majority do not know or do not say which party is closest to them: “Declared support for individual parties is so low that it cannot be taken as a guide to the outcome of future elections.”

When asked to rate the parties individually, 19% name the ruling party Georgian Dream as the party closest to them. Meanwhile, only 4% named the United National Movement, the largest opposition party in Georgia, and 12% named other smaller opposition parties. Notably, ethnic minorities and youth are more likely to say that no party is close to them.

Support for the EU integration

NDI has registered a decline from the 2022 polls in the opinion of residents, who declare that Georgia should have exclusively pro-Western foreign policy. 37% think that Georgia’s foreign policy should only be pro-Western, while 36% think that it should be pro-Western, but the country should maintain good relations with Russia.

For the majority of Georgians – exactly 79%, the EU remains the undisputed destination of choice. When asked if the government is doing everything in its power to achieve EU membership, 36% say it isn’t doing enough, 29% say it is doing everything in its power and 16% believe the government is doing nothing to achieve this goal.

NATO support has declined a little, with 67% still approving Georgia’s goal to join NATO, down from 73% in March of 2023.

NDI notes that every second Georgian says that EU and NATO membership is best for Georgia’s national security. When asked which countries and unions Georgia should have the closest political cooperation with, 60% say the EU, 38% the US, 20% Russia, and 17% NATO.

Majority of the respondents believe that EU and USA should be Georgia’s closest economic allies. 59% have named the EU, 34% say US, 25% Russia and 18% Turkey.

Among the top threats to Georgia’s national security, majority name Russian Military Aggression (27%), Occupation of Abkhazia and Tskhinvali region/South Ossetia (13%), and Russian propaganda (11%).

Feeling of security and the state of democracy in Georgia

When respondents were asked about their opinion on the direction in which Georgia is moving, 33% said that Georgia is moving in the right direction, while 37% disagreed and noted that the movement is in the wrong direction. 45% remain optimistic about Georgia’s future.

46% of respondents say that Georgia is a democracy, which is an increase of 16% compared to 2022. 69% believe that life in Georgia is safe. The main causes of insecurity are poverty (40%), unemployment (30%), inflation (28%) and crime (26%).

National and local level concerns

According to the survey, rising prices, jobs and poverty remain the top national concerns. When asked about the most important national problem facing respondents and their families, 37% said inflation, 35% said jobs, 28% said poverty, and 23% said territorial integrity.

The survey found that respondents believe the situation in Georgia has improved over the past 10 years in the areas of health care (45% say the situation is better), freedom of speech (41%), women’s rights (39%), and education (33%). Meanwhile, the situation has worsened in terms of poverty (49% say the situation is worse than before) and crime (48%). Regarding territorial integrity, 56% say it has stayed the same, while 36% say it has gotten worse.

An overwhelming 83% of respondents believe that mental health problems such as depression and anxiety are a problem in Georgia. Yet, 86% of respondents say they have not even thought about seeking help from a mental health professional in the past year. Notably, 90% – an absolute majority – believe that mental health services should be covered by government insurance.

At the local level, homeless animals (22%), roads (22%), clean streets (15%), and traffic (14%) are cited as the top infrastructure issues in cities and towns. Meanwhile, air pollution (42%) and food safety (23) top the list of environmental concerns.

Economic situation in Georgia, the issue of emigration

For 49% of respondents, the economy is in average condition. The biggest problems facing the Georgian economy are unemployment (58%), low wages (48%), inflation (43%) and poverty (23%).

Notably, compared to four years ago, people report that their households are earning more, but despite earning more, the majority say they can afford the same or less than they did five years ago.

The poll shows that one Georgian in ten (12% of respondents) can’t afford to buy food, while one in four (28% of respondents) can afford to buy food but nothing else. Most respondents – 58% – do not have confidence in the government’s ability to solve Georgia’s economic problems.

According to the survey, 80% of respondents believe that emigration has a negative impact on Georgia. 62% say that they personally know someone who has emigrated in the last 12 months. Among the reasons for emigration, 65% cite low salaries in Georgia, 56% – lack of jobs, 28% – high prices and cost of living, and 24% – poor living standards.

Also Read:

• 04/02/2023 – Close, yet far: What does the NDI poll tell us about ethnic minorities?
• 16/09/2022 – NDI Poll Reflects EU Support, Disenchantment with Government
• 27/01/2022 – NDI Poll: Economy Top Concern, Lack of Confidence in Political Parties

On December 11, Speaker of the Parliament of Georgia Shalva Papuashvili met with President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev as part of the official visit of the Georgian delegation to Baku. According to the Georgian Parliament, President Aliyev and Speaker Papuashvili positively assessed the “close friendship” and “partnership” between the two countries and peoples.

The Azerbaijani President and the Speaker of the Parliament discussed the current and planned activities in the areas of transport, energy, culture and people-to-people relations. The sides also touched upon the regional security issues, the developments regarding Karabakh and the prospects for the establishment of a lasting peace.

“Today, the importance of the Caucasus is growing not only regionally but also internationally, in large part, thanks to successful Georgian-Azerbaijani partnership. This partnership rests on our shared understanding of the need for durable regional peace and stability. We have discussed regional conflicts and security developments in detail in this regard…I look forward to ever greater partnership and wish President Aliyev and our Azerbaijani brothers and sisters greater peace, security, and prosperity,” Speaker Papuashvili tweeted.

The Georgian parliamentary delegation headed by Speaker Papuashvili left for Baku on December 10 at the invitation of the Speaker of the Azerbaijani Milli Majlis Sahiba Gafarova. The Georgian delegation includes the Vice-Speaker of the Parliament Archil Talakvadze, deputy leader of the ruling Georgian Dream faction Greta Tsitsava, members of the parliamentary majority Savalan Mirzoev, Zaur Dargali, and the United National Movement-United Opposition “Unity is Strength” faction member Ramaz Nikolaishvili.

“Glad to be back in Baku, the diamond of the Caspian, on an official visit. Looking forward to fruitful meetings with Azerbaijan’s leadership for further reinforcing the friendship bonds between two nations,” Speaker Papuashvili tweeted.

On December 11, Speaker Papuashvili also met with his Azerbaijani colleague, the Speaker of the Azerbaijani Milli Majlis Sahiba Gafarova. “We agreed to make our Parliamentary cooperation formats more coordinated, structured, and active. The Parliamentary Committees and Friendship Groups will do their share of this important work but, also, Speakers will be personally involved in deepening our fruitful cooperation,” Papuashvili tweeted.

This article will be updated to reflect the Georgian delegation’s further meetings with the Azerbaijani colleagues

Also Read:

• 07/12/2023 – President Aliyev: for Azerbaijan, the reliable transit route is through Georgia
• 09/10/2023 – President of Azerbaijan Visits Georgia
• 07/04/2023 – PM Garibashvili Meets with President Aliyev in Azerbaijan