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The U.S. Keeps Failing Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh


Against the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, combating authoritarian aggression has taken center stage in Washington’s foreign policy agenda. But given the West’s inaction in the face of yet another Azerbaijani assault on Nagorno-Karabakh this week—which resulted in the death of at least 32 people and the forced displacement of several thousand more—it is clear that not all crises are made equal.

During U.S. President Joe Biden’s remarks on Tuesday before the United Nations General Assembly, he asked “if we abandon the core principles of the United States to appease an aggressor, can any member state of this body feel confident that they will be protected?” Yet just hours prior, Azerbaijan launched an unprovoked assault on Nagorno-Karabakh following nine months of blockading the region’s 120,000 indigenous Armenians. The blockade was already causing critical shortages of food, medicine, fuel, and other basic necessities—forcing Karabakh’s Armenians into a position of dependence and subservience. Under these conditions, many Armenians will see no option but to leave their homes. But if Azerbaijan’s record of detaining civilians at its military checkpoint tells us anything, it’s that the ability for Armenians to flee persecution isn’t guaranteed.

A ceasefire announced on Wednesday appears to have largely brought the latest assault to a halt. Yet the latest fighting is a crisis the U.S. had every opportunity to prevent but spent months ignoring—prioritizing the preservation of energy ties with authoritarian Azerbaijan over the imminent threat to Armenian lives. The U.S. did not simply turn a blind eye to Azerbaijan’s longstanding attempts to impose its will on the Armenian people through starvation and force—it repeatedly emboldened and legitimized Azerbaijan’s coercive diplomacy by refusing to hold Azerbaijan accountable for its blockade. In standing by as Armenia was forced to engage in peace talks with a gun to its head, the U.S. appeared content with waiting until the Armenians of Karabakh were desperate enough to submit to Azerbaijan’s terms.

But the U.S. can learn from its past mistakes and make clear to Azerbaijan that its acts of aggression will not be rewarded. With negotiations between Azerbaijan and Karabakh’s Armenians on the horizon, the fate and status of the region’s Armenian population remains uncertain. What is certain, however, is that Azerbaijan cannot be trusted with their security.

Protesters clash with police as they call on Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to resign in central Yerevan on Sept. 19. Azerbaijan launched a military operation against the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region, warning it would "continue until the end" in the territory.Protesters clash with police as they call on Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to resign in central Yerevan on Sept. 19. Azerbaijan launched a military operation against the the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, warning it would “continue until the end” in the territory.Karen Minasyan—AFP/Getty Images

Prior to Azerbaijan’s assault on Nagorno-Karabakh, international legal experts including former International Criminal Court Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo and former U.N. Special Advisor on the Prevention of Genocide Juan Méndez warned that Azerbaijan’s actions constituted a violation of the United Nations Genocide Convention. Those concerns remain no less pertinent today—and the risks of further tragedy remain extremely high should the international community fail to take action and hold Azerbaijan to account.

During a recent U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasia Yuri Kim vowed that “the United States will not countenance any action or effort—short-term or long-term—to ethnically cleanse or commit other atrocities against the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh.” 

Read More: Column: Don’t Just Remember the Armenian Genocide. Prevent It From Happening Again

Despite this, the U.S. failed to match those words with any meaningful action, an approach that could create a credibility crisis and embolden other would-be aggressors. To rectify this, the Biden Administration should suspend military assistance to Baku via the enforcement of statutory restrictions outlined in Section 907 of the FREEDOM Support Act, which was enacted in the early 1990s in response to Azerbaijan’s first war on Nagorno-Karabakh and humanitarian blockade against Armenian civilians. Indeed, this is what the chairs of the Senate Foreign Relations and Armed Services Committees, Bob Menendez and Jack Reed, urged in a recent letter to Secretary Blinken.

For decades, successive U.S. administrations have waived Section 907 restrictions on national security grounds. The State Department says it is reviewing assistance to Azerbaijan but refuses to publicly enforce restrictions out of fear this would undermine peace talks with Armenia and push Baku into Moscow’s arms. But if withholding the enforcement of these restrictions was meant to compel behavioral change in Baku, then clearly this strategy has failed.

The U.S. must also directly target Azerbaijani officials complicit in the perpetration of human rights abuses with sanctions, including under the Global Magnitsky Act. The Biden Administration can use Thursday’s upcoming emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council convened by France to pursue robust guarantees for Nagorno-Karabakh’s Armenians. This must include an international peacekeeping force on the ground and a humanitarian mission that ensures Armenians are not left at the mercy of Azerbaijan. 

How the U.S. responds to Azerbaijan’s latest assault on Nagorno-Karabakh will be a test of its commitment to not only combating authoritarian expansionism—but also in the duty to prevent further atrocities. A failure to change course would not only threaten the survival of Nagorno-Karabakh’s Armenians, but send a dangerous signal to despots the world over.


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Karabakh’s Armenians start to leave en masse for Armenia – Audio Post


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STEPANAKERT, Azerbaijan :Ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh began a mass exodus by car on Sunday towards Armenia after Azerbaijan defeated the breakaway region’s fighters in a conflict dating from the Soviet era.

The Nagorno-Karabakh leadership told Reuters the region’s 120,000 Armenians did not want to live as part of Azerbaijan for fear of persecution and ethnic cleansing.

Those with fuel had started to drive down the Lachin corridor towards the border with Armenia, according to a Reuters reporter in the Karabakh capital, known as Stepanakert by Armenia and Khankendi by Azerbaijan.

Reuters pictures showed dozens of cars driving out of the capital at night towards the corridor’s mountainous curves.

The Armenians of Karabakh, a territory internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but previously beyond its control, were forced into a ceasefire last week after a 24-hour military operation by the much larger Azerbaijani military.

The Armenians are not accepting Azerbaijan’s promise to guarantee their rights as the region is integrated.

“Ninety-nine point nine percent prefer to leave our historic lands,” David Babayan, an adviser to Samvel Shahramanyan, president of the self-styled Republic of Artsakh, told Reuters.

“The fate of our poor people will go down in history as a disgrace and a shame for the Armenian people and for the whole civilised world,” Babayan said. “Those responsible for our fate will one day have to answer before God for their sins.”

The Armenian leaders of Karabakh said that all those made homeless by the Azerbaijani military operation and wanting to leave would be escorted to Armenia by Russian peacekeepers.

Reuters reporters near the village of Kornidzor on the Armenian border saw some heavily laden cars pass into Armenia. Armenia said 377 refugees had arrived by Sunday evening.

It was unclear when the bulk of the population might move to Armenia.

FEARS OF VIOLENCE

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has faced calls to resign for failing to save Karabakh. In an address to the nation, he said some aid had arrived but a mass exodus looked inevitable.

“If proper conditions are not created for the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh to live in their homes and there are no effective protection mechanisms against ethnic cleansing, the likelihood is rising that the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh will see exile from their homeland as the only way to save their lives and identity,” he said, according to an official transcript.

The situation could change the delicate balance of power in the South Caucasus region, a patchwork of ethnicities crisscrossed with oil and gas pipelines where Russia, the United States, Turkey and Iran vie for influence.

Last week’s Azerbaijani victory appears to end one of the decades-old “frozen conflicts” of the Soviet Union’s dissolution. President Ilham Aliyev said his “iron fist” had consigned the idea of an independent ethnic Armenian Karabakh to history and that the region would be turned into a “paradise”.

Armenia says more than 200 people were killed and 400 wounded in the Azerbaijani military operation.

FIRST KARABAKH WAR

Nagorno-Karabakh lies in an area that over centuries has come under the sway of Persians, Turks, Russians, Ottomans and Soviets. It was claimed by both Azerbaijan and Armenia after the fall of the Russian Empire in 1917. In Soviet times it was designated an autonomous region within Azerbaijan.

As the Soviet Union crumbled, the Armenians there threw off nominal Azeri control and captured neighbouring territory in what is now known as the First Karabakh War. From 1988-1994 about 30,000 people were killed and more than a million people, mostly Azeris, displaced.

In 2020, after decades of skirmishes, Azerbaijan, backed by Turkey, won a decisive 44-day Second Karabakh War, recapturing territory in and around Karabakh. That war ended with a Russian-brokered peace deal that Armenians accuse Moscow of failing to guarantee.

The Armenian authorities in the region said late on Saturday that about 150 tonnes of humanitarian cargo from Russia and another 65 tonnes of flour shipped by the International Committee of the Red Cross had arrived in the region.

With 2,000 peacekeepers in the region, Russia said that under the terms of the ceasefire six armoured vehicles, more than 800 small arms, anti-tank weapons and portable air defence systems, as well as 22,000 ammunition rounds, had been handed in by Saturday.

Space for 40,000 people from Karabakh had been prepared in Armenia. Azerbaijan, which is mainly Muslim, has said the Armenians, who are Christian, can leave if they want.

Pashinyan blamed Russia publicly on Sunday for failing to do enough for Armenia which he said would review its alliance with Moscow.

“Some of our partners are increasingly making efforts to expose our security vulnerabilities, putting at risk not only our external, but also internal, security and stability, while violating all norms of etiquette and correctness in diplomatic and interstate relations, including obligations assumed under treaties,” Pashinyan said in his Sunday address.

Russian officials say Pashinyan is to blame for his own mishandling of the crisis, and have repeatedly said that Armenia, which borders Turkey, Iran, Azerbaijan and Georgia, has few other friends in the region.

(Reporting by Reuters in Stepanakert, Azerbaijan; Felix Light near Kornidzor, Armenia, and Guy Faulconbridge in Moscow; Writing by Lidia Kelly and Guy Faulconbridge; Editing by Peter Graff, David Holmes and Barbara Lewis)


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Israel’s Massive Supply of Sophisticated Weapons to Azerbaijan – Audio Post


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On March 5, the Israeli Haaretz newspaper published an astounding article titled, “92 Flights from Israeli Base Reveal Arms Exports to Azerbaijan.”

The article reported that on March 2, Azerbaijan’s Silk Way Airlines’ cargo plane landed in Israel’s Ovda military airport. Two hours later, it returned to Baku via Turkey and the Georgian Republic. In the last seven years, this is the 92nd cargo flight from Baku to Ovda, the only airfield in Israel that is allowed to export explosives. These military shipments increased substantially during Azerbaijan’s attacks on Armenia/Artsakh in 2016, 2020, 2021 and 2022. President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan has described Israel’s covert relations with Azerbaijan as being like an iceberg – nine-tenths of it is below the surface.

Israel supplies almost 70-percent of Azerbaijan’s weapons and in return receives about half of its imported oil. Haaretz quoted foreign media sources disclosing: “Azerbaijan has allowed the Mossad [Israel’s intelligence agency] to set up a forward branch [in Azerbaijan] to monitor what is happening in Iran, Azerbaijan’s neighbor to the south, and has even prepared an airfield intended to aid Israel in case it decides to attack Iranian nuclear sites. Reports from two years ago stated that the Mossad agents who stole the Iranian nuclear archive smuggled it to Israel via Azerbaijan. According to official reports from Azerbaijan, over the years Israel has sold it the most advanced weapons systems, including ballistic missiles, air defense and electronic warfare systems, kamikaze drones and more.”

Haaretz revealed that Azerbaijan’s Silk Way Airlines “operates three weekly flights between Baku and [Israel’s] Ben-Gurion International Airport with Boeing 747 cargo freighters.” In addition, some Eastern European countries circumvent the ban on the sale of weapons to Azerbaijan by shipping them via Israel.

The restriction of the sale of weapons by Europe and the United States to Armenia and Azerbaijan created an opportunity for Israel to earn billions of dollars in weapons’ sales to Azerbaijan.

Haaretz reported that “Israel has exported a very wide range of weapons to the country [Azerbaijan] – starting with Tavor assault rifles all the way to the most sophisticated systems such as radar, air defense, antitank missiles, ballistic missiles, ships and a wide range of drones, both for intelligence and attack purposes. Israeli companies have also supplied advanced spy tech, such as communications monitoring systems from Verint and the Pegasus spyware from the NSO Group – tools that were used against journalists, the LGBT community and human rights activists in Azerbaijan, too.”

The Stockholm International Peace Institute wrote: “Israel’s defense exports to Azerbaijan began in 2005 with the sale of the Lynx multiple launch rocket systems by Israel Military Industries (IMI Systems), which has a range of 150 kilometers (92 miles). IMI, which was acquired by Elbit Systems in 2018, also supplied LAR-160 light artillery rockets with a range of 45 kilometers, which, according to a report from Human Rights Watch, were used by Azerbaijan to fire banned cluster munitions at residential areas in Nagorno-Karabakh,” even though Israel and 123 other countries have banned the use of cluster bombs.

Haaretz reported: “In 2007, Azerbaijan signed a contract to buy four intelligence-gathering drones from Aeronautics Defense Systems. It was the first deal of many. In 2008 it purchased 10 Hermes 450 drones from Elbit Systems and 100 Spike antitank missiles produced by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and in 2010 it bought another 10 intelligence-gathering drones. Soltam Systems, owned by Elbit, sold it ATMOS self-propelled guns and 120-millimeter Cardom mortars, and in 2017 Azerbaijan’s arsenal was supplemented with the more advanced Hanit mortars. According to the telegram leaked in Wikileaks, a sale of advanced communications equipment from Tadiran was also signed in 2008.”

According to Haaretz, “Israel and Azerbaijan took their relationship up a level in 2011 with a huge $1.6 billion deal that included a battery of Barak missiles for intercepting aircraft and missiles, as well as Searcher and Heron drones from Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI). It was reported that near the end of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, a Barak battery shot down an Iskander ballistic missile launched by Armenia. Aeronautics Defense Systems also began cooperating with the local arms industry in Azerbaijan, where some of the 100 Orbiter kamikaze (loitering munitions) drones were produced – drones that Azerbaijan’s defense minister called ‘a nightmare for the Armenian army.’”

In 2021, “an indictment was filed against [Israel’s] Aeronautics Defense Systems for violating the law regulating defense exports in its dealing with one of its most prominent clients. A court-imposed gag order prevents the publication of further details. A project to modernize the Azerbaijani army’s tanks began in the early 2010s. Elbit Systems upgraded and equipped the old Soviet T-72 models with new protective gear to enhance the tanks’ and their crews’ survivability, as well as fast and precise target acquisition and fire control systems. The upgraded tanks, known as Aslan (Lion), starred in the 2013 military parade. Azerbaijan’s navy was reinforced in 2013 with six patrol ships based on the Israel Navy’s Sa’ar 4.5-class missile boats, produced by Israel Shipyards and carrying the naval version of the Spike missiles, along with six Shaldag MK V patrol boats with Rafael’s Typhoon gun mounts and Spike missile systems. Azerbaijan’s navy also bought 100 Lahat antitank guided missiles.”

In 2014, “Azerbaijan ordered the first 100 Harop kamikaze drones from IAI, which were a critical tool in later rounds of fighting. Azerbaijan also purchased two advanced radar systems for aerial warning and defense from IAI subsidiary Elta that same year…. Two years later, Azerbaijan bought another 250 SkyStriker kamikaze drones from Elbit Systems. Many videos from the areas of fighting showed Israeli drones attacking Armenian forces…. In 2016, during Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Baku, Aliyev revealed that contracts had already been signed between the two countries for the purchase of some $5 billion in ‘defensive equipment.’ In 2017, Azerbaijan purchased advanced Hermes 900 drones from Elbit Systems and LORA ballistic missiles from IAI, with a range of 430 kilometers. In 2018, Aliyev inaugurated the base where the LORA missiles are deployed, at a distance of about 430 kilometers from Yerevan, Armenia’s capital. During the war in 2020, at least one LORA missile was launched, and according to reports it hit a bridge that Armenia used to supply arms and equipment to its forces in Nagorno-Karabakh. More advanced Spike missiles were sent in 2019 and 2020.”

It is appalling that the descendants of the Holocaust are supplying such massive lethal weapons to Azerbaijan to kill the descendants of the Armenian Genocide.


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Putin’s Revenge: With New Offensive, Azerbaijan Tightens Grip On Nagorno-Karabakh


For months, the negotiations over the fate of Nagorno-Karabakh seemed to be going in Azerbaijan’s favor. Armenia’s government had publicly and explicitly said it recognized the breakaway territory — which is the center of the two countries’ decades-long conflict — as part of Azerbaijan. All that was to be worked out, in essence, were the details. So why did war break out again?

The Backdrop To War

At issue is Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous enclave of Azerbaijan that historically has been home to both Armenians and Azeris. On the eve of the collapse of the Soviet Union, the population of what was then the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast was roughly 75 percent ethnic Armenian. A nationalist movement in the 1980s sought to separate the territory from Azerbaijan and join it with Armenia. The ensuing war in the early 1990s killed some 30,000 people and resulted in Armenian-backed separatists seizing the territory from Azerbaijan.

Diplomatic efforts to settle the conflict brought little progress, and the two sides fought another war in 2020 that lasted six weeks before a Russian-brokered cease-fire effectively recognized the loss of Armenian control over parts of the region and seven adjacent districts.

In 2022, Baku and Yerevan embarked on negotiations aimed at finally resolving the conflict. Azerbaijan’s stated goal has been to regain full control over the rest of Karabakh, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian has indicated that he was willing to comply.

But the Karabakh Armenian leadership has been more recalcitrant, fearing that Azerbaijani promises to peacefully “reintegrate” ethnic Armenians amounted to a smokescreen for a plan to eventually squeeze them out of the territory for good. International mediators had been trying to find a compromise to the standoff but with little to show for it.

So Why Did Azerbaijan Attack Now?

On September 19, Azerbaijan launched a wide-scale attack against Nagorno-Karabakh and the remnants of its armed forces, forcing residents of the region’s capital, Stepanakert (Xankendi in Azeri), to hunker down in bomb shelters and those in outlying settlements to evacuate to the center. After a day of attacks, the offensive achieved Baku’s stated aim: The de facto ethnic Armenian Karabakh authorities agreed to disband and disarm their armed forces.

The worst fears of violence now appear to be averted, with the Azerbaijani and ethnic Armenian sides agreeing on an immediate cease-fire. But the offensive laid bare how the dynamics of the conflict are all on Azerbaijan’s side, to the point where Baku felt that it was in its interest to accelerate the process with force, despite the possibility of facing international condemnation and risking the lives of the people in Nagorno-Karabakh it says are its citizens.

Azerbaijan has been dissatisfied with the pace of negotiations, complaining that the Karabakh Armenian leadership was digging in and becoming intransigent. Baku also may have seen a moment of opportunity when Armenia’s traditional security guarantor, Russia, had turned against the Armenian government and its leader, Pashinian. And finally, Azerbaijan likely calculated that whatever international costs it might face for the assault, they would not be too painful.

Was The Azerbaijani Offensive Unexpected?

The ostensible trigger for the operation was a mine explosion that killed six Azerbaijanis early in the morning on September 19, near the city of Xocavend, which is now under the control of Russian peacekeepers and a part of wider territory that Azerbaijani forces retook in the war in 2020. The Azerbaijani side blamed the mine attack on Armenian saboteurs from Karabakh.

But the preparations for the assault had been going on for weeks. Azerbaijani troops had massed on the line of contact separating Azerbaijani-controlled territory from the rump Karabakh entity that remained following the 2020 war. There were also reports of military cargo flights between Azerbaijan and Israel, suggesting that Azerbaijan may have been rearming in preparation for more fighting.

Baku’s rhetoric had also taken a notably sharper turn in recent weeks, as well. Azerbaijan “will not tolerate the presence of any gray zone in its territory,” Hikmet Haciyev, a senior adviser to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, said in late August. It was a reference to the part of Karabakh Azerbaijan did not yet control.


Protests In Yerevan Follow Azerbaijani Attacks As Karabakh Residents Seek Shelter

 

Photo Gallery:

Armenians took to the streets to demand Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian resign after Azerbaijan launched what it called an “anti-terrorist operation” targeting ethnic Armenian military positions in Nagorno-Karabakh that left at least 32 people dead and more than 200 wounded.

Well before this summer, analysts say that Azerbaijan had been using military escalations to push along the diplomatic process.

Talks between the central government in Baku and the Karabakh Armenians had stalled, with Azerbaijanis complaining about their interlocutors’ intransigence. “The Karabakh Armenians refused to talk about anything except independence,” said Farid Shafiyev, the head of the Azerbaijani government-run think tank Center of Analysis of International Relations. He noted that the de facto ethnic Armenian government had organized an election of a new president in early September 2022, a step that in Azerbaijani eyes confirmed the unwillingness to accept their rule.

But the Karabakh Armenian authorities’ position had been “evolving,” with a greater willingness to accede to Azerbaijan’s demands, said Olesya Vartanyan, the senior South Caucasus analyst at the Crisis Group think tank. “They were ready to meet in Azerbaijan and discuss the integration process — what Baku had been demanding.”

As the standoff dragged on, the risk of another attack from Azerbaijan rose. “The absence — or more accurately the stagnation — of the political process exacerbates these concerns,” Zaur Shiriyev, a Baku-based analyst for Crisis Group, said in an online discussion on September 15, just days before the offensive began. “If a military escalation occurs in the Armenian-populated areas of Karabakh in the coming days or weeks, it wouldn’t be a surprise.”

The Russia Factor

Accelerating the process was a rapid collapse in relations between Armenia and its traditional big-power patron, Russia. As part of the 2020 cease-fire agreement, a contingent of 2,000 Russian peacekeepers were deployed to the part of Karabakh that ethnic Armenians still controlled. But they have proven unable or unwilling to push back against steady Azerbaijani pressure on the territory. And Russia itself — despite having treaty obligations to defend Armenia in case of external attack, as both are members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a mutual defense pact — has not intervened in spite of repeated Azerbaijani incursions across the border into Armenia.

This led to an increasing estrangement between Yerevan and Moscow that came to a head this month, when the Armenian government took a series of seemingly calculated steps to signal its displeasure with Russia. Among them: It dispatched Pashinian’s wife, Anna Hakobian, to Kyiv to deliver a package of aid; it announced it intended to sign the treaty to join the International Criminal Court, which would in effect obligate it to arrest Russian President Vladimir Putin; and it withdrew its representative from the CSTO. “They crossed about three Russian red lines simultaneously,” said Thomas de Waal, an analyst at the think tank Carnegie Europe.

Baku appears to have been emboldened by the Russian-Armenian rift, says Shujaat Ahmadzada, a nonresident research fellow at the Baku-based Topchubashov Center, which focuses on international relations and security. “It points to Russia here more than other factors,” he said. “The only actor that could have caused problems to a degree [for Azerbaijan] was Russia, and now, given the Armenia-Russia decoupling, I think they believe the time is right.”

How Has The World Reacted?

As their position vis-a-vis Azerbaijan has weakened, and the alliance with Russia frayed, Armenia has been seeking international support wherever it can get it. It hosts border monitors from the European Union, is buying weapons from India, and regularly tries to bring up the conflict at the United Nations Security Council.

But it has thus far failed to get any international actor to take substantive action to slow Azerbaijan down, which also likely played into Baku’s thinking, Ahmadzada says. “If I were in [Armenia’s] shoes, I would not be expecting significant actions against Azerbaijan coming from the West,” he said.

Indeed, while the reaction from abroad to Azerbaijan’s September 19 attacks was swift and critical, it was limited to expressions of concern. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called Aliyev to “urge Azerbaijan to cease military actions in Nagorno-Karabakh immediately.” The European Union said it “condemns the military escalation” and that the “violence needs to stop.”

“The international community is just making statements. It’s just statements,” said Edmon Marukian, an Armenian ambassador-at-large. “You know, statements are not helping when you’re attacked and somebody is trying to kill you.”

What Now?

The offensive managed to secure a concession that Azerbaijan has been demanding — and the ethnic Armenian Karabakh leadership has been fiercely resisting — for months: the disbanding and disarmament of the armed forces of the Karabakh authorities. Meetings between representatives of the Karabakh Armenians and of the central government in Baku are scheduled for September 21 in the Azerbaijani city of Yevlax.

A statement before that meeting from the de facto Karabakh presidency said that the talks would discuss the region’s possible “reintegration” into Azerbaijan and the Karabakh Armenians’ rights and security “within the framework of the Azerbaijani Constitution.” Those are conditions that Karabakh Armenians had previously considered unacceptable, but with Azerbaijan gaining the upper hand once again, their leaders had no choice but to accept them.

A week before the offensive, Armenian historian and diplomat Gerard Libaridian gave a lecture in the United States for his new book, A Precarious Armenia. He discussed the ongoing negotiations and argued that, as time goes on, Armenians’ bargaining position will become worse and worse.

“The more we wait, the less leverage we have…. Today, we cannot get what we could get last year. Last year, we couldn’t get what we could have gotten four or five years ago,” he said. “The more we have waited, the harder Aliyev has become.”


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U.S. Sanctions | Who is Otar Partskhaladze?


On September 14, the Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC)  imposed sanctions on Otar Partskhaladze, considered by the media and watchdogs as one of the close associates of the oligarch, and ruling party patron, Bidzina Ivanishvili. The State Department stated that Partskhaladze was designated for his efforts to influence Georgian society and politics in cahoots with the FSB officer.

What did the U.S. State Department Say?

The U.S. State Department release reads: “FSB Officer [Aleksander] Onishchenko likely assisted his associate Partskhaladze in obtaining a Russian passport and possibly Russian citizenship. Partskhaladze has fully taken on Russian identity and routinely travels to Russia. Onishchenko and the FSB have leveraged Partskhaladze to influence Georgian society and politics for the benefit of Russia. Partskhaladze has reportedly personally profited from his FSB connection.”

Partskhaladze: “Dirty Campaign”

On the following day, in a written statement submitted to Rustavi 2 TV, Otar Partskhaladze claimed that the decision on his sanctioning was based on assumptions rather than facts. Partskhaladze said the United National Movement, the Georgian Dream’s nemesis, was behind the decade-old “dirty campaign” to discredit him, which brought about the U.S. sanction. In his written statement, Partskhaladze also noted that he left the civil service ten years ago and had no connections with state institutions since then.

The ruling Georgian Dream initially used the same line to downplay the links with Partskhaladze, but promptly changed tack. GD MPs and officials rallied behind Partskhaladze and demanded proof from the U.S. State Department to confirm any wrongdoings.   

Sanctions Implications

According to the US  State Department, “all property and interests in property of the designated persons that are in the United States or possession or control of U.S. persons are blocked and must be reported to the Department of Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).  Additionally, all individuals or entities that have ownership, either directly or indirectly, are blocked 50 percent or more by one or more blocked persons.  All transactions by U.S. persons or within (or transiting) the United States that involve any property or interests in property of designated or otherwise blocked persons are prohibited unless authorized by a general or specific license issued by OFAC or exempt.  These prohibitions include making any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services by, to, or for the benefit of any blocked person and receiving any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services from any such person.”

The National Bank of Georgia announced that it will apply the sanctions and said Partskhaladzes assets in Georgia are frozen and transactions limited. GD Chair Irakli Kobakhidze said such decisions were “against the Constitution” as it encroached on the presumption of Partskhaladze’s innocence.

Who is Otar Partskhaladze?

The “family”

Otar Partskhaladze is a member of Bidzina Ivanishvili’s inner circle. As the oligarch himself confirmed, Bera Ivanishvili (Bidzina Ivanishvili’s rapper son) is a godfather to Partskhaladze’s grandchild. It is also known that Partskhaladze is close friends with Ucha Mamacasvhili, Ivanishvili’s nephew, who is rumored to have significant influence on business. Even so, Ivanishvili publicly repeated several times that “Partskhaladze is not my friend,” but that of his family.

Before aligning himself with Ivanishvili, Partskhaladze served in the Ministry of Interior, and then in progressively responsible positions at the Finance Ministry’s investigative service, informally known as the financial police – agency responsible for probing into financial wrongdoings. He was the head of the agency until 2013. The current General Prosecutor, Irakli Shotadze, is known as Partskhaladze’s close friend and ally. He served as Partskhaladze’s deputy at the financial police, as well as during his brief tenure as General Prosecutor.

Short-lived prosecutor

Partskhaladze’s sudden rise to public prominence was linked to his appointment as the General Prosecutor in November 2013. He was officially nominated by then-Justice Minister Tea Tsulukiani and confirmed by then-Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili.

Upon his appointment, PM Garibashvili described Partskhaladze as an “effective manager” who would staff the prosecutor’s office with young, motivated professionals.

Shortly after his appointment, the media raised questions about the validity of his lawyer’s diploma, which, according to the official record, Partskhaladze got at the tender age of 19. The formal explanation said young Partskahaldze “skipped the class” at school.

The UNM and watchdogs also reported that Partshkaladze had a criminal record in Germany, involving conviction in burglary and theft. 

In a written statement, Partskhaladze rejected these allegations, saying that he was found guilty by the court in Germany for having a “verbal altercation” with a policeman and not for burglary and theft.  But the scandal raged on, and after spending less than six weeks in office, Otar Partskhaladze was forced to resign.

During his short-term tenure as General Prosecutor, Partskhaladze was implicated in removing from prison and pressuring Vano Merabishvili, Georgia’s former UNM-era Interior Minister. While the official investigation didn’t confirm the incident, in November 2017, the European Court for Human Rights (ECHR) called the reports of Merabishvili’s late-night questioning during his pre-trial detention in 2013 “sufficiently convincing and therefore proven.”  

After the resignation, then Minister of Justice Tea Tsulukiani said she did not know Partskhaladze before she recommended him to become the General Prosecutor, and that someone with a criminal record “had no moral right” to serve in that position.

Scandal after scandal

Since leaving the post of Prosecutor General, Patrskhaladze went into business, but he continued to be involved in high-profile scandals, followed by criminal charges and court hearings.

According to the local anti-corruption watchdog Transparency International-Georgia‘s report, immediately after leaving office in 2013, Partskhaladze’s family owned two properties with a total area of 226 sq.m., at the end of 2018, his family owned 24 properties totaling 7,900 sq.m. He is currently residing in an immense mansion on Tbilisi’s outskirts.

The same organization also cites the journalistic investigation suggesting that the state-owned joint-stock company “Georgian Railways” made an exclusive deal with “Lukoil Georgia” (which was headed by Partskhaladze), effectively giving him the monopoly for transporting oil products to Armenia through Georgia.

Accusation: Beating the Auditor General

In 2017, Partskhaladze was charged with assaulting Auditor General Lasha Tordia in Tbilisi city center for probing into the former chief prosecutor’s business activities related to the transfer of plots of land in 2016. In 2021, the Tbilisi City Court acquitted Partskhaladze in a physical assault case. Ivanishvili spoke to the media about the incident and said, “Todria was behaving no less aggressively than Partskhaladze.”

Todria has emigrated to the United States and was granted political asylum in 2022, based on the review of facts related to the Partskhaladze case.

Accusation: Racketeering, illegal sequestration

The following year, Partskhaladze’s name surfaced in the so-called Omega tapes scandal and was accused of extortion and racketeering on Bidzina Ivanishvili’s behalf as well as trying to mount a sham funding scheme for the ruling party.

On September 30, 2018, Zaza Okuashvili, founder of the Omega Group, a Georgian business conglomerate, said in an interview that Ivanishvili abused his company’s financial “weaknesses” and extorted money while also trying to take over an affiliated TV company. Okruashvili claimed Partskhaladze was acting on Ivanishvili’s behalf, trying to strong-arm Omega Group.

In doing so, Partskhaladze was accused of incarcerating Levan Kipiani, a go-between with Omega Group, locking him in a basement overnight and threatening him with rape. Visibly shaken, Kipiani soon denied these accusations, and said he collaborated with Okruashvili to stage the tapes and falsely accuse Partskhaladze and Ivanishvili. Kipiani did confirm that Partskhaladze beat him, reportedly being angry when Kipiani swore at him. This was confirmed by Ivanishvili himself in 2018, who said, “you know what the reaction of the Georgian man is when he is being sworn at” and claimed Partskhaladze “regretted” his reaction.

Business

In 2016, Transparency International – Georgia, a watchdog, published its report questioning some shadowy dealings of the Partnership Fund, a state co-investment body. Among these dealings was the plan to build a composite aircraft parts factory in partnership with Israel’s Elbit Systems. Partskhaladze was a major shareholder in Royal Development Ltd., acting as co-investor of the project. As TI-Georgia questioned potential insider trading, Partskhaladze got rid of his shares. The chair of the Partnership Fund, David Saganelidze, said Royal Development was simply “renting the office space” to the project and that Partskhaladze had “no relation” with receiving funding from the Partnership Fund.

In February 2023, TV Pirveli’s journalistic investigation said Partskhaladze obtained Russian citizenship, established the Moscow Brokerage Investment Company, and was offering its clients – fleeing from the aftermath of sanctions – benefits in Georgia, including obtaining permanent residency, work visas, and citizenship through investment.

Russian backing

The traceable links of Partskhaladze with Russia date back to his official involvement with Lukoil, one of Russia’s major oil companies. Nothing much is known about the Moscow Brokerage Investment Company or any other businesses that Partskhaladze may have had in Russia or the “personal benefit” he may have received – as the State Department’s statement says – from his dealings with the Russian security service – the FSB.

Following the announcement of the U.S. sanctions, some Russian officials have spoken in Partskhaladze’s defense.

The chair of the Russian State Duma’s Committee on Commonwealth of Independent States Affairs, Eurasian Integration, and Relations with Compatriots, Leonid Kalashnikov, told Formula TV that Partskhaladze was involved in negotiations aimed at resuming direct flights with Russia and canceling the visa regime for the Georgian citizens. According to Kalashnikov, Partskhaladze is “actively working on humanitarian, economic, and other aspects of Russia-Georgia relations, acting in the interests of Georgia and for the benefit of the Georgian people.”

Senator of Russia’s Federation Council, Gregory Karasin, also supported Partskhaladze, describing the sanctions imposed on him as “discriminatory and totally unfair.”


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Audio posts: We must maintain this approach until Baku enters constructive field


We must maintain this approach until Baku enters constructive field

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Tension persists on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and on the Artsakh contact line, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan told news outlet “Azatutyun.”

“Basically, we have always said that in case of such unpredictable behavior from Azerbaijan, tension should always be expected, both in Nagorno-Karabakh and on the borders of the Republic of Armenia,” Mirzoyan emphasized, continuing. “We have seen several invasions into the territory of the Republic of Armenia […] and the occupation of the territories of Armenia, and also constant threats, hate speech, also towards Nagorno Karabakh, brought the population of Nagorno Karabakh to the brink of a humanitarian disaster, and yes, we always expect tension.

Now you are wondering what we are doing. We are actively working with international partners, I’m sure you are keeping track of everything, you see statements, calls and, of course, legal decisions of the International Court. We must continue to work like this until Azerbaijan enters the constructive field, because we want peace, and we want long-term peace. We want recognition of territorial integrity, but at the same time a mutual recognition, since you know that Azerbaijan must recognize our borders, there is such an agreement, but so far the President of Azerbaijan refuses to make public statements on this matter […],” Mirzoyan said.

When asked whether the main, fundamental differences remain after Yerevan and Baku again exchanged options for a peace treaty, he replied: “Differences remain. Of course, it would be wrong to say that there is no progress from edition to edition, the text is being polished, I once said that all points are important, but nevertheless, the text can be conditionally divided into vitally important and not so vitally important points. But, of course, there are still fundamental disagreements on the most vital, most significant issues. We must continue to negotiate, continue to work.”

Regarding the introduction of an international mechanism into the Baku-Stepanakert dialogue, the head of the RA Foreign Ministry said, “We are confident that all issues related to Nagorno-Karabakh should be discussed between representatives of Nagorno-Karabakh and official Baku, and everyone else in the world can only play the role of facilitators. Why an international mechanism? We think that even if this dialogue begins between official Baku and Stepanakert, still, left alone in the same room, Baku will try to conduct this conversation in the form of an ultimatum, dictate demands and conditions. I don’t think there will be a big, real and sincere dialogue if there is no international presence, and even I may doubt the continuity of these meetings and dialogue. And this is where some kind of international mechanism is needed.”

When asked whether this international mechanism is a “red line” for Yerevan, the FM replied, “Principles are a red line. We want real solutions to be given to real problems, and we are confident that a dialogue is the best way to do this. Why under international auspices? To make dialogue more effective, that’s all. The red lines are the final results.”

Regarding the map, according to Ararat Mirzoyan, “a dialogue is taking place that did not exist before, in an atmosphere of greater mutual understanding.” “We see positive signals, at the same time I want to say again that not only are the exchange of ideas and specific agreements not being implemented, but the leadership of Azerbaijan is either changing its mind or is currently playing some kind of a diplomatic game,” he concluded.

Pashinyan doubts Baku has real political will for direct dialogue with Stepanakert

Pashinyan doubts Baku has real political will for direct dialogue with Stepanakert 11:33, 17 September 2023

YEREVAN, SEPTEMBER 17, ARMENPRESS. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on Sunday said he was unsure that Azerbaijan actually has the political will to start direct dialogue with Stepanakert despite Baku’s public statements.

Asked on the possible launch of an international mechanism for dialogue between Stepanakert and Baku, Pashinyan said that international colleagues are intensively working in this direction.

“First of all, this is the reason that I continue to urge our colleagues in Stepanakert, and also have hope, that they will be involved in that dialogue. Of course, my call is addressed also to Baku, because that dialogue won’t take place if one of the parties doesn’t want it. And unfortunately, it’s not like we can see that desire being fully expressed by Baku,” Pashinyan told reporters.

He noted that Baku, nevertheless, has expressed that desire on the official level. However, several meetings that had been planned eventually failed to take place. “I am not sure that Baku, aside from public statements, actually has real political will to carry out that dialogue,” PM Pashinyan said.

Karabakh Leaders Say Agreement Made On Simultaneous Aid Shipments Through Agdam, Lachin

 

Ukrainian soldiers prepare to fire from the 2C22 Bohdan self-propelled howitzer toward Russian positions in eastern Ukraine.

Ukrainian soldiers prepare to fire from the 2C22 Bohdan self-propelled howitzer toward Russian positions in eastern Ukraine.

Kyiv said it was continuing offensive operations against Russian forces in the east and south as alarms sounded throughout Ukraine on September 16, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy thanked Western and other allies for helping to make “significant progress” with “defense agreements and other support packages” for his embattled nation.

Meanwhile, Russia rejected Ukrainian claims of retaking a strategic village in the Donetsk region as its full-scale invasion of Ukraine approached its 20th month, while the Kremlin also said defense forces had shot down two drones outside Moscow overnight.

Separately, Washington confirmed plans for potentially crucial support-building meetings next week between Ukraine’s visiting president and U.S. political leaders.

 

RFE/RL’s Live Briefing gives you all of the latest developments on Russia’s full-scale invasion, Kyiv’s counteroffensive, Western military aid, global reaction, and the plight of civiliansFor all of RFE/RL’s coverage of the war in Ukraine, click here.

Around midday, air alerts sounded in a number of regions of Ukraine as the country’s military warned of the threat of ballistic attacks on population centers.

The alarms blared in the capital, Kyiv, as well as in the Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Poltava, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolayiv, and Zaporizhzhya, and Odesa regions.

A series of blasts was reported in the Kharkiv region, although information on possible casualties or damages was initially unavailable.

The Ukrainian General Staff said on September 16 that its forces were conducting defensive operations in eastern and southern Ukraine and offensive operations around Melitopol and Bakhmut.

It claimed “success” in the Klishchiyevka area of the Donetsk region.

Ukrainian Digital Transformation Minister Mykhaylo Fedorov, who has participated in building up his country’s advanced fighting abilities, warned Moscow’s military that following recent attacks on Russian naval targets in the Black Sea, “There will be more drones, more attacks, and fewer Russian ships. That’s for sure.”

Governor Roman Starovoit of Russia’s Kursk region said on Telegram on September 16 that Ukrainian forces shelled a village in Russia’s Kursk region, killing a 30-year-old civilian.

He also said that 17 Ukrainian projectiles had struck a village in the Korenevsky District of the Kursk region, causing damage but no injuries.

The Ukrainian side routinely avoids commenting on the increasing number of attacks inside Russian territory by unmanned aerial vehicles.

Russian media outlet RBC said in late August that it had tallied more than 500 claims by Russian authorities of drone attacks inside Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began 18 months ago. In 110 cases, casualties or damage were reported.

Russia’s Defense Ministry also rejected the Ukrainian military’s claim from earlier in the week that Kyiv’s forces had recaptured the village of Andriyivka, near Bakhmut in the Donetsk region, where a Russian-backed separatist group called the Donetsk People’s Republic operates.

“The enemy did not abandon plans to capture the city of Artyomovsk of the Donetsk People’s Republic and continued to conduct assault operations…unsuccessfully trying to oust Russian troops from the population centers of Klishchiyivka and Andriyivka,” the Russian ministry said in its daily briefing, according to Reuters.

RFE/RL can’t independently confirm battlefield claims by either side in areas of the heaviest fighting in Ukraine, and censorship and strictures on the media seriously hinder reporting in Russia.

Reports have suggested that pressure from the United States and other allies has mounted on Ukraine to demonstrate success in the ongoing major counteroffensive it launched in June. Zelenskiy and other Ukrainian officials have pushed back on criticisms about the pace of the Ukrainian military’s push to retake Russian-occupied areas of southern and eastern Ukraine.

Early this month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced that he had replaced Ukraine’s defense minister because “new approaches” were needed.

In his nightly video address, Zelenskiy on September 16 thanked his nation’s allies for their continued support In the fight against the Russian invasion.

“This week, we’ve made significant progress in implementing existing defense agreements and other support packages,” Zelenskiy said.

“Denmark, thank you for the new defense package, which is already the 12th package. Equipment, ammunition, and missiles for our air defense,” he said.

“Germany, thank you for the new batch of military aid. Belgium, your participation in our pilot training is approved. Thank you! Norway, your decision to provide additional funding for Ukraine’s recovery. It’s crucial. Thank you!”

He also singled out the United States and South Korea for their support.

U.S. national-security adviser Jake Sullivan confirmed on September 15 that President Joe Biden will host Zelenskiy in Washington on September 21 for what will be their third meeting at the White House.

WATCH: U.S. Ambassador to the OSCE Michael Carpenter tells RFE/RL how Zelenskiy could use a meeting with Biden next week to press the case for further military support.

Both Biden and Zelenskiy are slated to address the 78th session of the UN General Assembly next week, and Zelenskiy is expected to use his in-person appearance with U.S. and world leaders to rally support and plead for advanced weapons and ammunition to aid his country’s ongoing counteroffensive to retake Ukrainian territory occupied by Russian forces.

Sullivan also said Zelenskiy will visit the U.S. Capitol, where he can meet “congressional leaders from both parties to make the case that the United States has been a great friend and partner to Ukraine throughout this entire brutal war.”

The U.S. Congress is currently debating Biden’s request to provide as much as $24 billion in military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine.

U.S. Army General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters on September 16 that any help from Pyongyang is not likely to make a major difference in Moscow’s war effort.

“Would it have a huge difference? I’m skeptical of that,” Milley said, adding that while any weapons assistance would be of concern, “I doubt that it would be decisive.”

With reporting by Reuters
Riyadh, Day 14: Lasha “must improve” after seventh straight world title

Lasha Talakhadze had to work hard to win his seventh straight world title, and he will have to work harder yet to hold off his challengers, according to his coach.

Five men in the super-heavyweight A Group, the final session of the 2023 IWF World Championships in Riyadh, made a total of 450kg or more to put Talakhadze under more pressure than usual.

Lasha Talakhadze (GEO)

The Georgian made 220-253-473 ahead of the Armenian Varazdat Lalayan on 212-248-460 and Gor Minasyan, lifting for Bahrain, on 213-246-459.

The others on 450kg or more were Ali Davoudi from Iran and Simon Martirosyan from Armenia. Davoudi was desperately close to taking clean and jerk gold. He just failed with his final attempt at 255kg and finished 203-249-452.

Martirosyan, who weighed 47kg less than Talakhadze on 130kg, made 200-250-450. All five of the 450-plus group failed with their final attempt.

“I like it very much to have others who are close to me, I’m happy with that,” said Talakhadze, world record holder and double Olympic champion.

When he failed with his last lift at 260kg – up 3kg, at his own request, on the number suggested by his coach Giorgi Asanidze – it made no difference to the result because Talakhadze was 13kg clear.

Varazdat Lalayan (ARM)

“It’s not such a big weight for me – I must do better and I will make it next time,” he said.

Asanidze believes he will have to if he is to extend his winning run which started at the 2015 World Championships.

“The others are closing in on Lasha. The standard he showed today will not be enough any more,” said Asanidze.

“He was not at his very best here, but the only thing that mattered today was for him to be champion again. He will have to regain top form next time.”

Talakhadze had slightly strained his left wrist in attempting that last lift and will have time to recover because he will weigh in without lifting at the next qualifier in Qatar in December, Asanidze said. He will return to competition in February at the European Championships.

Eduard Ziaziulin from Belarus, competing as an Individual Neutral Athlete, made a respectable 201-230-431 despite failing with his last two attempts and goes straight into the top 10 in the rankings.

There was glory and pain for 19-year-old Ali Rubaiawi, who also made the top 10 from the B Group.

Gor Minasyan (BRN)

After Qasim Hasan had won Iraq’s first World Championships gold medal in any Olympic sport in the 96kg snatch last Wednesday, Rubaiawi became the first Iraqi weightlifter to claim a junior world record.

He did it with the last lift of the snatch session on 198kg, and started well in clean and jerk on 221kg. But a few minutes later Rubaiawi was on a stretcher, heading for hospital after suffering a painful quadriceps injury on his second attempt.

Despite the injury, Rubaiawi improved his best qualifying total by 30kg on 198-221-419 and moved into the top 10 in the Paris rankings.

The men’s +109kg podium

Another B Group lifter to make a big gain was Lee Jaesang from Korea. The 28-year-old missed his second clean and jerk but the last one at 241kg to finish 175-241-416 and move within 2kg of top-10 team-mate Jo Seongbin in the long list.

The rankings are expected to be updated on the IWF website in the next few days.

By Brian Oliver, Inside the Games

Photos by Giorgio Scala/Deepbluemedia

Karabakh Separatists, Azerbaijan Agree On Humanitarian Supplies

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By AFP – Agence France Presse

September 17, 2023

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Armenian separatists in Azerbaijan’s breakaway enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh on Sunday agreed on delivery of humanitarian supplies through the territory controlled by Baku, marking the first step towards de-escalation in the volatile region.

Armenia has accused Azerbaijan of fuelling a humanitarian crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh after Baku blocked last year the sole road linking the mountainous region with Armenia, the Lachin corridor policed by Russian peacekeepers.

Azerbaijan has rejected the accusation, arguing Nagorno-Karabakh could receive all the supplies it needed via Azerbaijan.

Baku has said that the separatist authorities had simply refused its proposal to simultaneously reopen both the Lachin corridor and the Aghdam road which connects Nagorno-Karabakh with the rest of Azerbaijan.

On Sunday, the separatist government said it has agreed to allow “simultaneous deliveries of humanitarian cargo” via both routes.

It said that unspecified “mediators are working to organise a meeting with the official representatives of Artsakh (Armenian name of Nagorno-Karabakh) and Azerbaijan in order to alleviate the tense humanitarian and security situation in the republic.”

The foreign ministry in Baku said it was notified by the International Committee of the Red Cross that the separatist authorities “have agreed on parallel supplies of humanitarian cargo as of September 18 (Monday).”

The European Union and United States have called for the reopening of Lachin and Aghdam routes for humanitarian aid as Nagorno-Karabakh experienced shortages of food and medicine.

The months-long crisis as well as Baku’s deployment of troops near Nagorno-Karabakh and along the border with Armenia have sparked fears of a fresh all-out conflict between the arch-foes who have fought two wars for control of the region.

Six weeks of fighting ended in autumn 2020 with a Russian-brokered truce that saw Armenia cede swathes of territory it had controlled since the 1990s.

The two sides have been unable to reach a lasting peace settlement despite mediation efforts by the European Union, United States and Russia.

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The Barron’s news department was not involved in the creation of the content above. This story was produced by AFP. For more information go to AFP.com.
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Armenian separatists in Azerbaijan’s breakaway enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh on Sunday agreed on delivery of humanitarian supplies through the territory controlled by Baku, marking the first step towards de-escalation in the volatile region.

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A bad mistake in Armenia

 

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Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Gwynner Dyer argues he is fooling himself if he thinks the U.S. or Russia will help Armenia in its current predicament.

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Georgia’s Lasha Talakhadze claims 7th World Weightlifting Champion title

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Georgia’s Weightlifting Olympic Champion, European Champion and record-breaking athlete Lasha Talakhadze became a seven-time winner of the World Championship on Sunday, after winning the event in Saudi Arabia’s capital city of Riyadh, Azernews reports, citing Agenda.

Talakhadze has claimed three gold medals in the +109 kg weight category after lifting 220 kg in snatch, 253 kg in clean and jerk, and 473 kg in total.

The Georgian athlete also became a seven-time European Champion in April in Yerevan.

Talakhadze was named the 2022 European Weightlifter of the Year, making him the first Georgian athlete to earn the honour.

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Mediators work on organizing meeting with official Artsakh, Azerbaijan reps

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Work is underway to organize a meeting between official representatives of Artsakh and Azerbaijan, says the message spread by the Artsakh Information Headquarters.

“We also inform you that the mediators are working to organize a meeting with the official representatives of Artsakh and Azerbaijan in order to alleviate the tense humanitarian and security situation in the Republic.”

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Georgia’s majority party in parliament pushes to impeach the president but is unlikely to succeed

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TALLINN, Estonia (AP) — The majority party that dominates the parliament in Georgia has launched a campaign to impeach the country’s president, even though the effort appears unlikely to succeed.

The Georgian Dream party, which is increasingly at odds with President Salome Zourabichvili despite endorsing her election in 2018, announced the effort last week. It said Zourabichvili violated the constitution by travelling to European Union countries without the government’s permission.

The party also took offense at recent comments by Zourabichvili, saying it believes they undermine Georgia’s aspirations to join the EU.

“She also said the most disturbing thing — that Georgia did not deserve (EU) candidate status last year. After that, of course, we do not need any more evidence for her credibility to be simply lost. We had no other motivation” for the impeachment initiative, Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili said Monday, according to Georgian media.

Impeachment needs support of 100 of the 150 members in the parliament; Georgian Dream and its allies have 84 seats.

Zourabichvili is increasingly at odds with Georgian Dream, including the party’s ties to Russia. When Georgia restored flights to Russia this year, she vowed not to travel on the state airline in protest.

The Georgian presidency, which has notably limited powers, is to switch in 2024 from being a directly elected position to one chosen by a college of electors that includes members of parliament.

Hypocritical policy which US tries to impose on Azerbaijan

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Editorial

It is clear that the policy pursued by the United States is based only on its own interests, and hypocrisy, betrayal, and treachery have risen to the level of state policy.

On one hand, the United States supports the territorial integrity of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, considers Abkhazia and South Ossetia as part of Georgia, Transnistria as part of Moldova, Donbas and Crimea as an integral part of Ukraine, and also supports these countries on all international platforms, on the other hand, the United States did not provide any support to Azerbaijan, whose territory had been under the invasion for almost 30 years. Moreover, it took steps that suited the interests of invader Armenia.

If a small part of the support provided to Ukraine today had been provided to Azerbaijan, our lands would not have stayed under the invasion so long.

As a co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, the United States also did not conduct any work; the co-chairs made tourist trips and made routine statements. This organization and one of its co-chairs, the United States, did everything possible to keep the conflict frozen for many years. Millions of dollars were allocated annually to the so-called regime in Garabagh under the guise of mine clearance. The separatists visited the United States and raised funds under the name “aid to Garabagh.” It was in the USA that the department of the criminal regime of Garabagh was created. Representatives of the regime visited America and held meetings at various levels. All this is an indicator of the US attitude towards resolving the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Although support for Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity was expressed on the surface, behind the scenes support was given to the separatist regime in Armenia and Garabagh.

The United States, as a hegemonic power, created the image of an enemy that would frighten the international system in order to dictate its will to the whole world, and declared Islam the main enemy of the “civilized world.” This is a country where Islamophobia has risen to the level of state policy, it has not only interfered in the internal affairs of various countries in the name of fighting terrorism but has also targeted Muslim countries. As a result of the “Arab Spring” scenario, governments in the Middle East were overthrown and civil conflicts were encouraged. Countries such as Iraq and Libya were attacked, where such a scenario was impossible.

After creating an image of Iraq as having “nuclear weapons”, they invaded the country, killing one million Iraqis, destroying cities and villages, taking control of the country’s national wealth, and continuing to plunder it so far.

The civil conflict that began in Libya after the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi still cannot subside. The killing of millions of people, the destruction of economic infrastructure, cities and villages in the Middle East, and the fact that this problem will continue for many years is the result of the “democracy” that America brought to the East.

Today, the United States which is considered the country responsible for the shameful scandals at Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo Bay for the torturing and murdering of Muslims, presents itself as a “patron of human rights.”

All points of tension in the world are created according to the desires and plans of the United States. All political games have one goal – to ensure American interests in any region or country and to control and exploit the resources of the region or country. The US is not interested in democracy, human rights, peace and stability. Most of South America, Africa, and Asia became a testing ground for American political games.

Azerbaijan has also been suffering from US geopolitical games for many years. In our country, attempts were made to carry out coups d’etat. Consistent work was carried out in the direction of financing and training the political opposition, involving the NGO sector and the media in political games, that is, in a word, creating an atmosphere of civil disobedience in the country. The main goal of this country is to form a government in Azerbaijan that is unquestioningly subordinate to the interests of the United States and to legitimize the invasion of Azerbaijani territories. However, these attempts and numerous plans did not come true.

The United States tried to “Syrianize” Azerbaijan and several times prepared a plan for “color revolutions” to prevent the country from strengthening, developing, and liberating occupied Garabagh. But thanks to the unity of the government and the people, none of these evil plans came to true.

Realizing that after the 44-day war, the unity of the government and the people in Azerbaijan has strengthened, today the United States is changing its tactics and is trying to use not the opposition, which is in trouble, but LGBT which is a great threat to national values, “feminists” who promote immorality, and people “NO TO WAR”, trying to devalue the Victory in the Patriotic War. The US also provides funds to these groups through USAID, and these groups are led by Samantha Power, who has pro-Armenian, anti-Turkish, and anti-Azerbaijani positions.

Azerbaijan managed to resist any pressure and liberated its lands from occupation on its own. Of course, the existence of Azerbaijan with such strength and courage does not correspond to the interests and goals of the United States, France, and other similar countries. Therefore, today official Washington is not making serious efforts to resolve the problem between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but is only creating an illusion.

According to the agreement reached at the last meeting in Washington, on September 1, roads in the region should have been opened and the Agdam-Khankendi road should have been operational. Although Blinken asked for the opening of both the Lachin and Aghdam roads during negotiations with the Azerbaijani leadership, the US stepped back from its position rather than put pressure on the Armenian leadership and separatists in Garabagh who resisted the agreement. Today, both the State Department and Congress are talking only about the need to open the Lachin road.

Unable or unwilling to satisfy the separatist group, the United States is now trying to accuse Azerbaijan of lack of courage and hypocrisy.

We have also witnessed the hypocrisy of the United States regarding the “elections” in Garabagh- after the “elections” on September 9, leading states and organizations declared that they did not recognize the illegal regime and its “elections,” but Washington chose to remain silent. Only after pressure from Azerbaijan, the US State Department at the level of its ordinary representative obliged to verbally declare that it did not recognize the “elections.”

A representative of the US State Department sent Louis Bonin to the region, but this visit did not contribute to solving problems in the region and was inconclusive. Because the US is insincere in its intentions and is not interested in peace. Otherwise, US State Department representative Yuri Kim would not have spoken about the non-existent “rights of the people of Nagorno-Garabagh” in his speech in Congress. The United States ignores today’s realities and is making serious efforts to legitimize the military junta in Garabagh.

In fact, today the United States, together with France, is a party that does not allow the process of reintegration of the Armenian minority in Garabagh, and stimulates revanchist forces in Armenia. Thanks to such an open pro-Armenian policy of France, today Paris is completely isolated from regional processes and has lost hope of mediation. If this happens, the same fate awaits the United States, which behaves in the region as Christian missionaries.

It would be naivity to think that Armenia will be benefitted from the current hypocritical policy of the USA. This policy will not benefit anyone. An obstacle to the reintegration process is created in Azerbaijan with the Armenian minority living in its territory, and Armenia becomes a “second Ukraine”. The United States, which incited Ukraine to war with Russia and manipulated the supply of weapons and ammunition to make Kyiv completely dependent on itself, has actually sacrificed Ukraine today. After the death of tens of thousands of Ukrainians, the destruction of cities and villages, and the occupation of almost 25 percent of the country, the United States now wants to force Ukraine to come to terms with its territorial occupation. Just as he tried to push Azerbaijan to come to terms with the occupation of its lands for 30 years.

In this war, in which Ukraine is sacrificed, the USA earns a lot of money and takes complete control of the European gas market with LNG (liquefied natural gas). Due to the damage to the environment, LNG, which is almost as dangerous as black coal, has begun to dominate the European market, but so far no environmental organization, ecoactivists, etc. cannot raise voices to protest.

The situation in which the USA is dragging Ukraine reminds us of the war in Georgia in 2008. Even then, the USA, which incited M. Saakashvili to war with Russia, later backed out, as a result of which Moscow officially formalized the occupation of Georgian territories under its control.

The US tried to turn Turkiye into a “second Syria” and attempted a coup in 2016 by the FETO organization it created and financed. Only thanks to the determination of the Turkish leadership and the support of the people, Turkiye was able to escape from this danger. But even today, terrorist organizations fighting against Turkiye receive instructions, weapons and funding directly from the United States.

The United States, which destroyed Afghanistan and then returned to power the Taliban, which it shamefully fled and declared terrorists, but in fact created itself, shows its true nature at every step by implementing projects of this type. During the 20-year occupation, America did not build a single road or school in Afghanistan.

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Stronger US-Azerbaijan ties can help counter Russia and Iran
Stronger US-Azerbaijan ties can help counter Russia and Iran

Russia’s war against Ukraine has wrought major upheaval across Eurasia, forcing countries to search for new partners as they seek security and stability. Some Eurasian countries are looking to strengthen ties with the United States to maintain regional security and to develop new economic opportunities. Azerbaijan, for example, has sought to further its partnership with the United States on the two countries’ shared strategic interests.

Relations between the United States and Azerbaijan have historically centered on energy transit, most significantly the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the Southern Gas Corridor. In July 2022, Baku signed a new memorandum of understanding with the European Union (EU) to increase Azerbaijani gas exports to the EU from 12 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year to 20 bcm by 2027. Officials in Brussels certainly see the importance of diversifying energy imports away from Russia—European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called Azerbaijan a “reliable” partner in the bloc’s renewed emphasis on energy security.

But Azerbaijan’s geography means it is also a gateway to the countries of Central Asia and the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also known as the Middle Corridor, that connects Europe with China via Central Asia and the South Caucasus. The Middle Corridor provides Europe with a critical alternative to trade routes that pass through Russia and Belarus, the so-called Northern Corridor.

At the same time, the Middle Corridor provides the inverse opportunity for Central Asian countries to reduce dependency on transit through Russia to the European market. It is in Washington’s strategic interest to help develop alternative trade routes between Europe and Central Asia that minimize opportunities for Russian malign interference along the way.

Moreover, Azerbaijan and the United States share a set of strategic interests that may only grow in the coming years. Washington should resist the calls from some commentators to distance itself from Baku. Russia’s war on Ukraine has shaken stability in the South Caucasus, and Moscow may try to claw back influence in the region at the expense of regional peace and security. Greater US engagement with Baku should reinforce a platform for peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Stronger US-Azerbaijan ties can also help counter threats to shared interests emanating from Moscow and Tehran.

The United States has been a major mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan since the early years of the two countries’ conflict over the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan that began in the 1990s. This mediating role gained new importance and urgency following the Second Karabakh War, which ended in November 2020 with Azerbaijan liberating Karabakh and much of its surrounding territory.

While the situation remains tense, leaders in both Armenia and Azerbaijan have worked hard to build lasting peace. Baku and Yerevan have reached important achievements to this end, with one set of peace talks mediated by Russia and a second negotiating platform with the EU and the United States. The turning point came in May, when Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan recognized Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan in the EU-mediated summit in Brussels, following US-mediated talks weeks earlier between the two countries’ foreign ministers in Washington. There are even signs the long-standing dispute over access to the Lachin road is improving, with new reports that humanitarian aid is reaching Karabakh via the Aghdam road.

The peace process is, however, fraught with major challenges.

Some political groups in Armenia and in the diaspora continue to pressure the Pashinyan government against acknowledging Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized sovereignty over Karabakh. Separatist leadership in Karabakh refuses to integrate the region into Azerbaijan and recently undertook unrecognized “elections.” These authorities also receive financial and diplomatic support from Kremlin-connected individuals.

A peace treaty signed via Western mediation and built upon the recognition of Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan would deal a severe blow to Russia’s influence in the region. Such a treaty would create preconditions for the withdrawal of Russia’s peacekeeping mission from the Karabakh region where it was deployed after the 2020 war and, generally, deprive Moscow of one lever of influence against Baku.

This contradiction in the interests of Azerbaijan and Russia has at times strained relations between them. By voicing a plan not to extend the Russian peacekeeping mission beyond 2025 and by investing more in the Western-mediated track of negotiations, Baku regularly challenges Russia’s policies vis-à-vis the peace process.

Azerbaijan stands out as a rare post-Soviet state that has provided humanitarian and political support to Ukraine in the context of the country’s fight against Russian aggression. Azerbaijan has so far sent almost thirty million dollars’ worth of humanitarian aid, including free fuel to ambulances and vehicles operated by the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and power transformers and generators. Azerbaijan’s independent foreign policy course has drawn “bewilderment” from Russia’s foreign ministry and nuclear threats from its political circles.

The Azerbaijani government’s stance on Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine contrasts with the policies of two of its neighbors, Armenia and Iran. Investigations and media reports in Europe and the United States have uncovered how Armenia and some other post-Soviet countries have been assisting Russia to import prohibited goods. Officials both in the United States and the EU have listed Armenia among the states that help Russia to circumvent Western sanctions. Armenia only belatedly sent a small package of humanitarian aid to Ukraine in early September.

Iran has been one of Russia’s most strident military allies in its war, providing Moscow with thousands of Shahed drones that terrorize Ukrainian civilians and helping the Kremlin evade Western sanctions. In October 2022, an Iranian military commander Yahia Rahim Safav reportedly said that Armenia may buy Shahed drones. Baku has long opposed Tehran’s brazenly aggressive foreign policy, even as Iran’s ties with Armenia and Russia may be growing. Significantly, Baku has also redoubled its support for Israel—a major US ally—despite Iran’s anti-Israel threats and increasingly militaristic posture in the region.

The time is right for the United States to strengthen its relationship with Azerbaijan and take the historic opportunity to pursue peace and break ground on a new template for regional stability.

Vasif Huseynov is the head of the Western Studies department at the Center for Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center), a think tank founded by the government of Azerbaijan. He is also a lecturer at Khazar and ADA universities in Baku, Azerbaijan.

Further reading

Image: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken hosts Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan (not pictured) and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov for talks at the George Shultz National Foreign Affairs Training Center in Arlington, Virginia, U.S., June 29, 2023. REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein

Study: The Indo-European language family was born south of Caucasus

Proto-Indo-European (PIE) is a language that gave rise to many others. About 46% of humans, well over three billion people, are native speakers of an Indo-European language. But where did PIE first arise, and who spoke it: pastoralists from the Pontic steppe straddling eastern Europe and west Asia or agrarians from Anatolia in Turkey? The answer to that question has been eluding anthropologists for ages. And now, researchers in the journal Science suggest a third place: the Lesser Caucasus, primarily found in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and parts of eastern Turkey and southern Georgia.

PIE is both the deadest and most alive of languages. The last speaker died thousands of years ago, and if it was ever written down, we don’t know about it. The only evidence of PIE’s existence are the traces it left in the languages that descended from it.

We say “only,” but that is a lot of evidence. Modern descendants of PIE include not only English, Spanish, and Russian, but also Persian, Hindi, Bengali, and dozens more. Indo-European is by far the largest language family in the world. Sino-Tibetan, which includes Mandarin Chinese, is a distant second, with about 1.3 billion native speakers.

For the better part of a century, linguists have been looking for clues to the origin of Indo-European from within the languages themselves. Using phylogenetic analysis — phylogenetics is the study of evolutionary relationships over time, be they organisms or languages — they have reconstructed a vocabulary for PIE that gives us an idea of the culture of the people who spoke it. We know they had words for bear (bʰérōs) and goose (h₂énos), willow (wélə) and honey (méli), and peat (péḱus) and enclosure (h₂órtos).

The old world language family tree.The language families descended from Proto-Indo-European beautifully rendered as the branches of a tree, with each leaf approximating the relative numbers of native speakers of each language. (Credit: Stand Still, Stay Silent by Minna Sundberg)

Based on such evidence, two schools of thought emerged. One proposed that PIE originated some 6,000 years ago in the Pontic-Caspian steppe located north of the Black and Caspian Seas, in the flatlands that stretch from northeast Romania via southern Ukraine and southwestern Russia into the furthest west of Kazakhstan. The nomadic pastoralists who lived here tamed the horse, allowing them to migrate far and wide. This is called the steppe or kurgan hypothesis, the latter after the local word for the prehistoric burial mounds that dot the area.

Other scholars posit an older and more southerly beginning for PIE: around 9,000 years ago in Anatolia. Also known as Asia Minor, this peninsula bordered by the Black, Aegean, and Mediterranean Seas is the westernmost extension of Asia. Today, it is the Asian part of Turkey. The theory is that the language piggybacked on the spread of agriculture from here to large parts of the Old World.

The kurgan hypothesis is the more widely accepted of the two. Many of its proponents think that PIE speakers, kurgan builders, and the ancient Yamnaya culture are actually one and the same. However, conflicting evidence from previous phylogenetic analyses has prevented either hypothesis from completely knocking out the other.

So, the Max Planck team constructed a new dataset of core vocabulary from 161 Indo-European languages that was more comprehensive and balanced than previous samples. Using recent advances in phylogenetic analysis, they were able to estimate that PIE was approximately 8,100 years old, and that five main branches had already split off around 7,000 years ago.

The study’s results fit poorly with both the kurgan and Anatolian hypotheses. As a solution, the researchers propose a third possibility: an early homeland for PIE immediately south of the Caucasus, with one migration veering off north into the steppe. There, PIE speakers established a “secondary homeland,” from where Indo-European entered the rest of Europe beginning 5,000 years ago, courtesy of the Yamnaya and later expansions.

A map of europe with a green area in the middle.Map showing the spread of Indo-European according to the kurgan hypothesis: from the Pontic steppe (dark green) to an area covering most of Europe and large parts of Asia (light green). Note the non-Indo-European language islands in Europe, representing Finnish, Estonian, Hungarian, and Basque. (Credit: Joe Roe, after Wolfgang Haak, CC BY-SA 4.0)

By offering a hybrid of the farming and pastoralist theories about the spread of Indo-European, the south-of-Caucasus hypothesis suggests a solution for an enigma that has dogged the study of Indo-European for about 200 years. Wolfgang Haak, group leader at the department of archaeogenetics at the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, said:

“Aside from a refined time estimate for the overall language tree, the tree topology and branching order are most critical for the alignment with key archaeological events and shifting ancestry patterns seen in the ancient human genome data. This is a huge step forward from the mutually exclusive, previous scenarios, towards a more plausible model that integrates archaeological, anthropological, and genetic findings.”

Strange Maps #1220

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US Senior Advisor for Caucasus Negotiations meets Azerbaijani FM

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Senior Advisor to the US State Department for Negotiations in the South Caucasus, Louis Bono, met with Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov, the Press Service of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry reports.

“During the meeting, the situation in the region, normalization and peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia, current threats and challenges were discussed,” the statement said. Bayramov told Bono that “the obstacle to the implementation of the agreement on the simultaneous opening of the [Akna-Stepanakert] Agdam-Khankendi and [Berdzor] Lachin Corridor, reached during the conversation between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on September 1, is Armenia and the illegal regime it created.”

At the same time, Bayramov began to deny the fact of the blockade and humanitarian crisis in Artsakh.

“Jeyhun Bayramov emphasized the unacceptability of international partners, including the United States, repeating the claims of the Armenian side, despite their well-informed understanding of the situation in the region. He further highlighted that despite Armenia’s ongoing military and political provocations, its worldwide defamation campaign against Azerbaijan, and its support for separatism on our territories, Azerbaijan continues to maintain a constructive stance. […] The head of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry expressed regret that the unfounded allegations of Armenia, which it spreads in order to divert attention from the presence of Armenian armed forces in Azerbaijani territories and mislead the international community, were reflected in the speech of the acting US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Yuri Kim”, the statement further reads.

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Armenians see a new genocide taking place. Azerbaijan sees propaganda.

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The firsthand accounts are harrowing. There’s no food on shelves in stores. Children stand for hours in bread lines to help feed their families. Mothers walk for miles in search of cooking oil and other provisions. Electricity, gas and water are in short supply. Ambulances can’t whir into motion for lack of fuel. Clinics report a surge in miscarriages in pregnant women who are malnourished, anemic and consumed by stress.

Such is the apparent state of the isolated and increasingly desperate ethnic Armenian enclave in Nagorno-Karabakh, whose 120,000 people are enduring what local authorities and a host of international experts describe as a blockade at the hands of Azerbaijan, the country within which the territory sits. Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought multiple wars over Nagorno-Karabakh after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the advent of their independent nation-states. Though recognized by the international community as part of Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh and some areas surrounding it have been governed for decades by a separatist ethnic Armenian entity.

For the entirety of this year, Azerbaijan has restricted movement along the Lachin corridor, the sole route connecting Armenia directly to the enclave, which Armenians refer to as Artsakh. The restrictions intensified this summer, with the International Committee of the Red Cross unable to deliver humanitarian assistance to the region and trucks with hundreds of tons of supplies stranded on the roads. The plight of the afflicted communities led Luis Moreno Ocampo, a former chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, to publish an opinion earlier this month determining that the conditions of starvation inflicted on the enclave’s ethnic Armenians was an act of genocide. He cited an article in the Genocide Convention that referred to “deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction.”

“The idea of genocide is not just about killing, but about removing people from the land,” Moreno Ocampo told me during a phone call this week. In his report, he wrote: “There are no crematories, and there are no machete attacks. Starvation is the invisible genocide weapon. Without immediate dramatic change, this group of Armenians will be destroyed in a few weeks.”

On Wednesday, the situation was discussed at an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council. Various officials, including U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield, called on Azerbaijan to “restore free movement through the corridor.” Armenian foreign minister Ararat Mirzoyan said the deprivation imposed on the enclave was a form of warfare that would lead to the “ethnic cleansing of the people of Nagorno-Karabakh.”

That sentiment was echoed in Washington by a handful of U.S. lawmakers. “Azerbaijan’s systematic ethnic cleansing of the people of Nagorno-Karabakh through a large-scale and unprovoked invasion is unconscionable,” Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) told me, referring to the territory seized by Azerbaijan during a lopsided six-week war in 2020 that saw thousands die. “Particularly egregious is their weaponization of the blockade to starve the people of Nagorno-Karabakh and block humanitarian assistance.”

Responding to these charges, Yashar Aliyev, Azerbaijan’s U.N. envoy, described talk of a blockade as “unfounded and groundless allegations” and said his government was subject to an Armenian “campaign” to “manipulate and mislead the international community.” Officials in Baku claim that the restrictions on movement along the Lachin corridor, which is supposed to be administered by Russian peacekeepers, are necessary to stop, among other things, the illicit supply of arms from Armenia into the enclave. They point to the intransigence of the de facto authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh, who have refused the delivery of supplies through an alternate eastern road from Azerbaijan.

“An administration of occupation is blocking the Azerbaijani government’s provision of food and medicine to an Azerbaijani region. Tellingly, nowhere in the Ocampo report is this mentioned,” wrote Hikmet Hajiyev, top foreign affairs adviser to Azerbaijan’s long-ruling President Ilham Aliyev. “Claiming they are under threat while engineering a crisis to galvanize the international community’s support is intended to convince the world that Azerbaijanis and Armenians cannot live together, as we once did.”

With diplomatic corps we are on the entrance of Agdam-Khankandi highway and railway. Only highway’s daily capacity is 17.000 vehicles. Azerbaijan is building roads not walls for reintegration of armenian residents of Karabakh but they put road blocks and barriers. pic.twitter.com/P3v3J59Fxv

— Hikmet Hajiyev (@HikmetHajiyev) August 16, 2023

The impasse reflects the profound gulf between the two sides. Some analysts believe that Azerbaijan, wealthier and reinforced by Turkish and Israeli arms, is pressing its considerable advantage with the world distracted by the war in Ukraine to apply intolerable pressure on the separatist enclave in its midst. Armenia and Azerbaijan have been locked in rounds of negotiations over a lasting peace settlement that would normalize ties and find an acceptable accommodation over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh.

But the current crisis has highlighted the existential fears and deep-seated enmities felt on both sides. As Armenians around the world raised the alarm over the plight of blockaded Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijani media focused on the discovery of a mass grave of Azerbaijani people in the city of Shusha, dating back to the battles of the 1990s and the area’s occupation by ethnic Armenian forces. The city was “liberated” by Azerbaijan in the brief 2020 war, which saw Baku’s forces seize significant swaths of territory captured by Armenian troops in the earlier phase of the conflict.

Now, some ethnic Armenians who fled Shusha — known to Armenians as Shushi — in 2020 find themselves in even more dire straits. One of those is Alvina Nersesyan, a resident of the enclave and mother, who briefed reporters on a virtual call organized by Armenian officials on Thursday. She described the “fearful” bread lines in Stepanakert, the enclave’s de facto capital, known in Azerbaijan as Khankendi, and lamented that she doesn’t “even say the words for sweets anymore,” lest she upset her deprived children who are “too small to understand the situation.”

The immediate hardships are recognized by diplomats elsewhere. “Access to food, medicine, baby formula and energy should never be held hostage,” Thomas-Greenfield said Wednesday. “We urge the government of Azerbaijan to restore free movement through the corridor.”

“U.S. officials believe that Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh are managing to survive only because of backyard gardens and other home-produced food,” wrote Post columnist David Ignatius. “They fear that within two months, as winter approaches, the population could face starvation. Armenians dread a repetition of the Ottoman genocide of 1915, an ever-present historical memory for Armenians around the world.”

Moreno Ocampo summoned that deep, bitter history, noting that hundreds of thousands of Armenians who perished more than a century ago were driven from their homes by Ottoman forces and left to die of hunger. “Starvation was the weapon of the genocide in 1915 and now Azerbaijan is using starvation against Armenians,” he told me. “It’s tragic but history is repeating, and that’s why humanity has to react.”

Armenians see a new genocide taking place. Azerbaijan sees propaganda. – WP

 

Activists protest in front of the U.N. Office in Yerevan, Armenia, on Aug. 16. (Karen Minasyan/AFP/Getty Images)

The firsthand accounts are harrowing. There’s no food on shelves in stores. Children stand for hours in bread lines to help feed their families. Mothers walk for miles in search of cooking oil and other provisions. Electricity, gas and water are in short supply. Ambulances can’t whir into motion for lack of fuel. Clinics report a surge in miscarriages in pregnant women who are malnourished, anemic and consumed by stress.

Such is the apparent state of the isolated and increasingly desperate ethnic Armenian enclave in Nagorno-Karabakh, whose 120,000 people are enduring what local authorities and a host of international experts describe as a blockade at the hands of Azerbaijan, the country within which the territory sits. Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought multiple wars over Nagorno-Karabakh after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the advent of their independent nation-states. Though recognized by the international community as part of Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh and some areas surrounding it have been governed for decades by a separatist ethnic Armenian entity.

Residents of Nagorno-Karabakh say it’s getting harder to access food and medicines following a months-long Azerbaijani blockade of the region. (Video: Reuters)

For the entirety of this year, Azerbaijan has restricted movement along the Lachin corridor, the sole route connecting Armenia directly to the enclave, which Armenians refer to as Artsakh. The restrictions intensified this summer, with the International Committee of the Red Cross unable to deliver humanitarian assistance to the region and trucks with hundreds of tons of supplies stranded on the roads. The plight of the afflicted communities led Luis Moreno Ocampo, a former chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, to publish an opinion earlier this month determining that the conditions of starvation inflicted on the enclave’s ethnic Armenians was an act of genocide. He cited an article in the Genocide Convention that referred to “deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction.”

“The idea of genocide is not just about killing, but about removing people from the land,” Moreno Ocampo told me during a phone call this week. In his report, he wrote: “There are no crematories, and there are no machete attacks. Starvation is the invisible genocide weapon. Without immediate dramatic change, this group of Armenians will be destroyed in a few weeks.”

On Wednesday, the situation was discussed at an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council. Various officials, including U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield, called on Azerbaijan to “restore free movement through the corridor.” Armenian foreign minister Ararat Mirzoyan said the deprivation imposed on the enclave was a form of warfare that would lead to the “ethnic cleansing of the people of Nagorno-Karabakh.”

That sentiment was echoed in Washington by a handful of U.S. lawmakers. “Azerbaijan’s systematic ethnic cleansing of the people of Nagorno-Karabakh through a large-scale and unprovoked invasion is unconscionable,” Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) told me, referring to the territory seized by Azerbaijan during a lopsided six-week war in 2020 that saw thousands die. “Particularly egregious is their weaponization of the blockade to starve the people of Nagorno-Karabakh and block humanitarian assistance.”

Responding to these charges, Yashar Aliyev, Azerbaijan’s U.N. envoy, described talk of a blockade as “unfounded and groundless allegations” and said his government was subject to an Armenian “campaign” to “manipulate and mislead the international community.” Officials in Baku claim that the restrictions on movement along the Lachin corridor, which is supposed to be administered by Russian peacekeepers, are necessary to stop, among other things, the illicit supply of arms from Armenia into the enclave. They point to the intransigence of the de facto authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh, who have refused the delivery of supplies through an alternate eastern road from Azerbaijan.

“An administration of occupation is blocking the Azerbaijani government’s provision of food and medicine to an Azerbaijani region. Tellingly, nowhere in the Ocampo report is this mentioned,” wrote Hikmet Hajiyev, top foreign affairs adviser to Azerbaijan’s long-ruling President Ilham Aliyev. “Claiming they are under threat while engineering a crisis to galvanize the international community’s support is intended to convince the world that Azerbaijanis and Armenians cannot live together, as we once did.”

The impasse reflects the profound gulf between the two sides. Some analysts believe that Azerbaijan, wealthier and reinforced by Turkish and Israeli arms, is pressing its considerable advantage with the world distracted by the war in Ukraine to apply intolerable pressure on the separatist enclave in its midst. Armenia and Azerbaijan have been locked in rounds of negotiations over a lasting peace settlement that would normalize ties and find an acceptable accommodation over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh.

But the current crisis has highlighted the existential fears and deep-seated enmities felt on both sides. As Armenians around the world raised the alarm over the plight of blockaded Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijani media focused on the discovery of a mass grave of Azerbaijani people in the city of Shusha, dating back to the battles of the 1990s and the area’s occupation by ethnic Armenian forces. The city was “liberated” by Azerbaijan in the brief 2020 war, which saw Baku’s forces seize significant swaths of territory captured by Armenian troops in the earlier phase of the conflict.

Now, some ethnic Armenians who fled Shusha — known to Armenians as Shushi — in 2020 find themselves in even more dire straits. One of those is Alvina Nersesyan, a resident of the enclave and mother, who briefed reporters on a virtual call organized by Armenian officials on Thursday. She described the “fearful” bread lines in Stepanakert, the enclave’s de facto capital, known in Azerbaijan as Khankendi, and lamented that she doesn’t “even say the words for sweets anymore,” lest she upset her deprived children who are “too small to understand the situation.”

The immediate hardships are recognized by diplomats elsewhere. “Access to food, medicine, baby formula and energy should never be held hostage,” Thomas-Greenfield said Wednesday. “We urge the government of Azerbaijan to restore free movement through the corridor.”

“U.S. officials believe that Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh are managing to survive only because of backyard gardens and other home-produced food,” wrote Post columnist David Ignatius. “They fear that within two months, as winter approaches, the population could face starvation. Armenians dread a repetition of the Ottoman genocide of 1915, an ever-present historical memory for Armenians around the world.”

Moreno Ocampo summoned that deep, bitter history, noting that hundreds of thousands of Armenians who perished more than a century ago were driven from their homes by Ottoman forces and left to die of hunger. “Starvation was the weapon of the genocide in 1915 and now Azerbaijan is using starvation against Armenians,” he told me. “It’s tragic but history is repeating, and that’s why humanity has to react.”

Pre-visit of chewed up and spat out diplomat to Azerbaijan

First they start on a positive note, then they start to reveal their true hypocritical nature. However, for the time being, we are not talking about France, or a group of pro-Armenian officials represented at the UN. This time we are talking about the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Belgium, Hadja Lahbib, who first identified himself as a diplomat and later revealed her true prejudice against Azerbaijan.

A couple of days ago, when the information about her visit was spread, the Belgian Minister of Foreign Affairs showed a more positive position regarding the resolution of the ongoing Armenian-Azerbaijani tension in the South Caucasus. However, Lahbib, who started her first trip from Armenia, somehow damaged the reputation of the European Union with her diplomatic illiteracy. It is likely that Hadja Lahbib did not even look at the agenda related to the region prior to her visit to the South Caucasus. After all, why look? Because everyone believes that Hadja Lahbib is successfully following the path of French diplomats.

A Belgian “diplomat” in Armenia meets with the soldiers of an occupying state crushed under the iron fist and presents them with flowers. Lahbib’s French-style action presented her purpose and position to the public at the first moment.

Perhaps she has never asked herself the question on whose territory that soldier whom she hugged before fought and received the deserved punishment. Lahbib completely devoted herself to Armenia, stepping on the diplomatic behavior of Charles Michel, the President of the Council of Europe, in Brussels. Whatever the reason that made her to this request, it was not received unambiguously for Azerbaijan.

The Belgian Minister of Foreign Affairs, who participated in the briefing in Yerevan, demonstrated her insidious behavior and even attepted to send a note against the Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov: “The rights and security of the population of “Nagorno-Karabakh” must be respected, let me remind my Azerbaijani colleague about this .”

The next corrupt pro-Armenian example of Europe has astrayed so much that she did not even respect the opinion of the President of the Council of Europe Michel about recognizing the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan.

You probably won’t take my criticism wrong. Indeed, Azerbaijan has no prejudice against Lahbib. We have never seen her contribution to conflict resolution before. But what we have seen is that Lahbib is indeed biased towards conflicts.

It would not be wrong to say that the issue of Georgia in the South Caucasus is at the same level as Garabagh. It is good that Hadja Lahbib one in her lifetime could express an honest and objective position on this issue. Following the European Union mission team, the so-called diplomat, who was watching the territories with binoculars in her hand, allegedly demanded the recognition of Georgia’s territorial integrity within the framework of international laws. The question is, what is the problem with Azerbaijan, Mrs. Hadja? Why don’t your binoculars show Garabagh correctly? We have no doubt that Abkhazia and South Ossetia are occupied territories, and so is it, according to your opinion; then why is Garabagh strange to your statement?

You say that there is no question of self-determination of peoples in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. But when it comes to Garabagh, your opinions change 180 degrees, and you are not ashamed to even express biased opinions. But we were ashamed for you. We are ashamed that you, as a diplomat, destroyed the image of the Council of Europe and the Parliament of the European Union and masterfully demonstrated your diplomatic illiteracy. At least you should be abashed to refuse to come to Azerbaijan after your rascal behavior. You deserve to bow only to the invading soldier. I am afraid to say that even though Azerbaijan remains true to its diplomatic culture while coming here, the spirits of our Martyrs over these lands will not leave you alone. So we strongly advise you not to come at all. Maybe this will calm your “honor” and “conscience” sold for some pennies…

Elnur Enveroglu is AzerNews’ deputy editor-in-chief, follow him on @ElnurMammadli1

Follow us on Twitter @AzerNewsAz

With Friends Like These
Turkey-Az.jpg

Turkey’s brinksmanship in the South Caucasus puts a spotlight on tensions within NATO.

On Friday, the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan flew to Moscow for ceasefire talks. A “humanitarian ceasefire” was announced earlier this week, but at the time of writing appears to have broken down. “Let those holding talks in Moscow know that it’s our territory and we won’t be making any concessions,” Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev remarked of the prospects for peace on Friday, foreshadowing this week’s renewed violence. Currently at an advantage, Azerbaijan has little incentive to return to the negotiating table.
In the past, when tensions around Nagorno-Karabakh flared up, neither side gained sufficient advantage to force the other side into concessions. By default or design, Moscow has ended up as an arbiter. This time, however, Turkey seems to be tipping the scales in Azerbaijan’s favor, with the other two regional powers, Russia and Iran, pleading for peace. In an unlikely turn, Western leaders today find themselves in the unlikely position of being more aligned with governments in Moscow and Tehran than their own NATO ally.
Aggressively backing Azerbaijan is in line with Turkey’s increasingly assertive, interventionist foreign policy developed under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Turkey has pursued unilateral military interventions in Syria and Libya, pressured Greece and Cyprus over expanding maritime borders, and is now backing Azerbaijan’s territorial cause in the South Caucasus. Its military interventions in Syria and Libya have been condemned by many European countries, and with French leadership, the EU has threatened Turkey with sanctions over the Mediterranean maritime border dispute.
The security guarantees afforded by its NATO membership may be emboldening Turkey to use military force when it knows that deterrence keeps adversaries at bay. Especially in the South Caucasus, it’s conceivable that Turkey’s strategists are calculating they can escalate conflicts without fear of Russia directly retaliating on Turkish soil. Early last week, Turkey’s foreign minister was downright dismissive of Russian calls for an immediate ceasefire on his visit to Baku.
Russia has every reason to want to do something about Turkish behavior. As Samuel Ramani, a DPhil candidate in the Department of Politics and International Relations at the University of Oxford, pointed out, “[Russia] views Turkey’s seamless integration of Syrian proxy militias alongside the Azerbaijani military as worrisome, as that show that Ankara could mobilize Syrians for its own purposes effectively in more places that just Libya.” Unanswered provocations send signals of their own.
That said, Turkey does not have a completely free hand in the region either. Earlier in the conflict, Armenia accused Turkey of shooting down one of its military jets, which Turkey vehemently denied. Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russian-led alliance modeled on its North Atlantic adversary. The CSTO is often dismissed as a paper tiger, but its existence complicates the calculus of all the players. Russia’s prestige in the region, as well as its credibility as a security provider, is on the line, and we do not know to what extent Turkey is willing to test these commitments. For now, the CSTO’s involvement is mostly a question of escalation—whether there is a credible threat on Armenian soil. The CSTO’s treaty obligations do not extend to Nagorno-Karabakh (which is not part of Armenia and which even Armenia has not recognized as independent), so there is ample gray area for Turkey to act. Known tensions between Putin’s regime and the government of Nikol Pashinyan could also prompt Turkish brinksmanship.

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Neighboring Iran is the other uneasy and interested spectator in the region. The country has enjoyed a close relationship with Armenia, but it has a sizeable Azeri minority living within its borders (representing 16% of Iran’s total population, more than the total number living in Azerbaijan proper). The leadership in Tehran cannot afford to alienate either side. At the same time, it also wants to avoid spillover of regional violence and is eyeing Turkey’s presence at its borders. So despite attempts to signal a neutral stance, Iran has allowed Russia to transport military supplies through to Armenia.
Nicole Grajewski, an international security fellow at Harvard’s Belfer Center, noted Iran’s seriousness in taking on a mediator role in alleviating the conflict, but highlighted the geostrategic difficulties facing any settlement. While Russia and Iran would prefer a return to the pre-July status quo and may want to re-freeze the conflict as quickly as possible, Turkey has incentives to push on for longer. Part of the motivation is domestic; saber-rattling nationalists upset with Turkey’s humiliation in the current Greece talks need to be deflected. But, Ramani says, Turkey does not want to risk pushing Russia and Iran away simultaneously, thereby both further intensifying its international isolation and straining peace negotiations in Syria.
Thus far, the West has gone missing in the conflict. This is attributable to a lack of on-the-ground presence on the one hand, as well as to uncertainty at getting involved in a complicated fight where Turkey, Russia, and Iran already dominate. Still, allowing a NATO member to court conflict so openly hardly seems like optimal policy. CEPA’s Lauren Speranza thinks NATO needs to find a way to help de-escalate the situation at a higher level, as the United States tried to do with Russia in Syria. For better or for worse, Erdoğan’s Turkey is an ally, and the Alliance will have to stand by it. The goal has to be to avoid an unintended escalation spiral should either Russia or Turkey somehow miscalculate.
Letting Russia, Turkey and Iran take the lead on brokering peace—or another ceasefire—may be the best available option, even if prospects for a lasting agreement are dim under such leadership. Western leaders, however, can’t afford to be complacent. Even the best-case outcome in Nagorno-Karabakh should lead to serious soul-searching in the Alliance. Having an erratic and increasingly authoritarian regime as a partner poses risks all its own.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.

Europe’s Edge

CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America.

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