Global oil production and trade are expected to return to pre-conflict levels by the end of 2026, although “shut-in” volumes are forecast to average 1.4 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter and overall production is expected to return to previous levels in the first quarter of 2027, Report informs, citing the monthly report of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Oil production in Middle Eastern countries fell by 8.3 million barrels per day in June after reaching a peak decline of 11.2 million barrels per day in May amid the conflict.
The EIA estimates that, following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a ceasefire memorandum between the United States and Iran, “shut-in” volumes in the Persian Gulf will decline to 8.3 million barrels per day in June, compared with a peak of 11.2 million barrels per day in May.
Global hydrocarbon production in 2026 is now expected to fall by 4.23 million barrels per day, instead of the 7.1 million barrels per day projected a month earlier. Experts now expect global supplies in 2026 to decline from 106.12 million barrels per day to 101.89 million barrels per day.
The EIA said global supply in 2027 is expected to increase by almost 8 million barrels per day to 109.84 million barrels per day. In its previous report, the agency had forecast a rise of 10.3 million barrels per day to 109.3 million barrels per day.