BY ARUNANSH B. GOSWAMI
“Quad” is a term used quite often in geopolitical discourse nowadays. India, the United States, Japan and Australia have an informal security dialogue called the “Quadrilateral Security Dialogue,” also known as the “Quad,” with a shared objective to ensure and support a “free, open and prosperous” Indo-Pacific region. This term, with a geostrategic focus on the Indo-Pacific, is now entering the geopolitical conversations in the Eastern Mediterranean, South Caucasus and Western Europe.
Defense Minister of Greece Nikolaos Dendias, who arrived in the Republic of Armenia on March 4 on the invitation of his Armenian counterpart Suren Papikyan, said, “We have established successful trilateral defense cooperation between Armenia, Greece and Cyprus. However, there may also be other trilateral or quadrilateral relations with France and India, with significant countries, important powers, and very influential common allies of Armenia and Greece.” The minister’s proposal has been reported by several prominent newsgroups worldwide.
Why is it that India, in the Indo-Pacific, traditionally close to Russia, France in Western Europe, a NATO member, Greece in Eastern Mediterranean region, a NATO member, and Armenia in the South Caucasus, a member of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization, are becoming increasingly, geopolitically closer in the contemporary world? The answer is complex, but can be simplified substantially in two words: “National Interests.”
All these countries are a part of a group of countries that cherish democratic values. It is important for readers to know that both Greece and India claim to be the first democratic countries, and abhor dictatorial governments and their nexus with military expansionism to bolster their strength amongst domestic audiences.
Political-Islam or Islamism is a challenge to civilizational values of all these countries. Robin Wright and Garret Nada—with research contributions by Jordanna Yochai—wrote for the Wilson Center, “After a half century, Islamism has become the single most disruptive force—both politically and militarily—in the Middle East.”
This ideology is being exported to Greece, India, and France through illegal migrants, who over the years have had problems adapting to the civilizational values of their new homes. The Justice and Development Party of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is deeply rooted in Islamism. In the 2023 elections, Erdogan’s party aligned with the Nationalist Movement Party, which advocated Turkish Islamism, Free Cause Party, a Kurdish Islamist party.
Though both Greece and Turkey are members of NATO, as per a report by Michael Rubin for American Enterprise Institute in 2023, Erdogan threatened Greeks and said, “Keep in mind that the Crazy Turks will come if you attempt to make a mistake,” during a rally.
As per a report by France24, President Emmanuel Macron accused Turkey of seeking to promote anti-French sentiments in Africa by funding people who whip up resentment against France in the media, according to an interview published Friday.
It appears that both France and Greece want to pull India and Armenia out of the zone of Russian friendship and bring them closer to the West, though it is unlikely for India—a military giant with a nuclear arsenal—to give up it’s “non-alignment” approach and equidistance from the West and Russia any time soon. But, unlike India, it is very possible to get Armenia join the “Western bloc,” especially after the so-called betrayal of Russia to the Armenian Cause in the second Nagorno-Karabakh war and it’s aftermath.
Armenia’s growing chasm with Russia is apparent, as the country’s leaders have officially asked Russia to withdraw its border guards from Yerevan’s Zvartnots airport, according to a report by RadioFreeEurope RadioLiberty. “Armenia has a clear position in this matter. The Russian Federation was informed via an official letter about that clear position,” Armenian Security Council Secretary Armen Grigorian told reporters on March 6, adding that, according to Yerevan’s position, the airport must be served solely by Armenian border troops.
At a forum held in Brussels on November 10 titled “The Strategic Future of Armenia: Armenia-Europe,” Grigoryan said, “There is of course the idea of Euro-integration in Armenia, but there is also the idea of becoming a country with non-bloc status, so there’s a wide range of options.” Getting Armenia closer to Euro-Atlantic security institutions appears much easier than before now, to both France and Greece.
While India and France upgraded their partnership to the strategic level in 1998, India and Greece upgraded their relationship to a strategic partnership in 2023. Armenia over the years has become closer to both India and France, according to Defense Minister Papikyan, who said, “India and France have become our main partners in the defense sphere.”
“If Armenia manages to sign a trilateral agreement with France and India, the country’s security level will increase significantly,” said Aram Sargsyan the leader of the “Republic” party and former prime minister, reported JAMnews Yerevan.
Sargsyan believes that with such a document in place, Azerbaijan “will think twice before shelling Armenia.” Greece, India, France and Armenia have many reasons to enter into a quadrilateral security cum development alliance or partnership. Now, it’s up to the political leaders of these countries to decide when we will officially arrive to this consensus.
Arunansh B. Goswami is an author, historian and advocate in the Supreme Court of India. He is a member of the Bar Association of Delhi and the Supreme Court Bar Association in India. Goswami has written on the history, culture and politics of various countries in several national and international publications. He was a member Armenia’s delegation to the 2024 Raisina Dialogue.