After depleting foreign exchange reserves in October, the National Bank of Georgia (NBG) appears to be trying to replenish them by limiting foreign exchange surpluses in the market.
What Is the Move?
On November 27, the NBG’s Financial Stability and Monetary Policy Committee raised the minimum reserve requirement on banks’ foreign currency liabilities by five percentage points. This means that commercial banks in Georgia will have to hold more funds as reserves with the NBG. Previously, banks were required to reserve between 10 and 20 percent of their foreign currency funds. With this change, they will now have to hold more – 15 to 25 percent – of these funds at the NBG.
The National Bank said the move was aimed at preventing excess foreign currency in the market from leading to more dollar-denominated loans; in other words, to promote “larization” and “reduce the structural risks caused by the high level of financial dollarization“ in the financial system. It cited “uncertainty” in October as a factor contributing to the increase of foreign currency in the domestic market.
During the pre-election period, the NBG sold USD 591 million of its foreign exchange reserves, a record for one month. The sale of foreign exchange is aimed at protecting the national currency from devaluation.
“In September-October we noticed that some citizens and companies, who had some fears about the exchange rate, converted some of their current accounts from GEL [national currency] to foreign currencies. As a result, an excessive amount of foreign currency has accumulated in the market, and now we have seen as a kind of risk that the banks might be tempted to give this money [in foreign currency] as loans to citizens and companies,” said Davit Utiashvili, head of the NBG’s Financial Stability Department. [quoted by BM.GE]. According to him, the reason for the NBG’s decision was to prevent excess foreign exchange in the market to be used for loans by commercial banks.
Critics’ Concerns
But this move also means that these funds will be transferred from the market to the NBG’s (rump) reserves, in an apparent attempt to replenish them after the unprecedented sales in October. However, the foreign currency funds of commercial banks are not net reserves of the National Bank.
“In reality, the National Bank made this decision because the reserves decreased significantly in October, and with this move it is possible to replenish the reserves with about 350 million US dollars,” wrote Roman Gotsiridze, ex-president of the National Bank, in social media.
Gotsiridze believes that this method of filling foreign currency reserves is fictitious and will not work. “The reserves created in this way are not net reserves, it only beautifies the picture on paper. This money is the National Bank’s debt to the commercial banks.”
“And we all know the reason why the reserves have fallen below the critical level. This is the result of Georgian Dream’s irresponsible, anti-Western and pro-Russian pre-election campaign. An attempt to partially restore them [the reserves] will cost the economy in the form of overpriced loans and depositors in the form of reduced interest income,” Gotsiridze added.
Further Measures
From 1 January 2025, individuals receiving a salary in local currency will not be able to borrow less than the equivalent of GEL 500,000 in foreign currency, up from GEL 400,000. According to the NBG, the move is again aimed at reducing the dollarization of the market.
This doesn’t directly transfer foreign currency from the market to the National Bank’s reserves, but it may limit foreign currency lending, reduce the surplus in the market, and strengthen the national currency.
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