In October 2023, Poland’s opposition parties unseated an entrenched government against steep odds. Their strategy was built on cooperation, message discipline, and broad voter mobilization. These insights from Poland, recently presented to audiences in Tbilisi, can offer inspiration as opposition parties and civil society activists in Georgia are gearing up for upcoming parliamentary elections at the end of October.
Hans Gutbrod teaches at Ilia State University. He holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from the London School of Economics and has been working in the Caucasus region since 1999. His recent book “Ethics of Political Commemoration: Towards a New Paradigm” (with David Wood, 2023) proposes that the just war tradition can help to order public debates on remembrance.
What can Georgians learn from the success of Poland’s opposition parties against their own nativist government? In the fall of 2023, an opposition coalition impressively unseated the nativist Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość/ PiS) party in Poland. The group had helped a politician launch her parliamentary career and has also had other electoral successes. In mid-September, a group of young Polish campaign professionals from the NGO “Zryw” visited Tbilisi to share their experience.
In 2023, the Polish opposition parties were up against a major challenge. They faced an authoritarian opponent that had captured many government institutions. The Catholic Church was mostly on the side of PiS. The independent media had been under pressure, as evidenced by the drop of the media freedom ranking from 18th place in 2015 to 57th in 2023. The government used public money to boost its own campaign, funding a range of summer events with less-than-clear separation of government and PiS.
Economically, the government apparently manipulated the oil price to reduce inflation indicators. There was also foul play. The government had initially sought to disqualify the opposition’s leading candidate, Donald Tusk. Moreover, there seems to have been systematic surveillance, including using spyware to break into the phones of opposition figures. At least some of these features—nativist narratives, state capture, restriction of media freedom, administrative resources in elections, foul play—were familiar to the audience in Tbilisi.
The PiS government had also taken an adversarial course towards the European Union, resulting in Brussels blocking about €130 billion of EU funds over rule-of-law concerns.
Would the opposition parties be able to put the country back on the path to constitutional order? As in other countries, the opposition parties could have made the argument that democracy was on the ballot. Yet opposition parties decided to fight the election on “bread and butter” issues, including inflation, corruption “that had become increasingly difficult to ignore,” and women’s rights, which the PiS government had restricted. Democracy and the EU were threaded into the election, but more immediate concerns were at the forefront.
Cooperation, Discipline, Civic Engagement
“How did we win?” The Polish strategists highlighted that opposition cooperation, message discipline, and high civic engagement helped them prevail. While opposition parties did not unite, they agreed to cooperate and made sure not to attack each other. As Tusk had put it: “Democracy does not mean unity of thought. We will differ, argue, and elect different parties – but we will respect each other.”
Each partner had their focus. One party highlighted that there would be a better standard of living by engaging with the EU and ensuring investment. Another partner engaged with rural and more conservative voters, including small businesses owners. The third grouping appealed to the progressive electorate, emphasizing women’s rights. At least some parties were relentless about message discipline, kicking candidates from the party list if they freelanced too much. This was described as harsh, but it showed that the parties could muster the discipline to govern.
The opposition parties sought to build momentum. One of the parties organized “1000 meetings”, many of which were small get-togethers and picnics. The sheer number communicated to citizens that if they wanted to talk to someone from a party, they could. The more rurally focused party promoted a map with a path running across the country to show where they would hold rallies – most of them in some of Poland’s smaller cities.
Two marches showed that the opposition parties had strong support in the country, with one march in Warsaw happening in early October 2023, two weeks before the election. At this event, the main idea was to demonstrate presence and momentum, rather than a detailed political message. One opposition party did not participate, but was still complimented for holding meetings out in the regions while the big rally was in the capital.
As a result, the campaign managed to mobilize voters. Nearly 75% of Poles turned out, providing the highest turnout in recent Polish history, which usually is around 60% (even for the first democratic elections, it had merely reached 63%). Civil society focused on getting out the vote – and making sure they got out the specific voters they actually wanted to come out, often in clever and engaging ways.
Emotional Engagement and Canvassing
There were both positive and negative tactical tools. On the positive side, there was an investment in appealing symbolism. The parties used songs that were already in circulation. Even unspecific lyrics about reclaiming one’s beautiful homeland helped to arouse emotions. On the negative side, the opposition parties worked to demobilize PiS voters. Giant billboards across the country displpayed a simple text: “PiS = High Prices,” driving home the message about inflation and the cost of living.
One aspect that makes negative messaging easier, according to the Polish strategists, is that “you are not seeking to persuade, but rather to demobilize.” One song – “f*%k PiS” – from the 2020 protests against an abortion ban caught the mood of many. Video clips highlighted the inconsistencies in PiS governance. While running on an anti-immigration platform, PiS had allowed a cash-for-visa scheme to flourish. Not all of the demobilization was straightforward. In some cases, the opposition parties had to at least acknowledge nativist sentiment, even as they sought to turn it around.
Canvassing was important to the Polish campaign. Community events have their role, but they are expensive, and the same – already-convinced – people turn up. You had to go to the voters. For door-to-door, the campaign group sent ahead a volunteer to ensure that the candidate met people who wanted to engage. To meet more voters in a short time, the campaign also went where the voters were – like bus stops – with flyers or memorable and usable trinkets in hand to start a conversation, usually with a team of three to four people. (While there were some unpleasant moments, violence was not a feature of the campaign.)
What were some other lessons? Make lots of videos, “connecting to your voters and showing positive emotions: share your smiles and handshakes.” Talk about ideas in a simple manner and distill your message into a few key phrases. Make it personal: what do you do in your free time? What are your interests? “People vote for someone they know.” These engagements also help to collect data. While gathering data takes extra effort, but it tells you what resonates where and with whom.
Set the Question of the Election
As one of the presenters put it, their underlying theory is that you win elections by setting the question of the election—not by answering the question set by it. For that reason, too, the presentation did not focus much on how PiS ran its campaign. The opposition parties defined the election on their terms.
What could be some key takeaways for Georgia? The Polish campaign professionals had three main suggestions.
- Work together. Definitely do not attack each other, and show the ability to work together, for example by holding press conferences together across parties.
- Stay disciplined and on message, with constructive cooperation and agree on a targeting strategy.
- Believe in victory, as positive momentum is key to turnout.
This summary conveys only part of a presentation rich in substance and detail. Not one person in the audience failed to see the parallels to their own context. As authoritarian regimes across the world collaborate, those who oppose them should also learn from each other.
(The strategists from Zryw can be reached at an email address: kontakt at fundacjazryw.pl)
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