Day: April 30, 2025
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Price of Azeri Light falls
Azerbaijan–China partnership
The signing of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership agreement between Azerbaijan and China marked the beginning of a new phase in relations between the two countries. Political commentator Elman Fattah and historian Jamil Hasanli believe that this stage raises concerns about the future of the Azerbaijani state.
The agreement was signed in Beijing by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The document includes around 20 agreements — ranging from visa liberalisation to energy, digital technologies, and transport infrastructure — and holds significant weight for Azerbaijan’s future political and economic alignment.
Although these agreements offer new opportunities for Azerbaijan’s economic development, public debate is growing over their political, social, and geopolitical implications.
Elman Fattah: Agreement with China is flexible authoritarian diplomacy
Political commentator and co-founder of ResPlatform, Elman Fattah, believes that Azerbaijan’s quicker signing of the agreement with China — compared to the EU — is due to the fact that the Chinese side does not impose democratic obligations.
In an interview with JAMnews, Fattah stated that the prolonged negotiations with Europe, ongoing since 2009, are due to demands concerning human rights and the rule of law, which are unacceptable to the Azerbaijani government.
“Authoritarian systems come to agreements with each other more quickly and flexibly because there are no mechanisms of democratic oversight. In that sense, China is the ‘ideal partner’.”
In Fattah’s view, visa-free travel may promote tourism, but it could also lead to a mass influx of Chinese migrants and pose risks to social security. This, he argues, can be seen as a concession made more in the interest of preserving power than serving the state.
“The fact that the Azerbaijani regime — which keeps its borders closed under the pretext of security — considers this visa-free regime acceptable shows that it poses no direct threat to the government. But it could cause serious harm to the state.”
Russia’s role
Elman Fattah notes that the agreement aligns with Russia’s interests, which also benefits Azerbaijan, as the country is one of the active members of the international authoritarian coalition.
“The two leading countries in this informal coalition are China and Russia. The agreement will strengthen ties between Aliyev and Putin, since China maintains close, high-level relations with Putin. If there is tension between Aliyev and Putin, China will take steps to normalise those relations,” Fattah stated.
Azerbaijan is deepening ties with China, drifting away from Europe?
According to the political commentator, the agreement with China and cooperation with the EU are separate issues. Aliyev wants an economic agreement with the EU without any human rights or democratic conditions — just like the one with China. Fattah recalls that in the gas agreement signed with the EU in 2022, such requirements were not raised; only issues of gas transit and trade were discussed.
“The EU has become a geography without a leader — it cannot consistently defend its principles. Aliyev believes he is currently in a strong position, and that the EU wants to maintain relations with him. However, if the EU shows political will, it could use Azerbaijan’s economic dependence (91% of budget revenue comes from oil, and 70% of foreign trade is with Western countries) as leverage, impose limits on the agreement with China, and push Aliyev toward reforms.”
Jamil Hasanli: “Promotion of Chinese universities is a tragedy, a sign of misunderstanding and ignorance”
Historian and chairman of the National Council of Democratic Forces, Jamil Hasanli, wrote on his Facebook page that following the signing of the agreement with China, the discussion around sending students not to Western or American universities but to Chinese ones is “an absolutely wrong and harmful approach.”
“If the country needs specialists in Chinese language, history, culture, or the study of Chinese sources, then students can be sent to top universities in China. However, in other fields, even the Chinese themselves send their children to Western universities such as Harvard, Princeton, Columbia, Stanford, Berkeley, Yale, Oxford, Cambridge, the London School of Economics, the Sorbonne, and Humboldt. And Azerbaijan is sending its youth to China.”
He described the closure of the Erasmus+ student exchange programme in Azerbaijan and the promotion of Chinese universities as a “tragedy, a sign of misunderstanding and ignorance.”
“I have worked at institutions such as the University of London, LSE, Oxford, Cambridge, Harvard, Princeton, and Georgetown, where there are many Chinese students. In 2016–2017, I was a visiting professor at East China Normal University in Shanghai and also lectured at Peking University and Lanzhou University.
I know the level of education at these universities. The main dream of Chinese families is to send their children to Western universities. Sending Azerbaijan’s youth to China and promoting this direction is a mistake.
For a long time, North Korea’s youth studied in China — now Azerbaijan wants to follow the same path.”
Azerbaijan is deepening ties with China
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The Daily Beat: 29 April
On the early morning of April 29, officers from the Georgian Prosecutor’s Office and, in some cases, representatives of the State Security Service searched the homes of public fund managers supporting the ongoing protests. The Prosecutor’s Office announced that the inquiry focuses on charges like sabotage, aiding foreign entities in hostile activities, and financing actions against Georgia’s constitutional order.
The Tbilisi Court of Appeals has denied refugee or humanitarian status to detained Temur Katamadze (Gaffar Yilmaz), a Turkish citizen of Georgian descent, a decision that means his imminent deportation to Turkey. Katamadze, 57, known as the protests’ “flag bearer”, has lived in Georgia since 2012 and is known for being at the forefront of pro-EU rallies in Batumi.
Nika Melia, an opposition politician from the Coalition for Change, has been ordered by the Tbilisi City Court to pay a bail of GEL 50,000. This decision comes after he failed to appear before a temporary parliamentary commission established by the Georgian Dream party to investigate alleged crimes committed during the previous United National Movement (UNM) government. For more updates on the ongoing repressions, don’t forget to follow our live blog.
Family members of individuals detained during pro-EU protests called on the Georgian Public Broadcaster (GPB) to allocate live airtime within three days and to begin comprehensive live coverage of ongoing court proceedings. The families emphasized that “only the public broadcaster has the authority to videotape court proceedings,” which they say is crucial for ensuring transparency and fair information for the public.
Four individuals were arrested on charges of assaulting Tengiz Koberidze, the director of the Shukruti mine, amid rising tensions in an ongoing labor dispute between miners and the management company in Chiatura, a western industrial town in Georgia. The residents of Chiatura have heavily depended on the mining industry for decades, but are currently facing a severe financial crisis as protests have intensified in recent months.
The European Union is considering actions in response to Georgia’s democratic decline and worsening human rights situation. Possible measures include suspending visa liberalization, freezing EU candidate status, and reviewing the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA). European Commissioner for Enlargement, Marta Kos, mentioned these options in an interview and noted that dialogue with the Georgian Dream government could help realign Georgia with European values.
Georgian Dream elected President, Mikheil Kavelashvili, is on his first official visit to Armenia on April 28-29. He has already met with Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturyan and will meet with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Catholicos of All Armenians Karekin II. You can read more on the President’s trip to Armenia in our story.
Former chairman of the Constitutional Court of Georgia, Merab Turava, was appointed as Deputy Justice Minister on April 29. Turava, who is among a group of GD officials sanctioned by Lithuania, has served as chairman of the Constitutional Court from June 2020 until his term expired on March 30, 2025.
IMF stress tests confirm the resilience of Azerbaijan’s banking system under baseline scenarios. However, in more severe situations, the overall capital adequacy ratio could decline to 4.5%. Alarmingly, 8 of the 23 banks -representing 35% of the sector’s assets – could require recapitalization, albeit with a relatively modest estimated capital gap of 0.5% of GDP….