Day: April 25, 2025

In a significant diplomatic setback for Turkey, four Central Asian nations—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan—have moved to strengthen ties with Greece and the Republic of Cyprus, endorsing Cyprus’s sovereignty in a move that undermines Ankara’s long-standing efforts to legitimize the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). This development, highlighted during the recent European Union-Central Asia summit in Samarkand on April 4, 2025, marks a pivotal shift in regional dynamics and challenges Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s vision of a unified Turkic bloc under Turkey’s leadership.

According to reports, the Central Asian states explicitly supported UN Security Council resolutions 541 (1983) and 550 (1984), which condemn Turkey’s 1983 unilateral declaration of the TRNC and call for non-recognition of the breakaway entity. This stance, formalized in a joint declaration, represents a diplomatic victory for the European Union and Cyprus, reinforcing the international community’s recognition of the Republic of Cyprus as the sole legitimate government of the island. The move has been interpreted as a rejection of Turkey’s attempts to leverage the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) to gain recognition for the TRNC, a key pillar of Erdoğan’s broader “Pan-Turkism” strategy.

The decision by these Central Asian nations, all members of the OTS, is particularly stinging for Turkey, given Erdoğan’s personal investment in fostering linguistic and ethnic ties with the region. Analysts suggest that the EU’s €12 billion investment package for Central Asia, announced prior to the summit, may have incentivized these countries to align more closely with European interests, prioritizing economic benefits over historical ties with Turkey.

The implications for Turkey are multifaceted. Domestically, the setback could fuel criticism of Erdoğan’s foreign policy, which has often been accused of overreaching. Regionally, it complicates Turkey’s efforts to assert influence in the Eastern Mediterranean, where tensions with Greece and Cyprus persist over maritime boundaries and energy projects, such as the Greece-Cyprus-Israel power cable. Turkish officials have previously labeled the cable project “provocative” for disregarding the rights of Turkish Cypriots, prompting warnings of potential military responses.

Greece, meanwhile, has welcomed the Central Asian pivot as a boost to its regional standing. Greek Foreign Minister George Gerapetritis, speaking in Athens, emphasized that improved Greek-Turkish relations could facilitate broader cooperation, including on Cyprus-related issues. However, significant differences remain, particularly over maritime boundaries in the Aegean Sea, where Turkey has threatened conflict if Greece extends its territorial waters.

On the Cypriot front, President Nikos Christodoulides has downplayed concerns about escalating tensions with Turkey, insisting that Cyprus will act within the bounds of international law. The Republic of Cyprus, an EU member state, continues to advocate for a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation to resolve the island’s division, a model opposed by Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar and Turkey, who insist on a two-state solution.

The Central Asian nations’ decision also reflects broader geopolitical trends, including China’s growing influence in the region and the United States’ efforts to counterbalance Turkey’s regional ambitions.

While the narrative of a “major setback” for Turkey is prominent in Western and Cypriot media, it’s worth questioning the permanence of this shift. Central Asian states have historically balanced relations with multiple powers, including Russia, China, and Turkey, to maximize economic and political leverage. Their support for Cyprus’s sovereignty may be a pragmatic move to secure EU investment rather than a definitive rejection of Turkey. Furthermore, Turkey’s military presence in Northern Cyprus and its strategic position in NATO suggest that Ankara retains significant influence, despite this diplomatic hiccup.

The fallout from this development will likely influence upcoming UN-mediated talks on Cyprus, with Greece and Cyprus emboldened by international support. For Turkey, recalibrating its approach to Central Asia and the Cyprus issue will be critical to maintaining its regional clout. As the Eastern Mediterranean remains a flashpoint, the international community will be watching closely to see whether dialogue or confrontation prevails.