Day: April 23, 2025

Executive Summary

This report assesses the geopolitical implications of President Ilham Aliyev’s state visit to China from April 22 to 24, 2025, within the broader context of Azerbaijan’s developing foreign policy.

The two countries elevated their bilateral relationship to a “comprehensive strategic partnership,” reflecting a new phase of cooperation that extends beyond trade and infrastructure to encompass green energy, technology, and regional integration.

As Baku merges its place in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and advances its role in the Middle Corridor, this visit underscores Azerbaijan’s strategy of expanding ties with Beijing while simultaneously maintaining relations with the European Union.

The growing economic interdependence with China, however, poses complex strategic implications for Azerbaijan’s geopolitical balancing act.

Key Takeaways

• Azerbaijan and China have upgraded their relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership, strengthening cooperation in energy, infrastructure, and digital technologies.
• Baku’s integration into Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative and the Middle Corridor reflects a deliberate effort to position itself as a central logistics and energy hub between East and West.
• Azerbaijan is strengthening its relationship with China while simultaneously maintaining its strategic ties with Europe.

Background Information

During the visit, President Aliyev and President Xi Jinping signed a joint declaration improving Azerbaijan-China relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership. This move merges over a decade of collaboration under the BRI and formalises cooperation in energy, infrastructure, digital economy, and regional connectivity. The two countries signed over 20 intergovernmental and interagency agreements, many of them focused on critical sectors such as renewable energy, legal cooperation, education, and intellectual property protection.

China continues to view Azerbaijan as a key node in the Middle Corridor, the trans-Caspian route linking China to Europe through Central Asia and the South Caucasus. The importance of this route has increased markedly because of the ongoing instability in Russia and the reduced viability of the Northern Corridor. Trade between the two countries reached $3.7 billion in 2023, with further growth expected because of expanding cooperation in logistics and energy. Azerbaijan has become China’s top trading partner in the South Caucasus.

Among the most significant developments were new energy agreements, particularly in the renewable sector. Chinese companies will co-develop the 100 MW Gobustan Solar Power Plant and participate in an ambitious 2 GW offshore wind project in the Caspian Sea. These initiatives establish Azerbaijan as both a fossil fuel exporter and a regional clean energy innovation hub.

Diplomatic relations between Azerbaijan and China began in 1992. Since then, pragmatic cooperation has marked bilateral ties, cantered on trade, infrastructure, and energy. China’s BRI, launched in 2013, found a natural partner in Azerbaijan because of its strategic location at the crossroads of Europe and Asia. Baku, seeking to diversify its energy exports and reduce dependency on traditional European and Turkish routes, embraced the initiative through its own infrastructure projects, such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway and the Alat Free Economic Zone.

This trajectory has accelerated in recent years. In July 2024, on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Astana, the two countries signed a strategic partnership declaration, setting the stage for this April’s comprehensive upgrade. The momentum reflects not only mutual economic interests but also a shared vision for multipolar global governance, particularly in increasing polarisation between Western and Eastern blocs.

Geopolitical Scenario

Azerbaijan’s foreign policy has traditionally revolved around strategic balancing, and this latest visit to Beijing exemplifies Baku’s ability to navigate competing interests. On the one hand, the Caucasian republic remains deeply integrated with European energy markets, providing vital gas supplies through the Southern Gas Corridor. On the other, its ties with China are now entering a qualitatively different phase, driven by infrastructure, technology, and investment.

This dual-track strategy serves several purposes. It ensures Azerbaijan is not overly dependent on any single geopolitical actor, granting it greater autonomy in shaping regional policies. It also allows Baku to exploit economic and political benefits from multiple partners, leveraging its geographic location and energy resources to enhance its international profile.

As Azerbaijan’s economic ties with China deepen, it may come under greater pressure to align with Beijing’s positions on regional and international issues. Increased engagement with China could raise concerns in Western countries, particularly if Chinese companies acquire influence over strategic infrastructure such as ports, railways, and energy assets.

Baku’s desire to become a major logistical hub in the Eurasian landmass means it must carefully manage its relationships not only with Europe and China but also with other regional players like Iran, Russia, and Turkey. These actors, each with their own stakes in the region, may interpret Azerbaijan’s growing partnership with China as a shift in geopolitical orientation, potentially complicating future alignments.

Conclusion

Azerbaijan’s burgeoning comprehensive strategic partnership with China presents medium- to long-term risks, primarily through increased economic dependence in key sectors like energy and infrastructure. This reliance could constrain Baku’s autonomy in foreign policy, necessitating alignment with Chinese interests that may conflict with Azerbaijan’s established partnerships with Western nations. A shift like this could reduce Azerbaijan’s influence in negotiations with Europe, increasing Western concerns about China’s growing presence in the South Caucasus.

Russia, Turkey, and Iran, who may view Azerbaijan’s ties with China as a geopolitical threat, complicate Baku’s ambition to become a key logistics centre in the Middle Corridor through their need to balance relations with the Caucasian republic. Increased competition risks destabilising Azerbaijan and making its strategic balancing act more difficult.

Although Azerbaijan’s relationship with China presents economic advantages, Baku needs a cautious foreign policy to avoid overreliance and maintain influence in the face of growing global polarisation.

Author: Matteo Meloni

*Cover image: Ilham Aliyev, the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, met with Xi Jinping, the President of the People’s Republic of China (Credits: Azertag)

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