Day: January 28, 2025
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– https://t.co/T8CxfQzy8o…— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) January 28, 2025
Trump Can Bring the End of Putin’s Rule https://t.co/zEn93pDJmO pic.twitter.com/9Lq0ZXM86Z
— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) January 28, 2025
President Trump’s administration directs widespread pause of federal loans and grants https://t.co/aPC8xPpLzM
— The Hill (@thehill) January 28, 2025
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Michael_Novakhov shared this story . |
President Donald Trump revealed on his first day that he may be closer to delivering on a campaign promise than skeptics believed. As we show in our new, original economic analysis, Trump has the levers to force Vladimir Putin to end the Russia-Ukraine war promptly if he dispenses with the Biden Administration’s tepid, inconsistent economic pressure.
On Trump’s first day in office, he publicly addressed his views on Putin’s invasion of Ukraine for the first time in weeks, during his Oval Office press conference. “I think Zelensky wants a peace deal, but I don’t know Putin wants a deal,” Trump said, “I think Russia is going to be in real trouble….I think Putin’s destroying Russia.”
Trump is right. As Russia falters on the battlefield, approaching 700,000 casualties, its reliance upon North Korean troops and Iranian drones, Putin has not advanced his military agenda and Putin’s war-fueled economy has drained the nation’s vitality across sectors. Putin has cut reinvestment in its industrial base and seized control of much private enterprise, cannibalizing its once mighty industrial strength. In short, he’s kept the furnace of Russia’s energy burning by tossing in the living room furniture.
Russia is in real trouble as its economy implodes, and Putin is destroying Russia. And even more importantly, the return of Trump could send Russia’s economy off the cliff, and Trump’s return could deal the death blow to the teetering Putin regime. Trump today said his sanctions had cut off Iran’s ability to finance the proxy terrorism of Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis which Biden’s muted sanctions enforcement allowed. Similarly, with proper sanction enforcement, the Russian economy will be circling the drain by Easter.
Trump Issues a Series of Presidential Actions on Day 1
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That Trump’s return could end Putin’s rule seemed unimaginable weeks ago. Many supporters of Ukraine openly feared that Trump might force a bad peace deal on Ukraine tantamount to surrender, amid Trump’s oft-declared intention to “end” the war by his first day in office. But just as Trump has shown a willingness to evolve on business issues once he learned the facts, it appears Trump has similarly, pivoted his position on Putin once he learned just how weak the Russian economy really is.
Simply put, the Russian economy is imploding—with Putin cannibalizing the productive economy to fund his war machine. If Putin loses the spigot of windfall oil revenues which has been propping him up the last three years, then the Putin regime will almost certainly collapse. Putin has already drawn down Russia’s rainy day funds by depleting its once-formidable foreign exchange reserves, and nobody is willing to fund Russian government deficits by buying unwanted Russian bonds. Meanwhile, the Russian Ruble is collapsing as a currency that even China is dumping, the Russian central bank has run out of firepower, and Putin cannot cut spending unless he defunds his own expensive war machine. Russia cannot make up for lost oil exports as it has already lost 90% of its erstwhile natural gas exports, thanks to Europe finally moving away from Russian piped gas reliance. The country brings very little to the global economy other than energy exports.
Oil revenues represent a potent choke point over the Russian economy, and Trump has grasped the strength of this leverage in a way the Biden Administration did not. The outlook for Russia’s oil sales is now very different, and Russia’s outright economic collapse appears far more likely now. With Trump’s pledges to bring down oil prices and increase US domestic oil production by 3 million barrels a day, the world will no longer need Russian oil production the same way, and Putin will be feeling the pain because he will be selling at or below breakeven prices.
According to Saudi Aramco, the breakeven for drilling Russian oil is a whopping $44 per barrel, the highest of any major oil producer and twice as much as the cost of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iran, and other major oil producers—thanks in part to the inaccessibility of major Russian oil fields deep in the Arctic.
So between his elevated breakeven cost of $44 per barrel to drill oil, and expenses which we estimate to be around $20-$30 per barrel to get that oil to market, Putin will be losing money when the price of oil falls below current levels. Even beyond any pain Putin suffers from the price of oil falling organically; if Trump imposes any additional sanctions and export restrictions on Russian oil companies, as Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent advocated for during his confirmation hearing, then Putin will be all but begging for relief as his economy implodes with export revenues throttled.
History reminds us that this playbook of economic pressure on Russia has worked successfully before. Cold War ended largely through the unexpected implosion of Russia’s economy—which many experts did not see coming, but a vulnerability which Ronald Reagan, a leader defined more by intuition than careful analysis of the issues, grasped. Now, Trump has an opportunity to puncture Putin’s propaganda balloon and suffocate Russia’s economy to the point of collapse, if he chooses to do so.
The opposition TV company Mtavari has reported that the channel has been turned off for all viewers based in Georgia’s regions and those watching abroad via satellite, adding that from February, most cable TV providers will stop broadcasting the channel.
Mtavari claimed the reason for the crisis was due to Director Gogi Kurdadze’s refusal to transfer money to the service providers, and that bills have been accumulating in the sales accounts for months.
‘[Kurdadze] does not allow these funds to be used for the benefit of the channel at all, and sends letters containing unfounded accusations and threats to our partner companies’, Mtavari’s statement read.
The statement also highlighted that Kurdadze had been appointed by Mtavari’s co-founder Zaza Okuashvili, who they claim has been ‘systematically following the path characteristic of the Russian regime and gradually closing the channel, which for five years firmly maintained the status of the country’s most influential critical media outlet’.
According to Mtavari, there has been no advertising on the channel for a month, and they lost all of their sponsors due to the expiration of the contract with the ‘sales house’. Their statement also claimed that Kurdadze, allegedly on the instructions of Okuashvili, has not been allowing for the renewal of contracts. Finally, they noted that the channel has stopped providing ratings indicators, and journalists, in most cases, are no longer able to conduct live broadcasts.
‘The actions of Zaza Okuashvili and the director managed by him, Gogi Kurdadze, represent an attempt to intentionally damage the company and shut down critical media outlets, which serves the goals of the [ruling] Georgian Dream and clearly contain signs of a criminal offense’, the statement read.
Okuashvili has not commented on the recent accusations.
The local Media Advocacy Coalition expressed concern over Mtavari’s statement, saying they see the ongoing developments around the channel as ‘a serious threat to the functioning of free media’.
‘Restricting the functioning of critical media poses a threat not only to the functioning of specific media outlets, but also directly harms the coverage of ongoing processes in the country and the public’s right to be informed about important events’, the coalition’s statement read.
They called on Okuashvili and Kurdadze to stop taking steps that are aimed at restricting and ultimately terminating the television network’s activities, instead of working to strengthen the company.
‘It is especially important that the rights of the media are protected during this critical period, including those of your television employees, who have repeatedly become objects of violence and attacks, and that the quality of public awareness and coverage are not reduced or coverage is limited’.
Rumours about the channel’s financial difficulties and its possible closure have been circulating for several months.
On 11 December 2024, Mtavari’s General Director Giorgi Gabunia announced that the station was facing closure, accusing Okuashvili of sabotaging the channel.
Georgian pro-opposition TV channel ‘faces closure’ amid internal conflict
Live on air, Mtavari’s director accused a major shareholder of sabotage, claiming that he was colluding with Georgian Dream founder Bidzina Ivanishvili.
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At an emergency briefing organised by Gabunia that month, he accused Okuashvili of deciding to ‘shut down’ the channel, a plan being executed, according to Gabunia, through the director, Kurdadze.
Gabunia stated that this was ‘exactly what Bidzina Ivanishvili needs today’, seemingly alluding to the antagonism of the Georgian billionaire and Georgian Dream founder, who has been widely described as the country’s informal ruler, towards independent media critical of the government.
In response to Gabunia’s allegations, Okuashvili accused Gabunia of having his own ties to Ivanishvili. He dismissed claims of his own collusion with the billionaire as ‘comical’, pointing out that he was engaged in ‘several international legal battles’ against him.
Okuashvili has been embroiled in several conflicts with Georgian Dream since 2018, most notably the Omega Tapes scandal.
The purported secret recordings, which were leaked publicly, allegedly captured conversations with a Georgian Dream official that revealed extortion attempts targeting Okuashvili on behalf of Ivanishvili.
Also in 2018, Okuashvili was accused of exploiting a group of Georgian journalists during a financial dispute with the government.
Secret audio recordings suggest racket in Georgian Government
A secret audio recording released on Friday suggests that former Georgian sports minister Levan Kipiani attempted to extort expensive cars for other ministers from Omega Group, a business group that owns local TV channel Iberia TV. The authenticity of the recording has not yet been verified, but…
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