Thea Lee, Deputy Undersecretary for the International Affairs Department of the U.S. Department of Labor, emphasized the importance of integrating labor priorities, including fair wages, worker protections, and union rights, into the global climate agenda during a recent press briefing at COP29, Azernews reports.
Day: November 15, 2024
Baku analysis of Trump’s regional policy
US president-elect Donald Trump’s key nominations has become a major topic of discussion worldwide, including in Azerbaijan.
Analysts at the South Caucasus Studies Center (CSSC) have assessed potential changes in U.S. policy toward the region based on these appointments.
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Calm before storm?
“There is relative calm in conflict zones as countries prepare for ‘new times.’ Processes are interconnected, and nations are calculating their moves in the context of other developments. By January 2025, when Trump’s inauguration completes the transfer of power in the U.S., countries will have made necessary adjustments.
Preparations are crucial as Trump’s appointees will likely be approved swiftly in Congress and the Senate, given the Republican majority in both chambers. The appointments reflect efforts to consolidate the Republican Party by balancing the interests of various factions while centralizing control under Trump. However, not all appointments are expected to proceed smoothly. For instance, the nomination of Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence may face scrutiny from both parties.
Future crises in Trump’s relationships with his appointees could lead to resignations.
Current priorities include the Russia-Ukraine war, China, the Middle East crisis, and relations with Europe. The administration’s initial actions are expected to be assertive, potentially creating momentum across multiple fronts by early spring.
Efforts are already underway to shift realities ‘on the ground,’ maximize progress in key areas, and prepare for changes early next year.”
Impact on South Caucasus
“Among Trump’s nominees are several politicians critical of Turkey. Marco Rubio, the nominee for Secretary of State, is known as a pro-Armenian politician, though his stance is also strongly anti-Russian. However, being pro-Armenian does not necessarily equate to supporting Pashinyan; the focus here is more on the Armenian diaspora.
U.S. interest in the region may initially remain low if the de facto peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia holds. The new administration’s approach will depend on its chosen criteria and priorities for engagement in the region. Possible focus areas include:
• Reducing Russia’s influence in the region: While the Biden administration prioritized this, Azerbaijan, which actively worked to limit Russia’s military presence, received little support. Instead, U.S. aid was directed toward Armenia, whose leadership in 2022 backed Putin’s plans to extend Russia’s military presence and maintained its CSTO membership without penalty. Pro-Armenian figures in the new administration may continue this trend but could impose conditions on Armenia to reduce its reliance on Russia, at least economically.
• The Iran issue: While the Trump administration may find room for dialogue with Russia, the same cannot be said for Iran. In Azerbaijan, Iran’s presence is minimal, limited to a transport project connecting Nakhchivan. Conversely, Iran’s influence in Armenia has grown, a fact largely ignored under Biden. It remains to be seen how the Trump administration will address this dynamic.
• Relations with the US and its allies: Under Trump, the region will be viewed through both U.S. and allied interests, with Israel’s position playing a significant role. Unlike Biden’s administration, which coordinated closely with Brussels, Trump’s allies in Europe—such as the UK and Hungary—will shape policy. Pragmatism in regional dealings is expected to increase, favoring Baku and Tbilisi.
Ultimately, U.S. policy toward the South Caucasus will depend on how initial actions on broader global issues unfold, shaping its stance on the region accordingly.”
Baku analysis of Trump’s regional policy
Abkhazia protests Russian agreement
On the morning of November 15, a mass protest erupted in Abkhazia as parliament prepared to discuss ratifying the Russia-Abkhazia investment agreement. The opposition and much of the public have strongly opposed the deal since its inception.
Critics label it as exploitative for Abkhazia, mockingly referring to it as “benefits for oligarchs.”
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What sparked protests over the agreement?
1. The agreement grants Russian investors an eight-year exemption from customs duties on imported construction materials and equipment, as well as from property and profit taxes.
2. The value-added tax for investors will be reduced to just 5%, half the standard rate.
3. The Abkhazian government is required to prioritize investors covered by this agreement, listed in a special registry, by granting them preferential access to energy resources and connections to infrastructure and utilities.
4. Investors are allowed to use land allocated by the Abkhazian government as collateral for bank loans. Consequently, if an investor defaults, the bank could claim the land.
Opponents of the agreement argue that it will deal a severe blow to local businesses, which cannot compete with Russian companies under such conditions. Moreover, they believe the agreement poses a threat to the security of the republic.
In response to the protests, the speaker decided to postpone the parliamentary session. However, the approximately 10,000 people gathered outside the parliament are demanding a more decisive approach: convene the session, vote against ratifying the agreement, and remove it entirely from the agenda.