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— Notes from Georgia/South Caucasus (Hälbig, Ralph) (@SouthCaucasus) November 6, 2024
Day: November 6, 2024
The recent parliamentary elections in Georgia were not merely flawed; they were a meticulously orchestrated assault on the country’s democracy, as if by a dozen daggers. This is the conclusion of a synthesis report that examines what we now know of the conduct of the elections on October 26.
Hans Gutbrod teaches at Ilia State University. He holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from the London School of Economics and has been working in the Caucasus region since 1999.
This summary synthesizes the available analysis, draws on credible direct reports, seeks to provide quantification wherever possible, adds independent statistical analysis, and includes an annotated bibliography with the main relevant texts. The full text of the report, in PDF format, is available HERE.
The report was initially commissioned by a donor with a long track record of working in this region. The report is informed by many years of working on Georgian elections in various capacities. Statistical experts contributed to this analysis.
The results announced by the Central Election Commission (CEC), putting the Georgian Dream ahead with 54% of the vote, defy all credible evidence. With this result, the Georgian Dream claims to have mobilized an additional 191,942 voters since the previous election in 2020, when it had 48% of the vote.
This supposed surge is starkly at odds with the waning popularity of the ruling party. The sentiment of exhaustion was best expressed by Bidzina Ivanishvili himself, the founder and honorary chair of the Georgian Dream party, in an interview a few days before the election, when he urged citizens to vote for GD, but also said:
“People have probably grown tired of Georgian Dream over these 12 years – it’s very difficult in democratic states to keep electing the same government. I myself have grown tired of hearing my own surname so often. People do not want to hear the same names over and over again, and you can understand why they feel that way.
All available research confirms that Bidzina Ivanishvili was right. The Georgian people were indeed fed up with the ruling party. Exit polls conducted by reputable international firms, multiple pre-election surveys, and even the Georgian Dream’s internal polling showed that the opposition parties were in the lead.
A Multi-Pronged Assault on Democracy
To achieve the result announced by the CEC, the Georgian Dream’s strategy relied on a multi-pronged approach, exploiting a range of tactics to manipulate the outcome. Unprecedented levels of vote-buying, with cash and vouchers being distributed to secure votes, were coupled with widespread intimidation of voters, opposition party representatives, and observers.
The intimidation, in particular, started months before the election and can be traced back to the passing of the so-called “law on the transparency of foreign influence.” It involved direct violence, threatening phone calls, and concerted vilification by the authorities. People outside Tbilisi were particularly vulnerable to such pressure.
The erosion of voter secrecy, a fundamental pillar of democratic elections, was another key element in this strategy. The use of semi-transparent ballots and electronic vote-counting devices in the majority of polling stations compromised the confidentiality of the vote, leaving voters vulnerable to coercion and manipulation. Two months before the election, the CEC removed critical safeguards against multiple voting. In this and other shortcomings, there are strong indications that the chairman of the CEC acted with intent.
Estimating the Extent of Bribery
While the exact scale of vote-buying is difficult to determine, a conservative estimate suggests that the Georgian Dream may have spent upwards of GEL 45 million to secure votes. This estimate is based on reported figures of payments to individual voters, the estimated number of unwilling Georgian Dream voters who were swayed by these bribes, and the overhead costs associated with such a large-scale operation. Though people try to hide bribery, as it remains, of course, illegal, observers detected vote buying throughout much of the country.
Matching Experiment: the Impact of Election Day Violations
Statistical analyses reveal a pattern of irregularities in voter turnout and vote shares for the ruling party. The research for this report also employed a sophisticated statistical technique known as “matching” to isolate the impact of specific election day violations on the final results. By comparing similar precincts with and without reported violations, this research can estimate the minimum number of votes that were likely affected by intimidation, violence, and breaches of voter secrecy. Among the striking findings from the matching experiment are:
- The significant impact of physical violence and intimidation: In precincts where observers reported these violations, the ruling party gained an average of 30 additional votes, while the four main opposition parties lost 41 votes. This suggests that Georgian Dream violence was highly effective in swaying the outcome.
- The substantial effect of compromised vote secrecy: In precincts where observers noted breaches of vote secrecy, the opposition lost an additional 53 votes on average. Given the widespread use of semi-transparent ballots for electronic vote-counting devices, this violation likely substantially impacted the overall results.
These two violations alone, next to the bribery and intimidation before the election day, could have shifted tens of thousands of votes in favor of the ruling party.
The overall findings, alongside many statistical anomalies, show that the official results do not reflect the will of the Georgian people.
As U.S. President Donald Trump is on his track to the White House for his second non-consecutive term, Georgian officials and politicians are reacting to his expected win and extending early congratulations.
“Congratulations on your election, Mr. President Donald Trump. A strong U.S. – our strategic partner and friend of 33 years – is needed now more than ever to support Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic integration, bolster regional security and stability, and safeguard our freedom and independence,” Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili wrote on X.
Ruling Party
The ruling Georgian Dream party was confident during the pre-election campaign that Donald Trump would win, claiming that the Republican takeover would lead to a reset in U.S.-Georgian relations.
The first to react was the Georgian Dream Executive Secretary, Mamuka Mdinaradze, who said at the briefing, “We are very happy that in the United States of America, too, peace and traditional values are winning.”
Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze‘s congratulations spoke of the restart of U.S.-Georgian relations. “Congratulations to President Donald Trump on His decisive victory in the election. I am confident that President Trump’s leadership will promote peace globally and in our region as well as ensure restart in U.S.-Georgia relations,” he wrote on X.
Opposition
Opposition leaders also extend their congratulations to President Donald Trump.
Ex-PM Giorgi Gakharia, the leader of the Gakharia – For Georgia part, wrote on X: “Congratulations to President Donald Trump on winning the elections. In these challenging times, Georgia and the entire international community needs strong US leadership in safeguarding freedom and democracy, ensuring peace and security and promoting rules-based international order. I’m confident that with the help of the US Georgia restores its path to democracy and Euro-Atlantic integration, as well as our bilateral strategic relations.”
More to follow...
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Prosecutor destroys election fraud evidence
The opposition For Georgia party has stated that the court denied its request for the urgent preservation of data on Central Election Commission (CEC) servers and in voting machines
The party claims that the prosecutor’s office, as part of a fake investigation, is attempting to seize verification devices, warning that crucial evidence of the October 26 parliamentary election fraud could be destroyed.
For Georgia party’s statement
“As expected, the prosecutor’s office, along with the CEC, was involved in falsifying the lists and other evidence. The court did not uphold our urgent request to preserve data on the CEC servers and voting machines, while the prosecutor’s office attempts to seize verification devices as part of a bogus investigation.
This indicates a risk of crucial evidence being destroyed, which undermines any objective investigation or publication of genuine lists—an act that itself constitutes a criminal offense.
As we have said from the beginning, the verification devices and the information they contain could serve as primary evidence of fraud. The prosecutor’s office is thus trying to gain control within this fake investigation and is effectively holding the evidence and the entire truth-finding process hostage.
The CEC has been concealing information for nearly 10 days, has not specified the data retention period, and, together with the prosecutor’s office, is facilitating the destruction of evidence.
The evidence of this is as follows:
- On October 29, we requested the publication of the lists;
- On October 30, the prosecutor’s office initiated a bogus investigation based on a CEC appeal;
- On November 1, we filed a court request to preserve evidence;
- On November 1, the CEC chair hinted on Imedi TV at handing over the data to the prosecutor’s office.
On November 1, the prosecutor’s office officially approached the CEC, indicating that the CEC and the prosecutor’s office acted in coordination with Georgian Dream,” the statement concluded.
Prosecutor destroys election fraud evidence
