Day: November 4, 2024
Armenia-US relations’ future
Authorities in Armenia are ready to develop relations with the United States, regardless of who is elected president—the Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, or the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, vice speaker of the Armenian parliament, Ruben Rubinyan, said on the eve of the 5 November U.S. presidential election.
“We are ready in any case to develop Armenia-US relations. The relationship between Armenia and the United States is not between leaders but between countries,” Rubinyan was quoted as saying.
According to political scientist Robert Gevondyan, it is clear that if Trump comes to power, it will not only be a change of a leader, but rather a change in policy, institutional approaches, and concepts.
On a local television broadcast, Gevondyan stated that it would be more advantageous for Yerevan if the Democrats remained in power, but Armenian officials cannot openly admit it.
“I view the statements from the ruling team as preparation for a possible unfavorable scenario. These are statements that align with the norms of political and diplomatic ethics, so that in the event Trump comes to power, they can work with his team,” he speculated.
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Political commentator Robert Gevondyan
“It would be the most favorable outcome for Armenia if the Democratic Party continues to govern in the U.S.
This is due to Armenia’s current position in the region. At present, the involvement of as many actors as possible increases the chances of advancing its [Armenia’s] interests.
One of these actors is the U.S., which, since September 2022, has been involved to some degree in the processes unfolding in our region. I mean preventing further escalation, halting Azerbaijani aggression against the sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia, and directly participating in events following it. Let’s not forget that several rounds of Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations also took place in the U.S., and certain agreements were reached there.
If the U.S. maintains this stance, Armenia will have more opportunities to pursue its interests. However, if the U.S. chooses a different path, focusing solely on economic enrichment and working only in regions where it can make substantial profits, then our region will be relegated not even to the second but perhaps to the tenth priority.
In this case, the U.S. will be far less involved in resolving Armenia’s relations with other countries in the region. This will create a vacuum that other forces, particularly Russia and Turkey, will fill. They will negotiate among themselves at Armenia’s expense, as was the case in 2020.
Former President Donald Trump represents the economic elite, whose approach is that different regions have varying financial potentials, and it’s clear that this is true.
For example, Saudi Arabia and Middle Eastern countries are wealthy, with significant financial flows, and the maritime route from China to Europe holds great potential, while the South Caucasus currently lacks such potential.
Some may argue that the “Middle Corridor” could bring substantial flows, but it has yet to materialize. Moreover, the “Middle Corridor” might enrich China, a U.S. competitor, which is why it isn’t in the U.S.’s interest for this corridor to function and facilitate substantial flows between China and Europe.
On the other hand, there is the India-Europe route, part of which is the “North-South” highway. This route can bypass Armenia through Azerbaijan, Georgia and other Middle Eastern routes, including Turkey.
In short, from a financial enrichment perspective, the South Caucasus is not as attractive as other regions.
The current interest in Armenia is driven by the Biden administration’s view of the U.S. as a superpower. According to this logic, it [the U.S] should have a presence in all regions worldwide and all issues should be addressed with consideration of the U.S. interests. It’s not surprising that in 2021, upon assuming the presidency, Biden declared that the U.S. is back, meaning that it would be present globally.
If there is a change in administration and Trump comes to power, interest in Armenia may decrease to the extent that the opposite approach might emerge: the prevention of peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the unblocking of routes so that China does not benefit [from it]. This is a possible scenario.
Even if Trump doesn’t win and Harris does, the administration will change to some extent. Democrats would remain [in power], but new people with different priorities would come. The Armenian authorities have significant work ahead. They must demonstrate to these individuals with new approaches that what has been done so far is insufficient and that more intense efforts can be made.
In other words, the U.S. could take a much more active role. This could extend beyond Azerbaijan and Turkey to include Iran and Georgia. I am referring to the “Crossroads of Peace” project.
These directions could work not only through the route which Azerbaijan calls the “Zangezur Corridor,” that both Azerbaijan and Turkey are eager to secure, but also through many other routes. For example, the “Crossroads of Peace” project could operate in four directions, each offering substantial economic benefits to Armenia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan.
In this regard, Armenia will need to work intensively with the new U.S. administration if it continues Biden’s traditions. However, if a Trump administration comes to power, Armenia will have little control over the situation.
Armenia-US relations’ future
Bilateral Talks On Regional Unblocking Between Armenia, Azerbaijan ‘Possible’ Ազատություն Ռադիոկայան
