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Day: October 2, 2024
With a month to go before the vote, local watchdog organizations have been targeted, as anyone who expresses their political stance may be labeled a “political actor with declared electoral objectives,” biased. Meanwhile, the ruling party complains of “foreign interference” from the West, while the opposition, fragmented into four parties, is trying to unite under a European umbrella.
The following covers election-related updates spanning September 24-30:
Election Environment:
Anti-Corruption Bureau targets CSOs: On September 24, the head of the Anti-Corruption Bureau, Razhden Kuprashvili, qualified two CSOs, Transparency International – Georgia and Vote for Europe, as “political actors with declared electoral objectives” for their voter mobilization activities and demanded financial statements from them. The local CSOs warned that amid the silence on the Foreign Agents Law, which the authorities have not yet implemented in practice, the Anti-Corruption Bureau would be used to silence civil society, and in particular the watchdog organizations, their freedom of opinion and expression. Shortly thereafter, on October 1, the government issued a statement saying that it fully agreed with the Anti-Corruption Bureau’s decision to designate these organizations as “political actors with declared electoral objectives,” but that it considered it “feasible” to remove this very status and urged the Bureau to do so “to avoid external manipulation.” The government’s latest move came a day after TI-Georgia said it would not be able to observe election day under its name.
GD Hits Election Observers’ Credibility Over Claims On Political Bias: In an effort to question the impartiality of local observers, GD MP Givi Mikanadze presented a tabular “study” that labels 26 out of 49 local observers registered with the CEC as “not neutral.” He claimed that these organizations are either “affiliated with the opposition” or have a “bias” in favor of the opposition. Mikanadze cited various factors as “evidence” of the alleged “non-neutrality” of local election observers, including their leaders’ public statements and political donations, and even photographs showing members of these monitoring organizations with opposition figures.
His briefing was followed by other GD members who stretched his points and hit the individual CSOs: “For instance, Soros Foundation’s Transparency International’s, GYLA’s or ISFED’s message boxes, narratives, and sequencing of topics are fully synchronized with the opposition political parties, such as United National Movement (UNM), Lelo, or Ahali and their affiliates,” Shalva Papuashvili, the Speaker of the Parliament, wrote in his usually lengthy tweet, equating these “quasi-civil society organizations” with “political activists groups” and claiming that their pre-election process and election day judgments cannot be free of political influence and bias.
GD Complains About Foreigners (Western Leaders) Interfering in Elections: Parliament Speaker Shalva Papuashvili complained about “foreign propaganda” – the critical “statements, interviews, TV appearances, articles, and visits to Georgia” by Western leaders – saying that these actions serve the opposition’s campaign agenda and thus constitute interference in the country’s elections. He said that by making statements critical of the government, which then are amplified by opposition-leaning media, Western leaders are “participating in the anti-GD campaign.” He therefore called on them to respect the principle of non-interference. Papuashvili listed the statements of certain leaders, including those of the U.S. and the EU, about which the GD had prepared a special so-called report entitled “Foreign Interference in the Electoral Process.”
In general, the GD leadership sees any critical statement of action by Western leaders as a “lifeline” for the opposition. This was even the case when President Joe Biden disinvited PM Irakli Kobakhidze from the traditional UNGA reception.
Polls Abroad Set, but Sparse: The Central Election Commission said there will be 60 election precincts in 42 foreign countries for the October vote, based on data provided by the Georgian MFA on the number of registered voters abroad. According to the law, an electoral precinct can be established for 50 to 3000 voters registered with consular services. The opposition has long pressed the MFA and the CEC to streamline voting rights for Georgian emigrants by opening more precincts in cities where at least 50 Georgian citizens live, if their request so, as it may be difficult for them to travel long distances to vote. However, this has been in vain. According to unofficial estimates, there could be as many as one million Georgian citizens living abroad, a significant number of whom are illegal migrants who fear deportation if they register at consulates and then vote.
(Moreover) Emigrants Face Difficulties in Registering with Consulates: In addition to the issue of the number of polling stations opened abroad, many emigrants reported that their names had been removed from the voter list, even though they were registered on the consular registry, and that they only learned of the problem after checking into the system. Among them was the Georgian President’s daughter, Ketevan Gorjestani, who will now be able to vote in Paris, but only after the news broke. The deadline for registration at consulates is October 7. Opposition parties and the President are urging emigrants to check the system often and make sure they are on the voter list.
Pro-Government Media Refuses Airing Opposition Platform’s Ad: According to Aleko Elisashvili, leader of the Citizens party and one of the leaders of the Strong Georgia coalition, the pro-government Imedi channel refused to air Strong Georgia’s campaign ad, which shows the ruling party in a negative context. However, the Communications Commission (ComCom), which earlier fined the opposition channels for not airing the ruling Georgian Dream party’s ad, has so far remained silent.
The ComCom informed Civil.ge that no appeal had been filed against Imedi, adding that an appeal is a mandatory procedure for the examination of the case.
PACE Delegation Makes Pre-election Visit to Georgia: On September 23-24, a six-member delegation of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) made a pre-election visit to Georgia and met with all stakeholders to assess the pre-election atmosphere. After the visit, the delegation stated with concern that “polarization of the political landscape has reached unprecedented levels, turning the forthcoming elections into a de facto referendum on Georgia’s trajectory and foreign alignment.”
President (had to) Sign Amnesty Law: On September 27, President Salome Zurabishvili signed into law the GD-passed “Amnesty Bill,” saying that while the legislation granting clemency to prisoners is in itself a “humanitarian act,” passing it just before the elections is an “indirect voter bribery.”
Two GD Ministers Quit: Two GD ministers – Tea Tsulukiani of the Ministry of Culture and Giorgi Amilakhvari of the Ministry of Education – have resigned. While Tsulukiani’s resignation was ostensibly due to her standing as an MP candidate, Amilakhvari returned to the private sector. According to Parliamentary Majority Leader Mamuka Mdinaradze, discussions are underway about government positions, including with those who were not on the party ticket.
Ex-President Giorgi Margvelashvili Joins Opposition Coalition: On September 25, the fourth President of Georgia, Giorgi Margvelashvili, joined the opposition platform Strong Georgia during its event in the town of Gori. Margvelashvili is not in Strong Georgia’s parliamentary ticket.
Edison Research Polls: The opposition-leaning Formula TV has published another poll by Edison Research, which it sponsors. The results, based on interviews conducted between September 10 and 22, indicate that if the elections were held today, the following parties would be above the 5% threshold:
- Georgian Dream – 32%;
- Unity-UNM (UNM, Strategy Aghmashenebeli and European Georgia) – 20%;
- Coalition for Changes (Ahali, Girchi-More Freedom, Droa) – 11.9%;
- Gakharia – For Georgia – 11.9%;
- Strong Georgia (Lelo, For People, Freedom Square, Citizens) – 9.9%;
- Labor Party – 5%
Campaign Trail
All Party / Platform Tickets Unveiled: The deadline for submitting party lists to the CEC expired on September 26, and a total of 19 political subjects submitted their lists. Almost at the top of each central list is the leader/chairman of that party/coalition: Bidzina Ivanishvili heads the list of GD’s 170 candidates for the 150-seat parliament. UNM’s Tina Bokuchava and Strategy Agmashenebeli’s Giorgi Vashadze lead the Unity-UNM list in first and second place, respectively. Giorgi Gakharia tops his For Georgia, and number one of the Lelo-led Strong Georgia is Mamuka Khazaradze. Only the Coalition for Change’s list is led by a non-partisan individual – Nana Malashkhia – the iconic “Woman with the EU Flag.”
GD Brutally Campaigns Peace: In a flagrant move to manipulate with fears of war, the ruling party’s new banners appeared in the city, showing images of war-torn Ukraine on one side and the “peace” the GD is offering Georgians on the other. GD’s central campaign pillar is to frame the elections as a choice between war and peace, attributing the former to the opposition and the latter to itself. “The comparison between war and peace is essential for society to make the right choice, because what these pictures depict is the very thing we have avoided at the cost of a great struggle,” PM Kobakhidze said.
GD Government Honors Georgian UFC Champions with Cash: Upon Merab Dvalishvili‘s return home after winning the UFC championship, which turned into another nationwide celebration, the Georgian government announced on September 30 that it would award him and another Georgian UFC champion, Ilia Topuria, GEL one million (about USD 368,000) each. Merab Dvalishvili said that he will donate all the money to charity. In the run-up to the elections, the government has been actively rewarding the nation’s beloved football players and Olympic and Paralympic athletes with cash prizes, as many authoritarian leaders around the world often do to wash away their misdeeds.
Almost all opposition parties and platforms promise leftist social reforms. Regional visits and rallies also continue.
Unity-UNM’s promises include: the cancellation of pension loans from December 1; the subsidization of “necessary medicines” for pensioners; the increase of pensions to 1000 GEL. The platform also proposed a caring narcopolitics focused on rehabilitation instead of punishment.
A visit to the eastern region of Kakheti was reported last week. Another, special meeting was also held with the participation of several leaders of the platform to address the public’s questions about the Unity-UNM’s election promises and plans.
Strong Georgia‘s promises focus on social reforms, including the GEL 1000 pension, 200,000 new jobs, paid internship programs for students, etc. The coalition also aims to fight against the gambling industry. According to one of its leaders, Ana Dolidze, the Strong Georgia plans to increase taxes on casinos, online casinos and slot clubs by up to 25% in order to increase government revenue and redistribute the budget funds to implement other social reforms.
The coalition leaders toured several villages in the Samegrelo region of western Georgia. On September 29, the party held a rally in Rustavi, a city near the capital Tbilisi. On September 30, the coalition members visited Kazbegi, a town in the high mountains. Several members also met with local people in the coastal town of Kobuleti.
Gakharia – For Georgia’s election program includes promises to raise the minimum wage to GEL 950, increase pensions by GEL 200 in the first year with future increases, extend access to gas, water, and high-speed Internet to all villages, build new student dormitories, add 15 metro stations in Tbilisi, implement a caring drug policy, etc. The party also pledges to strengthen laws against elite corruption, free the state sector from party influence, and prioritize EU reforms to facilitate Georgia’s integration into the European Union.
Meanwhile, Gakharia Presses Ivanishvili to Elaborate on his Promise to Restore Territorial Integrity: Ex-Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia, leader of the opposition For Georgia party, pressed Bidzina Ivanishvili from the briefing to elaborate on his cryptic promise to restore territorial integrity, asserting that Ivanishvili is lying, “which could ultimately destroy the real opportunity to restore Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
Last week, a regional meeting was held in the town of Bolnisi in the Kveto Kartli region.
Coalition for Change held meetings in the largely ethnic minority region of Kvemo Kartli, in the towns of Marneuli and Tsalka. The Coalition has a member organization, Activists for Future, a movement of activists from Georgia’s ethnic minority groups. Traditionally, the regions populated by ethnic minorities are mostly pro-GD voters.
…And Adds New Offices Abroad: According to the Coalition, its supporters have opened offices around the world to assist Georgian emigrants with election-related procedures, including consular registration. In particular, the new offices have been opened in New York, Paris, Brussels, Berlin and Warsaw.
Also Read:
- 24/09/2024 – Campaign Beat: September 17-23
Armenia-Iran cooperation
A new international Iranian trade center has opened in Yerevan. At the opening ceremony, Iran’s Minister of Industry and Trade, Seyed Mohammad Atabak, stated that this is the largest such center in the world. Armenia’s Minister of Economy, Gevorg Papoyan, expressed hope that an Armenian trade center will soon open in Tehran.
Both ministers emphasized that the leaders of Armenia and Iran see potential and expect to increase trade to $3 billion. In this regard, Atabak expressed readiness to “make efforts to achieve this goal.” Papoyan added that to reach such an “ambitious goal, we must expand the range of products and improve logistical infrastructure.”
According to Armenia’s Statistical Committee, trade between Armenia and Iran in 2023 amounted to approximately $700 million. Exports accounted for about $100 million, with imports at $600 million.
For Armenia, trade relations with Iran are extremely important, as the other two neighboring countries—Turkey and Azerbaijan—closed their borders in the 1990s. Only the borders with Iran and Georgia remain open for Armenia.
Economist Armen Ktoyan believes that not only is Iran crucial to Armenia, but Armenia is also an important market for Iran. According to him, there is significant untapped potential in economic relations, especially in the energy sector.
“Iran has enormous resources, but its export markets are limited. So Armenia could become a promising outlet. Currently, Iran supplies one-sixth of our gas consumption. Meanwhile, the same Iranian pipeline could deliver five times more gas to Armenia,” Armen Ktoyan told JAMnews.
“Armenia – a gateway to Eurasian markets”
According to Iran’s Minister of Industry and Trade, the Iranian trade center in Armenia could open a new chapter in relations between the two countries and promote further economic cooperation. He also said that one of the Iranian government’s priorities is to develop trade and economic relations with neighboring countries, including Armenia:
“The level of political and economic relations between our countries allows us to view Armenia as a gateway to Eurasian economic markets. Iran, with its high-tech industry, knowledge-intensive products, geographical location, and access to maritime and rail transport, can contribute to the development of Armenia’s economy.”
“Armenia ready to become a transit link between the EAEU and Iran”
As Minister of Economy Gevorg Papoyan notes, Armenia is the only member country of the EAEU that shares a land border with Iran:
“This geographical and strategic advantage allows Armenia to play a key role not only in bilateral relations with Iran but also in ensuring the economic integration of Iran and the countries within the EAEU.”
The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is an international organization for economic integration. Under Russia’s leadership, the union includes Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. Armenia became a full member of the EAEU in January 2015.
Papoyan emphasizes that at a time when global trade is grappling with challenges—from geopolitical tensions to logistical disruptions—Armenia could become a unique hub that deepens ties within the Eurasian space. He added that the signing of a free trade agreement between Iran and the EAEU was a significant event, providing Yerevan with an opportunity to expand its export markets.
The Armenian minister affirmed that developing economic relations with Iran is a key element of Armenia’s economic policy.
He believes that strengthening Armenian-Iranian economic ties will contribute to the stable development not only of Armenia and Iran, but also of other countries in the region:
“Under our government’s ‘Crossroads of the World’ initiative, Armenia is ready to become a key transit link between the Eurasian Union and Iran, as well as between the West and the East.”
“Iran supports Armenia’s activities in the port of Chabahar”
Papoyan explains that under the “Crossroads of the World” project, Armenia intends to become a link that swiftly and reliably connects the Indian Ocean with the Black Sea:
“One of the key elements of this strategic project will be the opening of an Armenian representative office in the Iranian port of Chabahar. This will strengthen our trade ties not only with Iran but also with India. The route through Armenian territory will be crucial not only for Armenia but also for India, which is seeking to diversify its supply chains.”
Goods will be shipped from Mumbai in India to the port of Chabahar, then transported through Armenia to Georgian ports, and from there to Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, and other EU countries. This route will reduce logistics costs by 25 percent and significantly shorten delivery times—from 40 days to approximately 25 days.
Iran’s minister, Seyed Mohammad Atabak, stated that Tehran fully supports Yerevan on this issue:
“Moreover, the infrastructure of the Port of Chabahar is already ready. All EAEU countries will be able to participate and have representatives in this port.”
Commentary
According to economist Armen Ktoyan, Armenia and Iran could achieve a trade turnover of $3 billion in the long term. But this depends on several factors:
- Will the share of energy resources increase?
- Will the scope of the “Gas for Electricity” program expand? (Under this program, Iran provides gas in exchange for electricity from Armenia).
- Will Armenia be able to import more gas from Iran, receiving sufficient to match the pipeline’s capacity?
- Can Armenia, as a transit country, utilize certain opportunities, such as implementing preferential conditions provided by the Meghri Free Economic Zone?
In 2017, Armenia’s government established a free economic zone in the border area with Iran, in the city of Meghri, Syunik Province. This zone was created to address socio-economic issues in the region, attract foreign investment to Armenia, and strengthen economic ties with Iran.
The economist warns that there is a significant trade imbalance with Iran, which poses a challenge for Armenia’s economy, particularly in terms of import and export figures.
“The issue is not just how much we increase trade turnover, but whether this increase will come solely from imports. The key question is whether we can proportionally or gradually increase exports and produce goods that will be attractive to the Iranian market,” he explains.
Ktoyan notes that entering the Iranian market will require a complex and long-term effort from Armenia. First, a study should be conducted to determine which products might be in demand in Iran, and only then should concrete steps be taken:
“We need to modernize our economy, improve the processing industry, increase efficiency, and try to implement innovative solutions. This will allow us to reduce production costs and make our goods more competitive in regional markets, including Iran.”
He emphasizes that logistics also play a critical role in trade efficiency. The road connecting Iran and Armenia has limited capacity, challenging terrain, and is further complicated by adverse weather conditions. On top of that, it is expensive.
As a solution, Ktoyan suggests considering an alternative: the construction of the “North-South” highway.
The “North-South” highway is Armenia’s largest transport project since gaining independence. The road is intended to connect the northern part of the country with the south. In the north, it will link Armenia to Georgia, providing access to the Black Sea and European countries. In the south, the highway will connect Armenia with Iran. Construction began in 2012, but only a small section has been completed so far.
“The ‘North-South’ highway will improve the efficiency of the route, shorten travel distances, make them safer, and reduce costs. Interestingly, Iran has expressed willingness to finance certain sections of this road. Another alternative is the unblocking of regional transport rotes, but this is more of a geopolitical issue. It’s hard to predict what the outcome will be,” the expert said.
Ktoyan believes that Armenia could indeed become a transit link between Iran and the EAEU countries. However, he points out a significant problem—the lack of a direct land border with Russia:
“From this perspective, connecting Iran with the EAEU or Russia via the Caspian Sea or through the territories of Central Asian states could be more advantageous from a logistical standpoint.”
Commenting on the creation of an Armenian representative office in Iran’s Chabahar port, the expert noted that this would facilitate access to the Persian Gulf:
“This is a logistical hub that could significantly reduce organizational costs and save time. There is definite potential here. However, the weak link on our side is, once again, the roads in Syunik, their capacity, and the challenging terrain.”
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Armenia-Iran cooperation
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The Daily Beat: 1 October
Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze called on the Anti-Corruption Bureau to reverse its decision to declare Transparency International Georgia as an organization with “declared election objectives,” a day after the watchdog announced it couldn’t observe October elections under its name. The Prime Minister said such legal status for CSOs will only serve as an incentive for “external manipulation.”
Before PM Kobakhidze’s announcement, PACE observers and the head of the observer mission expressed “deep concern” that local watchdog Transparency International Georgia has been forced to end its election monitoring after the Anti-Corruption Bureau declared the organization and its Executive Director, Eka Gigauri, as entities with declared election objectives. In a statement, PACE monitors urged the authorities to safeguard the legitimacy of the elections and ensure that CSOs can observe these elections without hindrance.
On October 1, the Honorary Chair and founder of the ruling Georgian Dream party, Bidzina Ivanishvili, published his letter commemorating the 12th anniversary of GD’s coming to power in Georgia in 2012. In his letter, he called the day “the day of the return of freedom,” “the unity of the Georgian people,” “the most important victory in the history of independent Georgia,” and “the day when a Georgian man restored his honor.”
In another lengthy letter, published later in the day and in response to the Facebook card shared by the U.S. Embassy in Tbilisi, the Georgian Dream leader, Bidzina Ivanishvili, denied he intended to target either the U.S. or the EU when talking about the “global war party” during his party’s campaign. He made references to U.S. conspiracy theories such as “deep state” and warned the U.S. of the potential “reputational damage” if they keep supporting the opposition.
In a congratulatory message on the 12th anniversary of GD’s coming to power, Tbilisi Mayor and GD General Secretary Kakha Kaladze underscored Bidzina Ivanishvili’s role in uniting people and defeating externally-backed Saakashvili’s bloody regime. “The status of the beacon of democracy was, so to speak, shoved down the throat of the population of our country by external actors, but what was really behind it, how much evil, how much hatred, and what a bloody regime, the public knows very well,” Kaladze said.
From October 22 to 24, the BRICS summit will convene in Kazan, marking the first meeting of the bloc in its newly expanded configuration. This historic gathering has sparked global speculation about further enlargement of the group. With Azerbaijan and Turkiye having recently applied for BRICS membership, international attention has turned toward this significant global format.