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Audio Review - South Caucasus News

NATO Washington Declaration Omits Reference to Georgia’s Membership Path


For the first time since the 2008 Bucharest Summit Decision, the NATO Washington Summit Declaration, adopted by the heads of state of the allied countries on July 11, fails to reiterate the formula that “Georgia will become a member of the Alliance with the Membership Action Plan as an integral part of the process.”

This follows the dramatic deterioration of relations with Georgia’s Western partners during the past two years. The NATO officials have voiced their concerns about Georgia’s “stalled reforms” since 2022 and urged Georgia to be “ready for the decisive moment” in 2023.

The Washington Summit Declaration mentions Georgia once, in paragrapgh 17, where it issues a “call on Russia to withdraw all of its forces from the Republic of Moldova and Georgia, stationed there without their consent.”

Georgia is not mentioned in the paragraph 28, which is dedicated to partner countries and mentions Moldova, as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina. The mention is absent also from the article related to Black Sea region (article 31).

The NATO Washington Summit adopted series of concrete decisions for providing financial, logistical, training and equipment support to Ukraine. The Declaration speaks about “irreversible path” of Ukraine “to full Euro-Atlantic integration.”

Read also:


Categories
South Caucasus News

NATO Washington Declaration Omits Reference to Georgia’s Membership Path


For the first time since the 2008 Bucharest Summit Decision, the NATO Washington Summit Declaration, adopted by the heads of state of the allied countries on July 11, fails to reiterate the formula that “Georgia will become a member of the Alliance with the Membership Action Plan as an integral part of the process.”

This follows the dramatic deterioration of relations with Georgia’s Western partners during the past two years. The NATO officials have voiced their concerns about Georgia’s “stalled reforms” since 2022 and urged Georgia to be “ready for the decisive moment” in 2023.

The Washington Summit Declaration mentions Georgia once, in paragrapgh 17, where it issues a “call on Russia to withdraw all of its forces from the Republic of Moldova and Georgia, stationed there without their consent.”

Georgia is not mentioned in the paragraph 28, which is dedicated to partner countries and mentions Moldova, as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina. The mention is absent also from the article related to Black Sea region (article 31).

The NATO Washington Summit adopted series of concrete decisions for providing financial, logistical, training and equipment support to Ukraine. The Declaration speaks about “irreversible path” of Ukraine “to full Euro-Atlantic integration.”

Read also:


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Audio Review - South Caucasus News

Israel cites aid backlog in Gaza; UN says: ‘We’re doing what we can’


UNITED NATIONS — A backlog of 1,150 truckloads of humanitarian aid is waiting to be collected from the Palestinian side of the Kerem Shalom crossing in the southern Gaza Strip, Israel said on Wednesday, prompting the United Nations to say: “We’re doing what we can.”

COGAT, an Israeli Defense Ministry agency tasked with coordinating aid deliveries into Palestinian territories, said another 50 aid trucks are also awaiting collecting from the Palestinian side of the Erez crossing in northern Gaza.

The U.N. said it is struggling to distribute aid within the enclave of 2.3 million people as the war between Israel and Palestinian militants Hamas enters its 10th month and law and order has broken down.

“Yes, the aid is being dropped off. But on the other side of that, you have utter lawlessness, plus you have continuing conflict,” said U.N. spokesperson Stephane Dujarric. “We are continuing to do our best to get that to those people who need it. Our colleagues in Gaza are not sitting on their hands.”

He said that the U.N. trucks that manage to pick up aid “are doing it often at great cost, because they are being either looted or attacked by criminal elements,” adding that, “Some aid is getting through, but very little.”

Obstacles to aid delivery

The U.N. has has long complained of dangers and obstacles to getting aid into Gaza — Israel inspects and approves all aid trucks — and distributing it within the enclave, where a global hunger monitor last month said there is a high risk of famine.

The top U.N. aid official for the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Muhannad Hadi, briefed U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Wednesday — a day after visiting Gaza — Dujarric said. Hadi entered and exited through the Kerem Shalom crossing.

“He saw groups of men with sticks waiting for trucks to leave the Kerem Shalom crossing into Gaza. All the trucks that he passed were badly damaged, with broken windshields, mirrors and hoods,” Dujarric told reporters.

Hadi also saw bags of fortified flour from the World Food Program (WFP) and the U.N. Palestinian refugee agency UNRWA scattered alongside the road from Kerem Shalom into Gaza, Dujarric said.

Military action limits distribution

In northern Gaza, the WFP said military activity was limiting its operations. Israeli forces continued to press their offensive in north and central Gaza on Wednesday, dropping leaflets urging the evacuation of Gaza City.

WFP has not delivered any food from the West Erez crossing for a couple of days, said WFP spokesperson Shaza Moghraby.

“Distribution sites have been evacuated and shut down, terrified people are being displaced again, and every time this happens, it makes it more difficult for us to reach them. So, there is a major impact on our operations,” she said.


Categories
South Caucasus News

Israel cites aid backlog in Gaza; UN says: ‘We’re doing what we can’


UNITED NATIONS — A backlog of 1,150 truckloads of humanitarian aid is waiting to be collected from the Palestinian side of the Kerem Shalom crossing in the southern Gaza Strip, Israel said on Wednesday, prompting the United Nations to say: “We’re doing what we can.”

COGAT, an Israeli Defense Ministry agency tasked with coordinating aid deliveries into Palestinian territories, said another 50 aid trucks are also awaiting collecting from the Palestinian side of the Erez crossing in northern Gaza.

The U.N. said it is struggling to distribute aid within the enclave of 2.3 million people as the war between Israel and Palestinian militants Hamas enters its 10th month and law and order has broken down.

“Yes, the aid is being dropped off. But on the other side of that, you have utter lawlessness, plus you have continuing conflict,” said U.N. spokesperson Stephane Dujarric. “We are continuing to do our best to get that to those people who need it. Our colleagues in Gaza are not sitting on their hands.”

He said that the U.N. trucks that manage to pick up aid “are doing it often at great cost, because they are being either looted or attacked by criminal elements,” adding that, “Some aid is getting through, but very little.”

Obstacles to aid delivery

The U.N. has has long complained of dangers and obstacles to getting aid into Gaza — Israel inspects and approves all aid trucks — and distributing it within the enclave, where a global hunger monitor last month said there is a high risk of famine.

The top U.N. aid official for the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Muhannad Hadi, briefed U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Wednesday — a day after visiting Gaza — Dujarric said. Hadi entered and exited through the Kerem Shalom crossing.

“He saw groups of men with sticks waiting for trucks to leave the Kerem Shalom crossing into Gaza. All the trucks that he passed were badly damaged, with broken windshields, mirrors and hoods,” Dujarric told reporters.

Hadi also saw bags of fortified flour from the World Food Program (WFP) and the U.N. Palestinian refugee agency UNRWA scattered alongside the road from Kerem Shalom into Gaza, Dujarric said.

Military action limits distribution

In northern Gaza, the WFP said military activity was limiting its operations. Israeli forces continued to press their offensive in north and central Gaza on Wednesday, dropping leaflets urging the evacuation of Gaza City.

WFP has not delivered any food from the West Erez crossing for a couple of days, said WFP spokesperson Shaza Moghraby.

“Distribution sites have been evacuated and shut down, terrified people are being displaced again, and every time this happens, it makes it more difficult for us to reach them. So, there is a major impact on our operations,” she said.


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South Caucasus News

Russia’s War Against Ukraine In 2024 And Looking Ahead To 2025 – Analysis


Russia’s War Against Ukraine In 2024 And Looking Ahead To 2025 – Analysis

Ukrainian soldiers fire on Russian forces. Photo Credit: Ukraine Defense Ministry

The failure of the Ukrainian 2023 offensive was in large part due to long delays in Western military assistance and the training of new Ukrainian brigades (Espreso, December 27, 2023). This gave Russia about nine months, from October 2022 to June 2023, to build fortifications along three “Surovikin lines,” including deep trenches, covered fighting positions, tank obstacles, and mines with a density of approximately five per square meter (Slovo i Dilo, September 2, 2023; BBC Ukrainian, September 27, 2023).

In particular, the delay in military supplies was caused by a lack of political will in the United States and Germany out of fear of nuclear escalation with Russia (Ukrinform, June 1; 24 Kanal, June 7). The rapid collapse and rout of Russian forces in the Kharkiv direction sparked fears in the Kremlin a Ukrainian breakthrough might south toward the Azov Sea, potentially leading to the collapse of Russia’s occupation in southeast Ukraine (Armiya Inform, September 6, 2023). In those conditions, Moscow’s nuclear threats became the most intense, further enflaming fears of escalation in the West (Holos Ameryky, September 23, 2022).

These developments over the past two years of war shed insight on what Ukraine can expect for the future. The increased interest from the West to provide aid to Ukraine and the continuing failures of the Russian army may open an opportunity for Ukraine to take the initiative in the war.

Since the failed offensive, contact along the frontlines has been roughly static, with large formations unable to break through defensive lines due to constant aerial threats, including an immense number of cheap drones (seeEDM, July 3). A six-month delay on the US Congress aid package prevented the adoption of a $61 billion aid package for Ukraine. During the delay, North Korea sent large quantities of low-quality artillery shells to Russia, a sign that Pyongyang has joined Moscow in its proclaimed wider conflict with the so-called “collective West” (TSN, January 15;Fakty, February 20;Foreign Affairs, April 23).

Russia enjoys several advantages over Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin outlined Russia’s strategy of slow gains in capturing Ukrainian territory, preventing future counteroffensives, and winning a long war of attrition (Kremlin.ru, June 7). Earlier this year, Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov signaled an official shift from prosecuting the “special military operation” to digging in and preparing for the “long war” (see EDM,October 2, 2023,April 1). What the Kremlin did not disclose, however, was that this shift in rhetoric and military tactics mirrors those used in the Soviet Union, including the wholesale destruction of towns and villages, like Bakhmut and Avdiivka.

Putin believes Russia has greater staying power in this war than Ukraine and the West (Pershyy Zakhidnyy, June 8). This is due in part to the willingness of Russians to accept high numbers of casualties, Russia’s economy has been pushed onto a war footing, and the general popularity of imperial nationalism, especially among ethnic Russians (TSN, May 18). The Kremlin is betting that Western governments, Putin will abandon Ukraine themselves or will do so after Russia persuades them to negotiate a trade of territory for peace.

Much of the Russian population has appeared to demonstrate an ambivalence to the high level of casualties (Teksty, November 6, 2023). According to the UK Ministry of Defense’s intelligence update, concurring with estimates by Ukrainian military intelligence, in May, Russia endured the highest number of casualties since the invasion began with a daily average of 1,200 and reaching a total of half a million (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, May 25;Ukrinform, May 28Europiyska Pravda, May 31). That may change should Moscow be forced to call for another round of mobilization—this time within the predominantly ethnic Russian city centers (seeEDM, September 18, 2023;Radio Svoboda, June 7). If Russians do continue to accept high casualties and if these losses can then be replaced by a similar number of recruits, Russian forces will likely maintain the initiative on the battlefield.

An unwillingness to launch another round of mobilization, nevertheless, prevents Russia from launching large offensives to capture Ukrainian cities. Russian attempts to capture the strategic Donetsk city of Chasiv Yar have failed, as has the Russian offensive in the Kharkiv direction (Unian, June 5). Russia does not have large reserves of manpower that are required to capture Kharkiv, a city of 1.5 million, let alone Kyiv with 4 million inhabitants (Suspilne Novyny, May 6). Additionally, some Russian units are still reeling from the intense numbers of casualties incurred in the capture of Bakhmut in May 2023 and Avdiivka in February 2024 (Mediazona, June 10).

Two other factors working against the Kremlin are Western sanctions, especially the impact on Russia’s energy exports, and the inability of Moscow’s military-industrial complex to replenish military stocks (see EDM, October 5, 31,December 7, 2023, April3, 29,May 30;Glavkom, May 19). Russian equipment losses have been quite high for the duration of the war—nearly 8,000 tanks, 15,000 armored personnel carriers, 13,500 artillery systems, 700 aircraft and helicopters, and a third of the Black Sea Fleet (including a submarine) have been lost (MinFinMedia, June 10). Russia is drawing on Soviet stocks, but these are finite (seeEDM, March 14).

Ukraine also has several strong points that have prevented a Russian victory. First, Ukraine has a large volunteer movement and resilient civil society (see EDM, March 16,23,April 19, 2022, April18,24;National Institute of Strategic Studies, November 2022). Second, Ukrainians understand the war is existential to their identity, which Russian imperial nationalists seek to destroy. Third, Ukraine’s army is reforming its military to North Atlantic Treaty Organization standards, introducing increased flexibility and a stronger officer corps (Korrespondent, January 31). Fourth, Ukraine has a growing military-industrial sector, both state and private, that has been incredibly innovative, developing cutting-edge naval drones, unmanned land-based vehicles, and drones that can both deliver payloads and shoot down targets (Teksty, April 19).

Ukraine’s remaining weak points are important inhibiters to future offensives. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy delayed building of fortifications along defensive lines and laying mines because it required a psychological adaptation from an offensive to defensive posture. Additionally, Ukraine has a smaller pool of manpower than Russia and delayed mobilization until the adoption of two laws in May (see EDM,10,24; Ukrainian Parliament, May9,18).

Ukraine is reliant on Western financial support of approximately $5 billion per month (Kyiv Post, May 20, 2022;Voice of America, October 2, 2023). The slow delivery of air defense systems to Ukraine has provided Russia with the ability to destroy a large portion of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, reducing the availability of electricity and leading to black outs (see EDM, June20,27,July 3). This will require additional Western funding to overcome ahead of the winter campaign.

The Kremlin’s long war of attrition proclaims the same goals of “de-militarization” and “de-nazification” of Ukraine and the destruction of Ukrainian identity to opening the way for the creation of a truncated “Little Russia” (Armiya Inform, October 31, 2023; Kuzio,Crimea: Where Russia’s War Started and Where Ukraine Will Win, July 8). Moscow is full aware that a long war is not in Ukraine’s interests as it increases social problems, severely damages children’s education, destroys the economy, and disincentivizes millions of Ukrainian refugees from returning home (Bruegel, September 27, 2022;UNICEF, February 21, 2023;Kyiv School of Economics, October 3, 2023).

Overall, it is in the best interest of Ukraine and the West to end the war quickly and definitely. The unwillingness of some Western countries to declare Ukraine’s ultimate victory and Russia’s complete defeat as their overarching goal, hesitant policies over using Western weapons to hit targets inside Russia, and the drip feed of military assistance have created the conditions for a long war (Unian, May 31).

The theme of 2024 will be a year of Ukraine defending against Russian assaults in Donbas, Kharkiv, and elsewhere. Nevertheless, with new Western and Ukrainian weaponry, including long-range missiles and jets, along with the steady mobilization of more military personnel, Ukraine will be ready to launch a determined offensive in 2025. 


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South Caucasus News

Project Total Control: Everything Is A Weapon When Totalitarianism Is Normalized – OpEd


Project Total Control: Everything Is A Weapon When Totalitarianism Is Normalized – OpEd

fear terror big brother

The U.S. government is working to re-shape the country in the image of a totalitarian state.

This has remained true over the past 50-plus years no matter which political party held office.

This will remain true no matter who wins the 2024 presidential election.

In the midst of the partisan furor over Project 2025,a 920-page roadmap for how to re-fashion the government to favor so-called conservative causes, both the Right and the Left have proven themselves woefully naive about the dangers posed by the power-hungry Deep State.

Yet we must never lose sight of the fact that both the Right and the Left and their various operatives areextensionsof the Deep State, which continues to wagepsychological warfareon the American people.

Psychological warfare, according to the Rand Corporation, “involves the planned use of propaganda and other psychological operations to influence the opinions, emotions, attitudes, and behavior of opposition groups.”

Foryearsnow, the government has been bombarding the citizenry with propaganda campaigns and psychological operations aimed at keeping us compliant, easily controlled and supportive of the government’s various efforts abroad and domestically.

The government is so confident in its Orwellian powers of manipulation that it’s taken to bragging about them. For example, in 2022, the U.S. Army’s 4th Psychological Operations Group, the branch of the military responsible forpsychological warfare, released a recruitingvideothat touts its efforts topull the strings, turn everything they touch into a weapon, be everywhere, deceive, persuade, change, influence, and inspire.

Have you ever wondered who’s pulling the strings?” the psyops video posits. “Anything we touch is a weapon. We can deceive, persuade, change, influence, inspire. We come in many forms. We are everywhere.”

This is the danger that lurks in plain sight.

Of the many weapons in the government’s vast arsenal, psychological warfare may be the most devastating in terms of the long-term consequences.

As the military journalTask and Purposeexplains, “Psychological warfare is all about influencing governments, people of power, and everyday citizens.”

Mind you, these psyops (psychological operations) campaigns aren’t only aimed at foreign enemies. The government has made clear in word and deed that “we the people” are domestic enemies to be targeted, tracked, manipulated, micromanaged, surveilled, viewed as suspects, and treated as if our fundamental rights are mere privileges that can be easily discarded.

This is what is referred to as “apple-pie propaganda.”

Aided and abetted by technological advances and scientific experimentation, the government has been subjecting the American people to “apple-pie propaganda” for the better part of the last century.

Consider some of the ways in which the government continues to wagepsychological warfareon a largely unsuspecting citizenry in order to acclimate us to the Deep State’s totalitarian agenda.

Weaponizing violence in order to institute martial law.With alarming regularity, the nation continues to be subjected to spates of violence that terrorizes the public, destabilizes the country’s ecosystem, and gives the government greater justifications to crack down, lock down, and institute even more authoritarian policies for the so-called sake of national security without many objections from the citizenry.

Weaponizing surveillance, pre-crime and pre-thought campaigns.Surveillance, digital stalking and the data mining of the American people add up to a society in which there’s little room for indiscretions, imperfections, or acts of independence. When the government sees all and knows all and has an abundance of laws to render even the most seemingly upstanding citizen a criminal and lawbreaker, then the old adage that you’ve got nothing to worry about if you’ve got nothing to hide no longer applies. Add pre-crime programs into the mix with government agencies and corporations working in tandem to determine who is apotentialdanger and spin a sticky spider-web ofthreat assessments, behavioral sensing warnings, flagged “words,” and “suspicious” activity reports using automated eyes and ears, social media,behavior sensing software, and citizen spies, and you having the makings for a perfect dystopian nightmare. The government’s war on crime has now veered into the realm of social media and technological entrapment, withgovernment agents adopting fake social media identities and AI-created profile picturesin order to surveil, target and capture potential suspects.

Weaponizing digital currencies, social media scores and censorship.Tech giants, working with the government, have been meting out their own version of social justice by way of digital tyranny and corporate censorship, muzzling whomever they want, whenever they want, on whatever pretext they want in the absence of any real due process, review or appeal. Unfortunately, digital censorship is just the beginning. Digital currencies (which can be used as “a tool for government surveillance of citizens and control over their financial transactions”), combined with social media scores and surveillance capitalism create a litmus test to determine who is worthy enough to be part of society andpunish individuals for moral lapsesand social transgressions (and reward them for adhering to government-sanctioned behavior). In China, millions of individuals and businesses, blacklisted as “unworthy” based on social media credit scores that grade them based on whether they are “good” citizens, have beenbanned from accessing financial markets, buying real estate or travelling by air or train.

Weaponizing compliance.Even the most well-intentioned government law or program can be—and has been—perverted, corrupted and used to advance illegitimate purposes once profit and power are added to the equation. The war on terror, the war on drugs, the war on COVID-19, the war on illegal immigration, asset forfeiture schemes, road safety schemes, school safety schemes, eminent domain: all of these programs started out as legitimate responses to pressing concerns and have since become weapons of compliance and control in the police state’s hands.

Weaponizing entertainment. For the past century, the Department of Defense’s Entertainment Media Office has provided Hollywood with equipment, personnel and technical expertise at taxpayer expense. In exchange, the military industrial complex has gottena starring role in such blockbusters asTop Gunand its rebooted sequelTop Gun: Maverick, which translates to free advertising for the war hawks, recruitment of foot soldiers for the military empire, patriotic fervor by the taxpayers who have to foot the bill for the nation’s endless wars, and Hollywood visionariesworking to churn out dystopian thrillers that make the war machine appear relevant, heroic and necessary. As Elmer Davis, a CBS broadcaster who was appointed the head of the Office of War Information, observed, “The easiest way to inject a propaganda idea into most people’s minds is to let it go through the medium of an entertainment picturewhen they do not realize that they are being propagandized.”

Weaponizing behavioral science and nudging.Apart from the overt dangers posed by a government that feels justified and empowered to spy on its people and use its ever-expanding arsenal of weapons and technology to monitor and control them, there’s also the covert dangers associated with a government empowered to use these same technologies to influence behaviorsen masseand control the populace. In fact, it was President Obama who issued an executive orderdirecting federal agencies to use “behavioral science” methodsto minimize bureaucracy and influence the way people respond to government programs. It’s a short hop, skip and a jump from a behavioral program that tries to influence how people respond to paperwork to a government program that tries to shape the public’s views about other, more consequential matters. Thus, increasingly, governments around the world—including in the United States—are relying on“nudge units” to steer citizens in the direction the powers-that-be want them to go, while preserving the appearance of free will.

Weaponizing desensitization campaigns aimed at lulling us into a false sense of security.The events of recent years—the invasive surveillance, the extremism reports, the civil unrest, the protests, the shootings, the bombings, the military exercises and active shooter drills, the lockdowns, the color-coded alerts and threat assessments, the fusion centers, the transformation of local police into extensions of the military, the distribution of military equipment and weapons to local police forces, the government databases containing the names of dissidents and potential troublemakers—have conspired to acclimate the populace to accept a police state willingly, even gratefully.

Weaponizing politics.The language of fear is spoken effectively by politicians on both sides of the aisle, shouted by media pundits from their cable TV pulpits, marketed by corporations, and codified into bureaucratic laws that do little to make our lives safer or more secure. Fear, as history shows, is the method most often used by politicians to increase the power of government and control a populace, dividing the people into factions, and persuading them to see each other as the enemy. This Machiavellian scheme has so ensnared the nation that few Americans even realize they are being manipulated into adopting an “us” against “them” mindset. Instead, fueled with fear and loathing for phantom opponents, they agree to pour millions of dollars and resources into political elections, militarized police, spy technology and endless wars, hoping for a guarantee of safety that never comes. All the while, those in power—bought and paid for by lobbyists and corporations—move their costly agendas forward, and “we the suckers” get saddled with the tax bills and subjected to pat downs, police raids and round-the-clock surveillance.

Weaponizing genetics.Not only does fear grease the wheels of the transition to fascism by cultivating fearful, controlled, pacified, cowed citizens, but it also embeds itself in our very DNA so that we pass on our fear and compliance to our offspring. It’s called epigenetic inheritance, the transmission through DNA of traumatic experiences. For example, neuroscientists observed that fear can travel through generations of mice DNA. AsThe Washington Postreports, “Studies on humans suggest that children and grandchildren may have felt the epigenetic impact of such traumatic events such as famine, the Holocaust and the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.”

Weaponizing the dystopian future.With greater frequency, the government has been issuing warnings about the dire need to prepare for the dystopian future that awaits us. For instance, the Pentagontraining video, “Megacities: Urban Future, the Emerging Complexity,” predicts that by 2030 (coincidentally, the same year that societybegins to achieve singularity with the metaverse) the military would be called on to use armed forces to solve future domestic political and social problems. What they’re really talking about is martial law, packaged as a well-meaning and overriding concern for the nation’s security. The chilling five-minute training video paints an ominous picture of the future bedeviled by “criminal networks,” “substandard infrastructure,” “religious and ethnic tensions,” “impoverishment, slums,” “open landfills, over-burdened sewers,” a “growing mass of unemployed,” and an urban landscape in which the prosperous economic elite must be protected from the impoverishment of the have nots. “We the people” are the have-nots.

The end goal of these mind control campaigns—packaged in the guise of the greater good—is to see how far the American people will allow the government to go in undermining our freedoms.

The facts speak for themselves.

Whatever else it may be—a danger, a menace, a threat—the U.S. government is certainly not looking out for our best interests, nor is it in any way a friend to freedom.

When the government views itself as superior to the citizenry, when it no longer operates for the benefit of the people, when the people are no longer able to peacefully reform their government, when government officials cease to act like public servants, when elected officials no longer represent the will of the people, when the government routinely violates the rights of the people and perpetrates more violence against the citizenry than the criminal class, when government spending is unaccountable and unaccounted for, when the judiciary act as courts of order rather than justice, and when the government is no longer bound by the laws of the Constitution, then you no longer have a government “of the people, by the people and for the people.”

What we have, as I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, is a government of wolves.


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South Caucasus News

What Happens In America Doesn’t Stay In America – OpEd


What Happens In America Doesn’t Stay In America – OpEd

Former President Donald Trump debates President Joe Biden. Photo Credit: Tasnim News Agency

By Faisal J. Abbas

“Country first, party second” were reassuring words on the steps of 10 Downing Street last week from the UK’s new Prime Minister Keir Starmer. At a time when polarization and division are paralysing major democracies including France and the US, such an attitude sends comforting signals to constituents, as well as to foreign investors, partners and allies worldwide. Whether this will remain the attitude of the Labour government, time will tell.

I fear the same cannot be said about last month’s disappointing US presidential debate.

I had initial thoughts that I wanted to share immediately after the painful 90 minutes in which the incumbent Democrat President Joe Biden sparred with the contender, the Republican nominee Donald J. Trump, but I opted not to write at the time. Why did I hold back? Apart from the few disappointing words by both candidates about Palestine, I thought it would be inappropriate for me, as the editor of a Saudi newspaper, to comment. After all, the sentiment and position of the Kingdom is, and has always been, that we don’t interfere in the internal affairs of others, and that our government will work closely with whichever president the American people choose.

The Biden administration is a case in point. Many assumed that after all the hot air and animosity before the 2020 election, Saudi Arabia would not work with Biden and his team. What actually happened? Thanks to a wise, patient and pragmatic Saudi foreign policy, the two countries couldn’t be any more closely aligned on mutual interests and a desire to spread peace and prosperity across the region. In addition, the commercial and economic benefits of a potential new US-Saudi deal on security guarantees and civilian nuclear assistance, with or without an enhanced relationship with Israel, are phenomenal. Now, whether or not the deal will still happen is another discussion. The point here is that this has been achieved with an administration that many believed, wrongly, the Kingdom stood against. Had Trump won the 2020 presidential election, the position would have been no different: Saudi Arabia would have worked equally hard to elevate and strengthen the relationship it has with its biggest and strongest partner.

So why do I say the June 27 presidential debate was painful? Well, it was disturbing for me to see how much disrespect was directed at Biden, who said later that he was simply not feeling well on that day. Like him or not, this man has given his all to his country, and while he has made his fair share of mistakes, many of which were referred to by Trump, they do not justify the personal attacks, online memes and nasty ageist comments about a long serving patriot and an elected leader.

Now, whether or not Biden chooses to step down and allow another candidate to take on Trump is an internal affair, up to him and his party. However, there is no doubt that Trump emerged from the presidential debate having looked better prepared, and it improved his support in the opinion polls. It is also true that during his presidency he achieved much in terms of foreign policy — most notably with China, with the Abraham Accords in the Middle East, by taking out some of the most heinous and wanted terrorists on the face of the earth, and by killing the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran.

Yet instead of seeking to impress voters, and viewers alike; many comments exchanged during the debate were personal that focused on the physical and mental ability of the candidates — which I must say was neither reassuring nor uplifting. After all, this was a presidential debate, not a boxing weigh-in.

I guess many would agree with me that this debate offered no inspiration at all. Perhaps I expected more because I happen to be living in a country and a part of the world where exciting things are happening at this moment in time. For instance, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will be the patron of the Global Artificial Intelligence summit in Riyadh in September. The patronage of the crown prince is limited to a few events every year, so this is an indicator of how important and significant the event is. Exciting announcements are expected, and many industry leaders will participate in an event that is meant to help the whole world shape and better understand this technological revolution.

Surprisingly, however, AI was not mentioned once during the presidential debate in a world leading country that is facing severe competition from rivals around the world in this particular field.

Similarly, at a time when the space economy is expected to reach $1.8 trillion by next year, not a single word was said about space exploration by two candidates who both lived through the exciting times of the first moon landing and who realize the potential and capability of NASA. Meanwhile, the Saudi Space Agency has sent the first female Muslim to the International Space Station and is working hard to inspire a whole generation to conquer this new realm and make the most of its economy.

It is not that the topics debated by Biden and Trump were unimportant, but US politicians should stop and reflect how never-ending arguments about immigration and abortion convey the impression that their country is unable to move forward. The Supreme Court ruling on Roe vs Wade was issued in January 1973: it should not still be an issue more than 50 years later. I realize that women’s rights are not the strongest point in the Kingdom’s previous track record, but thanks to the reforms that began eight years ago most issues have been permanently resolved and are no longer part of the public discussion: nobody even thinks about reimposing the guardianship laws or restoring the ban on women driving. Things have moved on: female participation in the Saudi workforce more than doubled from 17 percent to 36 percent between 2017 and 2023.

The bottom line is, both candidates need to remember that the case still very much is that what happens in America doesn’t stay in America, and that when Washington sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold. So, whoever the US elects in November needs to reignite belief in the American Dream and end the nightmare of division, polarization and political bickering that impacts global reputation, foreign direct investment and the interests of key partners and allies.

• Faisal J. Abbas is the editor-in-chief of Arab News.


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South Caucasus News

Myanmar: Confusion, Delusion Vs Resolution Of Revolution – OpEd


Myanmar: Confusion, Delusion Vs Resolution Of Revolution – OpEd

burma myanmar flag peace

Myanmar has endured the longest ongoing civil war in the world, lasting nearly four score years since gaining independence in 1948. Many viewed the armed conflicts as largely ethnic-based revolts for autonomy. This misinterpretation was exploited by the Myanmar military (pejoratively known as Sit-Tat), which has seized power since 1962 under the guise of defending unity and sovereignty. However, the last coup by General Min Aung Hlaing on February 1, 2021, ironically presented an opportunity for all ethnic groups in Myanmar to uproot the military dictatorship, the root cause of long-standing crises of continued armed struggles, atrocities, and poverty.

The coup was met with strong resistance through widespread, peaceful demonstrations and the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM). The brutal crackdown by the military led to the formation of armed resistance across the country, entering a violent new chapter known as the Spring Revolution. This involved a genuine nationwide resistance by all ethnic groups, brought together into a unified front with aligned political objectives and military cooperation. Now in its fourth year, Sit-Tat faces fierce opposition from both established ethnic resistance organizations (EROs) and newly formed Local Defense Forces (LDF) and People’s Defense Force (PDF) under the National Unity Government (NUG). The once-perceived supremacy of the military and its decades-long dominance in Myanmar’s political arena has suffered a colossal defeat and now appears destined for the garbage heap of history.

It is crucial to learn lessons from the American Revolution to the Arab Spring. The former was a revolution against a foreign oppressive ruler, Great Britain, with an overwhelming strategic and military advantage, by attracting the support of Britain’s enemies, France and Spain1. The latter was a failure to replace the repressive autocracies with democracies due to the absence of stable institutions or external assistance2. The Myanmar Spring Revolution is unique in that it is a constellation of opposing forces of justice and injustice, dictatorship and democracy, autonomy of ethnic groups and the ambition of forming a federal union based on equal opportunity, as well as geopolitics caught between the two most populous countries and global tension at the peak of a new cold war between the two superpowers.

The key to victory is for all Myanmar people to have a clear vision of their common goals—what they are fighting against and what they are fighting for—as well as to steer delicate diplomacy in the region and between the superpowers. The goal is not merely to end the military dictatorship, but to fulfill the pursuit of liberty, democracy, peace, and prosperity through justice, equity, harmony, and unity for all ethnic groups in Myanmar.

As the revolution turned the tide from stalemate since October 2023, misinformation and disinformation increased, confusing the public and the world, resulting in delusions that jeopardized the revolution and enabled the junta. The hypes of “fragmentation” and “disintegration” were amplified by the junta proxy media and “experts” sympathetic to or affiliated with military elites as the EROs exercised their long-lost autonomy in newly gained territories. The intention was to instill the delusion of decentralized government leading to self-governing statelets, resulting in a failed state3. This echoed the notorious propaganda of Ne Win and his generals. In reality, no ERO has ever demanded complete secession.

It is true that the Sit-Tat has overwhelming firepower, including the air force and heavy artillery. But the delusion that the military is not on the brink of collapse is the same mistake made by some experts who predicted three years ago that “the military will win in the end.”4 History has taught even the superpowers that advanced weapons and overwhelming firepower are not the determining factors in winning a war. Sit-Tat is on a deep slippery slope due to lack of support from the people and mismanagement by corrupt leadership. The days of Min Aung Hlaing and his inner circle are numbered. Quoting Sun Tzu: “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.” It is crucial to remember that the military is not the only means to an end in a revolution, which also requires political, diplomatic, and economic fronts.

At the beginning of the revolution, there was a naive expectation of military intervention by the US as in Afghanistan and Syria and military aid as in Ukraine and Israel. There were hypes about the R2P (Responsibility to Protect) by the UN or a No-Fly Zone by the West and the US. The lack of these actions, as well as the continued presence of the US embassy in Yangon and the absence of recognition of the NUG, culminated in the delusion among Myanmar people that US influence was limited in shaping Myanmar’s future, being restricted by Beijing. The reality was that although the US condemned the coup and refused to engage with the military junta, its response was inadequate due to competing priorities and a more general approach to humanitarian intervention. This meant that the US might have overlooked opportunities to fully support democracy and freedom in Myanmar, especially considering the urgency of the situation and the numerous conflicts demanding US attention worldwide.5.

The aid allocated in NDAAs by the US was not palpable to people in conflict-affected areas, leading to the delusion of misuse of the funds. The reality was that there were obstacles in delivering the aid due to limited cross-border access and existing NGOs being practically restricted in their operations in military-controlled ports and territories.

There has been confusion about the genesis and role of the NUG, leading to the delusion that the NUG was sidelined during the acceleration of the revolution because of inadequate transparency, further compounded by disinformation and misinformation. After the coup, the 298 elected parliamentarians who escaped arrest held a virtual emergency session and formed the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH)6. The National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC)7, a national assembly consisting of CRPH representatives, ethnic groups, political parties, CDM activists, and CSOs, was established under the Federal Democratic Charter (FDC) and later appointed the NUG to function as an interim government during the revolution8.

The NUG led the revolution on diplomatic and economic fronts, fundraising, technical support, and administered governance via administrative offices, provided a crypto banking (Spring Development Bank), digital currency (NUG Pay) worldwide, and services for health and education in liberated areas. Three military regions under Central Command and Coordination Committee (C3C), Joint Command and Coordination (J2C) were formed to coordinate military operations with NUG and ERO leadership9. The NUG has achieved historical unity and cooperation with the EROs through sincere dialogue and successfully formed a political alliance (K3C) with the Chin National Front, Karen National Union, Karenni National Progressive Party, and Kachin Independence Organization (non-signee)10.

The Myanmar diaspora around the world is also a crucial proponent of the revolution in fundraising, logistic support, and advocacy to their concerned residential countries and international communities. While there are multiple community organizations in different parts of the world that appear to be heterogeneous and desynchronized, it is a good indication of historic global participation of all Myanmar ethnic descendants. The reality is all Myanmar diasporas are standing for one common goal benefiting all people of Myanmar.

While these groups are not without fault, building and maintaining a unified front across the political and military fronts is key to victory for the revolution. While there will be disagreements and different priorities and interests among the groups, it is essential for all actors to stay focused on their common enemy and avoid turning against each other. The differences can be discussed democratically, debated peacefully, and negotiated sincerely. All parties must avoid the political obstacles set by internal and external enemies that could divide their unity and derail their mission.

The NUG must step up its leadership in expanding the alliance with all the EROs and consolidating unity and solidarity by forming a National Unified Government, which would be a good standing for international recognition. Leaders must embrace transparency, tolerance, flexibility, mobility, and adaptability to meet a plethora of demands with limited resources. The rigidity of old politics and doctrines must be transformed. It is time to set clear strategies for political, military, and economic plans. As much as the NUG has innovatively raised lawful funds, it is time to establish a sustainable business enterprise.

The diaspora should be systematically organized and delegated for their knowledge, skills, and resources to enrich the capacity of the revolutionary forces. To avoid the crisis stage of revolution marked by radical reign of terror and the Thermidor stage with the establishment of a new tyrant as in the French and Russian Revolutions, and to adopt an exceptional American Revolution11, post-revolution plans for reconciliation of differences, reunification of ethnicities, reformulation of a new union with a new constitution, rebuilding of the war-torn country, and restoration of peace and prosperity must be made.

The ASEAN and neighboring countries should accept that the corrupt generals are the impediment to regional stability and economic growth. As some countries may have short-sighted benefits of cheap labor and dumping grounds for their poor-quality products, an unstable Myanmar means more refugees, crimes involving drugs, human trafficking, and online scams that will spread not only regionally but globally. The West and the international community must enforce an arms and jet fuel embargo as well as targeted sanctions against the top brass, their family members, and cronies.

China must honor and implement the 1954 historic “Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence” sincerely and in good faith for the mutual benefit of the Sino-Myanmar people, not for the war criminals who are also at the center of corruption scandals.

The US strategy on Myanmar should not be about tit-for-tat with China, but it should be about genuinely being a reliable, trusted, and good partner for values of freedom and democracy. The US should take a leading role in supporting the resistance by providing substantial support for nonlethal assistance for governance and humanitarian aid. The 2017 National Security Strategy of preventing violent conflicts and engaging in peacebuilding12 will not be effective in dealing with Myanmar generals. There will be no negotiation unless the military accepts civilian oversight and surrenders its involvement in politics. It is vital that the military relinquishes political power and forgoes impunity for war crimes.

While the future of Myanmar must be shaped by Myanmar’s people with prudence, patience, and perseverance, the international community must stand firm to support the quest for liberty, democracy, peace, and prosperity. The revolution must prevail.

References:

  1. https://history.state.gov/departmenthistory/short-history/diplomacy
  2. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-4939-1705-1_16
  3. https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/b180-ethnic-autonomy-and-its-consequences-post-coup-myanmar
  4. https://asiatimes.com/2021/02/why-myanmars-military-will-win-in-the-end/
  5. https://www.sanders.senate.gov/op-eds/a-revolution-in-american-foreign-policy/
  6. https://crphmyanmar.org/history-and-formation-of-crph/
  7. https://wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Unity_Consultative_Council
  8. https://www.nugmyanmar.org/
  9. https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/11/understanding-peoples-defense-forces-myanmar
  10. https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Myanmar-Crisis/Myanmar-resistance-groups-offer-conditional-talks-with-military
  11. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Anatomy_of_Revolution
  12. https://www.state.gov/united-states-strategy-to-prevent-conflict-and-promote-stability/

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