Day: July 6, 2024

The UN voiced deep concern on Friday at the increase in the intensity of exchanges of fire across the Blue Line, which separates Lebanese and Israeli armed forces.

The latest escalation, which occurred on Thursday, “heightens the risk of a full-scale war”, the Office of the Spokesperson for the Secretary-General said in a note to correspondents.

“Escalation can and must be avoided. We reiterate that the danger of miscalculation leading to a sudden and wider conflagration is real,” it added, stressing that a political and diplomatic solution is the only viable way forward.

It further noted that on Thursday, the UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon (UNSCOL), Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, met with the country’s officials, including Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, underscoring the need for de-escalation across the Blue Line.

“We echo the appeals of UNSCOL and the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) urging the parties to immediately return to a cessation of hostilities and to recommit to the full implementation of Security Council resolution 1701,” the note added.

Nine in 10 displaced in Gaza

Meanwhile, nine out of 10 people in Gaza are now reported to be internally displaced, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in the occupied Palestinian territory (OPT).

In a humanitarian bulletin on Friday, OCHA cited estimates indicating that the number of people internally displaced within Gaza has risen from 1.7 to 1.9 million people.

“Mass displacement has been predominantly driven by evacuation orders issued by the Israeli military, extensive destruction of both private and public infrastructure, restricted access to essential services, and the persistent fear of ongoing hostilities,” OCHA noted.

It added that Israeli bombardment from the air, land, and sea continues to be reported across much of the Gaza Strip, resulting in further civilian casualties, displacement, and destruction of houses and other civilian infrastructure.

Major hospital ‘empty’

OCHA also reported that on 1 July, Israeli military issued the second largest evacuation order since October 2023, urging residents of 71 residential blocs in eastern Khan Younis and Rafah to immediately evacuate westwards to what the military defines as a “humanitarian zone” in Al Mawasi.

Though the authorities clarified the next day that the order did not apply to the European Gaza Hospital (EGH), most medical staff and patients there – including those who were on their beds with drips, hastily fled in fear that it would become non-functional based on past experiences at hospitals that were in areas slated for evacuation.

EGH was completely empty by that evening and all 320 medical personnel and patients had left, OCHA said.

Most patients were referred to Nasser Medical Complex, which reached full capacity with more than 350 inpatients, amid critical shortages of medications and supplies for surgeries.

Severe lack of fuel

Furthermore, lack of fuel is exacerbating the provision of healthcare.

“Further disruption to health services is imminent in Gaza due to a severe lack of fuel,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the UN World Health Organization, warned in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

“Only 90,000 litres of fuel entered Gaza yesterday. The health sector alone needs 80,000 litres daily, forcing the UN, including WHO and partners to make impossible choices,” he added.

Limited fuel has also affected water and sanitation infrastructure, worsening living conditions and complicating aid operations across the war-ravaged enclave.

In a significant turn of events, reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian has emerged victorious in Iran’s presidential election, defeating his hard-line rival, Saeed Jalili. The results were announced after Pezeshkian secured 53.3 percent of the more than 30 million votes counted, compared with Jalili’s 44.3 percent. This pivotal vote comes at a critical juncture marked by heightened tensions both domestically and internationally. Does the election outcome have far-reaching implications for Iran’s internal political landscape, as well as its foreign policy and relations with the global community?

First, it is essential to highlight that the voter turnout was 49.8 percent, which is historically low. The low turnout reflects several underlying issues, such as widespread public dissatisfaction with the economic situation and political process, potential disenchantment with the candidates, and perhaps a broader sense of apathy or disillusionment.

Pezeshkian has navigated two distinct career paths in medicine and politics. As an Iranian heart surgeon of Azerbaijani and Kurdish heritage, he was actively involved in the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war, not only sending medical teams to the front lines, but also serving as a combatant and physician. After the conflict, he furthered his medical studies, focusing on general surgery at Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, and obtaining a subspecialty in cardiac surgery from Iran University of Medical Sciences in 1993. His surgical expertise led to his appointment as president of Tabriz University of Medical Sciences in 1994, a role he held for five years.

In 1994, a car accident resulted in the tragic loss of his wife, Fatemeh Majidi, and one of his daughters. In 1997, Pezeshkian transitioned into politics by joining Mohammed Khatami’s administration as deputy health minister. He was promoted to health minister in 2001, a position he held until 2005. Since then, he has been a significant figure in the Iranian parliament, representing Tabriz for five terms, and serving as the first deputy speaker from 2016 to 2020.

Pezeshkian is often categorized as a reformist or moderate within Iran’s political landscape for several compelling reasons. Similar to former presidents Mohammad Khatami and Hassan Rouhani, he stands for fostering improved relations with Western nations, notably the US. His advocacy for stronger diplomatic ties is rooted in the belief that such relations could lead to the lifting of sanctions, bolstered trade opportunities, economic enhancement and, ultimately, a stronger Islamic Republic.

Moreover, Pezeshkian has not shied away from criticizing the Iranian government, particularly regarding its handling of protests. He has voiced concern over the authorities’ stringent measures against demonstrators, particularly highlighting issues surrounding women’s rights and the enforcement of the hijab rule. He said: “We will respect the hijab law, but there should never be any intrusive or inhumane behavior toward women.”

Nevertheless, it is important to point out that Pezeshkian has consistently shown strong support for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, criticizing the US for designating it as a terrorist organization. His past public display of wearing the IRGC uniform in parliament further underscores his alignment with this stance.

In addition, his approval by the Guardian Council to run for the presidency and his sustained career in Iranian politics indicate his loyalty to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the foundational revolutionary principles of the Islamic Republic. Pezeshkian appears to be advocating for policies such as improving Western relations not as a challenge to the system, but as a means of enhancing its resilience and effectiveness. Like other figures considered moderates or reformists, he seeks to strengthen the Islamic Republic through different strategies, while maintaining its core principles.

The international community should temper its expectations regarding Pezeshkian’s potential to bring about fundamental changes in Iran. The reality is that the country’s domestic and foreign policies are primarily controlled by the supreme leader and the senior leadership of the IRGC. These entities wield significant authority, often overshadowing efforts by reform-minded figures, such as Khatami, in the past. History has demonstrated that even those labeled as reformists have been constrained by the overarching influence of the supreme leader and the IRGC, whose decisions hold sway in Iranian governance and strategic direction. Thus, while individuals such as Pezeshkian may advocate for certain reforms or policies, their ability to enact substantial change remains limited.

In other words, Iran’s stance on regional policies, support for proxies, and approach to nuclear and ballistic missile programs are unlikely to change. Historically, when a so-called reformist assumes office, it often triggers a reactionary response from hard-liners who intensify crackdowns domestically. This serves as a clear signal to Iranian society that despite any electoral changes, the hard-liners maintain authority and control. Thus, while there may be shifts in rhetoric or emphasis, particularly on issues such as domestic reform or international relations, the core strategies and policies of Iran are typically upheld by the entrenched hard-line power structures within the country.

In conclusion, while Pezeshkian’s victory as a reformist or moderate may signal potential for nuanced policy approaches, particularly in diplomacy with the West and criticisms of domestic governance, it remains clear that fundamental shifts in Iran’s core policies — such as regional strategies, support for proxies, and nuclear ambitions — are unlikely under the prevailing influence of the supreme leader and the IRGC.

This continuity suggests that while Pezeshkian and others may advocate for change, the entrenched power structures within Iran will continue to shape the country’s direction, maintaining stability according to their established principles. In addition, the low voter turnout underscores broader public disillusionment and raises questions about the election’s legitimacy. Thus, while the election outcome may appear to introduce new dynamics, it underscores the enduring dominance of Iran’s conservative elements in determining its trajectory, both domestically and on the global stage.

By Ken Bredemeier

U.S. President Joe Biden, with his five-decade political career and 2024 reelection campaign on the brink, insisted in a nationally televised interview Friday that he has both the mental acuity and physical stamina to win the election against former President Donald Trump and to run the country for another four years.

“I’m the most qualified person and I know how to get things done,” Biden told ABC News anchor George Stephanopoulos in a 22-minute interview. Earlier Friday he assured a rally of about 300 supporters in the Midwestern political battleground state of Wisconsin, “I am staying in the race.”

Some Democratic lawmakers in Washington privately – and increasingly publicly – have voiced concerns that Biden, at 81, no longer has the mental and physical capacity to take on Trump over the four months leading to the November 5 election, let alone govern the country over the next four years.

But Biden told Stephanopoulos, “If the Lord Almighty came down and said, ‘Joe, get out of the race,’ I’d get out of the race. But the Lord Almighty is not coming down.”

The Democrats’ fear that Biden’s time in power is nearing the end have mounted since Biden appeared confused and halting during his debate with Trump a week ago, at times losing his train of thought and unable to mount a sustained attack on Trump or consistently defend his 3½-year tenure in office.

“I was exhausted,” he said of the debate night. “I was feeling terrible … a bad cold.” He said his poor performance was “nobody’s fault but mine. It was a bad episode.”

But Biden was alert on Friday and answered Stephanopoulos’ questions with little hesitation. He was eager to attack Trump.

“Trump is a pathological liar,” Biden contended, adding for emphasis, “The man is a congenital liar.” Biden cited news accounts that said Trump had told 28 lies during the 90-minute debate.

Stephanopoulos said Trump turned down a chance to also sit for an interview with ABC.

The news anchor, one of the most prominent journalists in the United States, asked Biden whether he had ever had a neurological test, and Biden responded by saying, “I get a full neurological test every day,” dealing with world and domestic issues.

Asked whether he had ever had a cognitive test, the president responded, “No one has said I need to.”

With Biden’s poor debate performance, numerous polls have shown Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, pulling ahead in the contest. After Biden won in 2020, it will be the first time the same two major party candidates have opposed each other in consecutive U.S. presidential elections since 1956.

But Biden took issue with Stephanopoulos’ contention that he was falling behind.

“All the pollsters I talk to say it’s a toss-up,” Biden said.

Biden assured his supporters at the rally in Madison, Wisconsin, “I am running, and I’m going to win again.”

“I beat Donald Trump,” a forceful Biden said, as the crowd cheered and waved campaign signs. “I will beat him again.”

Three major U.S. newspapers,The New York Times,The Washington PostandThe Wall Street Journal, have reported in recent days that Biden’s mental lapses have become more frequent in recent months, with some Western officials saying they noted his apparent decline at the recent G-7 summit in Italy.

Biden’s delivery and sharpness in answering Stephanopoulos’ questions were sure to be parsed, not only by Trump and his aides, but by Democrats wondering whether their candidate is up to taking on Trump, who is 78, and himself has sometimes misspoken.

At the rally, Biden played off his own missteps, quoting one of Trump’s campaign comments, when Trump said, “George Washington’s army won the revolution by taking control of the airports from the British.”

As the crowd laughed, Biden continued, “Talk about me misspeaking.”

The White House realized the high stakes of the interview with the ABC anchor. Biden press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said that “millions of Americans” were expected to watch.

Most Democrats have held fast in their support for Biden and his running mate, Vice President Kamala Harris, but some have been suggesting the party would be better off with Biden dropping out and Harris taking his place as the presidential standard bearer.

The national Democratic Party is holding its quadrennial nominating convention in August, leaving the party little time to settle on its presidential nominee.

At least three Democrats in the House of Representatives have called for Biden to step down as the nominee, with Representative Seth Moulton of Massachusetts expressing his concerns in a Thursday radio interview and joining Representatives Lloyd Doggett of Texas and Raúl Grijalva of Arizona in seeking an alternative.

“President Biden has done enormous service to our country, but now is the time for him to follow in one of our founding fathers’, George Washington’s, footsteps and step aside to let new leaders rise up and run against Donald Trump,” Moulton told radio station WBUR.

While not going that far, Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey said in a carefully worded statement Friday that Biden now has a decision to make on “the best way forward.”

“Over the coming days, I urge him to listen to the American people and carefully evaluate whether he remains our best hope to defeat Donald Trump,” Healey said. “Whatever President Biden decides, I am committed to doing everything in my power to defeat Donald Trump.”

This is a milestone for Pakistan to host the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) conference in October 2024. The organization’s importance can be estimated from the fact that it is the largest organization in the world geographically, including 80% of Eurasia and 40% of the world’s population. If we look at the founding members, Russia and China founded it in 2001, and Pakistan was an observer member from 2005 to 2017 and became a regular member in June 2017.

In light of Pakistan’s economic crisis, hosting the SCO summit is highly significant. Pakistan should prioritize enhancing bilateral cooperation and extending economic connections more heavily as it grows. Pakistan may greatly benefit from the SCO platform by strengthening economic ties, attracting international investment, and increasing regional commerce. By opening itself up to new opportunities for growth and success, Pakistan has an excellent opportunity to show its dedication to regional collaboration and economic development by hosting the conference. If Pakistan is serious about reviving its economy and solving pressing development issues, it must actively participate in this diplomatic endeavor.

As two powerful countries, India and Pakistan, meet for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, they can discuss things and set their disagreements aside. Despite India’s 2016 decision not to attend the SAARC meeting, the SCO platform presents a new opportunity for the two countries to set aside their disputes and work together to improve economic, cultural, and developmental connections. A more cooperative and peaceful atmosphere in the area might be achieved if India and Pakistan thaw their frozen relations via constructive interaction. Numerous positive outcomes, such as rekindled cooperation, economic prosperity, and stability in the area, may result from this revitalized contact.

It is critical to maintain good peace to establish groups like SCO, which may focus on reducing the likelihood of conflict and concentrating on economic development and cooperation. Nations that value diplomacy, mutual understanding, and respect are more likely to achieve constructive peace, creating conditions conducive to economic growth and development over the long run. By promoting a culture of peace and redirecting resources from military spending to social welfare, innovation, and economic growth, the member states of the SCO have the potential to build a more peaceful and prosperous region. This strategy has the potential to help nations improve their futures, increase national security, and resolve global issues.

The SCO is an important regional platform that includes China, Russia, India, Pakistan, and the Central Asian nations. Its members have a combined population of more than 40% and a GDP of 20%. Much has been achieved by the SCO since its inception in 2001. The result of this partnership is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the Joint Research Center (JRC), and the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS). While the SCO promotes economic cooperation, BRI promotes commerce and infrastructural development, and RATS combats terrorism. During its summit in October 2024, the organization is expected to tackle essential matters such as strengthening regional security cooperation, increasing economic connections, and combating new threats such as pandemics and climate change. The SCO can shape the area’s future and strive for greater peace, stability, and prosperity because of its combined economic might and geopolitical influence.

As the site of the next SCO summit, Pakistan is well-positioned to reap several benefits. Pakistan will showcase its hospitality and economic strength by hosting the conference, which is anticipated to attract delegates and leaders from eight member nations. An estimated ten to fifteen per cent rise in trade volume and one billion dollars in foreign direct investment are on the table. Pakistan can enhance its geopolitical influence and stability by strengthening diplomatic ties with regional countries. If Pakistan can host the SCO conference well, it will prove that it can successfully host major international events, elevating its prestige further.

NPR News: 07-06-2024 6PM EDT

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Who Is New Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian and What are His Policies? – Bloomberg  Bloomberg

Iran’s New Reformist President Unlikely To Bring Major Policy Shifts  Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Painting roofs white or covering them with a reflective coating would be more effective at cooling cities like London than vegetation-covered “green roofs,” street-level vegetation or solar panels, finds a new study led by UCL researchers.

Conversely, extensive use of air conditioning would warm the outside environment by as much as 1 degree C in London’s dense city centre, the researchers found.

The research, published inGeophysical Research Letters, used a three-dimensional urban climate model of Greater London to test the thermal effects of different passive and active urban heat management systems, including painted “cool roofs,” rooftop solar panels, green roofs, ground level tree vegetation and air conditioning during the two hottest days of the summer of 2018, the warmest on record.

It found that if adopted widely throughout London, cool roofs could reduce outdoor temperatures across the city on average about 1.2 degrees C, and up to 2 degrees C in some locations. Other systems, such as extensive street-level vegetation or solar panels would provide a smaller net cooling effect, only about 0.3 degrees C on average across London, though they offer other environmental benefits. Similarly, while green roofs offer benefits like water drainage and wildlife habitats, their net cooling effect on the city was found to be negligible on average.

Air conditioning, which transfers heat from within buildings to the outside, would warm the outdoor urban environment by about 0.15 degrees C for the city overall, but by as much as 1 degree C in dense central London. The researchers also found that the increase in the distribution of air con units in their model could be entirely powered by photovoltaic solar panels if they were similarly installed to their fullest extent.

To gauge the potential full effect of each method, the team modelled each one as though they had been as widely adopted as theoretically feasible across housing, commercial and industrial buildings throughout Greater London.

Lead author Dr Oscar Brousse (UCL Bartlett School Environment, Energy & Resources) said: “We comprehensively tested multiple methods that cities like London could use to adapt to and mitigate warming temperatures, and found that cool roofs were the best way to keep temperatures down during extremely hot summer days. Other methods had various important side benefits, but none were able to reduce outdoor urban heat to nearly the same level.”

As the climate changes, residents within cities are particularly vulnerable to warming temperatures. Cities generally trap heat, inducing the Urban Heat Island effect that can lead to greater discomfort and mortality for residents during hot spells. Finding ways to adapt or mitigate these warming temperatures has become a high priority for city planners and designers, who have been exploring passive cooling methods like cool roofs, green roofs and expanded urban vegetation as well as active methods for building interiors like air con.

The study offered additional insights into urban heat management by comprehensively comparing several common passive and active heat mitigation actions.

By reflecting rather than absorbing heat, cool roofs have the dual benefit of not only cooling the outside urban environment but the inside of buildings as well.

Though on average the effect of green roofs was negligible, the researchers found that their effect on temperature varied significantly throughout the day. During the warmest times of day, the wide adoption of green roofs could lower urban temperatures by an average of 0.5 degrees C. However, this would be offset overnight as the thermal mass from the roofs would retain daytime heat, releasing when the sun was down and increasing night-time temperatures by about the same amount.

Converting city greenspaces from grass to deciduous tree cover would cool temperatures overnight but at best would have mixed net effects during the day. In addition, it would likely increase the amount of water vapour in the air, which would effectively increase the air humidity and could affect residents’ thermal comfort.

The research was supported by Wellcome and NERC.

One of the key metrics for climate modelling is radiative forcing. Most climate models, including the general circulation models (GCMs), focus on the effects of different atmospheric factors on radiative forcing. However, there are still large uncertainties in satellite observations and multi-model simulations associated with some atmospheric factors. Among them, clouds are a known source of uncertainty in GCMs, leading to radiative biases. However, another possible source of radiative uncertainty is associated with precipitation.

In principle, precipitating particles affect radiative forcing by disrupting incoming shortwave and outgoing longwave radiations. But most conventional GCMs in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) treat precipitation diagnostically and exclude the radiative effects of precipitation (REP). Extracting the magnitude of REP in climate models is challenging because of complicated atmosphere-ocean feedback and multi-model variabilities. To this end, a new study, published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, led by Associate Professor Takuro Michibata from Okayama University investigated the influence of REP on radiative forcing at different geographical scales.

Dr. Michibata employed three sub-versions of the Japanese GCM, MIROC6, incorporating different precipitation and radiative calculation treatments. These sub-versions included diagnostic precipitation without REP (DIAG), prognostic precipitation without REP (PROG REP-OFF), and prognostic precipitation with REP (PROG REP-ON), to quantify the influence of precipitating particles on the radiation budgets and hydrological cycles at both global and regional scales. “In addition to modifying the MIROC6 model, we also used 34 climate models from the CMIP6 data archive to better understand the REP on the seasonal variations of the Arctic amplification. Thus, by using sets of simulations and multiple satellite observations, we systematically documented the significance of REP on the global and regional hydrological cycle and energy budget,” explains Dr. Michibata.

The study found that REP affects not only the local thermodynamic profile but also the remote precipitation rate and distribution by altering atmospheric circulation. Due to the precipitating particles in the atmosphere, there is a collective reduction in the net shortwave radiation (“parasol effect”). At the same time, the inverse is observed on the net longwave radiation (“warming effect”), especially in the Arctic zone. As per PROG REP-ON, this results in a weakening of the radiative cooling in the atmosphere and thus slowing down the hydrological cycle at a global level.

The surface warming is more pronounced in the polar regions, with a noticeable increase in surface temperature—by more than 1 K on an average—during winter, as compared to the simulation without REP. This temperature increase is more than twice as large as the summer warming. The study basically emphasizes on the magnitude of surface warming in PROG REP-ON, which is stronger in winter than in summer. This was further verified with the 34 CMIP6 models that also showed systematic variations in Arctic amplification upon factoring in REP.

In contrast, the temperature variations over tropical and subtropical regions were found to be relatively small. In fact, the three-dimensional radiation budget analysis showed that precipitation change was the main effect of REP in the tropics, as opposed to the significant temperature change in the polar regions.

These results indicate that REP has a significant influence on the radiation budget and hydrological cycle at both global and regional scales, which can provide valuable information on REP’s impact mechanism on temperature and precipitation changes. Furthermore, this implies that including REP in GCMs could improve precipitation and temperature biases in climate models and therefore improve the accuracy of these climate simulations against observational evidence.

“Current climate models still have large uncertainties, particularly in simulating the Arctic climate. Given that the Arctic climate is remotely linked to mid-latitude meteorology and weather, this study will contribute towards the improvement of climate models for more accurate prediction of future climate change and changes in the occurrence of extreme weather. Moreover, the process-level understanding in the REP will be useful for other modeling groups in future model development,” concludes Dr. Michibata.

Iran’s president-elect faced challenges from day one  ایران اینترنشنال