Day: June 29, 2024

Borno is at the center of a 15-year Islamist insurgency that has killed thousands of people and displaced millions more. Although the Nigerian military has degraded the capabilities of the militants, they still carry out deadly attacks against civilians and security targets. 

Barkindo Saidu, director general of the Borno State Emergency Management Agency, said suspected suicide bombers separately attacked a wedding, funeral and hospital, killing and injuring several people in the town of Gwoza. 

Saidu said 18 deaths had been confirmed, a toll that included children, adults and pregnant women. 

“The degree of injuries ranges from abdominal ruptures, skull fractures, and limb fractures,” he said. 

No one has claimed responsibility for the attacks. 

Borno state police were not immediately available for comment. 

Boko Haram and its splinter group, Islamic State West Africa Province, are the most active militant groups in Borno, a large swath of rural hinterland the size of Ireland. 

By Luke Coffey

For more than three decades, Azerbaijan and Armenia have been locked in a state of war. Sometimes this has been in the form of a frozen conflict with little fighting. At other times the hostilities have been intense, costly, and bloody.

Hopefully, the relationship between these two neighbors in the South Caucasus is finally on the verge of changing for the better.

During the chaotic collapse of the Soviet Union, ethnic Armenians living in Azerbaijan’s Karabakh region attempted to secede using extraconstitutional methods. Soon after, Armenian military forces entered Azerbaijan, backing the ethnic Armenian militias, and a bloody war ensued. By 1994, a shaky ceasefire had been agreed.

This remained in place, for the most part, until the second Nagorno Karabakh war in September 2020. At this time, Azerbaijan launched a major military operation to take back the territory lost to Armenia in the early 1990s. By November, a Russia-led diplomatic effort brought an end to the fighting. Azerbaijan had taken back most, but not all, of the territory it had lost to Armenia, which was decisively defeated on the battlefield.

By the end of 2020 more than 2,000 Russian peacekeepers were deployed to the remaining parts of Karabakh that remained under the control of the de facto Armenian authorities.

In September last year, fighting once again broke out, as a result of which Azerbaijan took back the remainder of Karabakh. Fearing a genocide, which in the end did not happen, tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians fled across the border to Armenia. Interestingly, the Russian peacekeepers sat idly by and did nothing during the brief period of fighting.

Fast forward almost a year and peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia is closer than it has ever been. Last month the two sides opened negotiations in Almaty, Kazakhstan, to reach a lasting resolution to their decades-old conflict. The talks were notable because, for once, there was no Russian, American, or European involvement.

So far those talks have yielded positive results. For example, Armenia returned to Azerbaijan four villages along the border that had remained uninhabited but controlled by Yerevan since the fighting in the 1990s. Even though many Armenians were unhappy with the move, it was an important gesture of peace by Yerevan.

Since the meeting in Almaty there has also been a more positive and optimistic tone in the rhetoric used by both sides when discussing the prospects for peace. But there are still some major issues that need to be resolved.

The first is the final delineation of the border between the two countries. The return of the four Azerbaijani villages last month was a step in the right direction but led to the delineation of only 13 km of the border. While large sections will be easy to delineate, hundreds of kilometers remain disputed.

The border delineation process is also affected by the status of four remaining enclaves: the Armenian enclave of Artsvashen inside Azerbaijan, and the Azerbaijani enclaves of Barkhudarly, Yukhari Askipara, and Karki inside Armenia.

These are all small parcels of land that were once inhabited by their respective ethnic groups but are now uninhabited and under the de facto control of the other side. How this situation will be resolved remains to be seen but the enclaves will likely feature prominently in future talks.

The second issue that needs to be addressed is the Zangazur Corridor. As part of the November 2020 ceasefire agreement, Armenia pledged to “guarantee the security of transport connections” between Azerbaijan and its autonomous Nakhchivan region, an exclave nestled between Iran, Armenia and Turkiye.

Three and a half years later, a transport corridor connecting these two parts of Azerbaijan, via Armenia’s Syunik province, is no closer to reality. This is a very serious matter for Azerbaijan. Such a transport corridor would allow Baku to avoid using Iranian territory and airspace to reach Nakhchivan, which is something it desperately desires due to a complicated relationship with Tehran.

Finally, there is the issue of perceived territorial claims in neighboring countries as referenced in Armenia’s Constitution. The preamble of the current version of the document references the “pan-national aspirations” of ethnic Armenians. It also specifically cites Armenia’s 1990 Declaration of Independence from the Soviet Union that called for the unification of Armenia and ethnic Armenians living in Azerbaijan’s Karabakh region. Understandably, Azerbaijan has never liked this wording and wants it changed.

A peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the reestablishment of diplomatic relations between Armenia and Turkiye that would likely follow, could have positive effects beyond the South Caucasus.

For example, in recent years there has been an increase in relations between the Gulf Cooperation Council and Central Asia. Peace in the South Caucasus, and new transit routes such as the Zangazur Corridor, could improve trade connections between the Gulf and Central Asia. This is especially true if Turkiye’s proposed Iraq Development Road, also known as the Dry Canal corridor, linking Iraq’s southern Gulf coast to Turkiye, can be completed.

If the proposed Gulf Railway, connecting the six GCC states, ever becomes a reality the possibilities are even greater. In theory, it would be possible to transport goods by rail from the Gulf to markets in Central Asia, via the Dry Canal corridor and the South Caucasus.

The best thing that could happen to the South Caucasus would be a normalization of relations between Armenia and its neighbors. It is likely that billions of dollars of foreign investment have been denied to the region as a result of the ongoing conflict. A peace deal could change this.

Furthermore, the South Caucasus is becoming increasingly important for transit on the Eurasian landmass. The establishment of diplomatic relations between Armenia and its neighbors would only enhance this.

There is a golden window of opportunity to bring some much-needed stability to the South Caucasus. Let us hope that 2024 is a year of peace in the region, the benefits of which would be felt far beyond.

• Luke Coffey is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. X: @LukeDCoffey

Intense fighting between the military and rebel forces in central Myanmar’s Mandalay region this week has displaced thousands of civilians from more than 10 villages, anti-junta fighters and residents said.

Fighting in Mandalay’s Madaya township began on;Tuesday;as part of the second round of “Operation 1027” – an anti-junta offensive launched in October by the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, or TNLA, along with two other ethnic armies that comprise the Three Brotherhood Alliance.

On Thursday, a member of the Madaya township defense force who took part in frontline fighting told Radio Free Asia that his group had captured the junta’s No. 1014 Air Defense Battalion in Madaya’s Myaing village.;

Madaya is about 32 km (20 miles) north of junta-controlled Mandalay, which is Myanmar’s second largest city.;

“They [the military] are conducting airstrikes, as we have seized their battalion,” said the defense force fighter who, like others interviewed for this report, spoke to RFA on condition of anonymity due to security concerns. “We took control of this battalion [on Wednesday].”

The Madaya township defense force is one of scores of anti-junta rebel groups that formed in response to the military’s Feb. 2021 coup and are collectively known as the People’s Defense Force, or PDF.;

In addition to local PDF groups, the Mandalay People’s Defense Force, the Danu People’s Liberation Army, and the Northern Shan State Alliance Army have joined the TNLA in this week’s offensive operations.

The air defense battalion in Madaya is;one of 26 military outposts that the TNLA said it had jointly seized;with PDF groups in Mandalay and the neighboring Shan state townships of Nawnghkio, Kyaukme and Mongmit over the past several days.;

The junta has yet to issue a statement related to the takeover of its battalion in Madaya. Attempts by RFA to contact junta spokesperson Major General Zaw Min Tun went unanswered Thursday.

Nonetheless, rebel scout groups reported Thursday that the military had tightened security at the entrance to Madaya township and dispatched reinforcements to the area from Mandalay.

Clashes in Mogoke

Amid the fighting, thousands of civilians have been forced to flee from more than 10 villages in the township, as fighting intensified near Gyin Myaing village, residents said. Many had escaped with “nothing except the clothes we were wearing,” one recounted.;

A volunteer assisting the displaced said that they are sheltering in “safe locations that airstrikes and artillery attacks cannot reach.”

Additionally, clashes are intensifying between the junta and joint forces of the TNLA and PDF in Mogoke township in an area known for its ruby mines, according to the TNLA and residents. Mogoke is about 200 km (120 miles) north of Mandalay.

The TNLA said Thursday that it had started an offensive against the military’s No. 148 Infantry Battalion, stationed in Mogoke’s Aye Pagoda.

A Mogoke resident told RFA that those who have not fled the fighting are sheltering in their homes.

“No one dares to go outside – it’s too dangerous,” he said, adding that the military is targeting the area with heavy artillery.

Another resident said that three Buddhist monks were killed by an artillery shell that hit a monastery Thursday night. It was unclear who launched the shell.

“The weapons fell without any active combat,” the resident said. “Moreover, it was far from the battlefield where the conflict occurred.”

Two other injured monks were sent to Mogoke township’s public hospital.

RFA attempted to contact Thein Htay, the junta’s Mandalay regional spokesperson, to gather further information about the incident, but received no response.

Weapons and ammo seized

On Friday, the TNLA announced it had seized about 380 large and small weapons during an attack on a military junta camp in Nawnghkio in Shan state near the Mandalay border.

Among the seized weapons were 81 mm and 60 mm heavy weapons, RPG-7s, machine guns and assault rifles.

Additionally, the TNLA confiscated mines, communication equipment, more than 50,000 rounds of small arms ammunition and more than 500 rounds of ammunition for RPGs and other heavy weapons.

The TNLA and their allies now control nearly all areas in the township, including government offices in Nawnghkio.

The military council has not issued any official statement on this situation. RFA attempted to contact Khun Thein Maung, the junta’s spokesperson for Shan state, but received no response. Also in Shan state, aid workers in Kyaukme township told RFA that they had buried 23 bodies since fighting began there on Tuesday, including those of six civilians killed by artillery fire.

An aid worker who took part in the burials said that corpses of junta soldiers were among the dead.

The junta has not released any news about the latest fighting in Shan state, and RFA was unable to contact Khun Thein Maung, the junta’s spokesperson and economic minister in the state, for additional information.

By Camille Elemia

The Philippine military warned the public on Friday against “an alarming surge” in disinformation efforts amid rising tensions with Beijing over the South China Sea.

Such efforts seek to erode public trust in the Philippine armed forces and government by aiming to “sow panic, divide our nation, and distract us from pressing issues that demand our collective attention,” military chief Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr. said in a;statement.;

Disinformation “[makes] us vulnerable to external challenges that threaten our national security and stability,” he said.;;

Brawner’s statement followed recent social media posts and messages alluding to the row between the two countries over their;contending territorial claims;in the South China Sea. The military did not identify the source of these posts and messages.

On Wednesday, the military released a screenshot of a June 23 social media post showing photos of an alleged massive shipment of U.S. military supplies to the Philippines.;

The military blurred the source of the Facebook post.

The post, captioned “Thousands of U.S. Ammunition and Weapons Flown to the Philippines,” had been shared nearly 150 times by Friday morning.;

“These images were actually taken during a U.S. aid delivery to Ukraine in 2022,” the Philippine military said.

It also pointed to another screenshot of a message which, according to the military, falsely claimed that the armed forces were on “red alert” and had received war equipment.;

The military said this claim was debunked, adding, “The military is currently not on red alert status.”

“We urge the public to verify sources and seek information from credible and official channels,” the military said.

Brawner’s statement came more than a week after a dramatic standoff at sea between the Chinese coast guard and Filipino navy personnel at Second Thomas (Ayungin) Shoal. 

The;June 17 incident, in which a Filipino sailor lost a finger, was the latest and most serious encounter between Manila and Beijing in the contested waters in recent months.

The Philippines runs regular resupply missions to the Sierra Madre, an old navy ship that serves as Manila’s military outpost in the contested waters near Mischief Reef, an artificial island where Beijing built a naval base in the 1990s.;

China has opposed the Philippines’ transportation of construction materials to refurbish the Sierra Madre.

In May, the Philippines said it was;investigating allegations;that China had violated wiretapping laws during an alleged phone conversation between a Chinese official and a senior Filipino military commander about military resupply missions to Ayungin.

China claims historical rights over most of the South China Sea. A landmark international arbitration ruling in 2016, in a case brought by Manila against Beijing, rejected those claims entirely.;

The Embassy of;Saudi Arabia in;Lebanon said on Saturday it was;closely following the developments of the current events in southern Lebanon, Saudi Press Agency reported.;

It stressed;its previous call to all Saudi citizens to avoid;travel to Lebanon, and urged;citizens there to leave Lebanese territory immediately.

The embassy said should they need to,;citizens must contact it in the event of any emergency.

The warning came as Iran on Saturday warned that “all Resistance Fronts,” a grouping of Iran and its regional allies, would confront Israel if it attacked;Lebanon.

The comment from Iran’s mission to New York came;with fears of a wider regional war involving Israel and Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah movement.

The two sides have engaged in near-daily exchanges of fire since the war in Gaza began.

Iran’s presidential election is destined for a runoff, after the results on Saturday showed no candidate had garnered over 50% of the votes.;

Masoud Pezeshkian and Saeed Jalili, the two candidates with the highest number of votes, will face off in a showdown;next Friday, July 5.

The spokesman for the Elections Headquarters announced the final results of yesterday’s presidential election, saying a total of 24,535,185 votes have been cast in the polls.

The voter turnout has accordingly stood at 39.92, as over 61,452,000 people were eligible to vote.

Pezeshkian has won 10,415,991 votes, equivalent to 42.45% of the ballots.

The runner-up, Jalili, has secured 38.61% of the votes with 9,473,298 ballots.

The two other candidates, namely Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and Mostafa Pourmohammadi, have garnered 13.78% and 0.84% of the votes, respectively.

The polls were held at around 59,000 polling stations across the country.

The election took place a year ahead of schedule, as Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi passed away in May.

A helicopter carrying President Raisi and his entourage crashed in northwestern mountainous forests on May 19, killing the president, Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, and six others.