Day: June 27, 2024

By Zhao Zhijiang

The current focus, emphasis, and approaches of policies in China have shifted towards what is known as “new productive forces”. To avoid policy diffusion and loss of focus, it is crucial for the country to ensure that policies are implemented in sectors and manufacturing that are genuinely reliable.

Many so-called new products and technologies are often short-lived phenomena. Therefore, policy concentration will be a vital focal point. According to ANBOUND’s founder Mr. Kung Chan, China’s economic situation is currently trending towards a state of shrinkage, which should not be viewed solely from an economic cycle perspective, nor can simple additions to policies resolve the issues. He believes that since the matter revolves around economic growth, the key lies in production. The immediate task for the Chinese policymakers is to identify focal points and develop industries that qualify as “new productive forces”, or else China may face risks of spending resources on unnecessary sectors.

What exactly is “new productive forces”?

From a manufacturing perspective, it not only refers to technological innovation but also achieves product upgrades and sustainable technological advancements. Only industries that meet these criteria can be termed as “new productive forces”. The essence of it lies in whether the product and its associated industry can withstand the test of time, maintain its product positioning, possess continuous technological upgrading capabilities, constantly innovate, and control the market through product updates and replacements.

It is worth noting that there is currently a directional issue in China’s public opinion, where any technology product related to high technology and innovation tends to be labeled as a “new productive force”, leading to the concept being abused. The Economic Daily criticizes this phenomenon, stating that “developing new productive forces must guard against blindly following trends”. Ignoring the development laws of industries and blindly chasing the current popular trends will only cause issues such as new redundant construction and over-production, which will certainly have negative impacts on local economic and social development, including debt. In fact, industries like photovoltaics and batteries obviously have technological shortcomings and face geopolitical risks, making them difficult to sustain and assume the responsibility of developing new productive forces.

Where then, does China’s true new productive forces lie? Chan believes that among numerous industries, electrical manufacturing and automobiles can be seen as important focal points for the development of new productive forces.

China is a major electrical manufacturing country with outstanding capabilities from design to production. Many products of well-known electrical brands abroad are actually “Made in China” through OEM manufacturing. More importantly, China has the sustainable technological upgrading capability in electrical equipment manufacturing. Despite being considered “common” technology, these capabilities enable continuous technological upgrades and replacements, thereby maintaining market dominance. Many industries that boast high technology cannot achieve this fundamental technological capability.

It is worth noting that electrical manufacturing is a broad category, and even during economic downturns, China’s electrical manufacturing sector remains strong. Chinese-produced products such as air conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators, etc., are still highly popular in overseas markets. According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs earlier this year, China’s exports of major household electrical appliances saw year-on-year increases. From January to December 2023, the cumulative export volumes were as follows: air conditioners reached 47.99 million units, a 4.6% increase year-on-year; refrigerators reached 67.13 million units, a 22.4% increase year-on-year; washing machines reached 28.79 million units, a 39.8% increase year-on-year; and LCD TVs reached 98.87 million units, a 7.5% increase year-on-year.

Even the notoriously difficult Japanese market has been dominated by Chinese home appliances, with approximately 70% of products originating from China. In the Japanese refrigerator market, Chinese manufacturers hold about 28% market share, which has doubled in the past decade. Especially in the mid-to-low price range segment, Chinese manufacturers are significantly advantaged in providing sufficient functionality at competitive prices. Undoubtedly, the country’s electrical manufacturing sector demonstrates strong resilience and competitiveness both domestically and internationally.

China’s automotive industry is also another major component of new productive forces.

As the center of the world’s new automotive forces, China’s technological progress is an objective reality. Technologically, it has the capability for continuous upgrades, continually launching annual models, similar to the development trajectory of Japanese and Korean automobiles in the past. For example, in terms of engine thermal efficiency, Chinese products previously ranged from approximately 33% to 35%, while engines from Toyota in Japan can achieve over 40%. Currently, engines from BYD and Geely have achieved maximum thermal efficiencies of 46%, resolving previous bottlenecks, thereby enabling significant strides in automotive manufacturing. Additionally, supporting facilities such as batteries and intelligent components are continuously breaking through technological bottlenecks and innovating.

China’s electric vehicles, constantly innovating, have already posed challenges to established European and American automakers. In short, the development of Chinese automotive manufacturing is becoming a growth pole, perfectly fitting the definition of new productive forces.

As things stand, China relies on the development of these two major industries to support its economic growth, reminiscent of the economic development history of Japan and South Korea. Both Japan and South Korea became global manufacturing powerhouses through the success of these two major industries.

According to ANBOUND’s essential assessment regarding China’s exit from shrinkage, it is challenging for China’s economic growth and industrial prosperity to rely solely on automotive manufacturing and consumer electronics, as Japan and South Korea did. However, given the current risk of shrinkage in the Chinese economy, it appears that to emerge from this predicament in the future, the country still needs to rely on production and manufacturing, and it still needs industry leaders.

It should be pointed out that without the ability for continuous technological updates and upgrades, innovations may remain merely inventions, with difficulty developing into actual industries, let alone fulfilling the role and value of productivity. In contrast, industries like electrical appliance manufacturing and automotive manufacturing truly possess the value and utility of productivity. Moreover, they are everyday consumer goods, unlike semiconductor chips, which are strategically sensitive and can easily lead to geopolitical friction. As long as trade disputes are properly managed, these industries are relatively stable. At the very least, the rise of China’s home appliances and automotive industries will contribute to the resurgence of “Made in China” and provide more time to address deeper economic development issues.

Final analysis conclusion:

The Chinese economy is currently experiencing a trend of shrinkage. In facing these challenges, the emphasis should be on cultivating authentic new productive forces and identifying industry leaders. Key industries like electrical appliance manufacturing and automotive manufacturing not only drive technological innovation but also sustainably renew products and operations. China can leverage these industries as pivotal points to address the current issues strategically.

• Zhijiang Zhao is a Research Fellow for Geopolitical Strategy programme at ANBOUND, an independent think tank.

YEREVAN (Azatutyun.am)—Armenia must change its constitution before it can sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov said on Thursday, reaffirming a precondition set by Baku.

Speaking during a visit to Georgia, Bayramov said the Armenian constitution contains territorial claims to Azerbaijan that represent “the most serious obstacle to concluding the peace process.” The two sides have significantly narrowed their differences on key terms of the treaty, he reportedly a joint news conference with his Georgian counterpart Ilia Darchiashvili.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev likewise stated on June 6 that Azerbaijan will not sign the peace deal unless Armenia changes its constitution. He demanded earlier that Yerevan specifically remove from the constitution a reference to a 1990 declaration of independence which in turn cites a 1989 unification act adopted by the legislative bodies of Soviet Armenia and the then Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast.

The Armenian Foreign Ministry responded by accusing Aliyev of “torpedoing the peace process.” It argued that one of the “agreed provisions” of a draft accord stipulates that the parties cannot use their domestic legislation for not complying with the document. Yerevan is ready to finalize and sign it within a month, added the ministry.

“I cannot say that we have seen a positive reaction of our Azerbaijani counterparts to this proposal to sign the peace treaty within a month,” Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan complained during a visit to Estonia on Thursday. The treaty has been “almost finalized” by the two sides, he said.

Last week, Mirzoyan’s ministry claimed that Azerbaijan may be planning to unleash a “new aggression” against Armenia after hosting the COP29 summit in November. It pointed to Baku’s angry reaction to the latest French-Armenian arms deal signed in Paris.

The post Baku Reasserts Armenian Constitution Change as Precondition for Peace Deal appeared first on Asbarez.com.

ANCA Welcomes resolution formally recognizing Azerbaijan’s ethnic cleansing of Artsakh, demanding accountability for Azerbaijan’s war crimes, and advocating for the right of Artsakh Armenians to a safe and secure return home

WASHINGTON – Representatives Anna Eshoo and Chris Smith have introduced a bipartisan resolution condemning Azerbaijan’s ethnic cleansing of Artsakh and urging the Biden Administration to take immediate action to hold Azerbaijan accountable for its genocidal aggression, reported the Armenian National Committee of America.

“The Azerbaijani assault on Nagorno-Karabakh last year brought about the destruction of the ethnic Armenian community that has called the region home for centuries. Azerbaijan’s actions meet every definition of ethnic cleansing and must be condemned as such,” said Congresswoman Anna Eshoo. “Our resolution establishes a clear record of the atrocities perpetrated against the Armenian people and outlines critical steps that the U.S. must take to pursue justice and accountability for these crimes.”

“The horrific atrocities and ethnic cleansing perpetrated by Azerbaijan against the Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh does not erase the Armenians’ right to live in their ancient homeland in peace and freedom and to practice their own faith, follow their own customs and speak their own language,” said Rep. Chris Smith, who chaired two congressional hearings last year on the plight of the Armenians. “Our bipartisan legislation urges the Biden administration to vigorously support the Armenians’ rights against the ongoing crimes of the Azerbaijani government under its ruthless dictator Ilham Aliyev.”

The resolution would recognize Azerbaijan’s forced displacement of Artsakh’s over 100,000 Armenians as an act of ethnic cleansing, and calls on the Administration to make a public determination to the same effect. Additionally, the resolution urges the United States to facilitate a just and lasting peace in the South Caucasus that secures the release of all ilegally detained Armenian prisoners of war and civilian captives – including Artsakh’s political leaders – and ensures the right of Armenians to return to their home with guarantees for their security.

“Having faced no material costs or consequences for its ethnic cleansing of Artsakh, Azerbaijan continues to threaten renewed violence to secure yet more unilateral concessions from Armenia,” remarked ANCA Executive Director Aram Hamparian. “A just and durable peace must start with accountability. We commend Representatives Eshoo and Smith for their bold leadership in condemning Azerbaijan’s genocidal aggression, urging the Biden Administration to take immediate action to ensure the release of Armenian prisoners and hostages, and pressing for the right of Artsakh’s Armenians to safely return to their homes under international protection.”

The ANCA has launched a nationwide action alert urging Armenian Americans and supporters to contact their U.S. Representative to cosponsor the Eshoo-Smith resolution.

Since its ethnic cleansing of Artsakh’s entire indigenous Armenian population last year, Azerbaijan has faced no meaningful costs for its genocidal aggression – despite assurances made by the Department of State that the U.S. would “not countenance any action to ethnically cleanse the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh.” Additionally, despite a commitment by Assistant Secretary of State James O’Brien ensuring “no business as usual” with Azerbaijan following its military assault on Artsakh, the United States has resumed high-level engagements with Baku in the absence of accountability.

In demanding immediate action to hold Azerbaijan accountable for its ethnic cleansing of Artsakh, the Eshoo-Smith resolution calls on the Biden Administration to impose targeted sanctions on Azerbaijani government officials complicit in human rights abuses and enforce statutory prohibitions on U.S. military assistance to Azerbaijan pursuant to Section 907 of the FREEDOM Support Act.

The post Reps. Eshoo and Smith Introduce Bipartisan Resolution Condemning Azerbaijan’s Ethnic Cleansing of Artsakh appeared first on Asbarez.com.

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There were no immediate details on what caused the breakup of the RESURS-P1 Russian Earth observation satellite, which Russia declared dead in 2022. 

U.S. Space Command, tracking the debris swarm, said there was no immediate threat to other satellites. 

The event took place about noon EDT (1600 GMT) Wednesday, Space Command said. It occurred in an orbit near the space station, prompting U.S. astronauts on board to shelter in their spacecraft for roughly an hour, NASA’s Space Station office said. 

Russian space agency Roscosmos, which operated the satellite, did not respond to a request for comment or publicly acknowledge the event on its social media channels. 

U.S. Space Command, which has a global network of space-tracking radars, said the satellite immediately created “over 100 pieces of trackable debris.” 

By Thursday afternoon, radars from U.S. space-tracking firm LeoLabs had detected at least 180 pieces, the company said.  

Large debris-generating events in orbit are rare but of increasing concern as space becomes crowded with satellite networks vital to everyday life on Earth, from broadband internet and communications to basic navigation services, as well as satellites no longer in use. 

The satellite’s breakup was at an altitude of roughly 355 km (220 miles) in low-Earth orbit, a popular region where thousands of small to large satellites operate, including SpaceX’s vast Starlink network and China’s station that houses three of its astronauts. 

“Due to the low orbit of this debris cloud, we estimate it’ll be weeks to months before the hazard has passed,” LeoLabs said in a statement to Reuters. 

The some 25,000 pieces of debris bigger than 10 cm (4 inches) in space caused by satellite explosions or collisions have raised concerns about the prospect of a Kessler effect — a phenomenon in which satellite collisions with debris can create a cascading field of more hazardous junk and exponentially increase crash risks. 

Russia sparked strong criticism from the U.S. and other Western countries in 2021 when it struck one of its defunct satellites in orbit with a ground-based anti-satellite (ASAT) missile launched from its Plesetsk rocket site. The blast, testing a weapon system ahead of Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, created thousands of pieces of orbital debris. 

In the roughly 88-minute window of RESURS-P1’s initial breakup, the Plesetsk site was one of many locations on Earth it passed over, but there was no immediate indication from airspace or maritime alerts that Russia had launched a missile to strike the satellite, space tracker and Harvard astronomer Jonathan McDowell said. 

“I find it hard to believe they would use such a big satellite as an ASAT target,” McDowell said. “But, with the Russians these days, who knows.” 

He and other analysts speculated the breakup more likely could have been caused by a problem with the satellite, such as leftover fuel onboard causing an explosion. 

What happens to old satellites?  

Dead satellites either remain in orbit until they descend into Earth’s atmosphere for a fiery demise years later, or in widely preferred — but less common — circumstances, they fly to a “graveyard orbit” some 36,000 km (22,400 miles) from Earth to lower the risk of crashing into active satellites. 

Roscosmos decommissioned RESURS-P1 over onboard equipment failures in 2021, announcing the decision the following year. The satellite has since appeared to be lowering its altitude through layers of other active satellites for an eventual atmospheric reentry. 

The six U.S. astronauts currently on the space station were alerted by NASA mission control in Houston late Wednesday evening to execute “safe haven” procedures, where each crew member rushes into the spacecraft they arrived in, in case an emergency departure is required. 

NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams boarded their Starliner spacecraft, the Boeing-built capsule that has been docked since June 6 in its first crewed test mission on the station. 

Three of the other U.S. astronauts and a Russian cosmonaut went into SpaceX’s Crew Dragon capsule that flew them to the station in March, while the sixth U.S. astronaut joined the two remaining cosmonauts in their Russian Soyuz capsule that ferried them there in September last year. 

The astronauts emerged from their spacecraft roughly an hour later and resumed their normal work on the station, NASA said. 

The prospects of satellite collisions and space warfare have added urgency to calls from space advocates and lawyers to have countries establish an international mechanism of managing space traffic, which does not currently exist.

By Alexandra Brzozowski, Aurélie Pugnet, Eliza Gkritsi, Max Griera and Thomas Moller-Nielsen

(EurActiv) — EU leaders on Thursday gave their political approval to a trio of names – Ursula von der Leyen, Antonio Costa, and Kaja Kallas – to lead the EU’s three major institutions over the next five years.

The EU’s top job ‘package deal’ includes a second term for incumbent European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen from centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), Portugal’s former Socialist prime minister;Antonio Costa;as European Council president, and Estonia’s Liberal Prime Minister;Kaja Kallas;as the EU’s new foreign policy chief, several EU diplomats confirmed.

It took roughly an hour for EU leaders to agree on a deal after Von der Leyen and Kallas left the room, people familiar with the negotiations said.

Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni abstained on Von der Leyen and voted against Costa and Kallas.

Meanwhile, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán voted against von der Leyen, in favour of Costa but abstained for Kallas, according to a diplomatic source.

Kallas, who left the meeting room since she was one of the candidates in the package, transferred her vote to Finnish counterpart Petteri Orpo, said people familiar with the discussions.;

In response to his appointment, Von der Leyen;said;she was “grateful” to EU leaders for endorsing her nomination for a second mandate.

Costa;said;he was “looking forward to working closely with them in a spirit of loyal cooperation between European institutions”.

“Your trust means a lot. We must continue working together to ensure Europe is an effective global partner to keep our citizens free, safe and prosperous,” Kallas;said;in reaction to her nomination.

“As HRVP, I will be at theservice of our common interests,” she added.

The leaders decision comes three weeks after the EU elections, where the centrist parties – Socialists, centre-right EPP, and Liberals — gained;the majority of seats, despite; big wins for the hard right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), and far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) parties.;

Von der Leyen’s nomination now requires approval by a simple majority vote in the European Parliament expected on Thursday (19 July).;

However, she may have a hard time gathering the 362 votes required for her confirmation. With members of the European parliament (MEP) from the EPP, Socialists, and Liberal political groups she could reach 399 votes, but only if no MEPs rebels against the deal.;

Not; all national delegations of these groups are guaranteed to back her. She may need to persuade the Greens and possibly some parts of ECR, that are considered more ‘moderate’ to guarantee her reelection.;

Should Von der Leyen fail to receive parliamentary approval next month, EU leaders will have one month to choose;a different candidate and re-start the process.;

Kallas who as the EU’s next chief diplomat, needs to face a set of public hearings starting end of September, when MEPs in the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs committee (AFET), and Security and Defence sub-committee (SEDE), will be able to grill her over her policy vision.;

Ultimately, the whole College of Commissioners, including Kallas, needs to be approved;en bloc,;by;a single vote. After long negotiations between the EU parliamentary political groups and Commissioners, have agreed on an EU specific work programme for the next five years.;

Costa is now considered president-elect and will take over the role on 1 December once incumbent Council chief Charles Michel steps down at the end of November.;

He is expected to stay in the role for 2.5 years, according to the EU treaties. Based on a gentlemen’s agreement, he would then possibly be re-elected for an extra term.;

By William Gallo

North Korea claimed progress Thursday on testing a missile meant to contain multiple warheads, an advanced weapon aimed at penetrating U.S. missile defenses.

According to the state-run Korean Central News Agency, North Korea “successfully conducted the separation and guidance control test of individual mobile warheads” during a Wednesday launch.

KCNA said the first stage engine of an intermediate-range solid-fuel ballistic missile carried the warheads, which “were guided correctly to the three coordinate targets.”

The test, which also included decoy warheads, was aimed at securing the capability for multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles, or MIRVs, KCNA added.

If confirmed, analysts say the development would mark significant progress toward North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s goal of developing a long-range missile with multiple warheads that could overwhelm U.S. missile defenses, which have limited interceptors.

An ‘exaggeration,’ says South

South Korea’s military initially reported the launch as a failure, noting it ended in a mid-air explosion during the early stages of its flight.

On Thursday, a spokesperson for South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff stuck by that assessment, dismissing the North Korean claim as a “deception and exaggeration.”

Whereas the warheads on such a missile typically separate in the descent stage, the JCS spokesperson said the North Korean missile exploded mid-air during an early stage of flight.

“A number of videos and photos taken by the private sector yesterday show that the missile’s flight was not normal,” he said.

South Korean broadcasters on Wednesday aired multiple videos showing an object that appeared to spin out of control before exploding and plunging toward earth. The videos were taken by residents in South Korea’s far northwestern islands.

Decker Eveleth, who studies North Korea’s strategic forces for the Center for Naval Analyses, said it is hard to determine the success of the launch with certainty, given the available public evidence.

“The stage was spinning at the end. Sometimes that’s an intentional maneuver and sometimes it’s not,” Eveleth told VOA.

Missile defense woes

North Korea has previously conducted tests of various MIRV components, including systems meant to aim multiple warheads. But the latest launch appears to have gone further, using multiple warheads as well as decoys, which aim to confuse missile defense shields.

The United States is currently protected, in theory, by a missile defense shield with 44 interceptors designed for ICBM missiles. That figure is set to expand to 64. Those numbers allow little room for error, even before factoring in missiles with multiple warheads, according to analysts.

With MIRVs, North Korea has a “much, much higher chance of overwhelming American missile defense,” Eveleth said.

“Many nuclear experts spent about a decade arguing that missile defense was not cost effective and the DPRK would simply outbuild the shield when they got a program rolling. These concerns were dismissed, largely because people did not think the DPRK was capable of a program of that scale. And here we are,” Eveleth told VOA.

By placing multiple warheads on a single missile, North Korea can also reduce the need for mobile missile launchers, or TELs, which it has had difficulty producing.

What’s next

North Korea’s launch represents the latest effort to work through a wish-list of strategic weapons laid out by Kim in 2021. The list also included hypersonic missiles, spy satellites, solid-fuel ICBMs, and submarine-launched missiles — all areas where North Korea has since made advances.

Kim says his nuclear weapons program is necessary to deter attacks from the United States, which has tens of thousands of troops in the region. He has also warned he could preemptively use nuclear weapons to counter what he says are hostile forces in the region.

Analysts are especially looking for any signs of Russian help with North Korean weapons. Earlier this month, Russia and North Korea signed a mutual defense treaty. After the signing, Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested the arrangement could help facilitate arms transfers.

On Thursday, a South Korean military spokesperson said it was difficult to determine whether the latest launch included any help from Russia.

Given that North Korea claimed only “fairly modest and technical” successes with its latest MIRV launch, more tests using such technology are likely, said Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at Washington’s Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“If their claims are true, I’d expect to see further iteration,” Panda said. “Even if this wasn’t a total success, I suspect the Missile Administration received useful data that’ll contribute to advancing their missile capabilities, including a MIRV capability.”

Lee Juhyun contributed to this report.

By Pelbar 

Chinese government authorities in a Tibetan-populated county of Sichuan province have shortened the duration of a key weeklong debate on Buddhist philosophy and reduced the number of monks who could attend the event, Tibetans with knowledge of the situation said.;

The annual Dhokham Jang Gunchoe, or Great Winter Debate Session, is a longstanding tradition of Tibet’s three monastic universities — Drepung, Gaden and Sera — and traditionally occurs in the eleventh month of the Tibetan calendar. It draws thousands of monks fromother Buddhist monasteries and colleges.

The event began on June 19 at Za Bhum Nyingma Monastery under tight restrictions in Sershul county in Kardze Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture in the province’s northwest.

Authorities shortened the two-week event, which enjoys popularity across Tibetan-populated regions, to one week and cut the number of monastic attendees to 3,200 from about 7,000, said one Tibetan source, who like others in the report declined to be named.

The restrictions are yet another example of how China has sought to control and limit religious activities in Tibet because authorities see Tibetan Buddhism as a threat to the sovereignty of the Chinese political state.

They also have set up police stations in or near monasteries, subjected monks and nuns to “patriotic re-education,” and kicked Buddhist clergy members out of Buddhist institutes.;

During the session, armed police were stationed at the Zabum Nyingma Monastery and patrolled the surrounding;mountains, while lay people visiting the monastery were held up at checkpoints, said the sources from inside and outside Tibet.;

Authorities also scrutinized monks and nuns attending the event to ensure they were free of political affiliations, they said.;

Because local authorities suddenly halted arrangements for Dhokham Jang Gunchoe in 2023, the monastery and its supporters petitioned provincial authorities;for permission to hold the session this year, said one of the sources.

They received permission, but authorities reduced the duration and the number of participants, citing security concerns, he said.;