Day: June 19, 2024

(RFE/RL) — Canada has listed Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist entity and advised any Canadians in Iran to leave the country.

Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc made the;announcement;on June 19 at a news conference in Ottawa, saying the decision to declare the IRGC as a terrorist organization is based on “very strong and convincing evidence.”

LeBlanc told reporters that Canada “uses all possible means to fight the terrorist acts of the IRGC.”

Foreign Minister Melanie Joly noted at the same news conference that Ottawa broke off diplomatic ties with Tehran several years ago. She urged Canadians against travel to Iran and said those in the country now should “come back home.”

The designation of the IRGC as a terrorist group has long been sought by Iranian expats and relatives of those killed on a flight brought down in January 2020 by Iranian forces shortly after takeoff from Tehran, killing all 176 passengers and crew, about half of them Canadians.

The Association of Families of Ukrainian Flight PS752 said in a;statement;on June 19 that it was grateful to the government for making the designation and to “all political parties, activists, and individuals who contributed to this achievement.”

The statement added that that the association is “also grateful to the brave people of Iran who have stood up against this oppressive organization and have continuously supported the families of the victims.”

The association also said it continues to insist on its other demands, including pursuing the case of the downed flight in the International Court of Justice and before other international courts.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government had been reluctant to designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization over concern that listing it as such would have unintended consequences that could inadvertently impact Iranians in Canada opposed to the regime.

Trudeau signaled the move earlier this year at a memorial service for the victims of the downed plane, saying that his government was looking for ways to add the IRGC to the list of terrorist organizations.

“We know there is more to do to hold the regime to account and we will continue our work, including continuing to look for ways to responsibly list the IRGC as a terrorist organization,” Trudeau said on January 8.

Once a group is placed on Canada’s terrorism list, police can charge anyone who financially or materially supports the group and banks can freeze assets.

Ottawa has previously listed the Quds Force, a branch of the IRGC, as a terrorist entity, and in 2022 permanently denied entry to more than 10,000 Iranian officials, including members of the IRGC.

Ottawa severed diplomatic relations with Tehran in 2012.

The United Nations human rights office says Israeli airstrikes on Gaza “may have repeatedly violated fundamental principles of the laws of war.”

A report released Wednesday examined six airstrikes conducted by the Israeli Defense Forces between October and December of last year during the opening weeks of the war in Gaza. More than 200 people were confirmed by the human rights office to have been killed in the airstrikes, whose targets included residential buildings, a school, a market and refugee camps.

U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk said it appeared Israel made no attempt to “effectively distinguish” between Palestinian civilians and Hamas fighters in its bombing campaign of Gaza.

“Civilian lives and infrastructure are protected” under international human rights law, Turk said. “This law lays out the very clear obligations of parties to armed conflicts that make protection of civilians a priority.”

The report said the six attacks involved the suspected use of heavy bombs between 113-kilograms and 907-kilograms.

The report also says continued missile attacks towards Israel by Palestinian armed groups is “inconsistent with their obligations under international humanitarian law.”

Health authorities in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip say more than 37,266 people have been killed and 85,102 have been injured since the start of the Israeli ground and aerial campaign that began soon after the October 7 Hamas terror attack on Israel, which killed 1,200 people and took more than 250 hostages, Israeli authorities say.

With the U.S. presidential election only four months away, the incumbent Joe Biden White House and the Democrat Party are getting desperate. They can’t seem to close the gap in poll numbers showing Republican rival Donald Trump having a strong chance of regaining the presidency.

Such is the political crisis in the United States from voter indifference to both candidates that anything could happen. With Trump threatening a “bloodbath” if he loses in November, the prospect of national chaos either way is looming.

An increasingly frail Biden is;calling;on Hollywood A-listers to boost his flagging campaign. A recent $30 million fundraiser by Tinseltown big names including Julia Roberts and George Clooney warned of the “scariest” outcome if Trump were returned to the White House.

What’s of concern to the political and media establishment – which largely votes Democrat – is that Trump’s popularity seems immune to damage from scandal and legal prosecutions for financial corruption. His fundraising is also set to grow more robustly after the Republican Congressional leaders put aside any misgivings to bless his campaign.

The high stakes may explain the “big news”;crackdown;on alleged corruption by the chief financial executive at the conservative news outlet, The Epoch Times.

Its Chief Financial Officer Weidong “Bill” Guan is in court this week facing federal;charges;for money laundering and bank fraud to the tune of $67 million. Guan denies the charges but if convicted he is facing a 20-30 year stretch in jail.

The Epoch Times is a major;supporter;of “The Donald”. The weekly newspaper is published in 35 countries and 22 languages. It was founded 25 years ago and is affiliated with the Falun Gong movement, a secretive quasi-Buddhist religion that claims to have millions of followers in the U.S. and worldwide. The spiritual leader is China-born multimillionaire Li Hongzhi who lives in exile. Falun Gong is banned in China by the Chinese government which accuses it of cult practices and extortion of followers.

Following the arrest of Bill Guan by U.S. authorities earlier this month, the Falun Gong leader wrote two articles for Epoch Times, denouncing shady practices and partisan politics. The newspaper has denied any wrongdoing and has suspended its chief financial officer pending the outcome of the fraud trial.

The New York-based Epoch Times has been a useful proxy for U.S. governments since its foundation in 2000 following the exile of Li Hongzhi from China to the United States where “he found his American Dream”,;according to;the Wall Street Journal. Apart from its zany content which borders on superstition and sensationalism, the upside for the U.S. establishment is the publication is vehemently hostile towards the People’s Republic of China in its editorial line. It reflects the “anti-communist” views of the Falun Gong leader and in that way can be seen as a useful propaganda tool for Washington to drum up “anti-China” sentiments.

However, during the last Trump administration, The Epoch Times adopted a stridently pro-Trump line. It ran;stories;popular among the MAGA movement such as the Covid-19 virus being a plot by the Chinese Communist Party to destroy the United States, as well as QAnon conspiracy claims about Satanic corruption among the U.S. establishment.

When Trump lost in 2020 to Biden, the paper promoted the false claims that the election was “stolen” by Democrat-orchestrated voter fraud. Many Republican voters still believe that their man was cheated out of a second consecutive term by the deep state.

Nailing its editorial colors to the Trump electoral mast was a profitable move for The Epoch Times. Under the stewardship of Bill Guan – a protégé of Falun Gong guru Li Hongzhi – the media group’s revenues skyrocketed from $4 million a year to over $120 million. The Department of Justice;indictment;alleges that Guan raked in the proceeds through fundraising online scams using cryptocurrency and personal identity theft.

The association of Trump’s campaign with an alleged massive fraud operation run by a media group that can be easily painted as a weird cultist whack job seems to be the latest effort by the Democrat-supporting political establishment to tip the scales in favor of Biden.

There has been widespread American corporate media coverage of the fraud scandal implicating The Epoch Times and its Falun Gong network. The Washington Post, New York Times, CNN, and CNBC, among others, have been having a field day on the subject.

It appears odd that the U.S. establishment, which has indulged the Falun Gong movement and its anti-China news outlet for so many years, should abruptly ramp up negative coverage.

But bear in mind that Biden’s campaign is in deep trouble. His administration’s embroilment in the Gaza genocide perpetrated by the Israeli regime has earned bitter recrimination from Democrat voters and students who would have normally voted for Biden.

Another worry for the Democrat Party is Biden’s increasingly obvious physical and mental frailty. Even pro-Democrat media are openly commenting on how Biden’s mental health is failing as he stumbles from one public gaff or misstep to another. There is a sense of dread that when Trump and Biden go head to head in a live TV debate later this month, the incumbent president will be made look decrepit and unfit for office.

The Democrat campaign is amplifying attention on Trump’s conviction for fraud over hush payments to porn actress Stormy Daniels and his other forthcoming court trial over abuse of classified documents. It’s also talking up Trump’s dodgy financial accounts and business dealings as a former real estate magnate.

The scandal at The Epoch Times and allegations of defrauding millions of Americans through money laundering comes at a time when the Biden campaign needs all the help it can get to pile the dirt on Trump.

A legal crackdown on the newspaper’s financial dealings seems long overdue. Banks and tax authorities were flagging suspicious accounts from at least 2021,;according toreports. Former employers of The Epoch Times have also;commented;publicly on the surprising delay in investigating the media outlet and its fundraising operations.

It seems strange that federal indictments are being brought now with much-hyped media coverage if the case were assessed merely on legal concerns about finances.

If the intensity of politics is factored though and the U.S. establishment’s fears that Trump might just pull off a spectacular reelection – with all the chaos that such a return to the White House will elicit – then digging up dirt using a money-laundering scandal makes perfect sense. Muzzling a pro-Trump media outlet is a bonus too.

The petrodollar system, the bedrock of global finance since the 1970s, faces an uncertain future. The recent expiration of the U.S.-Saudi petrodollar pact in June 2024 marks a turning point, prompting a reassessment of the dollar’s role in oil trade and the broader geopolitical landscape. This article delves beyond the narrative of a simple decline, exploring the complex interplay of factors driving a potential transition towards a multipolar financial order.;

Beyond the Cracks: Structural Shifts and Geopolitical Tensions

While the waning U.S. dominance in oil production and the strained U.S.-Saudi relationship are significant factors, a deeper analysis reveals a more nuanced picture. The rise of unconventional oil and gas extraction methods like shale fracking in the U.S. has disrupted traditional supply chains. This, coupled with growing environmental concerns and the pursuit of energy independence by major economies, has led to a decrease in global dependence on OPEC oil. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a peak in oil demand by 2027, followed by a gradual decline as renewable energy sources gain traction.;

Furthermore, the petrodollar’s vulnerabilities are amplified by the increasing influence of alternative payment systems. China’s ongoing efforts to internationalize the yuan, the creation of regional payment networks like the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System, and the burgeoning popularity of cryptocurrencies like petro (Venezuela) all challenge the dollar’s hegemony. While the current use of cryptocurrencies in oil transactions remains limited, their potential volatility and regulatory uncertainties hinder widespread adoption. However, the underlying technology of blockchain could influence future payment systems for commodities like oil.;

The Rise of the Multipolar Order: A Fragile Balance

The decline of the petrodollar doesn’t necessarily translate to a single-currency replacement. A more likely scenario is the emergence of a multipolar financial order, where oil is priced and traded in a basket of currencies reflecting the evolving power dynamics.;

China, the world’s largest oil importer, is actively pursuing this path. The Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) has launched yuan-denominated oil futures contracts, attracting participation from major producers like Russia and Iran. This strategy aims to not only bolster the yuan’s international standing but also establish China as a key player in the global energy market. Additionally, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) seeks to create a vast infrastructure network connecting Asia, Europe, and Africa, potentially creating a yuan-denominated trade bloc for oil and other commodities.;

However, navigating a multipolar system presents its own challenges. Balancing the interests of diverse stakeholders with potentially conflicting agendas will be crucial. For instance, Russia, a major oil producer with strained relations with the West, may prioritize alternative pricing mechanisms that challenge U.S. dominance. Additionally, the lack of a single dominant currency could lead to increased market volatility, impacting both oil producers and consumers. Producers may face difficulties in budgeting and planning investments due to exchange rate fluctuations. Consumers, on the other hand, could be exposed to higher energy prices as a result of short-term market gyrations.;

The U.S.: Adapting to a New Reality

The Biden administration has acknowledged the changing landscape and is actively pursuing strategies to maintain the dollar’s relevance. These include:;

• Renewed focus on clean energy:;Investments in renewable energy development and research can help the U.S. position itself as a leader in the transition towards a low-carbon future. This not only reduces dependence on imported oil but also creates new economic opportunities in clean energy technologies. The recently passed Inflation Reduction Act allocates significant funding towards clean energy initiatives, signaling a commitment to this strategy.;

• Strengthening alliances:;Building stronger economic and political ties with key oil producers outside of the Middle East, such as African nations with growing reserves, could diversify U.S. energy partnerships. This could potentially lead to oil being priced in a basket of currencies reflecting the contributions of these new partners.;

• Embracing financial innovation:;The U.S. Federal Reserve and financial institutions are exploring the potential of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) to maintain the dollar’s competitive edge in the evolving digital payments landscape. A CBDC could offer a secure and efficient alternative to traditional payment systems, potentially enticing foreign entities to continue using the dollar for oil transactions.;

The success of these strategies will depend on the U.S.’s ability to adapt to a world where oil no longer reigns supreme and to demonstrate its continued value as a reliable economic and political partner.;

The Road Ahead: Scenarios and Implications

The trajectory of the petrodollar system remains uncertain, with several potential scenarios unfolding:;

• A Gradual Shift:;A slow move away from dollar dominance, with a basket of currencies used for oil pricing, alongside the continued use of the dollar in some transactions. This scenario would likely lead to increased volatility in the short term but could stabilize in the long run. The success of this scenario would depend on international cooperation and the ability of major oil producers and consumers to agree on a transparent and stable pricing mechanism.;

• A Regionalized System:;The emergence of regional blocs like BRICS establishing their own oil pricing mechanisms, potentially undermining the dollar’s global influence. This could fragment global energy markets and complicate trade flows. For instance, a BRICS-led oil pricing mechanism could be denominated in a basket of currencies like the yuan, rupee, and ruble, primarily used for transactions within the bloc. This scenario would create challenges for countries outside these blocs, potentially leading to higher energy prices and increased geopolitical tensions.;

• A Black Swan Event:;An unforeseen event, like a major geopolitical crisis or a breakthrough in clean energy technology, could drastically accelerate the decline of the petrodollar. This scenario would be the most disruptive, leading to significant economic and political instability. For instance, a major conflict in the Middle East disrupting oil supplies could trigger a global energy crisis, forcing a rapid shift away from the dollar-denominated oil trade.;

Implications of a Changing Petrodollar System

The implications of a changing petrodollar system are far-reaching. A decline in the dollar’s dominance could lead to:;

• Higher borrowing costs:;The U.S. government and businesses may face higher interest rates as investors seek alternative safe-haven currencies. This could slow down economic growth and potentially lead to fiscal challenges.;

• Shifting geopolitical power:;A weakened dollar could translate into diminished U.S. influence on international financial institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. This could lead to a more multipolar world order with new power centers emerging.;

• Increased market volatility:;A transition period with no clear dominant currency could create uncertainty and instability in global energy markets. This could lead to price fluctuations that impact both producers and consumers.;

• Reshaping of Global Trade:;The decline of the petrodollar system could lead to a diversification of global trade patterns. Countries may prioritize trade deals with partners offering alternative currencies for oil transactions.;

Conclusion: Navigating a New Era

The petrodollar system’s decline is not a sudden collapse, but rather a complex transformation driven by a confluence of economic, technological, and geopolitical factors. The road ahead is paved with uncertainty, with the potential for a gradual shift, a regionalized system, or even a more disruptive scenario. The success of the transition will depend on the ability of major players to adapt, cooperate, and innovate.;

The U.S. needs to focus on clean energy development, strengthen strategic alliances, and embrace financial innovation to maintain its economic and geopolitical influence. Meanwhile, countries like China are actively positioning themselves to play a larger role in the global energy market. The coming years will likely see a period of experimentation and negotiation as new pricing mechanisms and trade partnerships emerge. This transition presents both challenges and opportunities, with the potential to reshape the global financial landscape and redefine the balance of power in the international arena.