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The election of the next president of the United States will be held this November. If he wins another term, Joe Biden’s;policy;on Africa is predictable because he has followed a consistent policy and is unlikely to deviate significantly from that course in the next four years. But, what would Africa policy look like in a second Trump presidential term?
Based on the;Project 2025 report;prepared by a number of major right-wing think tanks and lobbying organizations under the leadership of the Heritage Foundation—along with statements made by leading Republican foreign policymakers and information from the media—the Africa policy that Donald Trump is likely to follow if he wins is also clear.
In the view of Donald Trump and his supporters, many of Trump’s foreign policy initiatives during his presidency were sabotaged by civil servants and disloyal Trump appointees who delayed or obstructed his decisions and plans. So, to ensure the implementation of the “America First” foreign policy agenda in Trump’s second term, the Heritage Foundation and other organizations involved in Project 2025 and Trump’s advisors are currently recruiting and vetting dependable, obedient right-wing applicants to install as soon as Trump takes office in 2025.
This will end the tradition of political neutrality for personnel working in executive departments and federal agencies, and amount to a purge of all personnel who won’t pledge to do whatever Trump demands, however ill-advised, illegal, or unconstitutional it may be.
According to the Project 2025 report and other sources, Trump’s foreign policy agenda for Africa calls for radical changes in U.S. national security policy toward Africa. To begin with, it;argues;that it is in the U.S. national interest to increase U.S. reliance on working with the French in North Africa to lead counter-terrorism operations and to counter the military and political involvement of Russia in the region and throughout the rest of the continent. “In North Africa,” the report states, “security cooperation with European allies, especially France, will be vital to limit growing Islamist threats and the incursion of Russian influence through positionings of the Wagner Group.”
The report also;calls;for the United States to convert all foreign aid grants for African recipients into loans and eliminate all development assistance programs, along the lines endorsed by Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) in February 2024. According to the report, the United States should “shift strategic focus from assistance to growth” and “reorient the focus of U.S. overseas development assistance away from stand-alone humanitarian development aid and toward fostering U.S. private sector engagement” in Africa. “While the United States should always be willing to offer emergency and humanitarian relief,” the report goes on to say, “both U.S. and African long-term interests are better served by a free market-based, private growth-focused strategy to Africa’s economic challenges.”
At the same time, the report;maintains;that the United States should increase funding for military and security operations by African allies by providing more military education, training, and security assistance, because this is necessary to protect American lives at home and abroad and to protect U.S. companies, targets, and interests in Africa.
According to the report, “African country-based terrorist groups like Boko Haram may currently lack the capability to attack the United States, but at least some of them would eventually try if allowed to consolidate their operations and plan such attacks.; The immediate threat they pose lies in their abilities and willingness to strike American targets in their regions of operation or to harm US interests in other ways.” Therefore, “the U.S. should support capable African military and security operations through the State Department and other federal agencies responsible for granting foreign military education, training, and security assistance.”
The report;says;that the United States should focus its attention on just a few countries.; “Rather than thinning limited funds across all countries (including some that are unsupportive or even hostile to the United States) the next Administration should focus on those countries with which the US can expect a mutually beneficial relationship” and “after being designated focus countries by the State Department, such nations should receive a full suite of American engagement.”
The report;declares;that the United Staters should “stop promoting policies birthed in the American culture wars” and stop pressing African governments to respect the rule of law, human rights/LGBT+ rights, political and civil rights, democracy, and women’s rights, especially abortion rights. “African nations are particularly (and reasonably) non-receptive to the US social policies such as abortion and pro-LGBT initiatives being imposed on them,” by the United States, the report declares. Therefore, “the United States should focus on core security, economic, and human rights engagement with African partners and reject the promotion of divisive policies that hurt the deepening of shared goals between the US and its African partners.”
The report;contends;that the United States must “counter malign Chinese activity on the continent.” In particular, the report insists that the United States should “focus on supporting American companies involved in industries important to US national interests or that have a competitive advantage in Africa.” In its most notable specific recommendation, the report insists on the “recognition of Somaliland statehood as a hedge against the US’s deteriorating position in Djibouti.” This indicates that the next Trump administration will support Ethiopia, which has just signed an agreement with Somaliland to gain access to naval and commercial facilities on its coast in exchange for a promise to recognize it as an independent, sovereign state, against Somalia, Eritrea, and Egypt if this lead to war in the Horn of Africa, as seems likely.
Trump may not be particularly interested in what he once called the “shithole countries” of Africa, but his foreign policy advisors are clearly determined to implement these policies and recommendations if he wins a second term. Analysts sought to paint as positive a picture as they could of Trump’s Africa policy during his first term, praising in particular the “Prosper Africa” initiative to promote US trade and investment. But even they concede that, as John Campbell of the Council on Foreign Relations, put it, Trump, “does not appear to be personally involved in this initiative nor other aspects of US-Africa policy.” And, Campbell admits, “Congress has proven a bulwark against proposals by Trump’s Office of Management and Budget for massive cuts to foreign assistance,” and “had those been implemented, traditional US policies with respect to health, democracy promotion, and security assistance in Africa would have been eviscerated.” This time around, Trump’s foreign policy advisors are going to make sure that Africa gets the Trump administration’s full attention.
The authorities in Rwanda have cracked down on the opposition, media, and civil society ahead of general elections scheduled for July 15, 2024, Human Rights Watch said. The authorities should ensure that all Rwandans are able to freely express their views and exercise their vote fairly and peacefully and release people arbitrarily detained, including on politically motivated grounds.
Fourteen members of the unregistered Dalfa-Umurinzi opposition party and four journalists and critics are behind bars. Several are awaiting trial – some have been in pretrial detention for more than two years – and others have been convicted of offenses incompatible with international human rights norms. Since the country’s last presidential election in 2017, at least five opposition members and four critics and journalists have died or disappeared in suspicious circumstances.
“The threat of physical harm, arbitrary judicial proceedings, and long prison sentences, which can often lead to torture, have effectively deterred many Rwandans from engaging in opposition activities and demanding accountability from their political leaders,” said Clémentine de Montjoye, senior researcher in the Africa division at Human Rights Watch. “The authorities should end arbitrary detentions and guarantee the rights to freedom of expression, association, and peaceful assembly, essential to genuinely free and fair elections.”
Three candidates are;running for president: the incumbent president Paul Kagame (Rwandan Patriotic Front, RPF); Frank Habineza (Democratic Green Party of Rwanda, DGPR); and an independent candidate, Philippe Mpayimana. In 2017, when the same candidates were registered, both Habineza and Mpayimana said they experienced harassment,;threats, and intimidation after announcing their candidacy. Mpayimana won 0.73 percent of the votes and Habineza won 0.48 percent.
During President Kagame’s decades in power, government authorities have committed numerous human rights violations against political opposition members, journalists, and other critics, including arbitrary arrests, torture, and ill-treatment, and infringed the rights to freedom of expression and association.;Suspicious deaths;and;disappearances, for which justice is rarely if ever delivered, have also created an environment in which many fear they will be targeted if they speak out. Most registered political parties have been broadly supportive of the ruling RPF.
The electoral commission barred Diane Rwigara, the leader of the People Salvation Movement (PSM),;from running;in the 2024 election, alleging that she had not submitted the correct documentation to support her candidacy. Rwigara was arrested after the 2017 election – from which she was also disqualified – together with her mother, Adeline.;They were both released;on bail in October 2018 and;later acquitted;on charges of inciting insurrection and, in the case of Diane Rwigara, forgery and counterfeiting documents. Human Rights Watch;found;that both sets of charges appeared to have been politically motivated.
Victoire Ingabire’s Development and Liberty for All (Développement et Liberté pour tous, also known as Dalfa-Umurinzi) has been prevented from registering. Dalfa-Umurinzi, formerly known as the Forces démocratiques unifiées (FDU)-Inkingi, has faced serious challenges since 2010. The party has not been allowed to register or take part in elections and its members have been arrested, jailed, and harassed repeatedly. Since 2017, five members of the party have;died;or;disappeared;in suspicious circumstances.
Ingabire, the party’s president, was sentenced to 15 years for inciting insurrection, after she tried to run in the 2010 presidential elections. She served eight years before;her;release;in September 2018, when Kagame pardoned more than 2,000 prisoners. In March 2024, a Kigali court rejected Ingabire’s;request to allow her to run;in the 2024 presidential election.
Christopher Kayumba, the former editor of;The Chronicles;newspaper, was;arrested;in 2021 shortly after establishing a new political party, the Rwandese Platform for Democracy (RPD). He was acquitted of rape and “sexual misconduct” charges and released in February 2023. However, in November 2023, Kayumba was;convicted on appeal;and given a two-year suspended sentence. Kayumba previously;claimed;that government officials had threatened to “destroy” him criminally if he did not cease his political activities.
Rwandan elections law states that only “person[s] of integrity” can become candidates, barring anyone from running who has been convicted of “divisionism,” “genocide or genocide ideology,” or any other crime that carries more than a six-month sentence.
Among the 14 members of Ingabire’s party behind bars are;8 who have been held in pretrial detention;since October or December 2021. Another;disappeared in prison. Human Rights Watch has monitored trials of opposition members and others during which the accused told the court that interrogators had tortured them to coerce confessions.
Rwandan civil society is weak, due to;many years of state intimidation and interference, leaving Rwandan human rights organizations largely unable to publicly document violations by state agents. Foreign researchers and journalists have been blocked from entering the country, including a Human Rights Watch senior researcher;who attempted to travel to Kigali;for meetings in May 2024.
A;draft bill, that;has been reviewed by parliament, could place strict limits on the operations and activities of civil society.;In its current form, the draft law gives the government the authority to deny registration of organizations and to restrict operations of groups that “commit acts that jeopardize the unity of Rwandans, peace and security, public order and public health, good morals and conduct, political activities or freedom and fundamental rights of others.” The bill would give oversight and decision-making authority over an organization’s finances and activities to a government body. The draft law comes after a ministerial order was passed in 2022, placing similar restrictions on the work of trade unions.
While some private radio stations occasionally broadcast programs on politically sensitive issues, official government views dominate the domestic media and almost all election coverage. Several journalists;have diedor;disappeared;in suspicious circumstance since 2017, while others have fled the country. Journalists using YouTube as a platform have also been;targeted for prosecution;for not registering with the Rwanda Media Commission or for;publishing information that contradicts;the government’s version of certain events, such as the;suspicious;death in custody;of Kizito Mihigo, a gospel singer and activist, or;disappearances;of government opponents.
On April 3, United Nations experts on arbitrary detention, freedom of expression, physical and mental health, human rights defenders, and torture;wrote to the Rwandan government;to raise the cases of two journalists, Dieudonné Niyonsenga and Théoneste Nsengimana, and a Dalfa-Umurinzi member, Théophile Ntirutwa, who are all behind bars.;
The experts raised concerns that the prosecution and detention of the three appeared to be directly related to their work as journalists, human rights defenders, and in the case of Ntirutwa, to his views as an outspoken critic of the government. On June 3, Nsengimana’s wife;reported she was unable to visit him;in detention. Human Rights Watch was not able to independently confirm the circumstances of or reason for the denial of visitation rights.
The constitution,;revised in 2015, limits presidential terms to five years, renewable only once, after a transitional seven-year term starting in 2017. It also reset the clock on presidential terms already served. It allowed Kagame to;run for a third seven-year term in 2017;and allows him to run for two five-year terms, in 2024 and 2029, opening the possibility of extending his rule until 2034.
“Rwanda’s president and senior officials, including in the judiciary, should urgently and publicly condemn abuse and release all those detained for exercising their basic freedoms,” de Montjoye said. “There is still time for Rwanda to change course and allow political opponents to freely criticize the government’s policies and offer new ideas.”