Day: June 15, 2024

On Sunday, June 2, in the Mexican presidential elections, the victory was decisively won by the left-wing Morena (National Regeneration Movement) candidate, Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, who was also chosen as the successor to the current colorful president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO). Sheinbaum garnered 59.7% of the votes, the runner-up candidate of the right-wing National Action Party, Xóchitl Gálvez, received 27.4% of the votes, while the third place was taken by the Citizen Movement candidate, Jorge Máynez.

Sheinbaum will be the first woman to hold the position of President of Mexico (also the first in North America) and the candidate who has received the most votes in Mexican electoral history. She received a staggering 35.9 million votes, whereas for comparison, in 2018, her political mentor, the mega-popular López Obrador, won 30.1 million votes. This is not surprising given that the Mexican population is constantly growing (129 million), and so is the number of eligible voters (98 million). Sheinbaum is elected for a six-year term (sexenio) with no right to re-election. This is a constitutional legacy of the Mexican Revolution, according to which even temporary presidents do not have the right to re-election. She will live in the National Palace, just as AMLO did when he moved the president’s residence from Los Pinos Palace. Sheinbaum will be the first person of Jewish descent to lead the predominantly Roman Catholic United Mexican States.

Electoral Domination of the Left

Simultaneously, on June 2, elections were held for both houses of the Mexican Congress and local elections. Morena won, securing 57 seats in the Senate (65 are needed for a majority), while in the House of Representatives, Morena won 202 seats out of the needed 251. In the local elections for state governors, Morena candidates won in six out of eight gubernatorial elections (Chiapas, Morelos, Puebla, Tabasco, Veracruz, and Yucatán), and they also won the mayoralty in the capital, Mexico City/Ciudad de México, which will be held by Clara Brugada. In Guanajuato, the victory was taken by the right-wing coalition candidate, Libia García Muñoz Ledo, and in Jalisco, the Citizen Movement candidate, Pablo Lemus Navarro, won. Morena and its allies, the Labor Party (PT) and the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM), will govern in 24 out of 32 Mexican states.

It is evident that Mexico will be under leftist rule for the next six years unless there is a conflict within their ranks, which is not impossible given the unpredictability of Latin America. This is a great success for López Obrador, as he founded Morena only about a decade ago. Morena’s victory in the elections is the result of successful policies by AMLO, such as reducing poverty and social inequality, increasing social benefits, creating new jobs, and real wage growth. The unique charismatic public appearances of the unconventional president also contributed. The new Congress will be convened on September 1, and the new president will take office on October 1.

Sheinbaum’s Political Rise

Before being elected president, Claudia Sheinbaum was recognized as the first woman to serve as mayor of Mexico City. She was born on June 24, 1962, in the same city. She grew up in a family of academics and scientists, which shaped her approach to politics and public service. She graduated in physics from the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) and later earned a PhD in energy engineering from the same university. Her academic career included research and teaching, with a particular focus on environmental and sustainable development issues. She also worked as a researcher for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007. She has written over 100 articles and two books on energy, the environment, and sustainable development.

Sheinbaum began her political career as a member of the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) but later switched to Morena, the party founded by AMLO in 2011. Her political career started in the local government of Mexico City, where she served as the environment secretary when López Obrador was mayor. She was the mayor of the largest district in Mexico City, Tlalpan, from 2015 to 2017. In 2018, she was elected mayor of Mexico City, becoming the first woman in that position in the city’s history. Her term (December 2018 – June 2023) was marked by a series of reforms aimed at improving public transportation, reducing pollution, and enhancing security. She was proactive in combating gender violence and advocating for women’s rights.

Sheinbaum introduced numerous changes and innovations, including projects to improve energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy sources. Under her leadership, Mexico City became one of the leading cities in Latin America in implementing sustainable urban solutions. Cash distribution programs in Mexico City were better allocated to the poorest compared to the rest of the country. Scholarships were awarded to children and students. However, her term was not without challenges. She faced criticism for the rise in violence and insecurity in the city, as well as for managing the coronavirus pandemic.

Despite these challenges, Sheinbaum managed to maintain a high level of support among citizens, thanks to her determined leadership and transparent approach to city management. During the pandemic, while the federal government downplayed the importance of coronavirus testing, Mexico City expanded its testing regime and implemented stricter quarantine measures, even though the president did not prefer stricter measures to avoid harming the economy. She publicly wore a mask while the president did not. This illustrates the vivid difference between the two politicians. Sheinbaum leans more towards science, while López Obrador leans towards populism.

Election Campaign

During the campaign, Sheinbaum used the slogan “continuity with change” to emphasize her commitment to AMLO’s policies with certain changes. She promised to promote renewable energy sources while maintaining the primacy of state energy companies in the economy. She also emphasized that there would be no new permits for oil exploration after the López Obrador government halted them. Five main areas of her security strategy were: addressing the social causes of insecurity, strengthening the National Guard, enhancing the state’s capacity for investigation and intelligence gathering, improving coordination between state police and the prosecutor’s office, and reforming the judicial system. In other words, while Sheinbaum pledged to address the structural causes of crime.

Sheinbaum will not have an easy task as Mexico is ravaged by widespread crime by drug cartels, a migrant crisis, and the challenges of climate change. She will take office during one of the most violent periods Mexico has ever experienced. Under López Obrador, the military has been deployed across the country to combat cartels and enforce law and order. Despite the militarization, many parts of the country still experience violence from criminal groups. To strengthen national security and prevent murders, femicides, kidnappings, extortion, the government will need to bolster the police and judicial system.

Potential Domestic Policy

Regarding domestic policy, Sheinbaum will continue AMLO’s sovereignty policies with an emphasis on environmental protection and renewable energy sources, insisting on the rule of law. She could push for green policies in Mexico and attract foreign investors who invest in sustainable development projects. This is logical to assume given her scientific renown. As a critic of economic neoliberalism, Sheinbaum will likely continue to pursue fiscally responsible policies, reduce the state budget deficit, respect the autonomy of Mexico’s central bank, the Bank of Mexico, and maintain a stable exchange rate of the Mexican peso against the US dollar. Maintaining a stable exchange rate will be a challenge given the expected constitutional reforms of the electoral and judicial systems.

She is expected to continue López Obrador’s energy sovereignty policy. She will continue to strengthen the state oil company Pemex and the state electricity company CFE to make Mexico energy independent. Sheinbaum has supported major Pemex refinery projects – two cokers under construction and the launch of the long-delayed Olmeca refinery, which would process 340,000 barrels of oil per day, in line with López Obrador’s goal to reduce fuel imports. Overall, she supports a welfare economy that includes universal pensions and higher wages. As a feminist, she supports progressive policies such as the right to abortion, gender equality, and the LGBT agenda.

Potential Foreign Policy

Regarding foreign policy, there will be no significant changes, and the new president will continue the existing policy. This means maintaining good relations with leftist governments in Latin America, such as those in Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua, as well as partnerships with the Global South (of which Mexico is a key member) and BRICS countries, emphasizing Russia, China, and Brazil. She will strive to maintain good trade relations with the US and Canada according to the free trade agreement between the three countries (USMCA), which was established in 2018 and came into force in 2020, as a kind of NAFTA 2.0. A review of the agreement is expected in 2026. The relationship with the US will be interesting if Donald Trump comes to power, given his opposition to the green agenda.

Regardless of who will be the US president in 2025, Mexico will have to deal with the American protectionist policies introduced by Trump and continued by the Biden administration. In this regard, the relationship between Mexico and the US and Mexico and China, and Mexico’s position in the US-China trade war will be interesting to observe. Sheinbaum will have a lot of maneuvering space here. Due to its geographical location, Mexico will continue to be a key country in illegal immigration from Latin America to the US. It will have a role similar to that of Turkey between the Middle East and the European Union. Mexican authorities will be able to curb or allow waves of illegal migration to the US. Sheinbaum will need to find solutions to further improve the standard of living so that fewer Mexicans want to emigrate to the US, in order to retain domestic skilled workers.

Sheinbaum Cannot Be a Puppet of AMLO

Mexico is a country that leads the Americas in gender equality. Women have been more than well-represented in politics so far, and now a woman will finally hold the most powerful political position. Claudia Sheinbaum is an extremely successful Mexican politician whose career combines scientific expertise and political skill. Her leadership in Mexico City has shown that it is possible to combine technical knowledge with social sensitivity to address complex urban challenges. As the first woman at the helm of both Mexico City and the Mexican state, Sheinbaum has laid the foundation for future generations of women in politics. As president, she will have the opportunity to demonstrate her strengths and weaknesses. Although many see her as a shadow or a remote-controlled politician of López Obrador, there is no doubt that she will profile herself and assert her leadership over time. After all, only one person can hold the position of president. This has been demonstrated by numerous cases in Latin America where so-called faceless politicians or “puppets” like Nicolás Maduro and Lenín Moreno have established themselves as undisputed leaders.

A Seemingly Comfortable Position Does Not Allow for Relaxation

The electoral success of Morena and its partners in the parliamentary elections for Congress provides an opportunity for the left to gather a two-thirds majority needed to pass changes that would reform the Mexican political system and enable easier governance. This primarily refers to the reduced funding of the National Electoral Institute (Instituto Nacional Electoral – INE) and the structural reform of the Supreme Court (judges would be elected instead of appointed, with rigorous Senate verification). This could happen even before Sheinbaum takes office on October 1, since the new Congress will be established on September 1. It is certain that the new president will not have much time to adapt to the presidential function.

Before the elections, polls showed Sheinbaum’s rating at 67%, which is less than López Obrador’s 76% approval rate at the beginning of his term. This means that Mexicans will have less patience in waiting for results from the new president. After three years in office, anyone who collects around 3 million signatures can demand a recall referendum for Sheinbaum, a change introduced by AMLO to appease critics. In such a referendum in 2022, AMLO won with 93.4% of the vote. Given her experience and expertise, Sheinbaum should continue to successfully lead Mexico as her predecessor did. However, time will provide all the answers.

By David Hutt

Let’s start with the good news – potentially great news, in fact – for Southeast Asia: Laos could be sitting on 10 billion tons of potash, one of the three main fertilizers used in global agriculture.;

In 2022, a subsidiary of the Chinese company Asia-Potash International announced a $4.3 billion;investment;in a potash mining venture in Khammouane province. This deal grants exploration rights to 48 square kilometers for potassium ore.;

The company reckons it can start with producing 1 million metric tons of potash annually, scale up to 5 million tons by 2025 and eventually reach 7 to 10 million tons. For a comparison, Canada, the world’s largest potash producer, exported around 23 million metric tons, valued at approximately $6.6 billion, in 2023.

In 2022, Laos’s potash exports were valued at approximately $580 million,;representing;about 1.7 percent of global supply. It isn’t inconceivable that Laos will become a global player.;

Location helps Laos

Geography is key. Next door is China, the world’s largest importer of food and food inputs, and the world’s third-biggest purchaser of potash. China;imports;around 8 million metric tons each year, about half of its demand, although that is increasing.;

China is the world’s biggest producer of potatoes, which are very reliant on potassium. China’s potato heartlands – Yunnan, Guizhou and Sichuan provinces – are on Laos’ doorstep. Guangdong province, China’s main banana producer, isn’t too far away.;

There’s ample room for Laos to expand potash exports in Southeast Asia, too. Indonesia, the world’s fourth-largest potash importer,;boughtaround $2.1 billion worth in 2022, with Laos holding a 6 percent market share.;

Malaysia, the sixth-largest importer,;spent;around $1 billion on potash, with Laos having a 2 percent share. Laos is already the largest supplier of potash to Vietnam, with exports worth about $82 million in 2022.

If, for instance, Laos was to replace suppliers like Jordan and Israel and capture a 20% share of China’s potash import market, its exports could rise to around US$750-800 million, making potash Laos’ second-largest export product, after energy.;

Right now, the spot price for potassium chloride is US$307 per metric ton. So, loosely, 10 million tons exported a year would bring in around US$3 billion.;

Expectations shouldn’t be that high, though. It’s one thing for a Chinese investor to promise to produce 10 million tons a year and it’s another thing for it to actually deliver it.;

And because it’s a Chinese firm selling the goods, most of the money won’t stay in Laos. And there are already the same;complaints;as with every Chinese investment: Asia-Potash International isn’t hiring local workers.;

Geopolitics

Nonetheless, estimates vary, but there still could be between $30 million and $300 million in annual revenue for the Lao state. Almost certainly it will be towards the lower end, but it’s not to be sniffed at by the badly-indebted government.;

However, consider the geostrategic implications.;

Up until now, China hasn’t really needed Laos. It lacks the strategic importance of Cambodia, with its naval base on the Gulf of Thailand, or the trade routes offered by Myanmar, where China is developing a $7 billion port to access the Indian Ocean for oil and LNG imports from the Gulf.;

In 2022, Laos;accounted;for a mere 0.1 percent of China’s total imports; food makes up less than a tenth of that, so Laos isn’t a solution to China’s future food insecurity.;

China’s primary import from Laos is pulped paper, not energy. Instead, China constructs hydropower dams and coal-fired stations in Laos, which generate electricity sold to Thailand and Vietnam.;

Geostrategically, Laos is a useful ally for Beijing to have because of its ASEAN membership, but Vientiane holds little weight in the regional bloc.;

Should something drastic occur in Laos – such as the fall of the ruling communist party or the emergence of an anti-China government – Beijing would be displeased and Chinese investments would be at risk, but China’s national security would be unaffected.;

That situation changes if Laos becomes a significant supplier of potash. If projections are correct and Laos can produce between 7-10 million tons of potash annually, it could theoretically more than meet China’s entire import demand. That makes Laos a national security interest for Beijing.

Food security

The Chinese government is preparing itself for military conflict. It knows that in the event it launches an invasion of Taiwan or attacks a rival state in the South China Sea, the West will hammer it with economic sanctions so damaging it would make the retribution reaped on Russia look like a slap on the wrist.;

Self-sufficiency and diversification are the buzzwords. But it’s doubtful that China – arguably the country most dependent on world trade and on U.S. protection of shipping routes – could survive such sanctions.;

Even short of war, food security has long been a major concern for China., for reasons too long to go into. According to;Xi Jinping, the supreme leader, food security is the “foundation for national security.”;

Beijing is also;concerned;that its reliance on imported fertilizer inputs “could pose a major threat to its food security”. There’s no way China can achieve the food self-sufficiency that Xi wants, as was spelled out in a detailed;study;by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a U.S. thinktank.

China can domestically produce enough nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, the latter essential for phosphate-hungry rice. But almost all of China’s phosphate is produced in Xinjiang and Tibet, far away from the rice-growing Han heartland and where the local population is largely hostile to rule by Beijing.

China will remain dependent on imports of potash, which accounts for more than four-fifths of all China’s fertilizer imports. That’s why it has been trying to diversify away from Canada towards countries like Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan – and now Laos.;

In the event of a conflict and Western sanctions, China would immediately lose access to potash from Canada, the U.S., Israel and Jordan – countries that;accounted;for over half of China’s import supply in 2022 .;

Sourcing Belarussian and Russian supplies has become more unreliable since the Ukraine War, and both are in competition with one another on that front. That would leave Laos.

Possibly, this could give Vientiane leverage with Beijing. Knowing how important food inputs would be to China in the event of global sanctions, Vientiane might push for major write-offs off part of its; high national debt of 130 percent of GDP, most of which is owed to China.;

More likely, this would incentivize Beijing to exert a stronger hand over Laos; it means Beijing couldn’t tolerate anything that might affect the flow of potash. That makes the relationship much more imperial.;

David Hutt is a research fellow at the Central European Institute of Asian Studies (CEIAS) and the Southeast Asia Columnist at the Diplomat. He writes the Watching Europe In Southeast Asia newsletter. The views expressed here are his own and do not reflect the position of RFA.

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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi could be forgiven for thinking the United States has a schizoid view of his government and the world’s most populous country.

Modi’s narrow re-election this month was;greeted;in the U.S. media with petulant satisfaction that Indian voters had “woken up”, as an oped piece in the New York Times put it.

The Washington Post’s editorial board;rebuked;Modi with the headline: “In India, the voters have spoken. They do not want autocracy.”

The Post editors went on to say that Modi “will lack a free hand for further repression of civil society, imprisonment of the opposition, infiltration and takeover of democratic institutions, and persecution of Muslims.”

That is quite a withering rap sheet for a political leader who not so long ago was given the VIP treatment in Washington.

Other U.S. media outlets also sounded smug that India’s legislative elections had returned a diminished majority for Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The “shock setback” for India’s strongman would mean that his Hindu nationalist politics would be restrained and he would have to govern during his third term with more moderation and compromise.

The American media’s contempt for the 73-year-old Indian leader is a dramatic turnaround from how he was lionized by the same media only a year ago.

Back in June 2023, Modi was feted by U.S. President Joe Biden with a privileged state dinner in the White House. The Indian premier was invited to address the Congress and the media were rhapsodic in their praise for his leadership.

Back then, the Washington Post’s editors;recommended;“toasting” Modi’s India, which Biden duly did at the White House reception. Raising a glass, Biden;said: “We believe in the dignity of every citizen, and it is in America’s DNA, and I believe in India’s DNA that the whole world – the whole world has a stake in our success, both of us, and maintaining our democracies.” With trademark stumbling words, Biden added: “[This] makes us appealing partners and enables us to expand democratic institutions across, around the world.”

Modi may well wonder what happened over the past year. The Indian leader has gone from receiving the red carpet treatment to having the rug pulled from under his feet.

The difference is explained by the changing geopolitical calculation for Washington, which is not to its liking.

It is not that the Indian government under Modi has suddenly become a bad strongman who has taken to trashing democratic institutions and repressing minorities. Arguably, those tendencies have been associated with Modi since he first came to power in 2014.

The United States had long been critical of Modi’s Hindu nationalism. For more than a decade, Modi was persona non-grata in Washington. At one stage, he was even;banned;from entering the country owing to allegations that he was fanning sectarian violence against Muslims and Christians in India.

Washington’s view of Modi, however, began to warm up under the Trump administration because India was seen as a useful partner for the U.S. to counter China’s growing influence in the Asia-Pacific, a region which Washington renamed as the Indo-Pacific in part to inveigle India into its fold. To that end, the U.S. revived the Quad security alliance in 2017 with India, Japan and Australia.

The Biden administration continued the courting of India and Modi who was re-elected in 2019 for his second term.

Biden’s fawning over India culminated in the White House extravaganza for Modi last June when the U.S. media;championed;the “new heights” of U.S.-India relations. There were at the time residual complaints about India’s deteriorating democratic conditions under Modi, but such concerns were brushed aside by the sweep of media eulogizing, epitomized by Biden’s grandiloquent toasting of the U.S. and India as supposedly world-conquering democratic partners.

It was discernible though that all the American charm and indulgence was setting India up for an ulterior purpose.

In between the lines of effusive praise and celebration, the expected pay-off from India was that it would be a “bulwark” for U.S. interests against China and Russia.

As a;piece;in CNN at the time of Modi’s visit last year in Washington asked: “Will India deliver after lavish U.S. attention?”

The article noted with some prescience: “India and the U.S. may have different ambitions and visions for their ever-tightening relationship, and the possibility that Biden could end up being disappointed in the returns for his attention on Modi.”

The Indian leader certainly did receive some major sweeteners while in the U.S. Several significant military manufacturing deals were;signed;such as General Electric sharing top-secret technology for fighter jet engines.

Still, despite the zealous courting of New Delhi, over the following months, the Modi government appeared not to change its foreign policy dramatically to suit Washington’s bidding.

India has had long-held strained relations with China over border disputes and regional rivalry. Nevertheless, Modi has been careful not to antagonize Beijing. Notably, India;did not participate;in recent security drills in the Asia-Pacific along with the U.S. and other partners.

New Delhi has also maintained its strong support for the BRICS group that includes Russia, China, Brazil and other Global South nations advocating for a multipolar world not in hock to Western dominance.

This traditional policy of non-alignment by India is not what Washington wants. It seems that Modi did not heed the memo given during his splendid Washington visit. He rebuffed the American expectation of steering India towards U.S. geopolitical objectives of toeing a tougher line against China and Russia.

What seems to have intensified Washington’s exasperation with Modi is the worsening proxy war against Russia in Ukraine. After two and half years of conflict, President Vladimir Putin’s forces have gained a decisive upper hand over the NATO-backed Kiev regime. Hence, Biden and other NATO leaders have begun to desperately ramp up provocations against Moscow with recent permission for Ukraine to use Western long-range weapons to hit Russian territory.

When Modi visited Washington last June, the West was (unrealistically) confident that the Ukrainian counteroffensive underway at the time would prove to be a damaging blow to Russian forces. Western predictions of overcoming Russian lines have waned from the cruel reality that Russian weapons and superior troops numbers have decimated the Ukrainian side.

During Modi’s state trip last year, Washington’s focus was on getting India to act as a bulwark against China, not so much Russia. Modi has not delivered on either count, but the situation in Ukraine has cratered, from the NATO point of view.

Commenting on U.S. priorities last June, Richard Rossow of the Washington-based think-tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies,;said: “If the invasion went worse for Ukraine, or was destabilizing the region, the Biden administration might have chosen to reduce the intensity of engagement with India. But the United States has found that nominal support to Ukraine, with allies and partners, has been sufficient to blunt the Russian offensive…” (How wrong was that assessment!)

Rossow continued his wrongheaded assessment: “Russia’s ineffective military campaign [in Ukraine] has also underscored the fact that China presents the only real state-led threat to global security, and the United States and India are steadily deepening their partnership bilaterally and through forums like the Quad to improve the likelihood of peace and tranquility in the region. So long as this strategic relationship continues to grow, it is unlikely that a U.S. administration will press India to take a hard line on Russia.”

Washington and its NATO allies have got their expectations about Russia losing the conflict in Ukraine all badly wrong. Russia is winning decisively as the Ukrainian regime stumbles towards collapse.

This is a double whammy for the Biden administration. China and Russia are stronger than ever, and India has given little in return for all the concessions it received from Washington.

From the American viewpoint, India’s Modi has not delivered in the way he was expected to by Washington despite the latter’s fawning and concessions. New Delhi has remained committed to the BRICS multipolar group, it has not antagonized China and it has not succumbed to U.S. pressure to condemn Russia. Far from condemning Moscow, India has increased its imports of Russian oil and gas.

Now with the U.S. and NATO’s reckless bet on Ukraine defeating Russia looking like a beaten docket, Washington’s disappointment with India is taking on an acrimonious tone.

In one year, Modi’s India has gone from a geopolitical darling to a target of U.S. recrimination over alleged human rights violations and democratic backsliding. It is not so much that political conditions in India have degraded any further. It is Washington’s geopolitical calculations that have been upended. Hence the chagrined and increasingly abrasive attitude towards New Delhi from its erstwhile American partner.

• This article was published by Strategic Culture

The electric vehicle (EV) market is poised for explosive growth, with China leading the charge in production and sales. However, this dominance has hit a roadblock in the form of heavy duties imposed by the United States and the European Union (EU) on Chinese-made EVs. This unexpected turn of events raises critical questions: Why are the US and EU taking such drastic measures and what are the potential consequences?

Unfair Advantage: The Subsidy Argument

At the heart of the issue lie accusations of unfair competition. Both the US and EU allege that Chinese EV manufacturers benefit from substantial government subsidies. These subsidies can take various forms, including:;

• Direct financial assistance:;Chinese authorities provide direct cash injections to EV companies, lowering production costs and allowing them to offer more competitive pricing in foreign markets.;

• Subsidized raw materials:;China heavily subsidizes the mining and processing of lithium and other critical battery components, further reducing production costs for Chinese EV makers.;

• Research and development (R&D) support:;Generous government funding for EV R&D allows Chinese companies to innovate rapidly and potentially gain a technological edge.;

The US and EU argue that these subsidies create an uneven playing field, undercutting domestic EV industries struggling to gain a foothold. European Commission Executive Vice-President Margrethe Vestager stated that Chinese EVs were “subsidized from mine to EU harbor,” giving them an unfair advantage. The US echoed this sentiment, with President Biden citing the “threat of economic injury” to American EV producers.;

Protecting Domestic Dreams: The Rise of National Champions

Beyond economic concerns, there’s a strategic dimension to the tariff wars. Both the US and EU are aiming to nurture their own EV industries and become global leaders in the clean transportation revolution. By shielding domestic companies from cheaper Chinese competition, they hope to create an environment conducive to growth and innovation. This ambition aligns with broader industrial policy goals to create jobs, promote technological advancement, and ensure future competitiveness in the EV sector.;

The US, for instance, has ambitious plans to electrify its transportation sector and is heavily invested in building a robust domestic EV supply chain. The EU, too, has outlined its “Green Deal” strategy, aiming for carbon neutrality by 2050. A thriving domestic EV industry is crucial to achieving these goals.;

The Fallout: A Tangled Web of Consequences

The imposition of tariffs is a complex move with far-reaching consequences. Here’s a breakdown of some key potential impacts:;

• Higher Prices for Consumers:;Tariffs will likely translate to higher prices for consumers in the US and EU. This could dampen consumer enthusiasm for EVs, hindering the overall growth of the market.;

• Disrupted Supply Chains:;China is a dominant player in the EV battery supply chain.;A full-blown trade war could disrupt supply chains for EVs, which often rely on components from various countries. This could lead to production slowdowns and price hikes for consumers globally. Ultimately, such a conflict could hinder the global transition to electric vehicles, a technology crucial for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.;

• Escalating Tensions:;The trade war could exacerbate existing political and economic tensions between the US, EU, and China. This could lead to retaliatory tariffs and further strain global trade relations.;

• Innovation Chill:;A stifled market with limited competition could hinder innovation in the EV sector. Without the pressure to compete with lower-cost Chinese alternatives, domestic EV companies might be less incentivized to push boundaries in terms of technology and cost-efficiency.;

• A Trade War on Wheels?;The imposition of heavy duties by both the US and EU has sparked fears of a trade war focused on electric vehicles. Chinese retaliation is a real possibility.;Beijing has threatened to retaliate with countervailing tariffs on imports from both the US and EU. These could target a range of sectors potentially including agriculture, aviation and luxury goods. This tit-for-tat approach could escalate tensions and disrupt trade relations between these major economic powers.;

The Road Ahead: Cooperation or Collision?

The future of the EV trade war remains uncertain. Both the US and EU have expressed a willingness to negotiate with China to resolve the subsidy issue. However, finding a mutually agreeable solution will be challenging. China vehemently denies any wrongdoing and views the tariffs as protectionist measures.;

There are alternative paths forward. The US, EU, and China could explore collaborative efforts to establish fair trade practices and set global standards for EV production subsidies. This would create a level playing field and foster healthy competition ultimately benefiting consumers and accelerating the transition to clean transportation.;

Conclusion: A Crossroads for the EV Revolution

The US and EU’s decision to impose heavy duties on Chinese EVs marks a significant shift in the global EV landscape. While the stated goal is to protect domestic industries, this move comes with significant risks. The potential for higher prices, supply chain disruptions, and a stifled innovation environment could ultimately hinder the very progress these measures aim to safeguard.;

The coming months will be crucial in determining the trajectory of this trade war. Cooperation and a commitment to fair trade practices offer the best hope for a win-win scenario that benefits both consumers and the global EV revolution.

(RFE/RL) — Ukraine fired missiles and artillery at 15 areas where Russia troops were concentrated on June 14 as Russia tried to use its advantage in manpower, equipment, and air support to seize territory in eastern Ukraine, Kyiv’s General Staff said.

“Despite the intense enemy onslaught, the Ukrainian soldiers fought back hard and effectively,” the General Staff said in its late summary of the day’s fighting.

The Ukrainian military said there were 81 combat clashes during the day, while the Russian military said its troops seized about a dozen settlements, and the governor of the Belgorod region said five people were killed in attacks on the region.

In the area around Kharkiv, Russian forces supported by air power, tried to storm the positions of Ukrainian units in the Vovchansk and Tykhoy districts three times. All enemy attacks were repelled, Kyiv said.

At the same time, 10 combat clashes took place near Kupyansk, and Russian forces also tried to improve their positions in several towns in the Dnipropetrovsk region. The Ukrainian military said all enemy assaults near Sinkyvka were repulsed, while battles were still going on elsewhere.

Russian troops also attacked towns near Lyman in the Donetsk region. The General Staff described the situation as under control, saying four clashes had ended, while five were still ongoing.

The armed forces also noted that the Russian Army was “intensively” attacking in the Pokrovskiy area, where Ukrainian defenders repelled 17 attacks. At least a dozen other clashes were ongoing.

“The situation is difficult, but controlled by the defense forces,” the General Staff said. Ukrainian soldiers “are making efforts to prevent the enemy from advancing deep into Ukrainian territory.”

The claims could not be independently verified.

In the Russian region around the city of Belgorod, regional Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said Ukrainian attacks killed five people on June 14.

Gladkov said on Telegram that two bodies had been pulled from an apartment building hit by Ukrainian shelling in the border town of Shebekino.

Emergency services, quoted by news agencies, said a third body was later found in the rubble after shelling caused a stairwell to collapse.

A drone also struck a car in a village near Shebekino, killing the driver, and a woman was killed in her home when it was struck by rocket fire in the village of Oktyabrsky.

International legal team for Armenian political prisoner Ruben Vardanyan files urgent appeal with Un Special …  Armenian Weekly

Chief of Armenian Armed Forces General Staff meets with France’s Chief of Army Staff  Armenpress.am

Bob Menendez Used Prosecutor’s Job Interview to Lobby for Friend  Yahoo! Voices