Day: June 10, 2024

PORT-AU-PRINCE, haiti — Haiti’s new prime minister on Monday condemned the gang killings of three police officers on patrol in a part of the capital controlled by gang leader Jimmy “Barbecue” Cherizier. 

A group of armed men working under Cherizier ambushed a patrol vehicle from the police’s anti-gang unit in the Delmas 18 neighborhood Sunday and set it on fire, police in the Caribbean country said. 

Two officers were killed at the site and two were evacuated by reinforcements; one of them later died at a hospital. 

Prime Minister Garry Conille promised state aid for the victims’ families. Conille was sworn in this month and has yet to install his cabinet after taking power nearly three months after his predecessor, Ariel Henry, resigned. 

“This barbaric act is a direct attack on security and on [the] stability of the nation,” Conille said in a video address. “I send heartfelt condolences to the family of these officers who are gone, along with their colleagues and friends.” 

He spoke after being briefly hospitalized Saturday for what his office called “a slight illness.” 

Police union SYNAPOHA, however, said words were not enough and demanded the victims’ bodies be returned. 

Unverified videos on social media, apparently filmed by gang members, appear to show footage of the charred truck and captured firearms. 

Gang leader Cherizier later shared a video on social media in which he said police officers had gone rogue and come “to kill people in lower Delmas.” He also challenged police to recover the seized firearms if they could. 

Kenyan President William Ruto said Sunday that a long-awaited deployment of Kenyan police officers set to lead a U.N.-sanctioned international force to support Haitian police should arrive in one or two weeks, African news outlets reported. 

It remains unclear when the rest of the force — with troops from Benin, Chad, Bangladesh and the Caribbean — will land. SYNAPOHA warned at the start of this year of a rapidly shrinking and under-resourced police body. 

The international force was initially requested by Haiti’s former government in 2022 but has faced extended delays. Gangs have since increased their control over the capital, pushing hundreds of thousands from their homes and millions into hunger.

As China has continued to up the ante in the contested waters in South China Sea, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr argued that the presence of the United States was crucial to regional peace during the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, as the Southeast Asian country faces growing Chinese pressure in waters off its coastline.

Marcos said that the Philippines and other regional countries had a vision for “peace, stability, and prosperity” in the South China Sea, but it is fast being undermined, pointing out the coercive and deceptive actions in the contested zones that violated sovereign rights.

By pointing out China’s actions as dangerous and destabilising and emphasising on the stabilising presence of the US as being critical, Marcos implies that Manila is taking sides in the domain of security and defence, and sending a message to Beijing that it will continue to work towards shaping a regional response that is solid and resilient at the security realm.

In projecting the security in the South China Sea as a global issue, Marcos is projecting the persistent stance against China’s bellicose actions that have seen Filipino sailors injured, as one that is not only being confined to the enclosed sphere of Manila defending its sovereign rights alone, but one which puts the entire conventional maritime and international order based on rules and law being at stake.

The Philippines remains a strategic partner for the US, providing returns in geographical impact which has seen more military bases being set up and the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) that allows US troops to rotate through and store defence equipment and supplies.

The Shang-ri La Dialogue laid bare the growing frictions with stark display of different realities and perceptions by both China and the US, and the different responses through the different lenses of regional powers.

China has accused the US of using the Philippines as a pawn to stir up trouble in the South China Sea. The US needs an expanded fallback option in addition to the groggy Quad, and with the formation of the Squad and momentum of the Camp David Pact and Aukus, the US gets additional supporting actions by allies through the unilateral actions of bilateral defence diplomacy efforts by Japan and others, with the example of the Reciprocal Access Agreements and the Official Security Assistance involving the region.

Despite Blinken’s visit to China last month in an effort to forge closer mutual understanding and to reduce friction, Beijing’s subsequent actions to host Putin and the punishment drills against Taiwan for the inauguration speech by President Lai send a clear rebuke and retaliatory message against the US.

The systemic rivalry was made clearer during the Shangri-La Dialogue.

Seeing deeper containment efforts with the likes of the Squad and greater bilateral defence engagement with regional powers, China continues to hold its card, and the Shang-ri La Dialogue is used to present a no holds barred message and China’s perspective.

The systemic rivalry was made clearer during the Shangri-La Dialogue.US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin and China’s Defence Minister Dong Jun met in Singapore on the sidelines of Asia’s premier defence summit.

Austin reiterated the importance of freedom of navigation under international law.Dong responded by telling Austin that the US was stoking tensions through its military presence in the region. The same card is being used, while security dilemmas continue to be worsened.

The first meeting of its kind between US and Chinese defense chiefs in 18 months, hopes of restoring guardrails will not be as hopeful, even as both agreed to reopen hotlines to alleviate tensions and to prevent spiralling of conflicts.

This Dialogue came at a more precarious time with China’s massive drills around Taiwan and higher coercive actions in the South China Sea.

Lieutenant General Jing Jianfeng at the Shangri-La Dialogue stated that Beijing will not be soft on foreign interference, in responding to Austin’s speech when Austin mentioned that disputes should not be solved through punishment, in tacit reference to the punishment drills against Taiwan. 

Jing said that the US had “betrayed its promise, hollowed out the one-China principle” and armed the island.Jing also accused Taiwan’s new leader William Lai Ching-te of pushing the island towards the “abyss of disaster”.

Dong also accused Washington of sending the wrong signals to Taiwan independence forces.

In a clearer reference to the drills, PLA Lieutenant General He Lei said the recent exercise around the island was a “rehearsal” for possible combat operations against Taiwan in the future, stating that “This military exercise is the closest to actual combat for the PLA’s task forces to familiarise themselves with the battlefield environment, strengthen coordination, and improve command capabilities,”.

He further states that Beijing does not want to see Washington get involved in a war in the Taiwan Strait, “but we do have countermeasures if that happens”.

The PLA’s Eastern Theatre Command said the exercises were “punishment” for “Taiwan separatists” and a “severe warning” to outside forces intent on interference and provocation.

The PLA also accused the US of seeking to build an Asia-Pacific version of Nato to maintain its hegemony in the region, responding to Austin’s remarks about strengthening alliances across the region.

Austin reiterated that the PRC should not use Taiwan’s political transition, which is part of a normal, routine democratic process – as a pretext for coercive measures.

As in the past warnings, Dong warned Austin that the U.S. should not interfere in China’s affairs with Taiwan, accusing the US of sending a wrong signal to “separatist forces” in Taiwan.

Despite efforts by both Beijing and Washington to try to reestablish norms and guardrails, the extent of disagreements and deep layered misalignments of differences on key and sensitive segments prevent further efforts to deescalate the security dilemmas.

While Biden has always cast the rivalry as one that is of intense competition and to refrain from veering into conflict, real time realities made it difficult to set guardrails that will confine the intense rivalry within the sphere of competition alone.
In addition to that, other analysts have argued that the People’s Liberation Army drills around Taiwan were preordained, in that although Beijing is depicting them as a necessary reaction to President Lai’s comments, these are also being used as a pretext to act in such a way.

In his inaugural remarks, Lai had urged China to stop its coercion and military aggression, and said that Taiwan and China are “not subordinate” to each other.

The warning drills are a continuation of consistent pressure campaigns, where coast guard vessels have been deployed. For these drills, Beijing also is testing the water and the responses from the US and Taiwan, in testing Lai but also in giving enough space for future potential escalation in military moves.

New changes and additions to the drills last month include where coast guard ships are sent to surround Taiwan’s outlying islands, especially Kinmen and Matsu. China stopped recognizing the de facto demarcation of territorial waters in recent months, in a break from the status quo. The use of civilian platforms in this new approach, especially the use of coast guard further blurs the lines between military and civilian capacities and objectives.

The new approaches also include operations near Dongyin in the Matsu chain and that one of the restriction zones established by the PLA around Taiwan, the one east of Taiwan, was substantially closer to Taiwan’s 24 nautical mile contiguous zone than in 2022.

Interestingly, the main opposition Kuomintang, which is widely seen as China leaning, also issued a statement, calling on Beijing to “exercise restraint, avoid escalating the situation,cherish the fruits of peaceful development across the Taiwan Strait, and jointly safeguard the regional status quo.” It further added it “support all actions taken by the government of the Republic of China to safeguard national interests and condemn all actions that undermine regional stability and the status quo”.

Others have questioned why China has executed the drills now during the inauguration of Lai, and not during both of his predecessor Tsai’s inaugurations. The Pelosi effect also contributed to this, where the drills conducted by China in retaliation of Pelosi’s visit were virtually uncontested by the US, thus leaving further rooms for Beijing to build on this and to extend the red line further, in incrementally pushing for a new normal and in limiting the direct hard power responses by neighbouring powers and the US.

New power tools being used to expand regional dominance have heightened security dilemmas and sparking arms races. They have also caused systemic wariness by regional recipients who eventually will be longing for the status quo of a stable rules-based order and rule of law.

The report of the death of China’s Belt and Road Initiative [BRI] was an exaggeration, after all. Within days of the US President Joe Biden’s acerbic remark during an interview last week with the Time magazine that the BRI has “become a nuisance graveyard initiative,” a;trilateral intergovernmental agreement;to commence construction work on the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan [CKU] railway project was signed in Beijing on Thursday.;

Chinese President Xi Jinping;offered congratulations;on the trilateral intergovernmental agreement with Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan and described the CKU as “a strategic project for China’s connectivity with Central Asia, symbolising the three nations’ collaborative efforts under the Belt and Road Initiative.” Xi hailed the agreement as “a show of determination”.

The idea of such a railway project was first proposed by Uzbekistan in 1996 but it languished for over a quarter century thereafter due to the geopolitical and alliance changes in Central Asia, including reservations reportedly on the part of Moscow and Astana. China, which could unilaterally finance CKU, also lost interest and prioritised its ties with Russia and Kazakhstan.;

Principally, the failure of the three countries to reach a consensus on the railway’s route became a vexed issue with China and Uzbekistan favouring a southern route, which would represent the shorter transit route to Europe and West Asia, while Bishkek insisted on the northern route—a longer passage that would connect Kyrgyzstan’s northern and southern regions and boost its economy.;

However, the moribund project took new life following the changing geopolitics of Central Asia, as intra-regional integration processes began gaining traction, the rethink in Moscow in favour of strengthening regional connectivity in the conditions under western sanctions, etc.;

Indeed, with improved railway connectivity, it is not only the connection between China and the two Central Asian countries along the route that will be strengthened, but the interconnectivity in Central Asian region as well.;

However, in a curious reversal of roles, as Central Asia turned into a turf of the great game lately between the US on one side and Russia and China on the other, Washington began taking a dim view of the prospect of such a project to connect the railway systems of China potentially to the European railway network through Turkmenistan, Iran, and Türkiye.;;

Suffice to say, in the past two years, with renewed interest, China began viewing the 523 km long railway line — 213 kms in China, 260 kms in Kyrgyzstan, and 50 kms in Uzbekistan — optimistically as a shorter route from China to Europe and West Asia than the existing 900 km corridor that passes through the Trans-Siberian Railway in Russia, which lacks modern infrastructure with only a single non-electrified track that makes it incapable of transiting Chinese goods to Europe, and also mitigate the economic costs associated with Western sanctions on Russia.

Above all, the growing geopolitical tensions over the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea have begun posing serious concern and top priority for Beijing to establish alternate land routes to the European market.;;; ; ; ;

Without doubt, CKU has huge potential in geopolitical, geo-strategic and geo-economic terms. Succinctly put, it will complete the southern passage of the New Eurasian Land Bridge, shaping a convenient transport path from East and Southeast Asia to Central and Western Asia, Northern Africa and Europe.;

Specifically, apart from integrating Central Asian region with the wider transportation network, and connect it better to the global market, Beijing envisages that CKU could be further extended to other countries in future, such as Afghanistan.;

In fact, speaking at the signing ceremony on Thursday alongside Xi and Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov, President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev underscored that “This road will allow our countries to enter the wide markets of South Asia and the Middle East through the promising Trans-Afghan Corridor.”;

Of course, the construction of CKU, which is expected to start later this year at a cost of $8 billion, poses formidable challenges, being a trans-national project to be executed by a joint venture of between three countries in the BOT;;format. No doubt, CKU involves daunting engineering skills with its path traversing the challenging terrain of western China and Kyrgyzstan at altitudes ranging from 2,000-3500 meters and involving the construction of more than fifty tunnels and ninety bridges through Kyrgyzstan’s highest mountains.

But China has vast experience and expertise in pulling it off. Xi said the agreement signed in Beijing provided a “solid legal foundation” for the railway’s construction and it transformed the project “from a vision to a reality”.

The project feasibility study is currently being updated, following the completion of field surveys by Chinese engineers in December. Zhu Yongbiao, a professor at the Research Centre for the Belt and Road of Lanzhou University, told Global Times that construction techniques and financing pose no problems.;

The Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson stated at the;daily press briefing;in Beijing on Friday, “This important milestone was achieved thanks to the tremendous efforts of different departments and experts, as well as the personal attention and support from the leaders of the three countries.”;

The spokesperson flagged that CKU is “another testament to the importance of the Belt and Road Initiative and demonstrates the popularity of the vision for a community with a shared future for mankind in Central Asia.”

The CKU originates from the western Chinese hub of Kashgar to the Uzbek city of Andijan in Ferghana Valley, passing through;Torugart, Makmal;and Jalalabad. It connects the Soviet-era railway grid in Uzbekistan leading to Termez on the Amu Darya bordering Mazar-i-Sharif city in Afghanistan.;

Uzbekistan announced last month that the Trans-Afghan railway project is anticipated to be completed by the end of 2027, connecting Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, “facilitating crucial trade routes and bolstering regional;connectivity.” Interestingly, the Trans-Afghan Railway project has also figured in the Chinese-Pakistani documents in the past.

The;joint statement;issued after Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s visit to China last week vowed to make the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor “an exemplary project of high-quality building of Belt and Road cooperation… (and) recognised the significance of Gwadar Port as an important node in cross-regional connectivity” while also agreeing to play a constructive role “in helping Afghanistan to achieve stable development and integrate into the international community.”

Notably, in the first official recognition of the interim Taliban government by a major nation, Xi Jinping welcomed Asadullah Bilal Karimi, the Taliban-appointed Afghan ambassador, in a formal ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in January, along with envoys from Cuba, Iran, Pakistan and 38 other countries, who also presented their credentials.;

It is entirely conceivable that the time has come for the realisation of the century-old dream of a Trans-Afghan railway. Qatar reportedly has shows interest in funding the project. At a;meeting in Kazan in Februarywith Russian President Vladimir Putin, Mirziyoyev had disclosed that the Russian side had expressed interest in participating in the development of the technical justification for the project and its promotion. The Russian Deputy Prime Minister for Transport Vitaly Savelyev who had earlier visited Tashkent, attended the meeting in Kazan.

Certainly, the restoration of full relationship between Moscow and Kabul, which is imminent, will help speed up matters.;

The CKU becomes the lodestar in a phenomenal transformation of regional connectivity in Central Asia and far-flung regions surrounding it. In the current international climate, this has profound geopolitical implications for the Russian-Chinese joint/coordinated efforts to push back the US’ dual containment strategy. 

• This article was published at Indian Punchline