NPR News: 06-09-2024 9PM EDT
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Day: June 9, 2024
Signaling both continuity & change, Modi balances new and old faces. Hope and anticipation continues regarding portfolio allocation
It was a historic day, as amidst a star-studded ceremony attended by ten thousand persons drawn from all walks of life and many national and international dignitaries, Bharatiya Janata Party leader Narendra Modi took oath as the Prime Minister of India for the third consecutive time. The scorching heat did not prevent the crowds from cheering enthusiastically for Modi who read his oath in Hindi. Supporters cheered, clapped and chanted “Modi, Modi” as Modi dressed in a white kurta tunic and blue half jacket, walked the aisle to take oath.
Modi is the second PM of India, after Congress stalwart Jawaharlal Nehru, who will run three consecutive terms as Prime Minister.
In a glittering oath-taking ceremony held at the majestic Rashtrapati Bhawan ground in New Delhi, 72 leaders from BJP and constituent parties of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), were sworn into the Modi 3.0 council of ministers. These included 61 from BJP and 11 from partner allies. These 72 ministers, including 30 cabinet ministers, five with independent charge and 36 ministers of state, also took oath along with Modi.
The lush green capital city of New Delhi looked like a fortress today with security across the capital having been beefed up and Rashtrapati Bhawan particularly under three-tier security till June 11.;
It has been a tough balancing act to include representatives of the two major allies in the newly-sworn council of ministers, the two partner-parties being the Telugu Desam Party from southern state of Andhra Pradesh and the Janata Dal )United) of the eastern state of Bihar. TDP leader Chandrabanu Naidu and JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar are the two kingmakers of this government. While Naidu has been the CM of Andhra Pradesh earlier and will once again be sworn in as chief minister of divided AP tomorrow, Nitish is Bihar’s longest serving chief minister, and also holding the post for 9th term.;
The NDA was formed in May 1998 as a coalition to contest the general elections. The main aim of the NDA was to form an anti Indian National Congress coalition. It was led by the BJP, and included several regional parties.
The alliance lost 60 seats in the 2024 elections but enough to form a coalition government, a first in over 10 years. On 7 June 2024, Modi confirmed the support of 293 MPs to President Droupadi Murmu, this marking his third term as Prime Minister and his first time heading a coalition government.
The reduced majority of the BJP has provided its allies with leverage to assert their preferences in both policymaking and ministry allocations. As the largest party in the coalition, the BJP must negotiate the demands of its allies.
While the coalition partners are eyeing coveted portfolios, key ministries such as Home, Defence, Foreign Affairs, and Finance are considered non-negotiable, with the BJP planning to retain these portfolios. The party aims to maintain control over ministries that have been the Modi government’s hallmark or have received the Prime Minister’s personal attention. The portfolios are expected to be announced in a few hours.
Rajnath Singh, Amit Shah, Nitin Gadkari, Nirmala Sitharaman, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, and Piyush Goyal were among the senior ministers who took oath after Modi’s swearing-in. They are familiar names who have been in the government for the last ten years. BJP’s veteran leader and four-time Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan was also sworn into the Union Cabinet.;
Others back in Cabinet were Dharmendra Pradhan, Pralhad Joshi, Sarbananda Sonowal, Virendra Kumar, Giriraj Singh, Jyotiraditya Scindia, Ashwini Vaishnaw,; Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, Kiren Rijiju, Hardeep Singh Puri, Mansukh Mandaviya, Bhupender Yadav and G Kishan Reddy.
Top leaders from India’s neighborhood and the Indian Ocean region including Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu, Nepal Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’, Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe, Mauritius Prime Minister Pravind Kumar Jugnauth, Bhutanese PM Tshering Tobgay, Bangladesh President Sheikh Hasina and Vice-President of Seychelles Ahmed Afif were among the dignitaries and special invitees who attended the swearing-in ceremony of the prime minister and his council of ministers.
Today, African countries face major challenges in ensuring energy security. Several reports indicate Africa is experiencing a rapid population growth, rising unemployment, persistent ethnic conflicts and lack of good governance. And research further shows worsening energy crisis combined with factors mentioned are seriously constraining economic growth on the continent.
It is clear that to solve these problems a large-scale development programme is required, including a strategy based on achieving the UN sustainable development goals. Experts believe that nuclear technologies can become a driver for socio-economic development and a comprehensive solution to the systemic continent-wide problems. Others trust and argue that ‘energy mix’ as a more sustainable way out in creating the energy base for domestic utilization and for industrialization.
Energy is highly essential for aspects of large-scale development. It is clear that energy deficit is severely hampering Africa’s efforts to improve the quality of life, hindering effective industrial production. World Bank President, Ajay Banga, and his AfDB counterpart, Dr Akinwumi Adesina, have stated approximately 600 million Africans lack access to electricity (energy) and this unfortunate situation is creating significant barriers to health care, education, productivity, digital inclusivity, and ultimately job creation.
On their part, the World Bank and the African Development Bank (AfDB) are partnering to provide electricity access to, at least, 300 million people in Africa by 2030. According to Banga and Adesina, it would require an additional policy action from African governments, financing from multilateral development banks, and private sector investment to see this through. This also depends on the kind of energy to provide in Africa.
That however, leaders of African governments are keenly interested in adopting nuclear energy to end chronic power deficit but some maybe forced either to keep on postponing or completely abandon the project primarily due to lack of finance or credit guarantees.
Within the framework of 2018 BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) summit held in Johannesburg, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa told his counterpart, Vladimir Putin, at a bilateral meeting that South Africa was not ready to renew the agreement on the construction of nuclear power plants in South Africa.
Putin raised the subject of a nuclear deal at a private meeting with Ramaphosa, but his host said Pretoria could not sign such the deal for now. Ramaphosa has put nuclear expansion on the back burner since taking office as president, saying “it is too expensive” and has focused instead on election campaign pledges to revive the economy and crack down on corruption.
Ramaphosa said “We have to look at where the economy is – we have excess power and we have no money to go for a major nuclear plant building. The nuclear process has be looked at in the broad context of affordability.”
Under Jacob Zuma, South Africa championed plans to build as many as eight reactors that would generate 9,600 megawatts of energy starting from 2023 and cost as much as $84 billion – a programme critics say the country can’t simply afford and doesn’t absolutely need.
There is only one nuclear power plant on the entire African continent, namely, Koeberg nuclear power station in South Africa. Commissioned in 1984, Koeberg provides nearly 2,000 megawatts which is about 5% of installed electricity generation in South Africa.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated, as always, in an interview with the Hommes d’Afrique magazine posted to the ministry’s official website, that Russia and African countries were cooperating on high technology and Russia is highly committed to contributing towards sustainable development in Africa.
According to him, “Rosatom is considering a number of projects that are of interest to Africans, for instance the creation of a nuclear research and technology centre in Zambia. Nigeria has a similar project. There are good prospects for cooperation with Ghana, Tanzania and Ethiopia. Talks are underway on the construction of a nuclear power plant in South Africa.”
Foreign and local Russian media further reported that Russia wanted to turn nuclear energy into a major export industry. It has signed several agreements with as many as 14 African countries with no nuclear tradition, including Rwanda and Zambia, and is set to build a large nuclear plant in Egypt.
“Indeed, Rwanda has just joined the chorus by signing an MOU with the Russians to build a nuclear power plant. This is something of a joke. How will this be financed? Rwanda’s annual budget is US$3 billion. A nuclear power plant will cost not less than $9 billion which is equivalent to Rwanda’s entire Gross Domestic Product,” David Himbara, Rwandan-Canadian Professor of International Development at Canada’s Centennial College, wrote me in an emailed interview query.
Professor Himbara said that Rwandan President Paul Kagame always believed that he must validate his supposedly visionary and innovative leadership by pronouncing grand projects that rarely materialized.
Nonetheless, Ghana has also signed a Memorandum of Agreement with the State Atomic Energy Corporation of the Federation of Russia for the construction of a nuclear power plant. The plant will produce up 1,200 megawatts.
The Russian reactor will cost a minimum of $4.2 billion. The financing scheme has not been finalized. It will take about eight to ten years from site feasibility studies to commissioning of the first unit.
The International Atomic Energy Agency’s 2017 Report concluded that Ghana is still in an early phase of developing nuclear energy. So far, Ghana has enacted a comprehensive nuclear law, established an independent Nuclear Regulatory Authority.
In the case of Zambia, under the agreement that was concluded in December 2016 to build a nuclear deal worth $10 billion. Shadreck Luwita, Zambian Ambassador to the Russian Federation, informed that the processes of design, feasibility study and approvals regarding the project have almost been concluded.
The Zambian Government hopes that upon commissioning of this project, excess power generated from this plant could be made available for export to neighbouring countries under the Southern African Development Community Power Pool framework arrangement, he said.
Late February 2020, Chairperson of the Federation Council (the Upper House or the Senate), Valentina Matviyenko, headed a Russian delegation on a three-day working visit aimed at strengthening parliamentary diplomacy with Namibia and Zambia.
According to an official release from the Federation Council, the visit was within the broad framework mechanism of parliamentary consultations between Russia and African countries. The key focus are on political dialogue, economic partnership and humanitarian spheres with Namibia and Zambia.
The delegation held talks with President Edgar Lungu at State House in Lusaka, Zambia. The delegation referred to their visit “as a reciprocal visit” and emphasized unreserved commitment to strengthen political dialogue and then re-affirmed interests in broadening economic cooperation with Zambia.
There was an in-depth discussion construction of nuclear plant. Under the agreement that was concluded in December 2016 on the construction of the nuclear plant estimated at $10 billion. The processes of design, feasibility study and approvals regarding the project concluded. Russia was unprepared to make financial commitment, and Zambia lacks adequate funds to finance the project.
Matviyenko said: “Now the start of the construction of a center for nuclear science and technology has been suspended due to financial issues. I would like to say that the request submitted to the Russian president is being carefully considered by the ministries and departments. I’m confident that we will jointly find options to promote funding to roll out the construction of a center for nuclear science and technology.”
Of course, the construction of the nuclear plants will qualitatively change the economy of Zambia, not only to fully meet its electricity needs, but also to export it to other southern African countries. The Zambian government refers to it as revenue generation tool using the phrase – “this plant could make available for export to neighbouring countries under the Southern African Development Community Power Pool framework arrangement.”
In his discussion, Dr. Scott Firsing, a Research Fellow at Monash University South Africa, says Africa and the world needs nuclear, along with solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal, for cleaner energy. Africa can leapfrog outdated technology and help lead a new clean energy revolution.
He believes that “nuclear will always have a role in energy generation because it’s the best way of producing large amounts of carbon-free electricity. The key hindrance is the cost of producing nuclear energy and how best to deal with nuclear waste so as to maintain safe environment, the risk that it poses from poor handling and management.”
Professor Stephen Thomas, a Nuclear Economist from the University of Greenwich in the United Kingdom explains that African countries lack the nuclear expertise and infrastructure, Most important, they lack the financing capability. Russia claims to offer adequate finance, but that claim of preparedness to support construction of nuclear plants across Africa has not been demonstrated outside centrally planned economy.
“Nuclear power is an expensive diversion from policies that could meet the objectives of improving the reliability of electricity supplies in Africa, making power affordable for consumers and meeting environmental goals,” he wrote in an emailed interview.
Thomas added: “Nuclear is too high an economic risk for countries that cannot afford to make big mistakes. However, they must be guided by Chernobyl disaster in Ukraine and Fukushima in Japan, millions of people are still suffering from radiation and radiation related diseases till today.”
Currently, many African countries are facing energy crisis, for both domestic and industrial use. Energy poverty affects millions of their citizens. Over 600 million in Sub-Saharan Africa out of more than one billion people still do not have electricity. Industrial sector needs power for its operations and production for the newly established single continental market.
It is in this context that several African countries are exploring nuclear energy as part of the solution. Russia is on a charm offensive across Africa signing and re-signing agreements with many governments to build nuclear power plants. After the first Russia-Africa summit, it has, as an exceptional case, granted $29 billion loan to construction in Egypt based on its strategic bilateral relations. For now, it difficult to say how other African countries would finance construction of their individual plants. That compared, Francophone African leaders are bartering their natural resources for Russia to provide security and undertake various infrastructure projects. Burkina Faso’s nuclear ambitions went viral after signing memorandum of understanding, not yet an agreement, over nuclear power with Russia in 2023.
More than thirty years Russia has been pushing for post-Soviet relations, but with nuclear energy diplomacy Africans have to wait for another generation. The dreams of building nuclear plants are other words far from reality, and will definitely hold back the full realization of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and sustainable development goals under AU Agenda 2063.
The consensus among economists is that this week’s jobs report, showing that the United States added a whopping 272,000 jobs in May, will cause the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at their current high level when the Fed meets next week.
Fed officials still fear the specter of inflation. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4 percent in May from April, and 4.1 percent from a year ago.;
But it would be a mistake for the Fed to postpone reducing interest rates. Five reasons:
1. The unemployment rate for May ticked up to 4 percent for the first time since January 2022. The household survey (which is more indicative of where the economy is than the business survey) paints a picture of an economy that could still tip into recession.
2. Consumer spending (especially by lower-income consumers) is slowing.
3. Wage growth has not been a major cause of inflation over the past several years. A bigger cause has been corporate monopoly power to raise prices and keep them high. That’s been particularly true in the food and energy sectors. High interest rates won’t reduce this monopoly power.
4. The job trend isn’t as robust as some may think. For example, March’s and April’s job reports were revised downward by 15,000 jobs in all.
5. Finally, high interest rates are hurting Americans with car loans, student loans, credit-card debt, and mortgage debt. Many of these Americans have exhausted their post-pandemic savings. Most are low income. It’s unfair to put the burden of continuing to fight inflation on them.
- This article was published at Robert Reich’s Substack