Day: May 28, 2024
Georgia reclaiming Abkhazia
On May 26, Georgia‘s Independence Day, prime minister Irakli Kobakhidze promised his fellow citizens that “by 2030, together with our Abkhazian and Ossetian brothers and sisters, a united and strong Georgia should become a full member of the European family.”
I understand that throughout the years of Georgia’s aspiration to join the European Union, the declaration of restoring “territorial integrity” has become a mandatory ritual, like a toast to the homeland, which cannot be omitted.
If joining the EU, it must be with Abkhazia. If joining NATO, it’s to reclaim Abkhazia, which according to established Georgian logic, was taken by Moscow, and to protect against Russia.
However, given the current circumstances, with relations between Tbilisi and the West cooling due to the adoption of the “foreign agents” law, and serious discussions about revoking Georgia’s candidate status for EU membership, Kobakhidze’s promises now seem fantastic.
- What will Georgians choose: their past embodied by Abkhazia or a European future? Opinion
- How the adoption of the “foreign agents” bill could affect Georgian-Abkhaz relations. Opinion
- Abkhaz war veteran publicly expressed solidarity with protesters in Tbilisi
Currently, Georgia has three hypothetical options for reclaiming Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
The first option is through military means, which is a dead end. Georgia lacks the military resources for such a task, as it would not only need to deal with Abkhazia and South Ossetia but also with Russia, which guarantees their security.
The second option is a peaceful approach. However, this is unrealistic. Neither Abkhazia nor South Ossetia is willing to voluntarily reunite with Georgia under any circumstances, either in the near or long term.
Finally, the third option is the creation of a confederation. Although neither the Abkhazians nor the Ossetians favor this option, pressure from the Kremlin might achieve some results. However, there is a high chance that as soon as the authorities even hint at forming a confederation, they would be overthrown by their own citizens.
Suppose the Kremlin manages to “convince” the Abkhazians and Ossetians, and a Georgian-Abkhazian-Ossetian confederation is formed, allowing Georgia to proceed towards EU membership. Even if by 2030 Tbilisi restores its strained relations with the West, Moscow would never allow Georgia to simply take Abkhazia and South Ossetia and join the EU. If the Kremlin helps Georgia create this confederation, it would be solely to bind Georgia to itself for many years. In essence, the creation of a confederation and EU membership are mutually exclusive projects.
For the older generation of Georgians, Abkhazia is a part of their memories of times when they were young, healthy, and full of bright plans for the future.
However, for the youth, Abkhazia is just a myth, a tale retold to them over and over again. This generation has never seen Abkhazia but has already become well acquainted with Europe. Their future is tied to Europe.
Georgia has now reached a crossroads where it must choose between nostalgia for Abkhazia and the aspiration to join Europe. The authorities need to reflect this choice in their rhetoric as well.
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Azerbaijan’s embrace of progress should be a lesson for Armenia. Stubbornness leads to chaos—embrace peace and change. #SouthCaucasus
— Leyla Sariyeva (@leyanalysis) May 28, 2024