Day: May 24, 2024

Rising sea levels and urban development are accelerating coastal erosion at an alarming rate in Southern California with significant ripple effects on the region’s economy, a USC study reveals.

The study, published in Communications Earth & Environment, predicts that Southern California’s coastal living costs will surge fivefold by 2050 as a direct result of beach erosion. This erosion will require more frequent and costly beach nourishment projects to maintain the state’s treasured shorelines, consequently driving up the cost of living along the coast.

“Our study presents compelling evidence of the rapid deterioration of Southern California’s coastal landscapes,” said Essam Heggy, a geoscientist in the Ming Hsieh Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering/Electrophysics at the USC Viterbi School of Engineering and the study’s corresponding author.

“The challenges facing Southern California mirror a growing threat shared by coastal communities worldwide. The environmental and economic implications of coastal erosion reach far beyond California’s shores and demand interdisciplinary, global solutions,” he said.

Coastal erosion: Cost of living sure to surge as sandy beaches disappear

To predict future changes along California’s sandy coastlines, the researchers focused on the Gulf of Santa Catalina, which stretches over 150 miles from the Palos Verdes Peninsula in Los Angeles County to the northern tip of Baja California in Mexico.

They used a combination of historical and recent satellite images as well as advanced algorithms to analyze coastline movement and predict future erosion based on different trends and environmental factors.

The study predicts a tripling of erosion rates by 2050, increasing from an average of 1.45 meters per year to 3.18 meters by 2100. Consequently, the annual sand requirement for beach nourishment could triple by 2050, with costs rising fivefold due to the global increase in sand prices. This will exacerbate economic and logistical pressures on coastal communities.

Beach nourishment is adding sand to an eroded beach to rebuild it and create a wider barrier against waves and storms.

“Our investigation suggests that coastal problems start inland due to the rapid growth of cities along the coast, which compromise inland sediment replenishment of sandy beaches,” said Heggy, whose research focuses on understanding water evolution in Earth’s arid environments.

“As our beaches shrink, the cost of maintaining them will rise. Finding innovative solutions is key to securing a sustainable future for our shores and local economies,” he said.

Coastal erosion in California: A case study for a global problem

Coastal cities in Southern California and those in North Africa bordering the Mediterranean Sea face a common challenge: a semi-arid climate year-round coupled with the growing threats of rising sea levels and eroding shorelines.

A significant portion of Earth’s landmass, roughly 41%, falls under arid or semi-arid classifications, and these areas support over a third of the global population.

To understand this global challenge, the researchers focused on two specific locations: Corona del Mar in Orange County, Calif. — an example of the typical Southern California coastline — and Hammamet North Beach in Tunisia. Both are densely populated and share similar climates, prone to increasing droughts, flash floods and unpredictable rainfall patterns. These characteristics mirror the challenges faced by countless coastal communities worldwide.

The findings showed that the average rate of shoreline retreat in these areas varies. In Southern California, beaches are receding between 0.75 and 1.24 meters per year. In Hammamet North Beach, the retreat rate ranges from 0.21 to about 4.49 meters annually.

“While beach nourishment can temporarily combat erosion, however, it presents significant challenges for developing countries,” said Oula Amrouni, a sedimentologist at the National Institute of Marine Sciences and Technologies at the University of Carthage, Tunis, Tunisia, and one of the study’s co-authors. “The high cost of acquiring the right sand, with the specific grain size, quality and composition, and the technical complexity of extracting and laying it are major hurdles. Additionally, worsening erosion in previously stable areas compels more frequent nourishment projects, straining already limited budgets and leading to unplanned expenditures for many communities.”

A new study led by Griffith University predicts that future climate change impacts could disrupt the krill-heavy diet that humpback whales in the southern hemisphere consume. 

Dr Jasmin Groß, who conducted the study as a PhD candidate at Griffith’s Centre for Planetary Health and Food Security analysed fatty acids and stable isotopes from blubber and skin samples of five different humpback whale populations around the southern hemisphere.  

These levels were then compared to those of their primary prey item, Antarctic krill. 

The team found that although there were distinct differences in the biochemical profiles, the diet of all tested humpback whale populations was Antarctic krill, which provides a high fat content diet ideal for the migratory lifestyle of these populations, Dr Groß said.  

“The migratory lifestyle of humpback whales requires predictable ecosystem productivity, and so, we can expect that populations feeding in areas that are subject to the strongest climate change impacts are more likely to show the first signs of a departure from their high-fidelity krill diet,” she said. 

“At present, there is no evidence of a divergence from a high-fidelity krill diet, but the characteristic isotopic signal we discovered of whales feeding in productive upwelling areas or in the marginal sea-ice zone, implies that future reductions in sea-ice extent and duration, and rising ocean temperatures could impact their feeding ecology.” 

Humpback whale blubber and skin biopsies were collected in August and September 2019 in or near their respective breeding grounds off Brazil, Western and Eastern Australia, New Caledonia and Colombia.  

Krill samples were collected from feeding grounds onboard three different vessels between January and March 2019.  

Dr Groß said the importance of this study in confirming that each population followed a high-fidelity Antarctic krill diet could be used as baseline knowledge to assess the extent of climate change impacts in the feeding grounds in future studies. 

Dr. Groß’s PhD research was conducted as part of the Humpback Whale Sentinel Programme, a key surveillance initiative of the Antarctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AnMAP).  

Water scarcity will intensify with climate and socioeconomic change, disproportionately impacting populations located in the Global South. So concludes a new Utrecht University article published in Nature Climate Change, which used a state-of-the-art global water quantity and quality model to estimate clean water scarcity until the end of the century.

Humans require clean water for drinking and sanitation purposes, but also for the production of food, energy and manufactured goods. As communities and policymakers grapple with water scarcity issues on the ground, researchers at Utrecht University aim to shed light on the escalating global clean water crisis.

Current and future water scarcity

Using simulations from a state-of-the-art water quantity and quality model, the authors assess present-day and future global water scarcity. “Climate change and socioeconomic developments have multi-faceted impacts on the availability and quality of, and demands for, water resources in the future,” says lead author Dr. Edward Jones. “Changes in these three aspects are crucial for evaluating future water scarcity.”

The study estimates that 55% of the global population currently lives in areas that experience a lack of clean water in at least one month per year. “By the end of the century, this may be as high as 66%,” remarks Jones.

Strong regional differences in future water scarcity

While global water scarcity is projected to intensify in the future, both the changes and impacts will not occur equally across all world regions. Future increases in water scarcity in Western Europe and North America, for example, are concentrated in just a few months of the year – predominantly driven by water quantity aspects. Conversely, water scarcity increases in developing countries are typically more widespread in space and persist for a larger portion of the year.

Jones remarks, “Increases in future exposure are largest in the Global South. These are typically driven by a combination of rapid population and economic growth, climate change and deteriorating water quality.”

Quality: the invisible part of water scarcity

Water quality – despite being crucial for safe water use – remains an under-represented component of water scarcity assessments. “Previous assessments still predominantly focus on water quantity aspects only,” explains Jones. “Yet, the safe use of water also depends on the quality.”

Therefore, a key aim of this study was also to normalise the inclusion of water quality in water scarcity assessments – and in the design of management strategies for alleviating water scarcity.

Jones concludes, “The lack of clean water presents a systemic risk to both humans and ecosystems, which is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. Our work highlights that, alongside substantially reducing our water demands, we must place an equally strong focus on eliminating water pollution in order to turn the tide on the global water crisis.”

By Aisyah Llewellyn

Indonesian director Joko Anwar’s new horror film “Siksa Kubur” (“Grave Torture”) begins with a bang as a suicide bomber blows himself up at a bakery, killing the owners and many bystanders.

Joko has said in interviews that the dramatic opening was influenced by real-life events – one being a 2016 attack claimed by Islamic State militants that killed four civilians near a Jakarta shopping center. 

In the film released in April, the bomber is portrayed as afraid of being tortured in his grave upon burial – some Muslims believe sinners suffer such a fate – and hopes a suicide attack would help him ascend straight to heaven.

This was the second film in four months that referenced a terror attack in Indonesia. One released in December, “13 Bom di Jakarta” (“13 Bombs”), was loosely based on the attack on the Jakarta Stock Exchange in 2000 by Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), a group affiliated with al-Qaeda, which left 15 people dead

While such strikes have dwindled significantly in recent years, their violence has had an enduring impact on the psyche of many Indonesians.

And while some former militants and terrorism and risk experts credit the government for a drop in such attacks, they caution that the threat remains although channels of radicalization may have changed. 

An attack on a police station in neighboring Malaysia on May 17, in which two constables were killed, has caused consternation among security observers in both countries.   

They expressed fear that JI, which had been long dormant in Malaysia, may be resurgent because police initially said the suspect may have been a member of the group. He was shot dead by officers during the attack.

The attacker’s father, though, was a known member of JI and the whole episode took place in an area of Johor state known for having allegedly harbored the group’s members in the late 1990s. Police arrested him and four other family members

On Friday, after a week of flip-flops by the Malaysian police – at one point they took back their allegation that the suspect may be a JI member – they rearrested the suspect’s family members under a more stringent national security law. Malaysian police said they needed to investigate the family members further because they “practiced radical ideologies and the father is a JI member.”

According to the man who coordinated the 2002 Bali bombings, which killed 202 people and was blamed on JI, the militant group was left in disarray by the mid-2000s, after the Indonesian authorities clamped down on hardline groups nationwide.

“There is no official leader of JI now. There are still former senior members of the organization, but they have not been able to agree on leadership and there is no one in charge,” Ali Imron, who is serving a life sentence, told BenarNews.

“My understanding is that there was an agreement between them that JI would not continue anymore, and no longer exist as an official organization.”

The Indonesian authorities outlawed JI in 2007, following a series of devastating and deadly bomb attacks dating to 2000. 

While JI attacks may have come down, the most devastating terrorist attacks in Indonesia in recent years have been committed by members of groups inspired by the Islamic State group, including IS affiliate Jamaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD), which was founded in 2015. It has since been banned.

The group attacked a number of churches in Surabaya in 2018 and a cathedral in Makassar on the Christian festival of Palm Sunday.

In 2019, a lone attacker in Medan, who was also affiliated with JAD, detonated a bomb at the city’s police headquarters.

Still, there has not been a JAD strike since either.

That could be because of the government’s two counter-terrorism organizations, Densus 88 and BNPT, experts say.

Prior to the Bali bombings, Indonesia did not have specific anti-terrorism legislation, although this was quickly drafted and signed into law in 2003.

Also in 2003, Indonesia formed the elite Counterterrorism Detachment 88 (Densus 88) unit of the police, and received training and funding from the United States and Australia. In 2010, the government’s anti-terrorism body, the National Counterterrorism Agency (BNPT) was established.

Noor Huda Ismail, founder of the Institute for International Peace Building, told BenarNews that he doubts the perpetrator of the recent attack in Malaysia was a formal JI member. 

“But, I would not discount the possibility of a terrorist attack in Indonesia, given the latent nature of the terrorist threat in the country,” he said. 

“However, it is noteworthy that the Indonesian Detachment 88 has significantly enhanced its understanding of this threat, particularly regarding the activities of JI.”

Yet, Ismail noted that challenges still exist across the region, particularly as radicalization channels diversify.

“Despite the progress, the true challenge lies in combating online radicalization and addressing the potential for recidivism among terrorists who have been released without undergoing comprehensive rehabilitation programs,” he said.

Uday Bakhshi, an operations manager for the risk assessment company, APAC Assistance, said that while there was still a terrorist threat in Indonesia, the government appeared prepared for any attacks based on its recent successes.

“Densus 88 foiled an alleged plot to target the February general elections, and nearly 150 suspected terrorists were arrested in 2023,” he told BenarNews.

In his view, an attack in the near future in the region would be “an outlier.” 

“JI has seemingly turned away from violence, and the ISIS supporting groups have lost capabilities and relevance,” he said. 

Bali bomber Imron is not the only senior member of JI who now denounces his violent past.

Both Imron and Umar Patek, one of the bombmakers in the 2002 Bali blasts who was imprisoned for 20 years and released in 2022, have become involved in deradicalization programs created by the Indonesian authorities, as has Abu Bakar Bashir, the Indonesian cleric who founded JI in 1993 with fellow Indonesian Abdullah Sungkar. 

Bashir was released from prison in 2021 after serving two-thirds of a 15-year sentence for supporting terrorist training camps and has since spoken out about the dangers of radical ideology.

In a video statement sent to BenarNews, Bashir said he “strongly condemned” the killing of the two police officers in Malaysia and was “shocked” by the incident. 

“Absolutely, that is not the teaching of Islam. I don’t know if it was just blood-lust, or maybe the influence of the enemies of Islam who were using that young man,” he said.

He added that he wanted to advise “young Muslims” to follow the right path and not get involved in terrorism.

“Those who support Islam should do so only through dakwah (proselytization) and prayers, not through violence or bombs which are not in the teachings of Islam,” he said.

(RFE/RL) — President Vladimir Putin said on May 24 that Russia is willing to hold talks about the war in Ukraine, but questioned whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has the legitimacy to negotiate on Ukraine’s behalf.

Putin, who spoke in Minsk after meeting with authoritarian Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka, said that Zelenskiy’s five-year term in office was supposed to end on May 20.

“Of course, we are aware that the legitimacy of the current head of state has ended,” Putin said at a joint news conference with Lukashenka. “We must be completely sure that we are dealing with legitimate authorities.”

Zelenskiy was inauguraged for a five-year term on May 20, 2019. An election was to have taken place on March 31 of this year but was postponed because the country is still under martial law.

Under the Ukrainian Constitution, Zelenskiy must continue to perform his duties until a new head of state is elected.

Ukraine has been under martial law since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022 and would have to amend the law in order to hold elections during a state of war.

When the question of Zelenskiy’s legitimacy was raised earlier this week, an EU spokesman said that the European Union had no doubt about Zelenskiy’s status as leader of Ukraine, and the spokesman for UN Secretary-General António Guterres said Zelenskiy “remains…the person with whom the secretary-general communicates when he needs to contact the Ukrainian leader.”

In his comments at the joint news conference, Putin, who was reelected to a fifth term in March in an election that the United States and other Western countries did not consider free and fair, failed to acknowledge the limitations on Ukraine holding an election while the country is regularly under Russian attack.

Putin reiterated that Russia “is for negotiations on Ukraine,” but said it would be possible to return to talks “only based on today’s realities in the special operations zone.”

Zelenskiy has rejected Moscow’s preconditions, including allowing Russia to retain the territory its forces have taken thus far in the war.

An international peace conference on Ukraine is to be held in Switzerland in June to discuss Zelenskiy’s peace plan, but Russia has not been not invited. Putin has dismissed the conference’s importance.

A U.S. diplomat, asked on May 24 about potential routes for peace in Ukraine, said Ukraine’s allies don’t view Putin as interested in peace right now.

“He has chosen a path of war, and it’s important that Ukraine have the opportunity to stabilize on the battlefield,” U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James O’Brien said in a call with reporters.

“We are always interested in seeing that when Ukraine is prepared to make peace that it’s able to do so on terms that are a success for Ukraine.”

Russia and Belarus, meanwhile, have increased their ties and continue to foresee eventually forming a so-called union state.

Lukashenka and Putin held one-on-one talks before the news conference for about 45 minutes.

Putin said that he and Lukashenka discussed “issues of formation of a unified defense space,” noting that a “joint regional grouping of troops, Russian defense complexes, and tactical nuclear weapons are deployed on Belarusian territory.”

He said Russia regularly conducted exercises of nuclear forces and “now they are conducted with Belarusian allies.”

Lukashenka has given Moscow permission to deploy Russian tactical nuclear weapons and troops to in Belarus, which shares a border more than 1,000 kilometera long with Ukraine.

Lukashenka said there was nothing special about the joint training, which he said was necessary because the because the world is “unstable” and “dangerous.”

“Despite everything, Minsk and Moscow maintain the course of strengthening integration. We support each other and will support each other in all directions,” he said.

Putin arrived in Minsk on a two-day visit on the evening of May 23. It is his second foreign visit since his inauguration on May 7. His first visit to a foreign country after his inauguration was to China.

 Resignation of IDF Intel Chief Over Oct. 7 Failures Turns Hourglass for Other Israeli Defense Leaders – Israel News – Haaretz

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