How Ilham Aliyev wins the presidential election. Analysis prepared by Meydan TV
The initial exit polls following the closure of polling stations on February 7 in Azerbaijan’s early presidential elections show a landslide victory for the current President Ilham Aliyev, with 93.9% of the vote. Aliyev has already received congratulations from the presidents of Belarus, Uzbekistan, and Turkey.
The OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights described the situation in Azerbaijan during the preparation for the early presidential elections, scheduled for February 7, as marked by a lack of real competition, pressure from authorities on the media, and obstacles to monitoring by public organizations, according to its interim report dated January 31, 2024.
These presidential elections are being held in Azerbaijan on an extraordinary basis for the second time.
The first instance occurred in 2018 when elections originally scheduled for October were held in April.
Op-ed: Who’s who in the Azerbaijani presidential elections
Now, the elections, initially slated for 2025, are taking place almost a year and a half earlier, on February 7, 2024.
In 2008, Ilham Aliyev ran for president for the second time, knowing it would be his final opportunity. At that time, the Constitution prohibited individuals from being elected president more than twice. However, a year later, a referendum was conducted, abolishing this restriction.
Since 2016, the president has had the authority to unilaterally decide on early elections and to dissolve parliament.
This expanded presidential power was granted through a constitutional referendum held in 2016, which also conferred upon the president the right to dissolve parliament.
The revised constitution failed to outline the specific circumstances warranting the dissolution of parliament and the holding of early elections. Moreover, the procedures for conducting early elections remained undefined.
Another outcome of the same referendum was the extension of the presidential term from 5 to 7 years.
Additionally, the referendum established the positions of first vice president and vice president. In the event of the president’s early resignation, the first vice president assumes the presidential responsibilities until the election of a new head of state.
Since 2017, this role has been occupied by the country’s first lady, Mehriban Aliyeva.
Political reasons for early elections
This time, Ilham Aliyev justified the decision for early elections with several political considerations.
- Following the events of September 2023, when a local military operation occurred in Karabakh on September 19, a new era commenced. These elections are anticipated to conclude the previous period and mark the inception of a fresh one.
- Aliyev asserts that “since presidential elections hold paramount significance, they should be the first elections conducted nationwide.”
- Furthermore, he noted that October 2023 signifies the 20th anniversary of his presidency.
However, the opposition finds Aliyev’s reasons unconvincing.
Chairman of the National Council, Professor Jamil Hasanli, expressed:
“What defines this purported new era that Ilham Aliyev has mentioned? Have there been alterations to the Constitution or the political structure of the country? Has citizen participation in governance experienced enhancement?
Quite the opposite, the welfare of the populace has further declined, and instances of corruption in infrastructure projects in the liberated territories have been exposed. In just 2023 alone, the tally of political detainees more than doubled.”
Extraordinary presidential election scheduled in Azerbaijan. Politicians on the reasons for the decision
Karabakh has been a decisive factor in all presidential elections
The Karabakh conflict, which originated in 1988 with Armenian territorial claims, has served as the primary catalyst for political shifts in Azerbaijan over the past 33 years.
● Ayaz Mutalibov, who assumed power in 1990, lost his position two years later. The Supreme Council cited the Khojaly tragedy as the rationale for Mutalibov’s resignation from the presidency.
● In 1992, Abulfaz Elchibey took leadership of the country. In April 1993, Armenian forces occupied Kelbajar. Subsequently, a military mutiny in Ganja in June of the same year compelled Elchibey to step down from the presidency.
● During the initial months of Heydar Aliyev’s presidency, which began in 1993, six regions were seized. However, unlike his predecessors, he chose not to prolong the conflict and consented to a ceasefire. Throughout his decade-long tenure, there were no further military engagements.
The military defeat of the 1990s, the discredit of leaders from the national liberation movement, whom the populace had placed trust in, and the challenging socio-economic circumstances significantly impacted Azerbaijani society.
Election posters of presidential candidates, including the incumbent President Ilham Aliyev, are displayed in Baku ahead of the early presidential elections scheduled for February 7, 2024. (AFP)
Victory in the second Karabakh war significantly strengthened Aliyev’s position
In the 17th year of Aliyev’s son’s tenure, on September 27, 2020, a 44-day war commenced. Over the subsequent three years, Karabakh was entirely liberated from the separatists.
On the day of Shushi’s liberation, even Ali Karimli and Isa Gambar, who were staunchly opposed to him, congratulated Ilham Aliyev.
His rival in the 2003 elections, Lala Shovkat Hajiyeva, remarked, “Azerbaijan could not thrive fully without Karabakh and Shushi, and Ilham Aliyev resolved this incredibly challenging issue by rallying the nation.”
Therefore, prominent figures within the opposition and the primary adversaries of Ilham Aliyev essentially conceded that they do not perceive an alternative to him.
Former prime minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, president of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, and several Western leaders affirmed their recognition of Karabakh as an integral part of Azerbaijan.
Undoubtedly, these developments significantly influenced public sentiment towards Ilham Aliyev.
● Composer Javanshir Guliyev, who had previously gone into exile to protest against Aliyev’s regime, announced his intention to vote for him in the presidential elections on February 7, 2024.
● Singer Akif Islamzade, a former member of the opposition party Popular Front of Azerbaijan until the mid-2000s, advocated for the cancellation of elections altogether and proposed making Aliyev the perpetual president.
● Rais Rasulzade, the grandson of the founder of the 1918 Azerbaijan Democratic Republic, Mohammed Amin Rasulzade, stated that if his grandfather were alive, he would vote for Ilham Aliyev.
● Throughout the current election campaign, all presidential candidates expressed gratitude to Aliyev for the victory in Karabakh.
Given this backdrop, it is reasonable to assume that calling the elections at a time when Ilham Aliyev’s approval ratings are at an all-time high was a deliberate decision.
Therefore, as he heads into the elections, Aliyev has:
- The populace expresses gratitude towards him,
- A fragmented, weakened opposition persistently under pressure,
- Media and civil society decimated.
- “I collected cosmetics, grooming products.” Elnara Gasimova, the story of an arrest
- Abzas Media will continue its operations with a new team from abroad
- Azerbaijani delegation departs from PACE: Commentary from Baku
Now let’s take a closer look.
Ilham Aliyev and First Lady Mehriban Aliyeva in Moscow during a military parade. Photo Kremlin.ru
“Pre-election” laws on media and parties
The current pre-election political situation in Azerbaijan is colored differently than before the previous elections.
For 30 years, the politically active part of society and independent opposition media have usually faced pressure AFTER the elections, this time it was the other way around.
And the most important thing is that in 2022-2023 new laws relating to media and political parties were adopted.
Media Law
All independent journalists opposed the new media law adopted on December 30, 2021. They stated that the new law would greatly restrict the activities of the media. Director of the Turan news agency Mehman Aliyev then said that the purpose of this law is to strengthen state control over the media.
The Venice Commission of the Council of Europe, in its conclusion, categorically rejected the law “On Media” and emphasized that such a law should not be applied in a member state of the Council of Europe.
The report of the international organization “Reporters Without Borders” for 2023 also stated that the state of the press in Azerbaijan is very deplorable.
In the media freedom index compiled by the organization, Azerbaijan took 151st place among 180 countries of the world.
“From now on, not all journalists will be able to cover elections. And this in itself is a restriction of the right to access information, and will further limit the openness and transparency of the elections,” said Anar Mammadli, chairman of the Center for Election Monitoring and Democracy Education.
Law “On Political Parties”
This law was signed by Ilham Aliyev on January 11, 2023 and also caused criticism both within the country and abroad.
- Protest against the law “On political parties” held in Baku; dozens arrested
- Europe calls on Azerbaijani authorities to change law “On political parties”
The Venice Commission and the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights said in a joint opinion that “the new law introduced a number of new problematic provisions that could have a chilling effect on pluralism in the country.”
Extensive state control over the internal functioning of a political party, including the requirement to provide the state with lists of its members, is excessive. Suspension and dissolution of political parties can only be used in cases of the most serious violations of regulations and in extreme cases.”
The adoption of the laws “On Media” and “On Political Parties” did not meet the obligations on political freedoms that the Azerbaijani authorities assumed before the Council of Europe.
The Venice Commission and the OSCE Office proposed to the Azerbaijani authorities to eliminate shortcomings in the law, but this proposal was ignored.
Election arrests
● In December 2022, well-known civil activist Bakhtiyar Gadzhiev was arrested. At first he was accused of hooliganism and contempt of court.
But in June 2023, the activist was charged with new charges under the articles “illegal entrepreneurship”, “legalization of property acquired by criminal means”, “smuggling” and “use of false documents”. And in November, he was also charged with tax evasion.
● In July 2023, the chairman of the Democracy and Welfare Party, the famous economist Gubad Ibadoglu, was arrested. He was accused of counterfeiting. The economist himself connects the arrest with his political activities and research concerning construction work carried out in the liberated territories.
● On November 20, arrests of management and employees of the online publication AbzasMedia, which published high-profile investigative journalism, began. A criminal case has been opened against director Ulvi Hasanli, deputy director Muhammed Kekalov, chief editor Sevinj Vagifgyzy, reporter Nargiz Absalamova and investigative journalist Hafiz Babala, reporter Elnara Gasimova under Article 206.3.2 (smuggling committed by a group of persons by prior conspiracy).
The pension and salary accounts of Sevinj Vagifgyzy’s mother, Ulvi Hasanli’s mother and sister, and economist Togrul Veliyev, accused of collaborating with the site, were also blocked.
● On November 27, the head of the Internet channel “Kanal-13” Aziz Orujov was arrested. Initially, he was charged with “violation of the right of ownership, use or lease of a land plot.” But on December 19 he was charged again, this time with smuggling.
● On December 6, civil activist Ilhamiz Guliyev was arrested under Article 234.4.3 (production, acquisition, storage, transportation, or sale of narcotic drugs on a mass scale). Following him, journalists Teymur Kerimov and Shamo Eminov were arrested.
● On December 14, Tofig Yagublu, a member of the National Council and the Musavat Party, was arrested. He was charged under articles 178.3.2 of the Criminal Code (fraud causing major damage) and 320 (production or use of a forged document).
● The computer and personal belongings of Araz Aliyev, a founding member of the political platform “Third Republic”, a teacher at Baku State University, who was detained on December 23 and sentenced to 25 days of administrative arrest for “hooliganism,” have not yet been returned.
● At the end of January 2024, the head and presenter of his own Youtube channel, Arzu Sayadoglu, who often criticized the political situation in the country and bureaucratic arbitrariness, was detained. He was left in custody for four months.
OSCE recommendations to review the composition of election commissions have not been implemented
Even after the early presidential elections in 2018, the OSCE recommended that the Azerbaijani authorities review the composition of election commissions to increase their impartiality and public confidence in their work.
Among the priority recommendations was the decriminalization of defamation, including in online content.
But all these recommendations have not yet been implemented.
Civil society at an impasse
On the part of independent civil society, monitoring of the early elections on February 7 will be carried out only by the Alliance of Election Observers.
The Center for Election Monitoring and Democracy Training was unable to contact the CEC because it does not have registration – it was canceled back in 2008. And although in 2021 the ECHR ruled to restore registration, the Supreme Court of Azerbaijan has not yet considered this case.
the situation can be called the result of total pressure on civil society from the government about 10-12 years ago. Strict amendments made to the legislation in 2013-2014 practically put this sector out of action.
Lawyer Khalid Agayev: With a population of more than 10 million, about 4 thousand non-governmental organizations are registered in Azerbaijan. In Georgia, where about 4 million people live, more than 20 thousand NGOs operate. And in Estonia, where the population is less than 1.5 million, there are more than 34 thousand NGOs.”
In 2013 and 2014, about 40 restrictive amendments were made to the laws regulating the activities of NGOs.
While registration of commercial entities requires a maximum of three business days, registration of NGOs takes 40 days, with an additional 30 days added if further study is required.
But in practice the situation is even worse.
According to the amendments, if an NGO receives more than two written warnings or orders to eliminate violations during the year, then this organization can be liquidated by a court decision based on an application from the Ministry of Justice. A very serious fine will also be issued: more than 25 thousand manats [about $15 thousand].
“Access of NGOs to grants became almost impossible after the Cabinet of Ministers approved the “procedure for registering grant agreements” in June 2015, and then the government established “the procedure for foreign donors to obtain the right to provide grants on the territory of Azerbaijan” , says Khalid Agayev.
In May 2014, the Prosecutor General’s Office liquidated the main NGOs, opening a criminal case against them based on data from the Ministry of Justice.
“The bank accounts of the main NGOs were arrested, their leaders and employees were prohibited from leaving the country, and they were brought under investigation. Tax audits were launched and serious fines were imposed.”
These tax audits were carried out by the Resource Center for Democracy and Human Rights, the Azerbaijan Lawyers Association, the Institute of Media Law, the Institute of Peace and Democracy, the Center for Monitoring Elections and Democracy Education, the Human Rights Club, the Society for Legal Education, the Center for Democratic Journalism, the Institute for Freedom and Safety of Reporters, Center for National and International Studies, Public Association for International Cooperation of Volunteers and other organizations.
The amount of fines imposed on local NGOs amounted to more than 1 million manats [about $600 thousand].
Foreign organizations were also subject to inspection and investigation.
These include Oxfam, IREX, Chamonix International, National Institute for Democracy, World Vision, ABA CEELI, OSIAF, Friedrich Ebert Foundation, Friedrich Naumann Foundation.
The amount of tax fines imposed on foreign NGOs exceeded 3 million manats [about $1 million 800 thousand]. Many of them left the country.
Who else is running besides Ilham Aliyev
Six people entered the election race with Ilham Aliyev, who led the country for 20 years:
- Deputies Fazil Mustafa, Zahid Oruj, Gudrat Hasanguliyev and Razi Nurullayev,
- Chairman of the Great Azerbaijan Party Elshad Musayev
- Chairman of the Independent Trade Union Fuad Aliyev
Gudrat Hasanguliyev participated in all presidential elections over the past 20 years, and the total number of votes he received during this time is about 7.79%.
Zahid Oruj took part in presidential elections for the first time in 2013 and 2018. His total vote share in the two elections is 4.57%.
Two other current candidates, Fazil Mustafa and Razi Nurullayev, are running for the second time in the presidential election. Mustafa received 2.47% of the votes in the 2008 elections, Nurullayev participated in the same elections and received 0.74% of the votes.
Fuad Aliyev is also running for president for the second time. He made his first attempt in 2008, while still chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party, but received 0.78% of the vote.
Elshad Musaev is participating in presidential elections for the first time. Although, according to him, he had already put forward his candidacy in 2003, but the Central Election Commission did not register him then.
Thus, the candidates participating in the early presidential elections on February 7 received a total of 16.35% of the votes in the previous elections. This is 6 times less than what Ilham Aliyev scored in 2003 alone (76.84%)
The opposition boycotts the elections
The main opposition parties decided to boycott the elections.
PFPA Chairman Ali Karimli
It is impossible to hold elections in the current conditions. In just a few months, the number of political prisoners has doubled, in the last five years there has been no freedom of assembly, the last remnants of the media are being destroyed, the opposition is treated almost as enemies, torture has become commonplace in prisons, election commissions are under the control of the authorities, and votes are normal. are not counted.
On February 7, there will be not elections, but a performance on the theme of elections. The Popular Front is boycotting this performance and hopes that the people will not act in it either.”
The Musavat Party stated that they called on the government before the elections to create a democratic environment, release political prisoners, ensure freedom of assembly and speech, but the calls remained unanswered:
“The government made a sudden decision to hold elections without any public discussions and thereby minimized the opportunity for the political opposition to prepare for these elections.
The Classic Popular Front party adheres to a similar position, declaring that election commissions are under the complete control of the government, freedoms are violated, there are political prisoners, and all this indicates the absence of an atmosphere of democratic elections.
The Civic Unity Party also refused to participate in the February 7 elections.
Although the ReAl party does not participate in the elections, it calls on the population to go vote.
The political platform “Third Republic” also announced that it would neither nominate its own candidate nor support any of the existing ones.
Unregistered
Lawyer Namizad Safarov, Metleb Mutallimli and Sarvan Kerimov tried to nominate their candidacies for president, but the Central Election Commission did not accept their applications.
Namizad Safarov believes that too little time was allocated for collecting signatures.
Another failed candidate, Metleb Mutallimli, says that “although the authorities created conditions for nominated candidates, the CEC did not even consider these applications.”
Another candidate for nomination, Sarvan Kerimov, said that he would go to court with a claim to cancel the registration of Ilham Aliyev:
“Even before the start of the election campaign, photographs of Aliyev were posted all over the country. And on television they also campaign for him every day. All this is a violation of the Election Code. The propaganda campaign should begin 23 days before the election date, but the Azerbaijani authorities ignore this rule.”
Significantly lower financial capabilities of candidates
The election campaign started in Azerbaijan on January 15.
According to the reports on election funds submitted by the candidates, Ilham Aliyev was in the lead. His election fund received 250 thousand manats [about $147 thousand]. It is noted that these funds came from the party account.
In second place is candidate Gudrat Hasanguliyev, with about 20 thousand manats [about $12 thousand] in his fund.
The fund of self-nominated Zahid Oruj turned out to be 19 thousand manats
The financial report of candidate Fazil Mustafa contains 10 thousand manats.
Razi Nurullayev, Fuad Aliyev and Elshad Musayev have the smallest electoral fund. Of these, Fuad Aliyev indicated only 2 thousand manats [about $1,700] in his financial report.
At the same time, the chairman of the Alliance of Election Observers, Mammad Mammadzadeh, reports that for 10 minutes of airtime, the candidate must pay 18 thousand manats [about $10 thousand] daily.
“And two TV channels, respectively, need to pay 36 thousand manats. In 22 days this makes 396 thousand manats. If the candidate wants to be on three TV channels, this is already about 1 million 200 thousand manats. But this airtime is in the range of 20:00-22:00, 30 manats per second. Morning hours are a little cheaper.”
According to Mammadzade, the indicated amounts do not correspond to the election funds of not only candidates who have modest amounts in their accounts, but even the fund of the ruling party.
Without PACE and the European Court of Human Rights
On January 24, the Azerbaijani delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe made a statement and announced the decision to suspend cooperation with PACE and participation in the organization for an indefinite period.
The head of the delegation that made the statement, Samad Seyidov, linked this decision with the unfair position towards Azerbaijan, Islamophobic and Azerbaijanophobic tendencies in the organization.
Prior to this, on January 25, it was decided to deprive the Azerbaijani delegation of voting rights until the January 2025 PACE session.
On February 1, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev spoke quite harshly on this issue at a meeting with the Secretary General of the Inter-Parliamentary Union Martin Chungong. Aliyev said: “The rights of the Azerbaijani delegation must be restored. If the rights of the delegation are not restored, Azerbaijan will reconsider the issue of participation in the Council of Europe and the European Court of Human Rights.”