Armenia to accept Baku’s demands on transit, border delimitation issues – Stratfor Trend News Agency
Day: January 8, 2024
A clip from the 1990 movie Home Alone where the lead character purchases groceries, household goods, and toys recently went viral because he paid a total of $19.83 whereas today the same purchase would cost over three times as much. Ironically, while this evidence of the Federal Reserve’s failure to maintain the dollar’s value was going viral, stocks rose because investors believed the Fed had successfully engineered a “soft landing” by bringing down price inflation without causing a recession and would soon begin reducing interest rates.
Then, stocks fell at the beginning of the year when the release of the notes of the Federal Reserve Board’s last meeting suggested the Fed would not hurry rate cuts. The likelihood of a delay in cutting rates was further increased by a “positive” December Jobs report.
The jobs report did show unemployment remaining low and wages slightly increasing, but the news was not all positive. One of the report’s most troubling items is that a top source of increased wages is government. An increase in the salaries of government employees also increases government debt, which will have to be paid for by taxes. Since tax increases are unpopular, the government relies on the Federal Reserve to do the dirty work by purchasing federal debt instruments and thus creating more inflation. This inflation tax is the worst of all taxes because it is regressive and hidden.
If the Fed allowed interest rates to increase to anywhere near what they would likely be in a free market, interest rate payments on the federal debt would rise to a level causing a financial crisis. Even though the federal government will soon spend more on interest on the federal debt than on the Pentagon and the military-industrial complex, few in DC are serious about cutting spending. Federal debt increased by one trillion dollars from mid-September to the beginning of the new year. It is expected to increase by around another trillion dollars by the end of March! To put this in perspective, consider that the federal debt did not reach a trillion dollars until 1981 — almost two hundred years after the Constitution was ratified.
Continuing increases in federal debt and Federal Reserve created inflation will lead to economic crisis caused by a rejection of the dollar’s world reserve currency status. There is already resentment over the US government’s use of the dollar’s reserve status to support US sanctions This is why Russia and Iran recently signed a deal to trade in their own currencies rather than in dollars and Russia is no longer accepting dollars for its oil.
President Biden has kept his promise to refrain from criticizing the Fed’s conduct of monetary policy. In contrast, his predecessor regularly took to Twitter to lambaste the central bank. This means the Fed will likely try to help President Biden by trying to keep interest rates low enough to not increase unemployment yet high enough to not increase price inflation.
While Donald Trump is more likely than Joe Biden to challenge the deep state and neoconservative foreign policy, the truth is neither Biden nor Trump will seek to reduce spending. Unless a critical mass of Americans demand an end to the welfare-warfare state and the fiat money system, the soft landing sought by the Fed and the politicians will turn into a hard crash.
This article was published by RonPaul Institute
In part two of this series of “Ethiopia Losing its way,” we noted that “the region would go once again into a new cycle of violence which it does not need.” The controversy of the matter is not one of leasing of a port. Some of the ports of Somalia are already managed by other countries and they include the port of Mogadishu, which is currently managed by a Turkish company and the port of Berbera, which is managed by a UAE company.
It is, indeed, an attempt of acquisition of a region of Somaliland by Ethiopia through a dubious process of which, even the administration of Somaliland, let alone Somalia, the sovereign owning nation, is not aware and unprepared for. Ethiopia has been whining, as always, of lack of access to a sea forgetting that it never had access to a sea except for a brief period during which Eritrea was infused through, again a dubious process, into Ethiopia, and which gave rise to the thirty-some war of liberation by Eritreans which ended in its independence in 1993.
The region, although inhabited by the same group of people, has always been divided into the highland people and the lowland people and respect of the two groups were always mutual. Each, however, stayed in its turf and attempts by one or the other to take over the another’s territory either through deception or force always ended in vain and failure. The case of Eritrea or the attempt of Somalia to take back the Somali State in Ethiopia are but prime examples of the recent such attempts.
The most disheartening of the current attempt of the Ethiopian Administration to find its way into the sea is the propagation of an MOU, which entices a weak partner (a small group of men and women in Somaliland not involving its own citizenry and population and other important parties within the region including its own ministers) desperate for recognition and willing to pay/or give away anything to earn wrongfully a fistful of dollars, since they know that their time of stewardship of Somaliland is over, and promises recognition of Somaliland in some indefinite time in the future.
The Ethiopian Administration, of course, made a big error, in its assessment of the situation. They assumed that the Somali quarrels have reached a point of no return to Somali-ness. How wrong is the Ethiopian Administration is this regard! It has brought back to live the Somali self and the Somali spirit and the Somali soul. The Ethiopian Administration forgot that Somalia is the only country in Africa which made its borders in 1960 and overruled the colonial borders unlike the rest of Africa. Its central governance died in the process of making further changes to those borders when it attempted to take back the Somali State in Ethiopia in the last century.
In its recent troubled history, Somalia and Somalis were, indeed, prepared to forgo the ways of the old, and the antagonisms that prevailed and they were prepared to live at peace with Ethiopia and Ethiopians. The old ideologies of separateness and discords were being dumped and the people of the Horn of Africa States were prepared to live with each other, trade with each other and be as good neighbors as they can be.
Alas! The new Ethiopian Administration saw weakness in this closer relations on the part of Somalia and Somalis. The new Administration forgot that Somalis are organized as clans who may live in distant lands but would come to rescue each other in times of trouble. The Ethiopian administration, indeed, forgot that Somalis are some sixty million strong, some of whom who live at its doors and in the power corridors of his administration, while others live in the seats of most powers in the world and that they have a say in the decision-making processes of many countries. The Ethiopian administration further forgot that Somalis are in the armies of the most powerful countries of the world and some countries even name some of their regiments after Somalis, like the Somali battalions in Ukraine. The Administration, indeed, forgot that a third of Ethiopia is actually a Somali territory and that Somalis constitute a large part of some twenty-five to thirty million people in his own 120 million i.e. between 20% to 25% of its own population. No sensible administration as weak as Ethiopia with its own internal strives and external pressures, embarks on interfering in a neighboring nation, like Somalia.
The actions of Ethiopia in this new 2024 has thankfully galvanized the Somali and reminded them of their place in this world, their country and their seas and lands and the social media outburst is a better presenter of this than we could ever do in a few lines. Somalia was one of those few countries that did not ratify the African border resolution of 1964 in Cairo, Egypt and considered many parts of the Horn of Africa, inhabited by Somalis as part of its territory and to be reclaimed. Since then, it has accepted Djibouti (Ex-French Somaliland) as a separate state and came to live with the Somali State of Ethiopia as part of Ethiopia and the NFD of Kenya as part of that country.
This new attempt to break up the country is seen by Somalis as an afront to its existence and triggers a giant sleeping lion to reclaim its turf. Did the Ethiopia Administration help the peace of the region and the world, for definitely other powers would get involved such as the UAE, the fly that must fall into every trouble spot in West Asia and Africa and even in other parts of the world? Egypt and Turkey, and of course the big powers like the United States, the UK, France, Russia and China would also be involved. Hasn’t the Ethiopian Administration only caused more chaos in the region adding to its own woes in the Amhara State, in the Benishangul State and in the Tigray State and, in its won turf, the Oromia state, and others?
The 2024 actions of the Ethiopian Administration were probably designed to appease the rising anger against it by its own population, but it has backfired on it as most nations of the world do respect the sanctity and sovereignty of Somalia despite its fractured governing system, which it has been working on and with success for some years amending to reconstitute itself. The wrong aspiration of Ethiopia to take over other people’s lands and seas could not be as wrong as anything could be, in this twenty first century, when Africa and especially the Horn of Africa States were supposed to be closer together and cooperating. A few bucks from that troubled country in West Asia may have been the trigger of this wrong policy and would not help it appease its own population. Was this also triggered by the want to obtain un pugno di dollari using that 1964 film of Sergio de Leone before the FANO arrives in Addis Ababa. Ethiopia must be losing its way!
The World Economic Forum today launched the Global Cooperation Barometer to measure the state of global cooperation. The barometer indicates that global cooperation was resilient in multiple dimensions from 2012 until 2020 but overall cooperation declined by 2% from 2020 to 2022.
The Global Cooperation Barometer, developed in collaboration with McKinsey & Company, uses 42 indicators to measure five pillars of global cooperation between 2012 and 2022: trade and capital; innovation and technology; climate and natural capital; health and wellness; and peace and security.
The barometer indicates that global cooperation showed signs of strength during the years measured in pillars such as trade and capital, innovation and technology, and climate and natural capital. However, it also reflects the significant challenges the world has faced in the past three years, including reversals in global health cooperation and sharp increases in violent conflict, shown through declines in the barometer’s health and wellness and peace and security pillars.
The barometer release follows a year that was the hottest on record and saw escalating levels of conflict worldwide, but that also brought progress on climate action, trade agreements and innovation.
“The greatest challenges – and the most promising opportunities – for our planet, societies and economies are not bound by borders, which means the only way to address them is through cooperation,” said Børge Brende, President, World Economic Forum. “What the barometer shows is that cooperation on many issues is possible, even in the midst of competition and confrontation. In other words, leaders can work together despite not seeing eye-to-eye on everything.”
“It’s clear that on some dimensions the world has become increasingly divided, yet the barometer shows that when you look at the full picture, global cooperation has remained surprisingly robust over the last decade,” said Bob Sternfels, Global Managing Partner, McKinsey & Company. “We’ve seen progress in collaboration across multiple areas, with special cause for optimism on climate and nature and breakthroughs in frontier technologies that draw on global contributions to innovation.”
The Global Cooperation Barometer’s accompanying report, also released today, presents a series of recommendations for business and government leaders, including identifying opportunities to deepen public-private partnerships in areas where they have critical operations and shared interests (e.g., R&D, harmonized regulation of AI and emerging technology). In addition, leaders should reimagine cooperation and practise “coopetition” (finding opportunities for cooperation despite broader competitive positions) and also use cooperation to beget cooperation, using instances of cooperation to not only advance interests in a specific area but also as an opportunity to deepen trust and explore where other alignment may exist.
Companies and countries that identify robust cooperative arrangements are more likely to be more resilient – not only able to absorb a supply disruption but also to bounce back better.
TotalEnergies announced Monday that Libra Consortium has taken the final investment decision to develop an innovative natural gas and CO2 separation and reinjection facility for the Mero field in the Brazilian deep offshore pre-salt.
This pilot unit, using a pioneer high pressure subsea separation technology (HISEP®), will separate oil from CO2-rich gas at the bottom of the ocean and reinject the gas directly into the reservoir. This technology has the potential to reduce the amount of gas sent to the topside FPSO, thus enabling to reduce the GHG emissions intensity while increasing the field production capacity.
This innovation is part of the Libra Consortium’s research and development programs. The HISEP® subsea separation pilot unit will be connected to the Marechal Duque de Caxias FPSO (Mero 3 project), which is currently under construction.
“TotalEnergies is proud to participate to the development of this new technology in the Mero field. In addition to its benefits in Brazil, it should find applications for other projects within the Company. Such innovation fits with TotalEnergies’ approach to develop its businesses while reducing its emissions and costs, to improve its competitiveness in a sustainable way”, said Namita Shah, President, OneTech at TotalEnergies.
Mero is a unitized field, operated by Petrobras (38.6%), in partnership with TotalEnergies (19.3%), Shell Brasil (19.3%), CNPC (9.65%), CNOOC (9.65%) and Pré-Sal Petróleo S.A (PPSA) (3.5%).
In October 2023, Pakistan decided to expatriate all illegal immigrant on its soil. A majority of these include Afghan immigrant who have been fleeing from war, lack of opportunities and oppression in their country since 1979 when former USSR invaded Afghanistan.
Since the announcement of Pakistan’s decision there has been a lot of hue and cry in various local, regional and global diplomatic and media circles. Pakistan has been accused of being indifferent and insensitive towards Afghan immigrants considering the plight of war torn Afghanistan where there are no opportunities for these expatriated people.
Hence, it is prudent to dissect this issue to cut through the clutter of exponential level of disinformation being spread about it. Some facts must be put to the fore for complete understanding of Pakistan’s latest decision about expatriation of illegal Afghan immigrant.
Pakistan has been home of 3.7 million Afghan nationals and Pakistan had to accommodate these millions of homeless people where global contributions were not adequate as this refugees population was to be provided with all basic social services along with shelter and food. UN appreciated Pakistan’s contribution over the years despite the fact that the country never signed the 1951 Convention on Refugees.
Pakistan and UNHCR celebrated 25 years of joint efforts for the rehabilitation and support of Afghan refugees. A special report “Searching for Solutions – 25 years of UNHCR-Pakistan cooperation on Afghan Refugees” was issued on this occasion. The UN report quoted about Pakistan that “it honoured its spirit and hosted millions of Afghans who fled the wars in their homeland.” Hosting legal refugees and illegal immigrants for more than 4 decades is a commendable act of humanity & Pakistan has gracefully shouldered this burden.
Pakistan began a registration process of these refugees after 1998 and a major drive in this effort came around 2006 when Pakistan and UNHCR entered into a new agreement in Islamabad to extend the date of registration for Afghan refugees. Out of 3.7 million, only 1.3 million Afghan refugees were registered and were given Proof of Registration (PoR) cards. Around 0.88 million refugees were given one time Afghanistan Citizen Card (ACC).
Understanding these historic dynamics is important to clear the artificial fog of uncertainty about Pakistan’s presumed policy shift towards Afghan refugees. Fact is, Pakistan’s policy towards legal Afghan refugees remain the same. They will continue to be in Pakistan along with access to all social services as any other Pakistani had. Pakistan is only deporting those 1.7 million who possess neither PoR nor ACC and living totally illegally on its soil. No country in the world allowed this to happen for this long. Deportation of aliens by host countries is a normal practice. In 2023 alone Iran, Turkey, the US & India collectively deported over 100,000 Afghan refugees and Pakistan is not an exception.
This is the reality that is absent from this uncalled for criticism on Pakistan regarding its treatment of Afghan nationals. All speculations in this regard as futile attempts to garner attention on social media or to sow the seeds of discord between two neighboring countries that have historic religious and cultural ties.
Fact is Over years, hosting a large refugee population esp with an unauthorized status has created opportunities for illegal activities & other security risks detrimental to Pakistan & its citizens. Unfortunately Afghan nationals have been a root cause for so many ills in Pakistan.
There are numerous credible intelligence reports that Afghan nationals are still joining TTP and ISKP ranks against the decree and instructions of the supreme Afghan commander Hibatullah Akhundzada in a clear display of disobedience. It has been investigated that in 2023 alone, Afghan citizens were involved in 14 out of 24 terrorist incidents in Pakistan which is 58% of role in such attacks. These alarming statistics justifies Pakistan’s decision about illegal Afghan immigrants from security perspective as well.
It is unfortunate that more than 4 decades of generosity and goodwill of have not been preserved by the IAG & its people. The reaction from Kabul in this regard was completely unwarranted one. It gave an impression that as if Pakistan is targeting Afghan citizens on its soil. Nothing can be far from truth than this. Fact is Pakistan is neither against Afghans nor against Pushtuns but only against illegal immigrants of any nationality. This is a rightful demand of Pakistan according of international norms and the fact that decision is not targeted against Afghan refugees, rather it’s against illegal foreigners (aliens) must be suffice to dispel this impression.
Pakistan remains in contact with Afghan authorities and will continue to engage with them on all matters of bilateral interest, including the safe return of the illegal Afghan immigrants.
Pakistan’s policy towards Afghan refugees with legal status remains unchanged and Pakistan will continue to play its role as a responsible state in this regard as it has done for so many years. All criticism on the recent decision is misplaced and carries ulterior motives contradicting historic facts and current realities.