Will Azerbaijan start a war with Armenia?
“In 2020, Turkish-Azerbaijani military exercises started in July [three months before the Karabakh war began] and followed one after another. Turkish officers and equipment were not withdrawn from Azerbaijan, and the situation was transformed into a war. We cannot yet say that the same scenario will be used now,” military expert Leonid Nersisyan told JAMnews, commenting on the upcoming Turkish-Azerbaijani military exercises in close proximity to Armenia’s borders.
He believes that it is necessary to follow their progress, to understand how long they will last. At the same time, he notes that this time there will be no need to hold long military exercises like in 2020. He explains that officers of the Turkish army have long been integrated into the Azerbaijani army.
In particular, the de facto chief of general staff of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces, according to him, is Turkish officer Bakhtiyar Ersay, who was deputy commander of the Turkish Army. However, Ersay officially holds the position of advisor to the Defense Minister.
The exercise is dedicated to the 100th anniversary of the Republic of Turkey
On October 23-25, tactical military exercises “Mustafa Kemal Ataturk-2023” will be held in Baku, Nakhichevan and the “liberated territories”, i.e. the territories of the former NKR. They are dedicated to the 100th anniversary of the Republic of Turkey. Aviation will also take part, and F-16s from the Turkish Air Force have already arrived in Azerbaijan.
The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry reports that the main purpose of the exercises is “to ensure combat coherence in the interaction of troops, improve management, exchange of experience and increase the professionalism of personnel”.
Prior to the exercise, the special forces of the Azerbaijani Navy took part in the two-day military exercise “Erciyes-2023” in the Turkish city of Kayseri. They involved 652 soldiers, and 354 types of equipment and weapons.
Comment
Regardless of the military exercises and their possible consequences, military expert Leonid Nersisyan believes a new escalation on Armenia’s borders is possible.
He says that large-scale military actions are more likely, but on a small territory and within a limited timeframe. He recalls that Azerbaijan has already carried out a similar invasion of Armenia’s sovereign territory in September 2022. Now also, according to the expert, military actions lasting 1-2 days in some target direction for Azerbaijan are possible:
“This is more likely than an attempt to occupy Syunik [Armenia’s southern border region], which could lead to incomprehensible, unforeseen scenarios that Azerbaijan will not be able to calculate before the attack.”
Moreover, he believes that the invasion will not necessarily be in the direction of Syunik, the so-called “Zangezur corridor” that Azerbaijan demands through Armenian territory. It may well be, according to Nersisyan, also in the direction of the town of Jermuk in Vayots Dzor province, or the town of Vardenis in Gegharkunik province:
“If in two days they can approach, for example, the city of Goris and be at a distance of half a kilometer or one kilometer, they will already go to negotiations from this position. And they will try to get some concessions from Armenia regarding the same ‘Zangezur corridor’”.
This is a road road that would connect Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhichevan. The Armenian authorities have repeatedly stated that they are ready to unblock regional communications, but categorically disagree with the term “corridor”. They explain that it implies the loss of sovereign control over this territory.
The military expert believes that an invasion of any major city near the border will have a heavy psychological impact in Armenia. Baku will try to demonstrate again that the Armenian army cannot resist the Azerbaijani army.
He is also convinced that “there will be no special reaction from the international community to the escalation that has been going on for a couple of days”.
According to him, Azerbaijan has several goals: “Zangezur corridor”, enclaves in Tavush region, and the “return of Azerbaijani refugees to Armenia”. He considers the realization of the last point the least probable of all.
Nersisyan emphasizes that diplomatic processes are very important for leveling the probability of military action, but they are not enough.
“Diplomatic efforts must be backed up by military force. The most important factor is reforming the army, increasing its combat capability.”
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Will Azerbaijan start a war with Armenia?
